Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Treylon Burks May 9 3:20pm CT
Treylon Burks

Despite the Tennessee Titans signing veteran wide receiver Tyler Boyd this week, head coach Brian Callahan and the organization still have hope for third-year wideout Treylon Burks. "We've made very clear to Treylon that the signing of Tyler is not about him. It's about helping our team get better, adding better players to our team, making us a competitive football team," Callahan said. "What he's done and how he's worked has been great, and I'm anticipating him still being able to play a good role for us." While the Boyd signing almost surely pushes Burks to the WR4 role and destroys any 2024 fantasy football value he had, it sounds like the team is not going to trade him this offseason as many have speculated. Burks was a promising prospect coming out of Arkansas, but he's totaled just 665 receiving yards and one touchdown through his first two NFL seasons. He might be worth holding in deep dynasty leagues, but it'd be surprising if he's on the fantasy radar in redraft formats.

From RotoBaller

Ben Skowronek May 9 2:00pm CT
Ben Skowronek

The Houston Texans acquired wide receiver Ben Skowronek from the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday, according to sources. The Rams were set to waiver Skowronek, but the Texans swooped in before he hit waivers to get something done to add receiving depth behind Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, Noah Brown, John Metchie III and others. The 26-year-old Skowronek was the Rams' seventh-round pick in 2021 and has mostly been limited to a role on special teams in his three years in the NFL. That will likely continue to be the case with his move to Houston, and he won't be on the fantasy radar at all. In his three years in the NFL in LA, Skowronek only had 58 receptions for 575 yards and one touchdown on 93 targets in 45 games (12 starts).

From RotoBaller

Keon Coleman May 9 1:40pm CT
Keon Coleman

In what is the weakest wide receiving corps the Buffalo Bills have had in several seasons, rookie second-round wideout Keon Coleman should start right away in his first NFL season alongside veteran Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. Coleman has a lot of potential, but asking a 21-year-old to produce in a way he never has at a higher level of football seems like asking for too much, too soon, according to The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia. Depth is also an issue for this unit, with journeyman veteran Mack Hollins as their top reserve. Coleman has good size at 6-foot-3, 213 pounds, but his lack of production at Florida State made him a polarizing draft prospect. The good news is that he's going to have his opportunities right away, although that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a starting fantasy option on a weekly basis right away.

From RotoBaller

Dawson Knox May 9 1:40pm CT
Dawson Knox

Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox likely knows a reduced role is on the way again for him in 2024, although he is a favorite of quarterback Josh Allen's in the locker room, so it remains to be seen how much he'll be on the sidelines in favor of second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen may need to rely on Kincaid more to pick up a big amount of slack to keep the offense moving with an unproven receiver unit this year. Buffalo moved away from heavy usage of 12 personnel early in 2023 and mostly settled into 11 personnel. If that's the plan again in 2024, it will be interesting to see how they divvy up the snaps between Kincaid and Knox. Either way, unless Kincaid misses time with an injury, it's going to be hard to justify starting Knox outside of two-TE leagues.

From RotoBaller

James Cook May 9 1:30pm CT
James Cook

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook bounced back from being benched last year and enters his third season in the NFL in 2024 as the unquestioned lead back with a giant gap between him and either Ty Johnson or rookie Ray Davis. Cook should continue to push toward some of the heaviest involvement the Bills have seen in recent years out of their top back. Johnson's game is similar to Cook's, so he'll likely have a game-day role when Cook needs a breather. The Bills are hoping Davis can add power and short-yardage ability, something the team has been wanting to add for years to the backfield. The 24-year-old Cook had a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023 but added just two rushing TDs. What Cook lacks in scoring opportunities, he could make up for with his pass-catching abilities and sheer volume in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Cedric Tillman May 9 1:20pm CT
Cedric Tillman

The Athletic's Zac Jackson writes that the Cleveland Browns believe wide receiver Cedric Tillman can make a second-year leap in 2024. Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore figure to start in most three-receiver sets this year, but Tillman should have an opportunity for a bigger role as the No. 4 as the season progresses. The 24-year-old third-round pick last year out of Tennessee caught 21 of his 44 targets for 224 yards and no touchdowns in 14 games (three starts) in 2023 in his rookie season. Behind Tillman, David Bell, rookie Jamari Thrash, James Proche II, Jaelon Darden and Michael Woods II will have to battle for playing time in training camp this summer. Tillman won't be worth drafting in standard-sized leagues this fall, but he could become intriguing as a waiver-wire pickup if one of the three starters goes down with injury at any point.

