Wed Oct 2 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Thomas is off to a good start
The big item of note this week is the dreaded byes start. We knew it was coming but it still stinks. Losing key players is never fun to deal with but it is part of the game. Just roll with it and put your best lineup out there. Everyone has byes to deal with, so it all evens out in the end. But good luck trying to replace guys like Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown this week. Ouch.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
While I think Kareem Hunt will get the starting nod and much of the work going forward for the Chiefs, I still don’t have a lot of faith in him from a fantasy perspective. I still think the Chiefs rotate backs and are a pass-first offense. I think Hunt will have some solid game but be hit or miss in his current role. So I wouldn’t break the bank trying to acquire him. He is going to have value but not be a huge weekly play in my view.
I am at the point that I have no idea what will happen at tight end from week to week. It is just a dart throw at this point. I was really hoping some of these tight ends would emerge and post consistent numbers, but I’m not sure that is going to happen. I mean Isaiah Likely is still sixth overall in tight end scoring and has fewer than five points three straight games. It just looks like a boom or bust position on a weekly basis. Just hope you hit on those booms when they happen. This is a really frustrating position right now.
Jayden Daniels is a special, special player. He is the real deal and seems to be getting better every week. Daniels is first overall in fantasy scoring after four games, ranking ahead of all the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. It is pretty amazing to see Daniels starting his career so fast. It really seems like the sky is the limit for Daniels. I would feel great about having him as my QB1 right now.
At this point, I would not count on Christian McCaffrey returning this season. I’m not sure how more was not known before the season but this is looking like one of the all-tine first pick busts. With all the information at our fingertips, it just amazes me how in the dark everyone was when it comes to the injuries McCaffrey was dealing with. And with that said, Jordan Mason sure looks like a No. 1 back in this offense. He has three 100-yard games and double-digit fantasy points every game. He was great insurance for all those McCaffrey owners.
There are three rookie fantasy receivers that rank in the top 15 at receiver. This class is living up to expectations at the receiver position. There is a ton of top talent that is going to be producing big fantasy numbers for years to come. It wouldn’t even surprise me if Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Brian Thomas are even top 10 by season’s end. These guys are going to be stars and more in this class could emerge as well.
I think Davante Adams would benefit from a trade - pretty much no matter where he lands. Could you imagine if he ends up with the Chiefs, Cowboys or Commanders? His value could go through the roof with any of those teams. This guy still has plenty of talent and a few years left as an elite No. 1 receiver. A change of scenery would be good for him. Let’s get it done.
I really wish Kenneth Walker could just stay healthy. He is such a dynamic back. His play in that Monday night game was so impressive. He is as explosive and dynamic as any back in the game. I just hate that he seems to be battling some sort of injury so often. I think he is a back capable of finishing first overall in fantasy running back scoring if everything breaks his way. He is crazy talented.
News and Notes: The Broncos signed running back Salvon Ahmed to their practice squad on Tuesday. Ahmed adds depth to the running back room with Tyler Badie banged up. . . . The Packers are trying out kickers, seeing Chad Ryland and Lucas Havrisik get workouts this week. The team might be looking to replace Brayden Narveson sooner than later. . . . .The NFL suspended linebacker Von Miller four games for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. He will be eligible to return Week 9.
HOT PLAYS
Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers. His fantasy stats aren’t off the charts this year, but pretty solid for Purdy. He has at least 18.5 fantasy points three straight games. And he has thrown for at least 288 yards all three of those games. He is making big plays in the passing game. Purdy has also done this with a banged up roster. These guys are getting healthy now, which bodes well for Purdy to produce even better numbers. Look for a big game from Purdy this week against the Cardinals, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Brian Thomas, WR, Jaguars. Thomas has been a bright spot for an erratic Jaguars offense. He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games and his season-low in fantasy points is just 9.8. He topped 20 fantasy points last week and scored his second touchdown of the season. Thomas has nine targets each of the last two games. He should get a workout again this week against the Colts, a team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to receivers.
Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos. Williams has been pretty ho-hum to start the season but does have double-digit fantasy points two of three games. He had his best rushing game of the season last week, running 16 times for 77 yards. Maybe this game gets him going. Williams has a matchup to produce well this week, getting the Raiders. Las Vegas allows the eighth most fantasy points to running backs and are 24th overall against the run. Give Williams a shot as your No. 2 back or flex option in Week 5.
Malik Nabers, WR, Giants. Nabers will have to clear the concussion protocol this week but things are looking up for him to play with the Giants having the Thursday game last week. He seems to be doing fine. With that said, Nabers has become a must start for fantasy owners. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight games. He has at least 12 targets all three of those games. The volume that Nabers gets on a weekly basis is huge. He is shaping up as the clear No. 1 rookie receiver this season. He gets a good Seahawks defense this week but don’t let that dissuade you from using Nabers. He will get the volume and produce once again in a game the Giants could be playing from behind.
