RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 11

Sat Nov 19 9:11am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Week 10 was filled with injuries to prominent fantasy players. That makes the Week 11 DFS slate a little tricky. Let’s take a look at some players to target while building your lineups, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Justin Fields, CHI at ATL ($7,600): Fields was able to dominate on the ground again last week, rushing 13 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. Over the last five games, he has 555 yards and five touchdowns on 62 carries. He also has at least two passing touchdowns in three straight games, making him one of the top quarterbacks to target for your lineup.

Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DET ($5,700): The Lions couldn’t slow down Fields on the ground last week, and now they’ll face another mobile quarterback in Jones. While he’s not nearly as explosive as Fields, he does have 387 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns this season. He’s also done a great job of limiting turnovers, throwing a total of just two interceptions.

Player to Avoid

Derek Carr, LV at DEN ($5,600): The Broncos have struggled to score, but they have been great on defense. They have allowed 16.6 points per game, which is the fewest in the NFL. Part of the reason for their success on defense is that they have allowed just six passing touchdowns. No other team has allowed fewer than nine. When Carr faced them in Week 4, he came away with 188 passing yards and no touchdowns.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. DET ($8,900): Coming out of their bye week, the Giants clearly wanted to run Barkley early and often against a bad Texans run defense. He received a whopping 35 carries, marking his four straight games with at least 20 rushing attempts. He took advantage of the heavy workload, posting 152 yards and a touchdown. Another juicy stat line could be coming against a Lions team that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game in the league.

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at HOU ($5,300): Robinson helped lead the Commanders to an upset win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football. He was given 26 carries, which he turned into 86 yards and a touchdown. The Commanders like to get him involved when they get in close, giving him at least four red zone carries in three of their last five games. With the Texans allowing the most rushing yards per game and having given up the fourth-most rushing touchdowns, Robinson could provide tremendous value.

Player to Avoid

D’Andre Swift, DET at NYG ($6,100): The good news is that Swift has scored two touchdowns over three games since returning from injury. The bad news is that he only has a total of 22 rushing yards and 73 receiving yards during that span. The Lions continue to limit his workload, and there’s no need to push him with Jamaal Williams also in the backfield. Until he shows signs of playing more, he’s too risky at this salary.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb, DAL at MIN ($7,500): It took a while, but Lamb finally posted his first 100-yard game of the season. Not only did he hit that threshold against the Packers last week, but he finished with 11 receptions for 150 yards and two touchdowns. He was targeted 15 times, marking his fifth game this season with at least 10 targets. A heavy workload like that leaves him with tons of upside against a Vikings team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Darius Slayton, NYG vs. DET ($5,000): Slayton was rumored to be on the trade block during the offseason and barely found his way onto the field early in the season. However, injuries have forced him to play more, and he’s now become arguably the Giants’ best wide receiver. He had at least 58 receiving yards in four of the last five games, and he had at least one touchdown in two of the last three games. If you’re looking for a wide receiver to stack with Jones, Slayton is your man.

Player to Avoid

Amari Cooper, CLE at BUF ($6,400): The positive news for Cooper is that this game was moved from a snowy forecast in Buffalo to a dome in Detroit. The problem is, he has crazy home and road splits. Over five home games, he has 32 receptions for 453 yards and five touchdowns. Over four road games, he has caught 10 passes for 132 yards and no touchdowns. Stay away.

Tight Ends

Cole Kmet, CHI at ATL ($4,100): With Fields thriving, Kmet has turned into a productive fantasy option. He has scored five touchdowns over the last three games, which included back-to-back games with two scores each. He also finished with 74 receiving yards in Week 10, marking his first game with at least 50 receiving yards this season. Up next is a great matchup against a Falcons team that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Tyler Conklin, NYJ at NE ($3,400): Conklin had a big game against the Patriots in Week 8, catching six of 10 targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns. That was a bit of an outlier performance for him, particularly in the scoring department since he has just three total touchdowns all season. Still, he could remain productive in their rematch, given that the Patriots have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. 