From RotoBaller

Ben Skowronek May 9 1:10pm CT
Ben Skowronek

The Los Angeles Rams released wide receiver Ben Skowronek on Thursday, according to a source. The former seventh-round pick in 2021 out of Notre Dame had emerged into a team captain last year but also had a career-low eight receptions on 12 targets for 66 yards and his first career touchdown in 17 regular-season games (zero starts). The 26-year-old has mostly contributed on special teams in his three-year NFL career and will likely continue to do so wherever he winds up next. In his three years in LA, Skowronek caught 58 of his 93 targets for 575 receiving yards and just one touchdown in 45 games played (12 starts). He'll be off the fantasy radar wherever he lands next.

From RotoBaller

D'Onta Foreman May 9 1:10pm CT
D'Onta Foreman

There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Cleveland Browns' backfield heading into this summer with running back Nick Chubb (knee) months away from having a timetable to return. Nyheim Hines (knee) is also recovering from a torn ACL as well. D'Onta Foreman figures to operate as the team's short-yardage back, while Jerome Ford could go anywhere from first in line to a specialized role while mostly helping in the passing game. Pierre Strong Jr. and John Kelly Jr. round out the RB room. The Browns have nice depth at the position, but the pecking order and specific roles are to be determined based on Chubb's availability and effectiveness. Foreman's fantasy value will hinge on Chubb as well, but in a best-case scenario if Chubb isn't ready for the start of the season, he'll be a touchdown-dependent RB3/flex.

From RotoBaller

Allen Robinson May 9 9:40am CT
Allen Robinson

The New York Giants signed free-agent wide receiver Allen Robinson on Thursday, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The move to acquire a cheap veteran makes sense considering the weak group of pass-catchers on New York's roster, but Robinson has looked like a shell of his former self over the last three seasons. After two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, Robinson has totaled just 1,029 yards and four touchdowns over the last three campaigns. He tallied 280 yards and no touchdowns with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2023. Although he could provide value as an experienced leader in the locker room, it'd be surprising if he made an impact in fantasy football. Rookie first-round pick Malik Nabers is expected to be the No. 1 wide receiver for Daniel Jones right away, while Jalin Hyatt, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayon with compete for looks behind him.

From RotoBaller

Tyler Boyd May 9 9:35am CT
Tyler Boyd

Dynasty | The Titans have signed wide receiver Tyler Boyd. Dynasty Analysis: Amazingly, Boyd has already spend eight years in the league (all with the Bengals). Over the span of his career, he's posted 513 catches for exactly 6,000 yards with 31 touchdowns. The Titans were steadfast in their approach to improve their offense and have now added Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Boyd to a new-look team. The move will certainly have fantasy implications, most notably pushing Treylon Burks down one more spot in the pecking order. Boyd remains a low-ceiling player to have on a dynasty roster but he could have real short-term value should an injury (or a suspension) occur with Hopkins or Ridley.

Rashaad Penny May 9 9:35am CT
Rashaad Penny

Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers are signing running back Rashaad Penny. Dynasty Analysis: Penny is going to compete with rookie Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and Raheem Blackshear for a roster spot this Summer as nothing here should be looked at as guaranteed. Penny has had his moments in the league, including a stretch in Seattle where he was the best fantasy football player in the world for about a month. Unfortunately, injuries have always held him back and he wasn't really even able to sniff the field last year in Philadelphia. Penny's value has dropped all the way down to "watch list," but he'd certainly be roster worthy should he make the team this Fall.

Allen Robinson May 9 8:33am CT
Allen Robinson

Free-agent WR Allen Robinson (Steelers) agreed to an undisclosed deal with the New York Giants Thursday, May 9.

From TheHuddle

Zay Jones May 9 12:33am CT
Zay Jones

Free-agent WR Zay Jones (Jaguars) is scheduled to visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday, May 9, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

From TheHuddle

Sam Darnold May 8 10:30pm CT
Sam Darnold

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold could be named the team's Week 1 starter over first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. As Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com writes, "It's only a matter of time before McCarthy becomes the Vikings' starting quarterback [...] but it is not likely to happen as quickly as some fans might hope, and if anything, the Vikings are poised to err on the side of methodical caution." Such a scenario could see Minnesota let Darnold, whom they signed this past offseason when Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta, start a few games before transitioning to McCarthy. Darnold has struggled to support major fantasy production from his playmakers at previous stops, including the Jets and Panthers, so fantasy managers might want to temper expectations with players like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to start the year. Darnold himself falls to the low-end QB3 tier in fantasy football drafts.

