Wed Jan 19 10:09am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Rodgers could repeat big game
I sure hope the games this weekend are more entertaining than last week. It has to, right? And on paper, these games sure seems like some good ones. I am having a hard time picking all four. I really think all teams playing this weekend could win, including the road teams. This should make for some great football. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
I would temper my expectations for Derrick Henry if he plays this week. He is returning from a major foot injury and I would look for the Titans to ease him into action after his long layoff. I think it will be more of a timeshare with D’Onta Foreman. And if the Titans win, Henry might be unleashed more the following week.
I’m not sure what the heck happened got Kyler Murray last week. He was awful. He looked rattled and played like a rookie in his first NFL game. It was a disturbing performance. Murray is going to have a lot of doubters going forward until he wins a big game on the big stage. He needs to let the game slow down and make much better decisions. His interception in his end zone was as bad as it gets. Here is to hoping he can put that one behind him and learn from hit. He certainly has the ability to be one of the best quarterbacks in football.
The Cowboys head-scratching quarterback draw as time was running out is going to be examined all offseason. Head coach Mike McCarthy has had a lot of time management issues over the years, though, so this strange play call fits his resume. I don’t think the Cowboys will fire him over this, but he is going to be on a real short leash going forward. And if the Cowboys lose both coordinators this offseason, which is possible, there is going to be even more pressure on McCarthy. He is not in a good spot.
I think Jimmy Garoppolo proved last week why the 49ers took a quarterback in last year’s draft. He has all the tools but just makes some costly mistakes at key times. The 49ers were in control of that game last weekend until Garoppolo threw a terrible pick six, putting the Cowboys right back into the game. He is likely going to be starting somewhere next year, but expect more up and down production in that starting role.
There are rumors swirling the Vikings are going to shop Kirk Cousins this offseason. I know he can play poorly at bad times, but his overall production is really good. If I were the Vikings, I would hold onto him. But if he is dealt, I think the Broncos would be a great fit. I think Denver is setup similar to the Vikings with a good back and two top-notch receivers. Cousins could be a huge upgrade for the Broncos and help those young receivers get a lot better in a hurry. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
There are a lot of quarterbacks that are making a strong case to be ranked first overall next season. I don’t think there is a clear-cut favorite, showing how good the position is right now. Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are my top candidates to rank first for 2022. And I’m not leaning towards any of them at the moment. I even left out Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers, who I think you could make a case for first overall. This position is crazy deep right now.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals. Chase hit the 100-yard mark in his first playoff game, catching nine passes for 116 yards on 12 targets. He has 100-yard games three of four and double-digit targets three of those games. He is getting a ton of looks and producing big numbers with all those chances. Expect more of the same this week against the Titans, a team that allowed the second most fantasy points to receiver curing the regular season.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Rodgers played at an MVP level once again this season, finishing with 40 total touchdowns to just four interceptions. He has at least 22 fantasy points six of his last seven games. He is setup for another big game against the 49ers this week. In Week 3 against San Francisco, Rodgers was 23-of-33 for 261 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. He scored 22.1 fantasy points.
Titans rushing game. It looks like Derrick Henry has a chance to return this week. He might be eased into action in his first game back in a long time, but you have to like his potential if he gets double-digit touches. He gets a Bengals defense that allowed the 11th most fantasy points to running backs during the regular season. D’Onta Foreman also is a good play, having played very well in a lead role for the Titans. Foreman has 100-yard games three of six. He also has touchdowns three of those games.
Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon has not done a whole lot in recent weeks. He has fewer than 70-rushing yards six straight games. He has less than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. It could be more tough sledding for him this week against a Titans team that is bad against the pass but good against the run. The Titans allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and ranked second overall against the run.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Hill was banged up late in the year, causing his numbers to slip a little. He has fewer than 60 yards four straight games and five of seven. He did find the end zone last week but had just 57 yards. He still isn’t making those big plays just yet. Hill is a guy you have to play but it might be another ho-hum game for him against the Bills. He had seven receptions for 63 yards against the Bills in Week 5. Buffalo allowed the fewest fantasy points to receiver this season.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. Garoppolo led his team to a road win last week but was a little shaky in victory. He didn’t even throw for 200 yards and failed to score a touchdown. He has not topped 20 fantasy points since Week 14. He is not a recommended fantasy play on the road against a Packers team that was 10th overall against the pass.
Van Jefferson, WR, Rams. Jefferson caught just a pass last week but it was a big one, gaming 41 yards. He has made a lot of big plays this year, having four games with 15-plus fantasy points. With the Bucs focusing on stopping Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jefferson could get some favorable coverages. It would not surprise to see him make some big plays in the passing game. The Bucs were just 21st against the pass this season.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis actually led the Bills in snaps last week at receiver, playing 71 percent of the snaps. He scored a touchdown, catching two passes for 41 yards on three targets. He has been getting more and more playing time as the season progressed and has turned into top red-zone target for the Bills. He has a chance to score again this week in what should be a high-scoring game. The Chiefs allowed the 12th most fantasy points to receivers during the regular season.