Player to Avoid

Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. CHI ($4,400): The Falcons have been trying to get Pitts the ball more lately, giving him at least seven targets in each of the last three games. The problem is, he only compiled nine catches for 135 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Mariota is probably better suited to be a backup quarterback at this stage of his career, so it’s not a surprise that the Falcons have only been giving him an average of 23.1 pass attempts per game. Pitts has a ton of talent, but will remain limited with Mariota as his quarterback.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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Player Notes
Cole Holcomb Apr 23 7:34am CT
Cole Holcomb

There remains no timetable for the return of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Cole Holcomb (knee) after he was injured in Week 9 when chasing down Tennessee Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins when teammate Keanu Neal collided with him. "I can tell you Cole [Holcomb's] working extremely hard to get back," general manager Omar Khan said.. "I don't really have much to add on the timeline. We've discussed this, it was a major injury but he is working hard and I'm optimistic about all the effort he's going to put into getting back on the field." The 27-year-old required season-ending surgery, and many thought it might put an end to his career. However, the former fifth-round pick of the Washington Commanders in 2019 out of North Carolina is working his way back and is hoping to play in 2024 after recording 442 tackles (270 solo) and 4.5 sacks in his first five NFL seasons over 58 games (56 starts).

Jacob Phillips Apr 22 11:10pm CT
Jacob Phillips

The Houston Texans signed former Cleveland Browns free-agent linebacker Jacob Phillips (pectoral) to an undisclosed one-year deal on Monday, according to a source. Phillips was drafted in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft out of LSU and was with the Browns for his first four NFL seasons. However, the 25-year-old spent all of last year on Injured Reserve due to a torn pectoral muscle. It was the second straight year that he ended the season on Injured Reserve due to a pectoral injury, and Phillips has a total of 88 tackles (57 solo), three sacks, five tackles for loss and five passes defended in his three years played in the league in 20 games (eight starts). Now that Phillips appears to be past his latest pectoral injury, he'll be fighting for a roster spot out of training camp in Houston this summer.

From RotoBaller

Andy Reid Apr 22 7:23pm CT
Andy Reid

Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid signed contract extensions with the Chiefs Monday, April 22. Terms of the contracts were not disclosed.

From TheHuddle

Russell Wilson Apr 22 5:33pm CT
Russell Wilson

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields and QB Kyle Allen were added to the roster this offseason, but general manager Omar Khan is not ruling out selecting a quarterback at some point after the first round of 2024 NFL Draft since all three of the new quarterbacks are on one-year contracts.

From TheHuddle

Zach Wilson Apr 22 5:13pm CT
Zach Wilson

Dynasty | Quarterback Zach Wilson has been traded to Denver along with a seventh round pick in exchange for a sixth round pick. Dynasty Analysis: The Jets and Broncos will reportedly split the $5.5 million Wilson is due this season. The former #2 overall pick is acquired for what amounts to a 53 spot draft slot-swap in the final rounds of this year's draft. It's a precipitous fall for a player who was once thought of as the savior of the franchise in New York. Denver is an interesting landing spot on paper and reports indicate they've been trying to get Wilson for weeks. The Broncos sit at #12 overall in the draft and that likely won't be high enough for Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or even JJ McCarthy. If they stand pat and can't secure a quarterback, the room will include Wilson, Ben DiNucci and Jarrett Stidham. Could they really go into a season like this? At this point, Wilson has a little life in his dynasty value but that's subject to change later this week.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Matt Ryan Apr 22 5:13pm CT
Matt Ryan

Dynasty | Former Falcons and Colts quarterback Matt Ryan is retiring from the NFL. Dynasty Analysis: Ryan spent 14 of his 15 seasons with the Falcons and was extremely effective in his time there, both in reality and fantasy. Ryan had ten straight years with at least 4,000 passing yards and could be penciled in for between 25 and 35 touchdown passes every season. A likely future Hall of Famer, Ryan ended his season with a forgettable year in Indianapolis but will be remembered as being a solid and consistent QB1 for more than a decade. He can be safely dropped from dynasty rosters if he somehow wasn't already.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Ladd McConkey Apr 22 4:00pm CT
Ladd McConkey

University of Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey has seemingly been rising up draft boards since his impressive showing at the 2024 NFL Combine, and he is now favored to be a first-round pick, according to DraftKings Sportsbook's odds. DraftKings gives the 22-year-old -105 odds to be one of the first 32 players off the board. In three seasons with the Bulldogs, the speedster collected 119 receptions for 1,687 yards and 14 touchdowns and rushed 13 times for 216 yards and four scores. He also averaged 13.3 yards per punt return on 21 attempts. He's a dynamic and versatile weapon with real route-running juice, so WR-needy teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills could be interested in pushing the draft button on him late in the first round on Thursday.