From RotoBaller

Luke Musgrave May 8 10:20pm CT
Luke Musgrave

Green Bay Packers tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft can elevate the offense to the next level, according to tight ends coach John Dunn. "I think in terms of the creativity, it's limitless," Dunn told the media on Wednesday. Musgrave and Kraft were both members of the 2023 draft class and impressed in their own roles throughout last season. Musgrave was the Packers' top tight end for their first 10 games before a lacerated kidney caused him to miss six weeks. With Musgrave sidelined, Kraft emerged as one of Jordan Love's favorite targets, averaging four catches and 47 yards per game. When Musgrave returned in Week 18, he caught one pass for 11 yards while Kraft tallied three receptions for 31 yards. Long story short, Green Bay feels confident that it has two talented, young, impactful playmakers at the tight end position and is prepared to utilize them both in creative ways throughout the 2024 season. Until we get more clarity on their respective roles, they both rank as fringe top-24 options at the tight end position in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Josh Jacobs May 8 10:10pm CT
Josh Jacobs

Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs believes he has a chip on his shoulder, according to running backs coach Ben Sirmans. "I think he's coming in with a little bit of a chip on his shoulder because we all have something to prove," Sirmans told the media on Wednesday. "I think he wants to prove we made the right decision in investing in him." Jacobs doesn't necessarily have a whole lot more to prove after tallying 3,154 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns over his final two seasons with the Las Vegas Raiders. However, his signing with Green Bay did surprise many NFL fans, so perhaps he feels a little extra motivation to silence the critics and make sure he lives up to every penny of his four-year, $48 million deal. The Packers parted ways with fellow veteran Aaron Jones this offseason and (barring any unforeseen additions) will enter 2024 with a backfield headlined by Jacobs, AJ Dillon, and rookie MarShawn Lloyd. Given his track record as an every-down back in Vegas, Jacobs easily has the most fantasy appeal of the bunch, ranking as a low-end RB1 heading into drafts.

From RotoBaller

Zay Jones May 8 10:00pm CT
Zay Jones

Free-agent wide receiver Zay Jones will visit with the Kansas City Chiefs next, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.com. Jones, who was cut loose by the Jacksonville Jaguars recently, has already visited with the Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Dallas Cowboys. All of those teams have varying levels of need for a new wide receiver, but Kansas City could be the most appealing for Jones given that they are competitive year in and year out, offer the opportunity to catch passes from an elite quarterback, and currently have a significant void near the top of their depth chart. It's no secret that second-year receiver Rashee Rice could be facing a lengthy suspension for a pair of off-the-field issues this offseason. Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy would benefit from playing alongside someone like Jones, especially if Rice does end up missing time. Such a dynamic would give Brown, Worthy, and Jones plenty of opportunities to carve out meaningful volume, though Brown would likely have first dibs on the No. 1 receiver role. Therefore, any free-agent deal for Jones would likely keep him off the fantasy radar in a typical 12-team league, at least for the time being.

From RotoBaller

Curtis Samuel May 8 8:33pm CT
Curtis Samuel

Buffalo Bills WR Curtis Samuel could be used out of the backfield this season by offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who utilized Samuel as a runner while the two were with the Carolina Panthers.

Fantasy Spin: Samuel saw a career-high 41 carries and ran for 200 yards in 2020 with Brady running the offense in Carolina. Samuel should already have a chance to carve out a solid role in the passing game thanks to Buffalo's overhauled receiving corps, and a few carries a game would only boost his value. He has upside as a flex option.

From TheHuddle

Nyheim Hines May 8 8:23pm CT
Nyheim Hines

Cleveland Browns RB Nyheim Hines (knee) said he should be 'good to go' for the start of training camp.

From TheHuddle

Nyheim Hines May 8 7:50pm CT
Nyheim Hines

Cleveland Browns running back Nyheim Hines (knee) said that he expects to be ready to go for training camp in late July despite having surgery to fix a torn left ACL last August. As long as Hines doesn't have any setbacks with his surgically repaired knee, he will be in the mix for snaps on third downs, especially with Nick Chubb coming off a devastating knee injury of his own last year. The 27-year-old Hines will have a low floor and ceiling, though, in PPR fantasy leagues with Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman also competing for backfield touches in Cleveland. The former fourth-round selection by the Indianapolis Colts in 2018 out of North Carolina State has a total of 240 receptions (309 targets) for 1,778 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his five NFL campaigns. Hines hasn't appeared in an NFL game since 2022.

From RotoBaller