Lineup Prep: Divisional Round

Wed Jan 17 9:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

LaPorta is getting healthier


Here is to hoping that the playoff games are better this weekend. For the most part, the games last week just weren’t very good unless you were a fans of those teams. I’m hoping for some barn burners this week, going down to the last drive. It will make for a lot better viewing.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

I like a snow/cold game as much as anyone, but it does kind of stink for the teams involved when playing in the playoffs. You play all season in pretty normal conditions, but have to deal with brutal conditions when the playoffs hit. Again, I love to watch a snow game, but it probably would be better for the playoffs if teams didn’t have to deal with the awful winter weather. Oh well.

The Josh Allen experience is truly wild. He can drive you crazy with the turnovers and mistakes, but when he is playing well, Allen is really the best in the game. He showed that last week. Allen is just so tough defend, especially when he is running the ball more. The Bills kind of took that out of the game plan early in the season, but brought it back more after changing offensive coordinators. The change in philosophy has been a huge spark to the Bills offense.

I’m really excited about Jameson Williams next season. The Lions are starting to use him a lot more in normal routes than just as a deep threat. He is showing his ability as a route runner lately. Williams has a chance for a breakout season as long as he is healthy and playing. The big issue for Williams to start his career is just staying on the field. The ability is there for huge things. I’m ready to see what he can do next year.

It will be interesting to see what the Vikings do with their quarterback position this offseason. I almost think Kirk Cousins will be back and the team will draft a quarterback to learn from him. That might make the most sense and keep star receiver Justin Jefferson happy. This is one situation I’m going to keep a really close eye on this offseason because it has a lot of fantasy implications.

If I’m the Bears, I’m trading that No. 1 overall pick and loading up on more draft picks to surround Justin Fields with better talent. I know Caleb Williams is a stud and could be a fantastic pro, but Fields is no slouch. He made strides this year, especially late in the season. I think the franchise would do better to take advantage of the hype surround Williams and get a huge haul in a trade.

I don’t see Bill Belichick going to a team that doesn’t already have a franchise quarterback. You hear him interviewing with Atlanta, but that situation just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. I think he is going to go to a team that already has a top quarterback, so he doesn’t have to deal with the issues he had with the Patriots after losing Tom Brady.

And speaking of coaches, you have to wonder what is going to happen in Dallas after their stunning early-round exit in the playoffs. Mike McCarthy has been great during the regular season, but owner Jerry Jones doesn’t care about regular season wins. Jones wants Super Bowl titles. I would not be surprised if McCarthy is relieved of his job in the coming days.

I really thought the Browns operated better with Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback this season than Deshaun Watson. Flacco gave that passing game a spark and it produced huge numbers on a weekly basis. You have to think the Browns are really regretting going all in on Watson as their franchise quarterback. He certainly has not played near his past levels. The Browns really overpaid for Watson and could be feeling it for years to come.

News and Notes: The Bills released running back Leonard Fournette from the practice squad on Tuesday.

HOT PLAYS

Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions. LaPorta was able to play last week and didn’t look quite 100 percent, but still found the end zone. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games and scores two straight. He should be even healthier this week, meaning his production could be even better. Plus, he has a great matchup against a bad Bucs pass defense. The Bucs allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers. McCaffrey is always a must start and hot play, but especially this week. He gets a Packers defense that is the worst out of all the remaining playoff teams against the run. Green Bay was 28th against the run in the regular season and allowed the 13th most fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay allowed 200-plus rushing yards four times this season. We think McCaffrey is going to have a monster showing in this one, possibly pushing 200-plus total yards and 30 fantasy points.

Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens. Flowers had a breakout season as the top target at receiver the Ravens. He played really well late in the season, having 20-plus fantasy points three of five games. He has scores four of five games. Flowers keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. Look for more success this week against the Texans in what should be a high-scoring game. The Texans have allowed 265-plus passing yards three of six games.

COLD PLAYS 

Devin Singletary, RB, Texans. Singletary had a solid season, emerging as the starter for the Texans. He has scores two straight games and has been consistent for the Texans, especially the second half of the season. Singletary has a really tough matchup to keep up his solid play this week, though, playing the Ravens. Baltimore was 14th against the run during the regular season, allowing 109.4-rushing yards per game. Houston might need to rely on C.J. Stroud and the passing game moire than Singletary if they hope to have much offensive success.