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard is becoming must start for fantasy owners. He got off to a slow start but has quickly put that behind him. He has two straight games with 20-plus fantasy points. Hubbard also has 120-plus total yards each of those two games. The Panthers offense is coming alive with Andy Dalton running the show. Look for another solid game from Hubbard in Week 5. He gets the Bears, a team that allows the 10th most fantasy points to running backs.
COLD PLAYS
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders. Meyers was the No. 1 receiver for the Raiders last week with Davante Adams and had five receptions for 49 yards on 10 targets. He got his looks but didn’t produce a whole lot of fantasy owners. He could be the top target once again this week but that doesn’t mean you have to play him. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of four games and gets a great Broncos secondary to deal with in Week 5. Denver allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers and has shutdown corner Patrick Surtain shadowing the opposition’s top targets.
Zack Moss, RB, Bengals. Moss has been very solid all season for fantasy owners. He has 14-plus fantasy points three of four games. He has found the end zone three of those games. His yardage numbers have not been very good, though, which is a bit of a concern. He has fewer than 60-rushing yards every game. And last week Chase Brown had a huge game and played his most snaps of the season (40 percent). So Moss carries some risk this week against a good Ravens rush defense. Baltimore is first against the run, allowing just 57.8-rushing yards per game.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Cowboys. Tolbert has 13-plus fantasy points two of four games. He has been pretty solid as the No. 3 receiver for the Cowboys. He is more of a boom or bust play, though. We aren’t playing him unless he has a prime matchup. And a game this week against the Steelers isn’t a good one for Tolbert. The Steelers allow the ninth fewest fantasy points to tight ends and are ninth overall against the run.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Not sure that Mahomes has ever made this list but here we are. Mahomes is just 15th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and still hasn’t reached 20 fantasy points in any game this season. He has not been helpful to fantasy owners. It is tough to bench him but we would strongly consider it this week. He lost another top receiver last week to injury, which is another concern. And Mahomes plays the Saints this week, a team that allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings. Jones made our hot list last week but gets the opposite treatment this week. He played a great game last week and has 17-plus fantasy points three of four games. Jones has been very good his first season as the statrer in Minnesota. We worry about him a little this week, though, getting a great Jets defense. New York has allowed fewer than 18 points three straight and allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Jones could have a ho-hum showing in this one.
SLEEPERS
Josh Downs, WR, Colts. Downs is healthy and becoming a big part of the Colts passing game. He played 62 percent of the snaps last week and had eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been targeted 14 times in his two games this season. He can have another good showing this week against a bad Jaguars defense. Jacksonville is dead last against the pass and allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. Swift finally came alive last week, finishing with 165 total yards and a touchdown on 23 touches. He did this after some speculative Roschon Johnson might be cutting into his playing time. Well, that didn’t happen last week and Swift played great, so look for him to continue carrying the load. He could produce a similar huge game this week against the Panthers. Carolina allows the second most fantasy points to running backs and is 29th overall against the run, allowing 148.8-rushing yards per game.
Allen Lazard, WR, Jets. Lazard has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. He has double-digit fantasy points three of four games. His floor is decent right now, having at least three receptions all but a game. He gets his looks and is a top red-zone target for the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is familiar with Lazard and looks his way often. He could have another solid game this week, playing the Vikings. The Jets could be behind in this game and have to throw more often to catch up. Plus, Minnesota allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns. Jeudy is another receiver kind of flying under the radar. He has been pretty dang consistent, having double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He has two games with 70-plus yards and at least six targets every game. A move to Cleveland has been a positive for Jeudy. Look for him to post another solid game this week against the Commanders. Washington allows the most fantasy points to receivers this season.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers. Kraft had his best game of the season last week, catching six passes for 53 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. The return of Jordan Love was a big positive for Kraft and the entire Packers passing game. Kraft has emerged as the go-to tight end for the Packers, playing 86 percent of the snaps last week compared to 33 percent for Luke Musgrave. Kraft is the tight end to play in this offense. He is setup for another solid game this week against the Rams. Los Angeles allows the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends and has struggled defensively much of the season.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bucs/Falcons, Ravens/Bengals, Bills/Texans, Cardinals/49ers, Colts/Jaguars, Packers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: Panthers/Bears, Dolphins/Texans, Raiders/Broncos.
