Postseason Shootout | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 11

Wed Nov 16 9:02am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Rodgers can have big Week 11

It is hard to believe, but the season is in Week 11. There are a just a few weeks left before the playoffs in many formats. Every game is important throughout the year, but these games late in the season carry so much importance at this time of the year. A slip up now could mean the difference between making and missing the playoffs. So get those lineups in order and plan for the future. It is never a bad idea to start looking a week ahead to make sure your lineup has all the right pieces in place to get a victory. A proactive owner is a winning owner.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

It was great to see Christian Watson finally show what he is capable of, but I’m not convinced he will be consistent in this offense the rest of the year. I think he will be hit or miss, but should have some big games along the way. I’m not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but I just want to throw some caution to owners before they throw all their FAAB at Watson this week. He might continue to frustrate fantasy owners going forward.

I’m not sure Tua Tagovailoa gets enough love. Sure, he still misses on some throws you would like to see him make, but he has played very well this year, especially after returning from his concussion. He has three straight games with three touchdown passes. He also has three 300-yard games. Tagovailoa has two of his receivers in the top 10 in fantasy receiver scoring. He is doing a great job in this offense and should continue his hot play going forward. He seems to be gaining more confidence every week.

T.J. Hockenson has been targeted 19 times in two games with the Vikings. He is going to be a huge part of this offense going forward. Hockenson is the second best target in the offense behind Justin Jefferson. And what Jefferson playing out of his mind, this might actually help Hockenson find more room to run in the opposition’s secondary. He is going to be a top-five fantasy tight end the rest of the way.

I continue to be impressed by Geno Smith. He really is playing some great football. He is making good decisions and some amazing throws on a weekly basis. I don’t think anyone saw it coming outside of Geno Smith himself. He has multiple touchdowns four straight games. He has topped 20 fantasy points six of 10 games. He is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. Smith has a real chance to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback all season long. He is one of the best stories in football this season.

Jonathan Taylor has been a bust this year but last week was really encouraging. He looked healthy and played a ton, playing a season high 94 percent of the snaps. With Nyheim Hines gone, Taylor will be out there a lot more on passing downs. This really helps his fantasy value. Hopefully, his poor play most of the year didn’t doom your teams. He could be in for a strong finish if last week is any indication.

With Cooper Kupp out, I like both Allen Robinson and Tyler Higbee for big finishes to their fantasy seasons. Robinson has been a bust to date, but his targets could really soar with Kupp out. Kupp averaged 10.9 targets per game, so that is a lot of looks that will be going to other players. Robinson is more than capable based on his track record. His season high in targets is just seven. Higbee is the other Ram that is really intriguing. He already showed his potential last week, catching eight passes for 73 yards on eight targets. He already had three games with double-digit targets. Both these guys see their stock rise with the unfortunate injury to Kupp.

I’ll be honest. I have no idea what to do with Kyle Pitts at this point. He is getting the targets and his air yards are off the charts. All those indicators mean the huge game is there for the taking any given week. Unfortunately, those games have been few and far between. The poor quarterback play has impacted Pitts more than anything. Until Marcus Mariota starts to play better, Pitts will continue to be all over the place for fantasy teams. He has been as frustrating as any fantasy player this season.

News and Notes: The Packers released wide receiver Amari Rodgers and running back Kylin Hill on Tuesday. Rodgers has fallen out of favor with the Packers, especially after losing a fumble during last week’s game. Hill was serving as depth for the Packers at running back, getting little playing time. . . . .The Vikings signed free agent receiver Dede Westbrook to their practice squad on Tuesday. Westbrook has plenty of experience and some success, so he could work his way into the lineup at some point for the Vikings. . . . . .The Texans claimed running back Eno Benjamin off waivers on Tuesday. Benjamin was surprise release by the Cardinals. He gives the Texans some additional depth at running back and could be the top backup before long.

HOT PLAYS

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Rodgers had his best fantasy game of the season last week, scoring 23.6 fantasy points. He had three touchdowns for the first time all season. And he did this against a very good Cowboys defense. And while Rodgers hasn’t been great this year, he has been consistent, having multiple touchdowns all but three games. He can keep up his hot ways this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 31st against the pass, allowing 272.6-passing yards per game.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Commanders. Gibson might not be starting anymore but he is still helping fantasy teams. He has at least 14 fantasy points three of four games. The Commanders gave him 14 carries last week, which tied a season high. And his work in the passing game gives him a high weekly floor, having at least three receptions six of seven games. Gibson should perform well again this week against the Texans, a team that allows the most fantasy points to running backs. Houston has allowed at least 136-rushing yards all but one game this season.

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins has double-digit fantasy points all but the first game of the season. He has not been outstanding but very consistent. And with JaMarr Chase out of the lineup, he can be the go-to option in this passing attack. He tied a season high in receptions his last game out with seven. Higgins should get a heavy workload this week against the Steelers, a team that allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.

