Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 23 9:32am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Tua is setup for another big week


Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. And my Thanksgiving Lineup Prep is my favorite column to write. I like to list all the things I’m thankful for fantasy wise. It is a fun column to write and I’m excited to get it started. So without further ado, here we go. . .  .

I am thankful for rebound seasons. I have tons of stock in Saquon Barkley this year and thrilled to see him running like the Saquon of old. Sure, it was a little risk to put a ton of stock in him to get it going again, but sometimes you have to take some risks if you hope to hit it big. And right now, all those Barkley owners are feeling pretty good about taking him come draft day.

I am thankful for different draft strategies working for fantasy owners. There isn’t a set strategy that works every time come draft day, which I think makes this game that much more fun to play. You can use all different strategies and still have success. I think this year is a great example of this. The running back spot has been really frustrating this year, but the ones that have played well have played really well. So if you got a Austin Ekeler or Barkley, you are probably having a good season. But the teams that avoided running back early come draft day probably are having plenty of success as well with Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson having huge seasons. So going receiver early has worked as well, especially if you were able to nab a guy like Dameon Pierce or Josh Jacobs later in your drafts. And those owners that took Travis Kelce in the first or second round have enjoyed plenty of success as well as he is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the tight ends this year. So as you can see, all sorts of different strategies have led to success this year. It seems the case every year, making this game so fun to play. 

I am thankful that players and the NFL are embracing the fantasy community. You see so much more engagement from players when it comes to fantasy football, especially a guy like Austin Ekeler. This is great news for the fantasy industry and players. This game should continue to evolve and flourish with guys like Ekeler leading the way as a strong advocate for the game. 

I am thankful the NFL trade market is a lot more exciting these days. I can’t remember a deadline that brought so much activity as this past year. It was great to see a guy like Christian McCaffrey get a fresh start in a much better offense. It is rare to see such a big-name player get traded in the NFL, but maybe this year will open the door for that to happen more often during the season. It sure made for an exciting deadline this year. Let’s hope that is the norm going forward. 

I am thankful for all the up to the minute info you can find on Twitter when it comes to injuries, trades, and any other breaking news that can impact your fantasy lineup. It is amazing how quickly news travels these days. This makes things so much easier than it used to when it comes to setting your lineups and rankings for the week. Say what you want about Twitter, but it has been a huge blessing to the fantasy community. Just a great way to engage and get up to the minute information. 

I am thankful for underdog stories. It is great to see players exceed expectations and help fantasy teams when no on thought that might be the case. The big one this year is Geno Smith. He is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and outplaying the player he replaced, Russell Wilson, by a wide margin. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming outside of Smith himself. It has been a great story. 

I am thankful for rookies. Everyone loves a rookie, but especially a rookie that helps fantasy teams. And there are plenty of rookies that are making an impact this year. That seems to be the case every year, but rookie running backs have been especially good this year despite none of them being super hyped come draft day. Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall look to be top fantasy players for years to come. 

Lastly, I am thankful for you, the users of RealTime Fantasy Sports. This is a great community to be a part of and I am super thankful to be just a small part of that. Thank you so much for helping make RTSports the best fantasy football community on the web. Have a great Thanksgiving!

News and Notes: The Broncos released running back Melvin Gordon on Monday. This was a surprise, but fumbling issues and a lack of consistency likely ended his time in Denver. Latavius Murray should get first shot to start for Denver going forward. . . . .The Panthers named Sam Darnold  the starting quarterback for Week 12. He takes over for Baker Mayfield, who has struggled much of the year. . . . .The Rams released running back Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. This was a bit of a surprise, leaving Cam Akers and Kyren Williams the likely players to split the carries at running back for the Rams going forward. 

HOT PLAYS

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys. The return of Ezekiel Elliott didn’t slow down Pollard. He still played 54 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Elliott. Pollard has 21-plus fantasy point three straight games. He has topped 100 total yards four straight games. And in Week 3 against the Giants, who he is playing this week, Pollard had a 100-yard rushing game. He is a must start for fantasy teams right now. 