David Montgomery, RB, Lions. Montgomery found the end zone again last week, giving him four straight games with a touchdown. He still hasn’t topped 65-rushing yards in any of those games and has just three catches during that stretch. He might be a scary play this week against a Bucs defense that allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season. The Bucs allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season and were fifth overall against the run.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is so hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but his numbers down the stretch haven’t been great for fantasy owners. He has just one touchdown each of his last three games. He has been pretty mediocre for fantasy teams. It might be more of the same this week against the Bills on the road. Buffalo has really played better defense down the stretch and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks during the regular season.

SLEEPERS

Baker Mayfield, QB, Bucs. Mayfield had a great opener in the playoffs, hitting the 300-yard mark while scoring three touchdowns. Mayfield has multiple touchdowns five of six games. He has three three-touchdown games during that stretch. He has a great matchup against the Lions, a team that allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season. Look for Mayfield to keep it going this week.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Packers. Wicks scored another touchdown last week, giving him scores three straight games. He keeps finding the end zone, making him a top red-zone target for the Packers. He could score again this week in a game the Packers are likely throwing often and playing from behind. This could lead to even more targets for Wicks. He could be a sneaky play for fantasy owners.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. Shakir scored his third touchdown of the season last week. He has 12-plus fantasy points two straight games. He has at least three catches four consecutive games. Shakir is getting more work with Gabe Davis out and playing well in an expanded role. Shakir has a chance for another solid game this week in what should be a high-scoring game with the Chiefs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Packers/49ers, Bucs/Lions.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
D.J. Chark Jul 26 10:50pm CT
D.J. Chark

Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver DJ Chark has been operating with the first team's offense during training camp. The Los Angeles Chargers have 320 vacated targets heading into the 2024 season, and this receiver room is ripe for the taking. Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston are the primary returning wideouts for quarterback Justin Herbert, and while they have the most experience with the former sixth pick of the 2020 NFL Draft, Chark does have a chance to outplay them. Chark broke out in 2019 with 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns but has not matched any of those totals since then. He'll be on his fourth team in four years, which shows some insight into how the teams he's been a part of view him. However, Chark has enough athleticism and will be afforded the best quarterback play of his career this year with LA. He's an afterthought in drafts right now as the NFFC WR88 (272 overall) and has some nice sleeper upside going into a year with such a murky WR room around him.

From RotoBaller

Matt Ammendola Jul 26 10:40pm CT
Matt Ammendola

With the news that Detroit Lions kicker Michael Badgley (hamstring) had suffered a significant season-ending hamstring injury, the Lions worked out a horde of potential replacements. During the workout, Detroit tried out Matt Ammendola, Lucas Havrisic, Matthew McCrane, and Andre Szmyt. Badgley didn't start for Detroit until Week 15 of the 2023 season, but he was a reliable option for them from then on. He went 7-of-7 on field goal attempts from that point forward while also knocking in 23-of-25 extra-point attempts. It is unclear which direction they will go to fill their need. Still, this situation requires monitoring as they project to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in 2024, and whoever ends up kicking for them will be a valuable asset for fantasy managers.

From RotoBaller

Chase Brown Jul 26 9:30pm CT
Chase Brown

Since the beginning of the Cincinnati Bengals training camp, Chase Brown has taken the majority of reps as the starting running back with the first-team offense. If Brown is indeed the preferred option to lead Zac Taylor's offense, fantasy managers are not drafting him high enough. The former Illinois product is currently the RB37 (No. 113 in ADP), while his backfield mate Zack Moss is going 20 picks before him -- the RB31 -- as the presumed lead back in the Bengals offense. It is presently unclear if Brown has superseded Moss in Cincinnati's pecking order, but this will obviously be a situation to monitor as we encroach on Week 1. Before Joe Burrow fell victim to multiple hindering injuries last season, the Bengals ranked in the top ten each of the prior two seasons in team points per game. Regardless of who the lead back is going into 2024, this should be an offense that presents many scoring opportunities.