From RotoBaller

Brandon Aiyuk Apr 22 3:40pm CT
Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has not formally requested a trade from the organization, but he is still in the thick of trade rumors this offseason. When asked whether or not the team has received calls regarding a trade for Aiyuk, General Manager John Lynch said "Sure. We receive calls for a lot of players." That's a vague answer and does not give fantasy managers clarity on the situation, but it's worth noting teams have reached out. Aiyuk posted a career-high 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season despite ranking 28th in total targets (125). With Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner either on or set to receive expensive contracts, it will be a tough road to locking up Aiyuk to a long-term deal. If the team does decide to trade him, a first-round pick should be coming in return. Although Lynch has stated they would like to keep the 26-year-old, it wouldn't be shocking if he's dealt on draft night.

From RotoBaller

Mitchell Wilcox Apr 22 3:40pm CT
Mitchell Wilcox

The New England Patriots signed free-agent tight end Mitchell Wilcox on Monday, the team announced on X. Originally undrafted out of the 2020 class, Wilcox has spent the last four years with the Cincinnati Bengals. In 48 career games, the South Florida product has hauled in 29 of his 35 targets for 211 yards and one touchdown. The Patriots re-signed Hunter Henry to a three-year, $27 million deal this offseason, so the TE1 role is occupied in Foxborough. Wilcox could have the chance to compete with Austin Hooper for the TE2 job, but Hooper is likely the favorite to back up Henry. That said, Wilcox can be ignored in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott Apr 22 3:20pm CT
Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is entering the final year of his deal in 2024, and he and the organization have not begun contract negotiations. The former fourth-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft threw for a career-high 36 touchdowns in 2023, but Dallas suffered another disappointing playoff defeat in the NFC Divisional Round. On his contract situation, Prescott said "I'm not trying to be the highest paid necessarily. We'll wait until the negotiations begin and obviously want to put this team in the best situation." If the 30-year-old is willing to take a home team discount, it could help his chances of reaching a new deal. Star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and edge rusher Micah Parson will be up for new deals soon, meaning the Cowboys have a lot to figure out over the next few offseasons.

From RotoBaller

Zach Wilson Apr 22 1:50pm CT
Zach Wilson

The Denver Broncos are acquiring former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson from the New York Jets on Monday, according to sources. The Broncos are expected to send a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Jets for Wilson and a 2024 seventh-round selection, with the teams dividing his guaranteed camp roster bonus. The Broncos released Russell Wilson this offseason and were heading into this week's NFL draft with Jarrett Stidham as their starter under center in 2024. Wilson now has a much better shot at playing time with a change of scenery in 2024 after being benched in his final season with the Jets, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll beat out Stidham in training camp. The move to acquire Wilson also won't preclude the Broncos from selecting a QB in this year's draft, possibly as early as the first round.

From RotoBaller

Matt Ryan Apr 22 1:40pm CT
Matt Ryan

Quarterback Matt Ryan officially announced his retirement from professional football on Monday as a member of the Atlanta Falcons, the team that drafted him third overall in 2008 out of Boston College. Ryan spent 14 of his 15 NFL seasons in Atlanta, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2008 and an MVP award in 2016. In his lone trip to the Super Bowl in the same season he won his MVP award, the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead at halftime to lose to the New England Patriots. He made just 12 starts for the Indianapolis Colts in 2022 and threw for 3,057 yards, 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The 38-year-old four-time Pro Bowler ends his career as Atlanta's all-time leader in passing yards (59,735) and passing touchdowns (367). Ryan ranks seventh all-time in passing yards (62,792) and ninth in TD passes (381) as a future Hall of Famer.