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings. Hockenson didn’t have a great game his last time out, but the entire Vikings offense was a mess. The good new is he was still targeted nine times in the game. He has at least nine targets three straight games with the Vikings. He is getting a ton of weekly looks with his new team. He has double-digit fantasy points five times this season, showing he is capable of the big game. He can rebound this week against the Patriots, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. New England allows the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa has become about a must start for fantasy teams on a weekly basis. He is playing his best football right now, being third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has three straight games with three touchdown passes and hit the 300-yard mark two of those games. He has 26-plus fantasy points three consecutive games. He can reach those numbers again this week against the Texans, a team that allows 23 points per game. 

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker had one of his worst games of the season since becoming starter his last time out, rushing 10 times for just 17 yards. But the good news was he was still involved in the passing game, catching six passes for 55 yards on eight targets. This really helps his fantasy floor. He has at least 12 fantasy points six straight games. Look for him to get back to his big ways against a bad Raiders defense in Week 12. Las Vegas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin isn’t having quite the season most hoped, but it hasn’t been all bad by any means, especially since Taylor Heinicke has become the starter. He has 100-yard games two of four and been targeted at least eight times five straight. He has 17-plus fantasy points three of five games. He remains capable of the huge game any given week. And a matchup against the Falcons this week is a great one for McLaurin. Atlanta allows the most fantasy points to receivers and are 29th overall against the pass. 

COLD PLAYS 

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones has played better football lately, but still hasn’t been great all year. He has six games with fewer than 20 fantasy points. And one of his favorite targets in the passing game, Wan’Dale Robinson, is now out for the season. This is not good news for Jones, especially this week against a very good Cowboys defense. Jones scored just 16.7 fantasy points in Week 3 against Dallas. He passed for just 196 yards and didn’t score a touchdown. Go with better options in Week 12. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara has been pretty quiet lately, especially on the ground. He has fewer than 50-rushing yard three straight games. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He isn’t even getting enough work in the passing game to make up for those poor rushing totals. It could be more of the same this week against a very good 49ers defense. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank first overall against the run, allowing just 81.1-rushing yards per game. 

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers. Johnson is super talented but just isn’t getting it done for fantasy teams right now. He is not stretching the field at all, leading to poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points four of five games. He has less than 50 yards four of those games. His season high in yards is just 84. He is a hard player to trust, especially this week against the Colts. Indy allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank seventh overall against the pass.  

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon had one of his worst games of the season last week, scoring just 9.2 fantasy points. He ran seven times for just 20 yards. He actually has fewer than 30-rushing yards two of three games. The Bengals are having some issues running the ball and it could be more of the same this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and rank second against the run. Tennesse has not allowed 100-rushing yards since Week 2. 

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is finally starting to show some signs of life as the Bears offense is heating up. He has scores two of three games. The concern is he has fewer than 50 yards two of those games. He still isn’t getting a ton of yards or catches despite the Bears playing well. And now Justin Fields is hurt and iffy to play, which is a big concern for Mooney. He might be a player to avoid this week against the Jets, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank 10th overall against the pass. 

SLEEPERS

Kalif Raymond, WR, Lions. Raymond has played at least 82% of the snaps six straight games. He is getting a lot of playing time in the Lions offense. And he has at least three receptions three straight games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent. He has a chance for a lot of targets once again against the Bills. The Lions are likely going to be playing from behind this game, needing to throw often. Raymond could be a sneaky WR3 for fantasy teams in Week 12. 

Rachaad White, RB, Bucs. White played more snaps than Leonard Fournette his last time out for the first time all season. White played 64 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Fournette. There could be a changing of the guard going on in Tampa. And White is playing well with his chances, hitting the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career his last game. If he gets that workload again this week against the Browns, White can produce big once again. Cleveland allows the second most fantasy points to running backs. 

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts. Campbell is a different receiver with Matt Ryan at the helm at quarterback. He has 12 receptions his last two games and had 17 receptions during a two-game stretch with Ryan starting earlier this season. Ryan targeted him 23 times during those two games. He has real fantasy value with Ryan starting in Indy. He should do well again this week against the Steelers, a team playing better defensively but still allow the second most fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh is dead last against the pass, allowing 272.1-passing yards per game. 