From RotoBaller

Tua Tagovailoa Jul 26 9:13pm CT
Tua Tagovailoa

Dynasty | The Dolphins have signed quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to an extension. Dynasty Analysis: It's a four-year, $212.4 million extension, with a whopping $167 million in guaranteed money. It also makes him the highest paid player in Dolphins history and the third highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of annual salary. While he's had some struggles here and there and injuries are a serious concern (his concussion history is especially worrisome), Tagovailoa has performed admirably during his tenure. He'll remain to be a low-end QB1 in dynasty leagues but one that doesn't come with some risk until we see him make it through consecutive seasons healthy.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Jordan Love Jul 26 8:50pm CT
Jordan Love

The Green Bay Packers have officially decided to lock up quarterback Jordan Love long-term. Love and the Packers agreed to a new deal Friday evening, culminating in a four-year extension worth $220 million, including a $75 million signing bonus and $155 million guaranteed. The second-year starter will now be a part of the Packers for the foreseeable future, and his new deal puts him at the top of the list regarding annual average salary among quarterbacks. Despite playing just one season as a starter, the Packers saw enough from Love to warrant paying him a big bag of cash. He's the current QB8 in NFFC ADP (62nd overall). If Love has retained the gains that made him the fantasy QB6 in 2023, he'll provide a good bit of value at his current price and remains a target in every format for 2024.

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Ricky Pearsall Jul 26 7:20pm CT
Ricky Pearsall

San Francisco 49ers rookie first-round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall's (hamstring) work on the side at training camp has progressed to route-running at what looks to be full speed. Pearsall looks on track to return to training camp practice next week after opening camp on the Non-Football Injury list. Barring a setback, the 23-year-old should be ready in plenty of time for the Week 1 regular-season opener, although he'll most likely struggle for consistent playing time in his first year in the NFL if the 49ers don't trade disgruntled wideout Brandon Aiyuk. Pearsall was a surprise first-round selection at the end of Round 1 back in April, and his production didn't exactly stand out in college at Arizona State and Florida. Although he isn't much of a redraft fantasy target in 2024, Pearsall has an intriguing long-term outlook in San Fran and should take on a starting role as early as 2025.

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Andrei Iosivas Jul 26 4:00pm CT
Andrei Iosivas

With Cincinnati Bengals star wideout Ja'Marr Chase holding out early on in training camp, Andrei Iosivas has taken advantage of extra opportunities in practice and has been impressive. Iosivas spent the entire day on Wednesday working out of the slot for the first time in his life and looked like he belonged. He moved back outside on Thursday and caught everything thrown his way. The former sixth-rounder last year made significant strides in the offseason thanks to work with receivers coach Drew Lieberman in Atlanta. "He had a great spring," wide receivers coach Troy Walters said. "You want to get your best three players on the field. Right now, he's probably No. 3 and playing well." Iosivas will be competing with Jermaine Burton for the No. 3 job and could see a Year 2 leap if he wins the job.

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Kadarius Toney Jul 26 3:50pm CT
Kadarius Toney

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney is getting plenty of repetitions with the team's projected starters early in training camp practices this week. Toney was also seen doing drills with the running backs this week, so the Chiefs clearly haven't given up on his talent despite a disappointing year in 2023. The 25-year-old former first-rounder missed more time due to injury last year, too, playing in only 13 games (two starts). Toney finished with 27 catches (38 targets) for just 169 yards and one touchdown. Rashee Rice is expected to be suspended at some point in 2024, but the additions of rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown figure to make things even more difficult for Toney to find a significant role in the Chiefs' offense. In most leagues, fantasy managers are going to want to see evidence of Toney taking the next step before putting him on their roster.

From RotoBaller

Jaret Patterson Jul 26 3:40pm CT
Jaret Patterson

As long as Los Angeles Chargers running backs Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are healthy, they will be the unquestioned top two RBs on the team's depth chart. The real battle in training camp and in the preseason will be for the third and fourth spots on the depth chart, according to The Athletic's Daniel Popper. Jaret Patterson, who spent most of last year on the team's practice squad, got a notable amount of work with the first-team offense in training camp practice on Thursday. Edwards was limited to individual drills on Thursday, but it's notable that Patterson appears to be ahead of rookie sixth-rounder Kimani Vidal early in camp. The 24-year-old former undrafted free agent has averaged 4.0 yards per carry in his two NFL seasons with the Washington Commanders. Patterson is unlikely to see a big role for the Bolts this year.