From RotoBaller

Mac Jones Apr 22 1:30pm CT
Mac Jones

The New England Patriots are listening and taking calls from teams looking to move up to the No. 3 overall pick in the first round of Thursday's NFL draft. General manager Eliot Wolf is running point on the team's draft, but sources are saying president Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the decision-making process. Most people think the Patriots will ultimately stay at No. 3 and take a quarterback of the future after moving on from Mac Jones this offseason. Teams like the Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants and Denver Broncos would be the most likely to trade up to No. 3 to take a QB. If the Patriots stay put and select third overall, whatever rookie signal-caller they take would be competing with veteran Jacoby Brissett for the starting gig under center this fall.

From RotoBaller

Sam Hubbard Apr 22 1:30pm CT
Sam Hubbard

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard (ankle) was held out of two games in 2023 due to a right-ankle injury that required significant offseason surgery. Hubbard said that he had a complete deltoid reconstruction in his ankle and tight-rope procedure to fix his ankle. He said his ankle bothered him as early as training camp, and it became more severe later in the year. Through the first nine weeks of 2023, Hubbard ranked 28th in the NFL in pass-rush win rate as an edge rusher. But when he returned to the field in Week 12 until the end of the season, he ranked 49th out of 54 players in that category. The good news is that the 28-year-old says he'll be ready for training camp this summer. However, it's fair to wonder about how effective he'll be rushing the passer in 2024 after coming off a pretty significant surgery.

From RotoBaller

Levi Wallace Apr 22 1:30pm CT
Levi Wallace

Free-agent cornerback Levi Wallace signed an undisclosed deal with the Denver Broncos on Monday, according to a source. Wallace had six interceptions and 24 passes defended over the last two seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He'll give the Broncos some added secondary depth this week just ahead of the start of this year's NFL draft on Thursday evening. The 28-year-old entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Alabama in 2018 with the Buffalo Bills, and he spent the first four seasons of his career in Buffalo before playing for the Steelers the last two years. In his six seasons combined, Wallace has 305 tackles (236 solo), seven tackles for loss, 12 interceptions, 54 passes defended and one fumble recovery in 83 games (70 starts).

From RotoBaller

Rashee Rice Apr 22 1:20pm CT
Rashee Rice

ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is expected to be disciplined by the NFL, resulting in at least a multi-game suspension. Rice is currently facing eight charges after he and another driver of a speeding car allegedly caused a crash involving a half-dozen vehicles in Dallas last month. He turned himself into police last week before being released on bond. The looming suspension for Rice could push the Chiefs, who own the No. 32 pick in this week's NFL draft, to keep a close eye on receivers in the draft. KC would have been expected to look for receiver help even before Rice's off-field troubles. They had the most drops in the league (38) in 2023. Rice was quarterback Patrick Mahomes' favorite target outside of tight end Travis Kelce last year, but his fantasy stock is going to take a hit going into 2024 with a suspension looming.

From RotoBaller

Matt Ryan Apr 22 1:13pm CT
Matt Ryan

Free-agent QB Matt Ryan (Colts) officially retired from the NFL on Monday, April 22.

From TheHuddle

Darren Waller Apr 22 7:33am CT
Darren Waller

Dynasty | Giants tight end Darren Waller is still mulling retirement. Dynasty Analysis: Waller has dealt with a lot of injuries over his career and it seems as if he's really considering calling it quits. The Giants are reportedly giving him a lot of time to consider his options and not forcing a decision, though it's quite certain they'd like to know prior to next week's NFL Draft as his loss could actually make Brock Bowers a consideration with their pick in the top ten. Regardless, it looks like Waller is certainly towards the end of his career and dynasty managers need to start making plans to be without him in the near future, possibly as soon as this year.

Michael Pratt Apr 21 10:10pm CT
Michael Pratt

ESPN New York's Rich Cimini writes that it sounds as if New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas is serious about adding a quarterback on Day 3 of this year's NFL draft, saying he'd love to create "a quarterback factory" like the Green Bay Packers did in the 1990s. The dream is to find a late-round gem, and the Jets hold the final pick in the draft (No. 257 overall). The Jets hosted Tulane's Michael Pratt, Florida State's Jordan Travis and Samford's Michael Hiers, with each QB being a potential Day 3 pick. Kentucky's Devin Leary and Tennessee's Joe Milton III could also be candidates. Douglas hasn't had much luck in his career drafting quarterbacks, either, so it's surely something he'd like to change.

From RotoBaller