Foster Moreau, TE, Raiders. Moreau hasn’t done a whole lot in a starting role for the Raiders, but does have a double-digit game two weeks ago against the Colts. He has at least four targets four of five games. He is getting some weekly chances and producing decent number. He could hit that double-digit fantasy point total this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is not good against the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Moreau could be a good streaming option for fantasy teams. 

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard actually played the most snaps for the Panthers last week, playing 40 percent compared to 39 percent for D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard had just six touches in the game, but two were receptions, which helps his fantasy floor. He is the better pass catcher of the two, which helps him get on the field. The Panthers could struggle to run the ball against a good Broncos defense, so Hubbard could be on the field more once again as the Panthers might throw the ball more often. He could be worth a look in deeper formats for fantasy teams. 

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bills/Lions, Chargers/Cardinals, Raiders/Seahawks, Packers/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: Bears/Jets, Broncos/Panthers, Steelers/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report
Player Notes
Marcus Mariota Apr 18 2:00pm CT
Marcus Mariota

Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters may not be looking to trade out of the No. 2 overall pick in the first round of next week's NFL draft. "We feel great about staying at No. 2. Don't see a lot of scenarios where we trade down," Peters said. This shouldn't be a big surprise after Washington dealt last year's starter, Sam Howell, to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason. As of right now, veteran Marcus Mariota is atop the QB depth chart in D.C., but the Commanders will most likely take either LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye with the second overall pick next Thursday night if another club like the Minnesota Vikings doesn't made an offer that the Commanders can't refuse to move up into the No. 2 spot.

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Jayden Daniels Apr 18 1:40pm CT
Jayden Daniels

The Minnesota Vikings brass is scheduled to meet with LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels for dinner on Thursday night in Baton Rouge, according to agent Ron Butler. Daniels is widely expected to come off the board in the top three picks of next week's NFL draft, so if the Vikings are going to land the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, they would need to trade up within the first round. Minnesota acquired the No. 23 overall pick in a trade this spring with the Houston Texans, so they now hold two first-round selections at Nos. 11 and 23. The Vikings are clearly in the market for a signal-caller after Kirk Cousins left in free agency and signed with the Atlanta Falcons, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the team trade up within the first five picks to select Daniels or another QB prospect.

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Terrel Bernard Apr 18 1:20pm CT
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Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle) said he feels very good health-wise after he missed the team's playoff lost against the Kansas City Chiefs due to an ankle injury. All signs point to Bernard being fully ready for training camp this summer and for the start of the 2024 regular season this fall. The 24-year-old was second in overall IDP fantasy points at the linebacker position in 2023, behind only Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foyesade Oluokun. In 17 regular-season games, Bernard racked up a career-high 143 tackles (84 solo), a career-high 6.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, nine QB hits, three interceptions, five passes defended and three fumble recoveries. As long as he's healthy in 2024, Bernard is going to be in play as a weekly starting linebacker in IDP formats.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Apr 18 1:10pm CT
Drake Maye

New England Patriots director of scouting/lead executive Eliot Wolf said, "we are open for business" on trades in next week's NFL draft, whether it be for moving up or down. Wolf said the team's first pick (No. 3 overall) doesn't have to be a quarterback but believes there will be a QB available that will be worth picking at third overall. The Patriots are keeping things open, but it would be a surprise if they didn't stand pat with the third overall pick to take their next franchise signal-caller after trading Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason. New England has already met with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. If they stick at No. 3 and take a QB as everyone expects they will, the rookie QB will compete with veteran Jacoby Brissett for the starting job at training camp this summer.

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Nick Chubb Apr 18 1:10pm CT
Nick Chubb

Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry said that running back Nick Chubb (knee) has started running on land within the last week and is progressing appropriately after he suffered a gruesome season-ending knee injury in Week 2 of last year. The next few weeks and months will be big for Chubb's return in 2024. The 28-year-old is entering the third and final season of his current deal in Cleveland, but there remains no timetable for his return after such a significant injury in 2023. Chubb had multiple surgeries last fall to fix ACL, MCL and meniscus injuries to his left knee. We don't know right now if Chubb will be ready for Week 1, but the best guess is that if he is, he'll be eased back in alongside D'Onta Foreman, Nyheim Hines and Jerome Ford.