Anthony Firkser, TE, Titans. Firkser did not have the breakout season many expected, but did finally show some signs of life late in the year. He had touchdowns each of his last two games, scoring at least 11 fantasy points each of those games. Firkser had double-digit fantasy points three of his last seven games. He might find the end zone again this week against the Bengals, a team that has struggled against tight ends. Cincinnati allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Titans, Rams/Bucs, Bills/Chiefs.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at email@example.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
The New York Jets reached an agreement with first-round wide receiver Garrett Wilson on a four-year, fully guaranteed $20.55 million deal on Wednesday, according to a source. The Jets now have all three of their first-round picks under contract. Wilson went 10th overall to the Jets in this year's draft after recording 143 catches for 2,213 yards and 23 touchdowns in his time in Ohio State on 207 targets. The 21-year-old could struggle against more physical cornerbacks at the next level, but his athleticism and elite speed cannot be ignored. The Jets are hoping that Wilson can be a big-play threat immediately for second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. The rookie wideout has plenty of upside, but he could be inconsistent in his first NFL season while fighting for targets alongside Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios.
The Cincinnati Bengals agreed to terms with first-round Michigan defensive back Daxton Hill on a four-year, fully guaranteed rookie deal on Wednesday, according to a source. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Hill was the 31st overall pick of the first round and mostly played safety in college, but he has the athleticism to play cornerback in the NFL. The 21-year-old could be an immediate upgrade over Eli Apple in the Bengals secondary in 2022 and beyond.
Former New York Giants Pro Bowl cornerback James Bradberry agreed to terms with the Philadelphia Eagles on a one-year deal for $10 million on Wednesday, according to sources. It's a big-time post-draft addition for the Eagles secondary, and Bradberry will stay in the NFC East in 2022. The New York Giants released the 28-year-old just over a week ago, and it predictably didn't take the Pro Bowler long to find a new home. The Eagles didn't address cornerback in the draft, so Bradberry is a much-needed addition to the position. In his two seasons with New York, Bradberry had 81 solo tackles, seven interceptions, 35 passes defensed, two forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries in 32 games (31 starts).
Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook could be more involved in the passing game this year, as he lined up in bunch wide receiver sets during organized team activities. "I don't want to just sit up here and tell y'all everything," Cook said. "We've got Green Bay Week 1, so we're gonna wait and see." It could just be something the new coaching staff is tinkering with, or it could be something the Vikings plan on unveiling in a bigger fashion come the regular season. The 26-year-old could be facing a suspension this year, but when he's available, he should be a no-doubt RB1 with even more appeal for fantasy managers in an offense that should be trending more towards the pass under new head coach Kevin O'Connell.
The San Francisco 49ers signed free-agent tight end Troy Fumagalli to an undisclosed one-year deal on Tuesday and released rookie tight end Garrett Walston in a corresponding move. Fumagalli was the longest-tenured NFL veteran at the team's rookie minicamp last weekend on a tryout basis. The 27-year-old was a fifth-round pick by the Denver Broncos in 2018 out of Wisconsin, and he last played for Denver in 2020, when he had eight receptions on 15 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown in eight games (no starts). He missed all of last season with an undisclosed injury and has just 14 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns in two NFL seasons. Fumagalli will provide depth behind tight ends George Kittle, Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley.
An MRI confirmed that free-agent running back Tarik Cohen (Achilles), who hasn't played in the NFL since he tore his ACL in Week 3 of the 2020 season, ruptured his Achilles while live streaming a training session, according to a source. It's a tough break for the 26-year-old, who will most likely miss most, if not all, of the 2022 season. Cohen was a first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler in 2018 with the Chicago Bears in his second NFL season, and he caught a career-high 79 passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns on 104 targets in 2019, but his career has been derailed by injuries since 2020.
Updating a previous report, free-agent RB Tarik Cohen (Achilles) suffered a torn Achilles' tendon during his workout Tuesday, May 17.
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Jalen Tolbert has agreed to a four-year contract. The third-round rookie could be a legitimate threat early in the season. Michael Gallup (knee) is still recovering from an ACL injury, so Tolbert should see a decent amount of snaps. He finished with 82 receptions, 1,474 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns in 12 games during his final year at South Alabama. Tolbert sounds like someone who is worth snagging as a second or third round dynasty stash.
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride has agreed to a four-year contract. It sounds like the second-round is making roughly $6.3 million. McBride finished with 90 receptions, 1,1,21 receiving yards, and one touchdown during his final year at Colorado State. He was expected to have a minor role to start the season, but that has likely change. Superstar wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is suspended to start the upcoming season, so McBride could have a bigger role in the offense. There's a chance that McBride ends up as a decent streaming option.
Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (knee) is expected to be able to suit up to begin the season. Although, head coach Mike McDaniel mentioned that the organization isn't going to rush it. Mostert suffered a knee injury in September and is still recovering from it. Chase Edmonds figures to be the primary back, but that might not last too long. Myles Gaskin, Sony Michel, and Mostert should be in the mix as well. This sounds like a headache for fantasy managers heading into the season.
Chicago Bears wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. has agreed to a four-year contract. The third round rookie figures to get plenty of attention this upcoming season. The Bears lack legitimate talent at wide receiver, so Jones could have a decent role. In 2021, Jones finished with 62 receptions, 807 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns during his senior year at Tennessee. The speedy wideout could be used in multiple roles, but we'll see how his game translates to the professional level.
Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee (knee) started on-field work a couple of weeks ago after undergoing offseason surgery on the knee injury he suffered in the NFC Championship Game, according to Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (knee) is 'better than where he was (in March) but not where he needs to be ... we don't put a timetable on it,' according to head coach Todd Bowles.
Fantasy Spin: Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 of last season and is a candidate to be placed on the PUP list in training camp, but the odds are very good he'll be ready to play at some point in September - if not Week 1. The Penn State product may need a few weeks to find his old form, but he should return WR2 value if rediscovers it at some point during the second half of the season. Russell Gage could flirt with WR2 value until that happens.
Free-agent RB Tarik Cohen (Bears) appeared to suffer a significant lower leg injury while training Tuesday, May 17. There has been some speculation from training video posted on social media that he may have torn his right Achilles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said that there remains no timetable for wide receiver Chris Godwin's (knee) return. "Better than where he was but not where he needs to be we don't put a timetable on it," Bowles said. As expected, Godwin isn't available for offseason team activities on Tuesday after tearing his ACL in Week 15 last year. As long as he doesn't suffer any setbacks in his rehab or at training camp this summer, Godwin is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. When healthy, Godwin is one of quarterback Tom Brady's favorite targets and should return to being a WR2, but he could get off to a slow start. If he's not ready for the start of the season, Russell Gage will be a popular fantasy play in Tampa's pass-first offense.
Free-agent TE Troy Fumagalli (Patriots) signed a one-year contract with the San Francisco 49ers on Tuesday, May 17, after participating in the team's rookie minicamp last weekend. Financial terms of the deal were not immediately disclosed. The 49ers also released TE Garrett Walston.
Free-agent running back Phillip Lindsay agreed to an undisclosed one-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts on Tuesday, according to his agent, Mike McCartney. Lindsay spent last season with the Houston Texans and Miami Dolphins, finishing with 88 carries for 249 yards (career-low 2.8 yards per carry) and one touchdown, also adding four receptions for 45 yards and another score. The 27-year-old opened with two 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his first two years in the NFL with the Denver Broncos, but he's fallen off considerably since then and will be competing for touches in Indianapolis behind bell-cow Jonathan Taylor and pass-catching back Nyheim Hines. Taylor or Hines would likely have to miss time due to injury for Lindsay to even be worth a fantasy pickup.
Former Chicago Bears running back Tarik Cohen (leg) appeared to suffer a significant lower leg injury while training on Tuesday. It's a tough blow for Cohen, who was finally recovered from a torn ACL in 2020. His latest injury is speculated to be a torn Achilles. The 26-year-old running back was released by the Bears with an injury designation back in March. If it's indeed a torn Achilles, he's unlikely to sign with a team or play at all in 2022. In his last full season in 2019, Cohen carried the ball 64 times for 213 yards while also catching a career-high 79 passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns on 104 targets in 16 games (11 starts) for the Bears.
Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (knee) expects to play in Week 1, but head coach Mike McDaniel told reporters Tuesday, May 17, that '(the Dolphins) are not going to rush it.' 'He's come too far to have a setback. He's diligently working day in, day out. When he's ready he'll be on the field,' McDaniel added.
Fantasy Spin: McDaniel and Mostert are quite familiar with each other, as the two began working with each other in 2017 with the San Francisco 49ers. Mostert should be considered the odds-on favorite to work in tandem with Chase Edmonds if he is ready for the opener, although Sony Michel could easily make a strong case to be the primary early-down back with a strong camp. Myles Gaskin also has a chance, but the odds are stacked against him considering Miami added three veterans at his position this offseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars rookie pass-rusher Travon Walker, the first overall pick in the draft, worked full time at outside linebacker during the team's rookie minicamp. "Just strictly working on outside linebacker things in practice I feel like I'm truly getting more comfortable with the position," Walker said. The first overall selection worked on pass-rush techniques and on dropping into coverage, which he will be asked to do at the position. The plan is for the rookie to focus on outside linebacker before working other positions. The 21-year-old could be a game-changing defensive player when it's all said and done, but it'll be interesting to see how he transitions to more of a traditional outside linebacker role in the NFL.