Lineup Prep: Super Bowl
Wed Feb 8 11:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
It is hard to believe, but the last game of the season is this week. It has been a great season, so let’s hope it ends on a high note. The matchup certainly is a good one. I’m excited about the game and ready for the weekend of Super Bowl activities.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Is there a better day of the year than Super Bowl Sunday? I’m not so sure. The food. The friends. The football. What more could you ask for? I am firing up my smoker early Sunday morning like a kid on Christmas. I’ll be up early, getting ready for the big game. And you can’t forget about the commercials, which are always entertaining. This day has it all. Bring it on!
As for the game, this is a tough one to pick. I really think you can make a strong case for either team. For me, I am going to pick the Chiefs. I like the experience factor of being in the game before for the Chiefs. Plus, I think the Chiefs were tested more during the playoffs this year, which should help the Chiefs in this game. So I like Patrick Mahomes and company to come out on top Sunday. It will be a close game with the Chiefs pulling out a 31-28 victory.
I do think Tom Brady is done. I don’t think he comes back from this retirement announcement. It finally seems official. And he goes out as he best quarterback of all time. Love him or hate him, the guy had an amazing career. The numbers and Super Bowl wins don’t lie. There might not be another one like him ever. Thanks for the amazing ride Mr. Brady.
It is interesting to see the news break that the Chargers are likely to release both Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett this offseason. Allen has been a mainstay in the Chargers passing game for several seasons, but has shown signs of decline in recent years and injuries are a concern. The Chargers will need to find a replacement, though. My guess is they do this through the draft, so keep an eye on that this offseason. Either way, there are going to be some new faces in Los Angeles to help the Chargers passing game.
The Vikings made a strong hire to help revamp the defense, hiring Brian Flores to take over as defensive coordinator. He has a strong track record and plenty of success. This could help the Vikings take their team to a new level. The offense is already top notch. If the defense can get it going, watch out for the Vikings next year. This team could be really dangerous.
The Lamar Jackson saga in Baltimore is going to be really interesting to watch. The early reports are the two sides could be 100 million dollars apart in contract talks. This is quite a difference. And it really seems like Jackson isn’t going to cave. I’m still not sure that Jackson ends up back in Baltimore despite the Ravens saying they aren't going to let him go. This is definitely a situation to watch.
News and Notes: Receiver A.J. Green announced his retirement on Monday. Green had a great career, especially during his playing days with the Bengals. . . . .The Colts acquired the Bills' fifth-round pick to satisfy the conditional draft pick requirement in the Nyheim Hines trade from earlier this season.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has been very consistent down the stretch as the starter for the Chiefs. He has double-digit fantasy points five straight games and nine of 10 games. And it was really encouraging to see him get so much work in the passing game his last game, catching a season-high five passes for 59 yards. Pacheco could get a lot of work in the passing game once again this week with the Chiefs having injuries at receiver. Plus, he could do some damage on the ground against the Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed 115-plus rushing yards six of their last seven games.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith has emerged as an elite fantasy receiver this year. He has been very good down the stretch. He was quiet his last game, but has at least 13 fantasy points seven of his last eight games. He has double-digit targets three of five games. Smith is getting his work and producing. Expect more of the same this week against a Chiefs secondary that can be leaky. The Chiefs have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to receivers during the regular season.
COLD PLAYS
Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles. Goedert has been fine since returning from injury in Week 16, but not off the charts by any means. He has fewer than 50 yards three of four games. He also has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of five games. Goedert is a little erratic right now and it could be more of the same this week against the Chiefs. Goedert is an iffy play in this matchup.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon had a great finish to his regular season, but done very little in the playoffs. He has fewer than four fantasy points each of his playoff games. He has 15 carries for just 26 yards and just two receptions. His lack of work in the passing game is the big concern. McKinnon is a hard player to trust for fantasy teams after his last two playoff games.
SLEEPERS
Skyy Moore, WR, Chiefs. The Chiefs have all sorts of injuries at receiver, so Moore could play a bigger role in the Super Bowl. He had a season-high seven targets his last game, so the potential is certainly there for big things in this offense if he gets the looks. Moore could be a worth a look for fantasy teams in an expanded role.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Eagles. Gainwell did not have double-digit carries the entire regular season, but has reached that mark in each of the Eagles playoff games. He has 26 carries his last two games, getting a lot more work in the Eagles offense. Gainwell has at least nine fantasy points his last two games. The Eagles obviously like the way he is playing, so don’t be surprised if he gets double-digit touches once again. And if he gets those touches, he can help fantasy teams.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Eagles/Chiefs.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson requested a trade on Wednesday, according to his agent, Harold Lewis, as he seeks more long-term security after the two sides settled on a one-year extension last year worth $21 million. However, a source said that the Bengals are not interested in trading Hendrickson. It's not surprise that Hendrickson is looking for a new deal after posting a career-high 17.5 sacks, which was second in the NFL behind Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt. It was the highest total for a Bengals player since sacks became a statistic in 1982. He also finished 11th in pass-rush win rate as an edge rusher and created the second-most sacks (18) in the league. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson is going to be a very coveted defensive lineman in IDP fantasy formats this fall after his big 2023 campaign.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers are "more likely" to trade wide receiver Deebo Samuel than Brandon Aiyuk during this year's 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. Aiyuk's name has been mentioned in trade rumors all offseason, but now Samuel is the more likely pass-catcher to be dealt. Samuel, 28, is two years older than Aiyuk but has more versatility in the offense. However, Samuel also has a salary cap hit north of $20 million in 2025. Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal as he heads into the fifth and final contract of his rookie deal, but the Niners have been hesitant to give him a market deal given their other financial commitments. San Francisco took rookie pass-catcher Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall pick in the first round on Thursday night, potentially foreshadowing a trade of either Samuel or Aiyuk in the coming days.