David Montgomery, RB, Bears. With Khalil Herbert placed on Injured Reserve, this leaves Montgomery to get nearly all the work at running back. He no longer has to split the workload, which is very encouraging for his fantasy value. Montgomery hasn’t done a whole lot this year but does have three games with double-digit fantasy points and a 100-yard showing in Week 2. He is setup for maybe his best game of the season this week against the Falcons. Atlanta allows the 12th most fantasy points to running backs and gave up 232-rushing yards to the Panthers last week. Atlanta has allowed 169 or more rushing yards two of three games.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys. Schultz is a different player with Dak Prescott as his starting quarterback. He has two straight games with at least 13 fantasy points and at least five receptions three consecutive games. He gets a heavy workload with Prescott as the signal caller. He is a legit TE1 for fantasy teams. Schultz can produce big once again in Week 11 against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends and rank 29th overall abasing the pass.

COLD PLAYS

D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions. Sure, Swift scored a touchdown last week but he still didn’t hit double-digit fantasy points. That is pretty hard to do. He wasn’t even listed on the Injury Report for Week 10, but still didn’t get near a full workload. Swift played behind both Jamaal Williams and Justin Jackson much of the game. Swift is so hard for fantasy owners to trust right now, getting very sporadic work. If you have better options, go with them in Week 11. Swift gets the Giants, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith scored a touchdown last week and was targeted eight times in the game. That was the good news. The bad news is he had just 39 yards. He has failed to top 50 yards four straight gams and five of six. He has been a little boom or bust for fantasy owners. He might get volume again this week but look for his yardage numbers to struggle once again. Smith plays a shutdown Colts pass defense. Indy allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank seventh overall against the pass.

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. Carr scored had two touchdowns for the second straight game last week. He has looked a little better lately, but his overall numbers still haven’t been great this year. He has been more mediocre than good for a team that is underachieving. Carr has a real tough matchup this week against the Broncos, a team that held him out of the end zone in Week 4. Carr did not even reach 200-passing yards in that game. Denver allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and are first overall against the pass. Go with other options at quarterback in Week 11.

Michael Carter, RB, Jets. Carter had a season high in rushing yards his last time out, rushing 12 times for 76 yards and a touchdown. He has been decent much of the year, having double-digit fantasy points five times. But he has been shutdown rushing at times and that could happen again this week. He gets the Patriots, a team that held him to seven carries for 26 yards in Week 8. The Patriots allow the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. New England has allowed fewer than 80-rushing yards three of four games.

George Pickens, WR, Steelers. Pickens scored his second touchdown of the season last week, but that came on the ground. He has been a little quiet catching the ball the last few weeks, having three receptions for 32 yards on seven targets his last two games. He is a little hard to trust, especially in matchups that aren’t too favorable. And a game against the Bengals isn’t a great one for him. He had a catch for three yards on three targets against the Bengals in Week 1. Cincinnati allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

SLEEPERS

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants. Slayton had a season-high 95 yards last week and scored his second touchdown of the season. He has scores two of three games and reached double-digit fantasy points in all those games. He has really emerged as the go-to receiver for the Giants passing game. Slayton can reach double-digit fantasy points once again in Week 11 against the Lions. Detroit is playing better defense the last few weeks but still allow the seventh most fantasy points to receivers and rank 27th overall against the pass.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. Gordon has not taken off since becoming the starter for the Broncos. He hasn’t been all bad, though. He has two straight games with double-digit fantasy points. He has double-digit touches three straight games, getting the chances in the Broncos offense. If Gordon gets that workload this week, he should do well. He plays the Raiders, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. Las Vegas allowed more than 200-rushing yards last week.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. Garoppolo didn’t have a passing touchdown but ran one in last week. He failed to top 20 fantasy points in the game, breaking a streak of four straight games with 20-plus fantasy points. He has been very consistent since becoming the starter in San Francisco. Look for Garoppolo to top 20 fantasy points this week against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks and 17-passing touchdowns. He is a solid low-end QB1 for this week

Kenyan Drake, RB, Ravens. Gus Edwards is expected to return this week, but Drake might carry the load with his hot ways lately. He has 16-plus fantasy points three of four games. He had a season-high 24 carries his last time out. Drake is a solid No. 2 fantasy back for teams in Week 11 against the Panthers. Carolina allows the fifth most fantasy points to running backs. The Panthers have allowed 135-plus rushing yards three straight games. Carolina gave up more than 200-rushing yards to a below average Bengals rush offense just two weeks ago. Don’t be afraid to play Drake despite the return of Edwards.

Tyler Conklin, TE, Jets. If you can believe this, Conklin is sixth overall in fantasy tight end scoring. And his is after a game that he had just a catch for seven yards. He has been solid most of the year, having four games with double-digit fantasy points. And his best game of the season came against his opponent this week, the Patriots. In Week 8 against New England, Conklin has six receptions for 79 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots have struggled to stop tight ends much of the season, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bears/Falcons, Chiefs/Chargers, Cowboys/Vikings.

Low Scoring Games: Titans/Packers, Jets/Patriots, Rams/Saints.

Bye Weeks: Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, Bucs.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 11

The Paur Report