From RotoBaller

Michael Wilson Jul 26 3:40pm CT
Michael Wilson

Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson has been running with the starting offense early in training camp practices, even after the team added Zay Jones in the offseason. Wilson led the starting unit on Thursday with three catches and is looking to build on a rookie season in which he had 38 receptions for 565 yards on 58 targets. In addition to his role on offense, Wilson also split repetition in punt-return drills with Greg Dortch and Xavier Weaver. Rookie first-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be a starter right away, so Wilson, Dortch and Jones figure to battle for the next two starting spots in camp and the preseason. The 24-year-old Wilson appears to be off to a good start. If he can remain as efficient as he was in 2023 with more opportunities in 2024, Wilson could be a popular early-season waiver-wire target in the Cardinals offense.

From RotoBaller

Ladd McConkey Jul 26 3:30pm CT
Ladd McConkey

The Athletic's Daniel Popper writes that Los Angeles Chargers second-round rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, DJ Chark Jr. and Joshua Palmer were working with the first-team offense in training camp practice on Thursday. As of early in camp, it appears that last year's first-rounder, Quentin Johnston, is the team's No. 4 wideout. The 22-year-old McConkey has already developed notable chemistry with quarterback Justin Herbert this offseason and could be one of his go-to targets now that both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are on other teams in 2024. McConkey is an excellent route-runner and deserves attention as at least a late-round flier for receiving depth in PPR fantasy leagues this fall. It's still early in camp, but McConkey's development is worth keeping a close eye on.

From RotoBaller

Jake Haener Jul 26 3:20pm CT
Jake Haener

New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener said he learned just before training camp that he had a rare form of skin cancer for his age pop up with a bump on his face, and he plans to follow up with another evaluation on an off day on Aug. 1. It remains to be seen if the 25-year-old will delay treatment for his skin cancer so that he can compete with rookie fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler for the backup QB job this summer behind starter Derek Carr. A fourth-rounder last year out of Fresno State, Haener was suspended for six games in 2023 and has yet to make his NFL debut. He has a shot to become the team's backup now that Jameis Winston is no longer in town, but there's no fantasy value here unless he wins the job and is thrust into the starting gig if Carr misses time with injury.

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Tua Tagovailoa Jul 26 3:10pm CT
Tua Tagovailoa

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is signing a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension on Friday, according to Athletes First. Tagovailoa and the Dolphins were able to work out a long-term contract extension during the first week of training camp. It makes sense after it was reported earlier on Friday that the 26-year-old former first-rounder was a full participant in training camp on practice. Tagovailoa earned this extension by leading the NFL with 4,624 passing yards in his fourth NFL campaign while also throwing a career-high 29 touchdowns to go along with 14 interceptions in 17 regular-season starts. Fantasy-wise, Tagovailoa has the ability to rack up the aerial yards with elite accuracy and two of the best receivers in the game at his disposal, but the absence of much of a rushing profile, his ceiling will likely be capped as a low-end QB1.

From RotoBaller

Darious Williams Jul 26 3:10pm CT
Darious Williams

Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay confirmed at training camp on Thursday that reserve cornerback Derion Kendrick (knee) suffered a torn ACL this week at practice. Kendrick will now be forced to miss the entire 2024 season after getting hurt in the first practice session this summer. The 23-year-old entered the NFL as a sixth-round pick (212th overall) by the Rams in 2022. In his first two seasons, he recorded 92 tackles (77 solo), one interception and 14 pass breakups in 32 games (18 starts). LA's secondary is a beat bit up already early in camp, as Darious Williams is also dealing with a hamstring injury early on. Tre'Davious White is also an injury risk after suffering serious injuries to his knee and Achilles the last two years.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Jul 26 2:00pm CT
Gabriel Davis