From RotoBaller
In recent weeks, both the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings reached out to the Los Angeles Chargers to see if they had any interest in trading quarterback Justin Herbert, according to league sources. The answer they got very quickly was "a flat no." Not only do the Chargers love Herbert, but they also would have had to take on a $63.5 million salary cap charge in 2024 at a time they have $32.3 million of cap space. Meanwhile, the Patriots took QB Drake Maye third overall and the Vikings took QB J.J. McCarthy 11th overall in the first round of this year's NFL draft. There's still a lot to like about the 26-year-old Herbert, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he lost Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason and is now in a run-first offense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Bears made this all but a certainty when they traded Justin Fields to the Steelers earlier this off-season. Williams will immediately take over the franchise and will be in a unique situation as a rookie starter with an offense that isn't exactly lacking talent. The likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and D'Andre Swift should be enough to keep his dynasty value high even as he learns the position. Williams should be immediately installed as a low-end QB1 and an easy pick at the top of a Superflex league rookie draft.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders decided to make Daniels the face of the franchise and took him with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's hard to blame him as he put up video game numbers last season at LSU. It's difficult to see any other quarterback with a higher ceiling than Daniels has, though it's also evident there's a low floor here as well, especially considering his small frame. If he can prove his throwing ability can match his rushing talent, the sky is truly the limit, though. Daniels could find his way to the top of Superflex rookie drafts and is an easy early second rounder in conventional rookie drafts this off-season as well.
Dynasty | The New England Patriots drafted UNC quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Patriots have hit the reset button with the first pick in the post-Bill Belichick era and took Maye with the third overall selection. He should have a solid chance to take over as the starter immediately and be given every opportunity to succeed. However, there are concerns here as Maye will not exactly be given a roster full of elite talent. Maye is in danger of some really serious adversity early in his career and may need to work through it. Regardless, Maye looks like a solid Superflex pick and a second rounder in conventional formats.
Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Cardinals decided to stand pat in the draft and took Harrison with the fourth overall selection. He should immediately take over as the top option for Kyler Murray in the desert and is in place to immediately become a big factor in dynasty leagues. Simply put, Harrison has the talent, pedigree and skill set to be an immediate WR1 and should be the top overall position player taken in rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | The top Washington pass-catcher gets an upgrade at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels. Dynasty Analysis: Currently ranked as WR35 in DLF's dynasty ranks, McLaurin could get the biggest value bump at the position with the QB change. A precision passer who is also a dangerous runner, Daniels is exactly what the Commanders needed to open up the offense. McLaurin figures to benefit the most as the Heisman-winning rookie's top receiving option, and could jump more than 10 spots into low end WR2 range.
Dynasty | The New York Giants drafted LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Giants reportedly flirted with many options in the draft (including maneuvering for a quarterback) but ended up grabbing Nabers with the sixth overall pick. It's hard to blame them as Nabers could honestly be the best receiver in this class. While Daniel Jones' health and overall play is still in question, Nabers should enter the season as the top pass catcher for the Giants and makes for an easy top-three pick in conventional dynasty rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | Murray gets a new WR1 with the arrival of Marvin Harrison, Jr. Dynasty Analysis: After missing half of the 2023 season rehabbing a torn ACL, and losing DeAndre Hopkins before the season and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown after the season, dynasty owners have been understandably skeptical of Murray. But the addition of Harrison gives Murray arguably the best weapon of his career. Previously ranked as QB10 with mid/late 2nd round ADP, Murray is poised to jump back into the first round for the first time since the ACL injury in 2022.
Dynasty | Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr was drafted 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Dynasty Analysis: Wow. Penix was reportedly rising up draft boards this off-season but few expected him to go in the top ten of the NFL Draft, no less to the Falcons, who had recently signed Kirk Cousins. Penix is now in place to back up Cousins for a year or more before taking over for Atlanta as their long-term answer. Unfortunately, his chance at a starting job is close to zero for this season and his draft stock in dynasty leagues is going to suffer as a result, Patience could be rewarded for dynasty managers but it's going to be tough to use a pick (and a roster spot) long-term for a lottery ticket like Penix. In short, this looks like a pick better in reality and fantasy and Penix is a serious wild card in dynasty rookie drafts as a result.