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Gus Edwards Apr 18 12:13am CT
Gus Edwards

Dynasty | The Chargers are signing running back JK Dobbins to a one-year deal. Dynasty Analysis: Once one of the most coveted running backs in all dynasty leagues, Dobbins' career has been shattered by injuries, including a torn Achilles that happened in week one last season. When healthy, Dobbins has been one of the most effective runners in the league. However, since being drafted in 2020, he has been able to suit up in only 24 career games. He'll conceivably pair up with Gus Edwards and could have some dynasty value again should Los Angeles fail to add to the depth chart through the upcoming NFL Draft.

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Rashaad Penny Apr 17 11:10pm CT
Rashaad Penny

The Seattle Seahawks reportedly visited with unrestricted free-agent running back Rashaad Penny on Wednesday. Seattle is pretty familiar with Penny after taking him with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 draft out of San Diego State. The 28-year-old flashed moments of brilliance in the first five seasons with the Seahawks but just was never able to stay healthy enough to stay on the field for long stretches. Penny averaged 5.7 yards per carry with 1,918 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 337 carries in Seattle while also catching 27 passes for 222 yards and another score. He had his smallest role yet with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023, carrying the ball 11 times for 33 yards in three regular-season games. A move back to Seattle would have Penny serving as backfield depth behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.

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Trevon Wesco Apr 17 11:10pm CT
Trevon Wesco

The Cleveland Browns reportedly visited with Tennessee Titans undrafted free-agent tight end Trevon Wesco on Wednesday. Wesco was originally drafted by the New York Jets in the fourth round (121st overall) in 2019 out of West Virginia. The 28-year-old spent the first three years of his NFL career in New York before single-year stints with the Chicago Bears and Titans in each of the last two seasons. He has just nine receptions on 17 targets for 134 yards and no touchdowns in 69 games (23 starts) in his five-year NFL career. Wesco has made a career out of being a blocking-first tight, so he won't even be close to the fantasy radar if he lands in Cleveland as depth in the TE room behind David Njoku and alongside names like Jordan Akins, Giovanni Ricci and Zaire Mitchell-Paden.

From RotoBaller

J.K. Dobbins Apr 17 7:00pm CT
J.K. Dobbins

Free-agent running back J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) plans to sign a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers according to his agent. Dobbins appeared in just one game in 2023 before he tore his Achilles and missed the remainder of the campaign. The veteran runner will be reunited with offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who called plays for the Baltimore Ravens during a portion of Dobbins' stint there. Signs indicate that new head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to operate a run-heavy offensive approach with the Chargers, which would be good news for Dobbins, provided he's healthy. Consider this a good landing spot for Dobbins, who will look to prove his health in hopes of landing a long-term deal next offseason.

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Rashaad Penny Apr 17 5:33pm CT
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Free-agent RB Rashaad Penny (Eagles) recently met with the Seattle Seahawks.

From TheHuddle

Christian Kirksey Apr 17 4:13pm CT
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Cleveland Browns OT Justin Murray, WR Rashard Higgins and LB Christian Kirksey were placed on the Reserve/Retired list Wednesday, April 17.

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Darius Slay Apr 17 3:50pm CT
Darius Slay

The Philadelphia Eagles concluded pre-draft visits with Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold and Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean this week. Philly is clearly interested in adding defensive back talent to its defense after allowing 252.7 passing yards per game last year (second-worst). The organization holds the No. 22 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is right in the range where Arnold and DeJean could be selected. Arnold, a 2023 first-team All-American, racked up 20 pass deflections and six interceptions over the last two seasons. DeJean totaled 13 pass deflections and seven interceptions in his final two collegiate campaigns, and he averaged 13.1 yards per punt return. Both players are considered top cornerback prospects in this cycle, so Philadelphia would make a great landing spot for either one as James Bradberry (30 years old) and Darius Slay (33 years old) have likely seen their best days in the NFL.

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Darius Slayton Apr 17 3:40pm CT
Darius Slayton

New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton has not yet reported to voluntary offseason workouts this week, according to ESPN's Jordan Raanan. The 27-year-old is seeking a contract extension after posting 50 receptions for 770 yards and four touchdowns last season. He led the team in receiving yards last year, and he has done so in four of the last five campaigns. He's due to make $6.2 million in 2024. Although Slayton is far from a fantasy football superstar, he's been productive at times -- making this a situation worth monitoring. He should be a top wideout target in New York's offense once again, though they might take a wideout in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and second-year receiver Jalin Hyatt could take on a larger role.