Byes: Lions, Chargers, Eagles, Titans.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 9
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers posted his first multi-score game of the season and broke the century mark in a 41-10 blowout over the Denver Broncos. The speedy wideout finished the game with 127 yards, two touchdowns, five receptions, and six targets. He was able to get open at all different levels of the field and was able to shed tacklers in the process. Flowers' longest play of the day was a 53-yard score where he caught the ball in the middle of the field, broke a tackle, and outran the rest of the defense. He'll look to continue this momentum in Week 10 against their AFC North foes the Cincinnati Bengals.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Joshua Palmer scored his first touchdown of the season in a Week 9 win over the Cleveland Browns. Palmer was targeted four times, making two catches for 63 yards. His touchdown came in the first quarter on a 28-yard pass from Justin Herbert to open the scoring. His other catch was a 35-yarder. Palmer seems to be settling into a role as a big-play wide receiver instead of the heavily targeted one many expected before the season. He'll be hard to trust in Week 10 despite a good matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly (shoulder) only made two catches in a Week 9 win over the Cleveland Browns. Dissly has been dealing with a shoulder injury but came into the game without an official injury designation. He'd been very heavily involved in the passing game over the past three games, but with Quentin Johnston returning from an ankle injury, Dissly again faded into a support role at best. He was targeted just three times, making his two catches for nine yards total. Dissly could have some touchdown-dependent value in fantasy leagues going forward, but his brief stint as a TE1 is likely over.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) won't return to Sunday's game against Jacksonville. The wideout came back to the field with his team to start the second half of the contest. However, he wasn't on the sidelines long before leaving for the locker room. Brown will finish Week 9 with only two catches for 36 yards. As expected, fantasy managers are now wondering if he'll be available in Week 10 for the NFC East meeting with the Cowboys. If he's not, DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, and Saquon Barkley would presumably get more involved on the receiving end. Dallas Goedert (hamstring) would also likely see more targets, assuming he returns from his stint on the shelf. But if Goedert isn't available versus Dallas, Grant Calcaterra would also be in the mix for more attention from Jalen Hurts.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker attempted five kicks in a Week 9 win over the Cleveland Browns. Dicker made three of his four extra point tries and missed his only field goal attempt. Dicker's field goal try came from 44 yards out. He's still one of the more consistent kickers in the NFL, but this was far from his best performance. Luckily, the Bolts were comfortably ahead and were able to wrap up a 27-10 win.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) exited Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. The signal-caller had a decent showing. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury ended his day abruptly. Of course, there are concerns about the severity of his injury. However, Prescott will undergo an MRI on Monday. He'll likely miss some practice time throughout the week, assuming the injury isn't serious. But if Prescott can't suit up in Week 10 versus the Eagles, Cooper Rush, finishing with 115 yards and a touchdown off 13-for-25 passing on Sunday, would presumably remain under center.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie running back Kimani Vidal continued in his clear backup role in a 27-10 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 9. Vidal carried the ball five times, gaining just seven yards total while not seeing a target in the passing game. Starter J.K. Dobbins scored twice in this game and recorded 16 touches, with Vidal again sticking to an occasional change of pace and backup role. On his own, Vidal won't have any real fantasy value, but if Dobbins were to miss time, Vidal would step into his role and skyrocket into the RB2 ranks.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (ankle) had a big game in his return to the starting lineup in Week 9. Johnston missed two games with an ankle injury but came back strong and looked good. He was targeted five times, making four catches for 118 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown was on a big 66-yard play in the second quarter. Johnston ended up leading the team in receiving yards and was second in catches and targets. He should continue to be heavily involved and could move into a consistent WR3 fantasy rank if the Chargers keep their offense going. They'll face the Tennessee Titans in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey made five catches in a 27-10 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 9. McConkey led the team in targets with seven, and in catches with five. He was second in receiving yards with 64, behind Quentin Johnston. McConkey was once again the main first look for quarterback Justin Herbert and should continue to be a high-floor WR2/3 option throughout the season, especially in Week 10 with a game coming up against the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins scored two touchdowns in a Week 9 win over the Cleveland Browns. Dobbins commanded the backfield once again, carrying the ball 14 times, gaining 85 yards and scoring twice. He added two catches for 20 yards through the air, catching both of his targets. His first touchdown was a 16-yard run in the second quarter and his second was a seven-yard scamper in the fourth quarter. Dobbins continues to be the clear three-down RB1 in the LA backfield, as Kimani Vidal was the only other Chargers back to record a carry, and he had only five. Dobbins and the Chargers will take on the Titans in Week 10, where Dobbins should again be in the RB1/2 conversation.