Dynasty | The fifth overall selection of left tackle Joe Alt gives Justin Herbert some much-needed blindside protection. Dynasty Analysis: Herbert still faces a lack of pass-catching weapons as of the draft's first round. But the concern of a run ultra-heavy approach under new head coach Jim Harbaugh should subside �" if only slightly �" with the arrival of Alt. Herbert has struggled with injuries over the last two seasons, facing constant pressure when he is on the field. The pocket should solidify and Herbert should have significantly more time to throw with the upgrade at left tackle.
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 overall draft. Dynasty Analysis: Many mock drafts had put Odunze at #9 to Chicago and that's exactly where he ended up. His dynasty prospects are going to be a little cloudy early as he attempts to navigate his way to targets with the likes of Keenan Allen and DJ Moore early in his career but he has the chops to be a dominant dynasty performer in time. His career arc should match that of Caleb Williams and while the early returns could be hit and miss he still looks like a top three wide receiver and top five rookie pick this off-season.
Dynasty | The Minnesota Vikings drafted Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy with the tenth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: There was a lot of smoke about McCarthy being taken in the top five but he ended up falling to tenth pick where Minnesota was happy to scoop him up. The Vikings will likely hold an open competition between McCarthy and Sam Darnold but it certainly looks like McCarthy has been pegged as the future for the franchise. His upside is debatable in dynasty leagues as McCarthy may not be the most dynamic player in the draft but he does seem like one of the safer options. He looks like a late second or early third round pick in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Nix ended up being the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft but the 12th overall selection, being taken by the Broncos. Denver is looking to quickly replace Russell Wilson and Head Coach Sean Payton is reportedly enamored with Nix. All of this adds up to him likely being the week one starter for Denver and gives him a decent runway to be successful. The numbers are very impressive here and Nix now has a pretty solid runway to playing time. As such, his rookie ADP is likely going to rise into the second round of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Las Vegas Raiders selected tight end Brock Bowers with the 13th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers slipped a little in the NFL Draft as teams maneuvered around to secure quarterbacks. In the end, he ended up being taken 13th overall to the Raiders. It's an odd fit as Las Vegas invested in Michael Mayer last season but Bowers should still have a solid chance to contribute early and often. Having a clearer path to being a true TE1 on his team would have likely solidified his spot as a top five rookie pick but this could drop him down just a smidge. Still, he has as much talent as anyone we've ever seen at the position and should have a floor that makes him very desirable in round one of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | After getting a big quarterback upgrade with the selection of Caleb Williams, Moore gets some serious competition for targets as the Bears pick Rome Odunze. Dynasty Analysis: The excitement of Williams throwing to Moore and Co. lasted all of eight picks, as the ninth overall selection of Odunze poses a threat to Moore's workload. While Odunze's downfield prowess compliments the short-mid range deployment of Keenan Allen, Odunze will directly compete with Moore for downfield and perimeter targets. Moore will continue to line up as the WR1 in the offense, but his WR16 dynasty ranking at DLF isn't likely to hold up with his diminished target share.
Dynasty | The Raiders select generational talent Brock Bowers, effectively burying Mayer and his dynasty value. Dynasty Analysis: A chalk sleeper at the TE position, Mayer was positioned for a breakout in 2023. That is, until Brock Bowers came along. The 13th overall pick is considered one of the best TE prospects in league history, and he immediately walks into the starting job in Sin City. Mayer went into the draft ranked as the dynasty TE14 on DLF, in the neighborhood of Luke Musgrave and Cole Kmet, ahead of Dalton Schultz. His ranking is likely to plummet now that he is the backup to Bowers.
Dynasty | The Jaguars drafted LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas landed in a great spot, being taken late in round one by the Jacksonville Jaguars. A true playmaker, he should have every opportunity to replace Calvin Ridley quickly in the Jaguars offense and is a candidate to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year based on his talent and opportunity. This was a solid development for his value and Thomas should have his spot as a top-6 player in rookie drafts solidified as a result.
Dynasty | Instead of drafting Jones' replacement, the Giants give him his best weapon yet in Malik Nabers. Dynasty Analysis: Seemingly in danger of losing his starting job, Daniel Jones didn't just avoid being replaced; he also got a massive weapons upgrade when WR Malik Nabers was selected sixth overall. The increase in job security �" when the Giants passed on QBs J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix �" was enough to improve upon Jones' QB26 DLF dynasty ranking. But the team invested in their quarterback even further by giving him an elite receiving weapon in Nabers. The job security and the addition of Nabers likely vaults Jones into mid-high QB2 range.