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) was spotted at Thursday's practice in training camp. Davis missed some time late last season with the Buffalo Bills due to a sprained PCL, but it looks like he'll be a full participant at camp to begin familiarizing himself with Jacksonville's offense ahead of the Aug. 10 preseason opener against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. The 25-year-old deep threat was as erratic as ever in 2023, going catchless in four games during the regular season and exceeding 20 fantasy points on five other occasions, and he'll battle for targets on the perimeter with rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. in 2024. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence has formed a clear connection with slot man Christian Kirk over the past two years, so Davis is likely going to give both the Jags and fantasy managers plenty of headaches as a weekly boom-or-bust WR4/flex option this fall.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Worthy Jul 26 1:50pm CT
Xavier Worthy

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy (illness) returned to practice at Friday's training camp. After missing a few days with an illness, Worthy is back on the field for valuable reps. The Chiefs spent the 28th overall pick in this spring's NFL draft on Worthy to bolster their mishmash receiving corps from 2023, and the rookie wideout should have a pretty clear runway to a starting role on the perimeter alongside new acquisition Marquise Brown. Worthy's ADP finds itself in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts as a WR3 value, but his stock is also contingent upon whether or not Rashee Rice is suspended at some point this summer. After logging a blazing 4.21 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the combine, the 21-year-old Texas product's game-breaking speed could mesh well with the huge arm of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes if the two are able to establish a rapport this fall.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Love Jul 26 1:20pm CT
Jordan Love

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters on Friday that he did not have an update on quarterback Jordan Love's contract status. Love is not currently participating in practice as he awaits a contract extension. General manager Brian Gutekunst said earlier this week that he believes the two sides are close to reaching an agreement, and there's still plenty of time for a deal to be worked out before the regular season begins in September. Green Bay's preseason opener is on Aug. 10 against the hosting Cleveland Browns. The 25-year-old former first-round pick proved to be an instant success during his first full season as a starter for the Packers, throwing for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns with 11 interceptions while picking up four additional scores on the ground in 16 games in 2023. Love remains safe to draft as a low-end QB1 in the second half of fantasy drafts this summer.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Jackson Jul 26 1:00pm CT
Lamar Jackson

The Baltimore Ravens announced that quarterback Lamar Jackson (illness) will remain sidelined due to his illness and will not take part in Friday's training camp practice. Jackson will continue to undergo further evaluation and receive care from the medical staff. The 27-year-old two-time MVP returned to the practice field on Wednesday but apparently is still under the weather from an illness that he first came down with last weekend. He should be fully recovered well before the start of the 2024 regular season, so fantasy managers should have nothing to worry about. When healthy, Jackson is one of the most dangerous dual-threat signal-callers in the league and is a top-five fantasy QB. What he lacks with his arm, he more than makes up for with his rushing ability. Jackson had a career-high 3,678 passing yards with 24 touchdown passes and seven picks in 16 regular-season starts in 2023.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Gipson Jul 26 12:40pm CT
Xavier Gipson

New York Jets wide receiver/kick returner Xavier Gipson (leg) will miss a week or two of training camp with a "lower-extremity" injury. Head coach Robert Saleh said that Gipson injured his leg in practice on Thursday. The 23-year-old second-year player finished his rookie season last year with only 21 receptions for 229 yards and no touchdowns in 17 games played, but he also worked as the Jets' primary kickoff and punt returner on special teams. He's going to have to stay healthy this summer to hold off the likes of Tarik Cohen and Isaiah Davis for the return jobs, though. Even if Gipson wins WR3 duties for the Jets this year, he's unlikely to be much of a fantasy option, even with quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning from his Achilles injury.

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Demario Douglas Jul 26 12:30pm CT
Demario Douglas

New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (hand) is dealing with a hand injury that has limited him the last couple of days in training camp practices. Head coach Jerod Mayo called Douglas day-to-day on Friday. Douglas' injury is minor, but he's missing valuable repetitions as he looks to continue to impress in a Patriots receiving corps that is looking for players to step up in 2024. The 23-year-old second-year wideout was impressive in offseason workouts in the spring after going for 49 catches, 561 yards and no touchdowns in his rookie campaign in 2023 after he was taken in the sixth round out of Liberty. Douglas is one to watch entering his second year in the league, but with competition from rookies Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker in an offense led by quarterback Jacoby Brissett, he's probably going to go undrafted in standard 12-team leagues.

From RotoBaller