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert played well in a 27-10 Week 9 win over the Cleveland Browns. Herbert attempted 27 passes, completing 18 of them for 282 yards and two touchdowns. He added two yards on the ground on three recorded carries while taking six sacks, losing 36 yards. Herbert's first touchdown was a 28-yard pass to Joshua Palmer in the first quarter, and he followed it up with a 66-yard pass to Quentin Johnston in the second. Herbert didn't need to do much in the second half as the Chargers just chewed lock and nursed their lead. He could have had a bigger game, but the Bolts defense held the Browns to just three points until the last drive of the game. Herbert and the Chargers will take on the Titans in Week 10.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is now tied for the most games with a perfect passer rating (4) in NFL history. The only other QB with four is AFC North rival Ben Roethlisberger. In the 41-10 win over the Denver Broncos, Jackson posted 280 yards and three touchdowns while throwing 16-for-19 and adding four yards on three carries. He's considered the front-runner for his third MVP by most outlets and Jackson remains atop the position in fantasy as well. He'll go up against the Cincinnati Bengals again in Week 10 on Thursday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught four out of five targets for 80 yards in Miami's 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The offense made it clear early that their mission was to establish the run against a vulnerable defensive line for the Bills. Hill would've had a much better day if Tua Tagovailoa had hit him in stride on a deep ball he severely underthrew, which may have ended in a touchdown. Contrary to the defense's poor performance, the offense gave a great showing. Nonetheless, Hill made the most of the limited number of targets he received. At (2-6), Miami will be desperate for wins for the rest of the season, which should equal more targets for the speedster. The 30-year-old looks to have more looks next week when the Dolphins travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (ankle) caught both his two targets for minus-four yards and a receiving touchdown in their 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Other than the touchdown, Waddle was relatively quiet during the day. His second reception came on the game's last play, where Miami lateraled, and he ran close to 25 yards backwards. He left the game briefly with an ankle injury but soon re-entered the game with no further issues. The lack of targets came from the offense electing to establish the run and expose Buffalo's weakness of stopping the run. Still, this season has not been what fantasy managers have hoped for from the 25-year-old after three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. With Miami falling to 2-6 and the schedule looking a bit easier in the next couple of weeks, Waddle has the potential to break out. Next week, a matchup with the Los Angeles Rams could be a shootout.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) is questionable to return to Sunday's game versus the Jaguars. The wideout was back on the field with his team for the start of the second half. But, it didn't take long before he was shown jogging back to the locker room. It's unknown how or when the injury occurred. But if Brown doesn't return, he'll finish with two receptions for 36 yards, with DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson, and Grant Calcaterra potentially in line to see more attention from Jalen Hurts for the rest of Week 9.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry extended his scoring streak to nine games and scored his 100th career rushing touchdown while he dominated the Denver Broncos in a 41-10 win on Sunday. The King ended the game with 106 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries and even added one reception for 27 yards. Henry extended his lead as the RB1 even further and is the first running back to 1,000 yards this season. He's on pace to break his yard mark for all of last season by their next game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua was ejected from Sunday's meeting with the Seattle Seahawks. The wideout wasn't a lock to play after re-aggravating his knee injury. While he was on the field, he didn't last long before getting disqualified for punching Seahawks cornerback Coby Bryant near the end of the second quarter. Nacua will finish this one with only one catch (four targets) for 11 yards, leaving room for Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell to get more involved on the receiving end for the rest of the contest.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of 28 passes for 231 yards and two touchdowns in their 30-27 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It was a second straight outing where the offense looked much improved from weeks prior. The Miami rushing attack created a lot of open space in the secondary for Tagovailoa to create chunk plays. In their previous meeting with Buffalo back in Week 2, Tagovailoa threw three interceptions. It was encouraging to see no turnovers from him against an excellent defense. This also marks back-to-back games where the former Alabama Crimson Tide finished with no turnovers, and the offense scored 27 points. With Miami now sitting at (2-6), they're more desperate than ever to get wins. Look for Tagovailoa to air the ball out next week when they travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a game that could be a shootout.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua was ejected from Sunday's meeting with the Seattle Seahawks. The wideout wasn't a lock to play after re-aggravating his knee injury. While he was on the field, he didn't last long before getting disqualified for punching Seahawks cornerback Coby Bryant near the end of the second quarter. Nacua will finish this one with only one catch (four targets) for 11 yards, leaving room for Cooper Cupp, Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell to get more involved on the receiving end for the rest of the contest.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns defense allowed 27 points while notching six sacks in a 27-10 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. While Cleveland's pass rush was a problem for the Chargers, they struggled to contain the running game as J.K. Dobbins ripped off 85 yards and two touchdowns in the lopsided loss. The Browns were led by Myles Garrett, who had three sacks, and Dalvin Tomlinson, who had 1.5 sacks. Cleveland will be on bye in Week 10 before a road matchup against the New Orleans Saints.
From RotoBaller