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Cam Brown Apr 17 3:30pm CT
Cam Brown

Free-agent linebacker Cam Brown is signing with the Miami Dolphins, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. Brown spent the last four seasons with the New York Giants after being selected by the organization in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft out of Penn State. In his first 60 NFL games, the 26-year-old accumulated 35 tackles (24 solo) and two forced fumbles. He posted seven special teams tackles last season, which is where he will likely contribute for the Fins in 2024.

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Jalen McMillan Apr 17 1:50pm CT
Jalen McMillan

Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan has a pre-draft visit scheduled with the Cincinnati Bengals on Wednesday. McMillan was a three-year starter in college and is projected to be a Day 2 selection in the upcoming NFL draft next week. The 22-year-old ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis in February and also has good size at 6-foot-1, 203 pounds. In his career with the Huskies, McMillan had 164 receptions for 2,143 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in 38 games played. Even though Cincy still has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins around, they are expected to take a receiver in this year's draft. They have three Day 3 picks, including two third-round picks at Nos. 80 and 97.

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Christian Wilkins Apr 17 1:30pm CT
Christian Wilkins

The Miami Dolphins will exercise the fifth-year option for linebacker Jaelan Phillips (Achilles), according to general manager Chris Grier. The former 18th overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft, Phillips has been an integral piece for the Dolphins defense since he entered the league three years ago. He set a Dolphins rookie record with 8.5 sacks in 2021 and had seven sacks in 2022 before playing in only eight games in 2023 because of an Achilles tear. Before his injury, he was on pace for a career-high 14 sacks. The Dolphins expect Phillips to make a full recovery for the start of the 2024 campaign. Miami can't afford for Phillips to regress after his injury after losing Christian Wilkins this offseason. If healthy in 2024, Phillips should be on the IDP fantasy radar.

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Devon Achane Apr 17 1:20pm CT
Devon Achane

Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has impressed fans after showing up to voluntary offseason workouts this month looking to be in excellent shape physically. Already one of the most impressive offensive rookies in 2023 with the most yards per rush (7.8) with a minimum of 100 attempts, his fantasy stock is soaring heading into his sophomore campaign this fall. Achane stands at only 5-foot-9, 188 pounds, but he packs a punch and is one of the fastest players overall in the NFL already. The only knocks on the 22-year-old are that he missed six games with injury, and that Raheem Mostert, who scored 21 total touchdowns in 2023, is still around. Achane had 103 carries for 800 yards and eight touchdowns in 11 regular-season games (four starts). Even with Mostert around, Achane, when healthy, has some of the most upside of any RB in the league.

From RotoBaller

Bo Nix Apr 17 1:10pm CT
Bo Nix

The New York Giants visited with Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler this week, according to sources. The Giants continue to do their due diligence on the QB position ahead of this month's NFL draft at all levels of the draft. Nix is a potential first-round pick, but he's not expected to go as early as New York's sixth overall pick. Rattler is seen as a mid-round selection. The G-Men have six picks in this year's draft with one in every round other than the seventh. They continue to say that Daniel Jones (knee), who is coming off a torn ACL, is their starter when healthy, but they are wisely planning to have better depth behind him in 2024 and beyond if he gets hurt again or disappoints this fall.

From RotoBaller

Brock Bowers Apr 17 1:10pm CT
Brock Bowers

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is visiting with the Los Angeles Chargers on Wednesday. Bowers also has visited with the Chicago Bears and New York Jets this week, so he's making the rounds with interested club's with the NFL draft coming late next week. Even after missing his pro-day workout with a minor hamstring injury, the 21-year-old is projected to be a top-15 pick in this first round next week after dominating as a pass-catching tight end in college with the Bulldogs. Bowers had 2,538 receiving yards and 31 total touchdowns in three seasons, even after missing a big chunk of 2023 due to an ankle injury. It's probably unlikely the Bolts would take Bowers fifth overall, but if he did end up in LA, we could easily see him being fantasy relevant in Year 1 after the team lost pass-catchers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason.

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