Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 26 10:40am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Samuel should get plenty of work
Wow, wow, wow. That is about all you can say about last week’s game. That might have been the greatest playoff weekend ever. Needless to say, this week has a lot to live up to. Hopefully, we can at least near those games. We’ll see. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
Josh Allen is so special. He had a game for the ages last week and lost. He had nine touchdowns without a turnover in the Bills two playoff games, showing he can come up big in the big game. Allen is a special, special player. At this point, I’m raking him first overall in my quarterback rankings for 2022. One thing that gets overlooked with Allen is his ability to make plays with his legs, rushing for 763 yard this season. This guy is as consistent it gets at the quarterback spot and is going to be a superstar for lots of years to come.
One player that is going to be intriguing next year is Gabriel Davis. He had one of the best games ever for a receiver in the playoffs, catching eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns. His stock is rising in a hurry, especially with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley possibly gone next year. Davis should start opposite Stefon Diggs in the Bills explosive passing game. I’m not sure he is going to be a consistent play but expect plenty of big games. Plus, he is a great red-zone target because of his size and strength.
I think Tom Brady returns for one more season. He had a fantastic year once again and showed few signs of slowing down - if any. The Bucs were depleted at receiver by season’s end, so I think they reload there and give Brady one more shot to win it all. A healthy Chris Godwin and a new No. 3 to replace Antonio Brown would give Brady a big-time boost.
How do the Bucs let Cooper Kupp get behind him in the waning seconds of a tie game? I could not believe that one. I know Kupp is one of the best, so you can’t ignore that. But if I’m the Bucs, I do everything in my power to keep him in front of me to prevent a big play. I could not believe the end to that game. As for Kupp, he has 100-yard games six of his last eight games. He had one of the all-time great seasons for a receiver, so it was kind of a fitting end to this game for him.
And speaking of crazy finishes. You could second guess a lot with the end to that Bills/Chiefs, seeing a ton of points scored in a short time to send that game to overtime. The big one for me is seeing the Bills kick the ball into the end zone after they gook the lead with just 13 seconds left. I make the Chiefs run it back to run some time off the clock. I think they did them a favor by kicking it deep, giving Patrick Mahomes more time to do his thing. That was my big beef with how that played out. But even with that said, it was sure exciting to watch. Wow. That was probably the best football game I ever watched.
I had a hard time picking the games last week and am feeling the same way this week. These aren’t easy decisions. I have a hard time picking against the Chiefs right now, though. I never thought they would make three straight Super Bowls, but just can’t see the Bengals going on the road and winning that one. The Chiefs are playing their best football at the right time. And over in the NFC, I am going with the 49ers. They beat the Rams twice during the regular season and think they will make it a third time. San Francisco just seems a team of destiny. Their defense is playing great and I expect the offense, mainly the running game, to play much better this week. The Rams impressed last week, but I still don’t have total faith in Matthew Stafford. Maybe he showed me last week, but I don’t think the Rams run the ball well this week and Stafford will be forced to carry the offense against a very good 49ers defense.
HOT PLAYS
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is red hot right now, having touchdowns five straight games. He also has 100-yard games two of those weeks. Kelce has 23-plus fantasy points two straight and three of five. He is setup to find the end zone again this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends during the regular season.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel just keeps getting it done on a weekly basis. He has touchdowns three of four games. He has 20-plus fantasy points nine times this season. His rushing numbers make him a force at the receiver spot, producing as a dual threat for all his fantasy owners. Samuel had huge success in two games against the Rams this season. Samuel had 300 total yards and three touchdowns, catching nine passes. He should be heavily involved in the 49ers game plan.
COLD PLAYS
Cam Akers, RB, Rams. Akers is back and looks to be the clear lead back for the Rams. He ran the ball 24 times last week and has 41 carries in the Rams two playoff games. Unfortunately, the Rams running game isn’t opening many holes for him right now. Akers has 41 carries for just 103 yards in those two games. And things won’t get much easier for him this week against the 49ers. The 49ers held the Rams to 116-rushing yards in two games this year. Ie might be more of the same for Akers.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell had a breakout season, emerging as the lead back for the 49ers and having much success in that role. His lack of work in the passing game holds him back little, though, especially in games against a team that does well in holding down the run. He faces one of those teams this week, the Rams. Los Angeles held Mitchell to fewer than double-digit fantasy points in each of their games this year. Mitchell got 20-plus carries in each game but couldn’t crack double-digit points despite the work. He might be tough sledding for him again this week.
SLEEPERS
Byron Pringle, WR, Chiefs. Pringle has really emerged as a consistent threat in the Chiefs passing game. He has five receptions three straight games. And he has at least five catches four of five games. He also has three touchdowns in two playoff games this year. Patrick Mahomes has more trust in him and is looking his way a lot more often. He could be a good play again this week in a game that could be very high scoring once again.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals. Boyd can disappear at times in this offense with two top weapons to compete with for targets this year. But he has still produced some big games this year. He is more than capable. He has touchdowns four of five games. He also has three games with 20-plus fantasy points. The Chiefs allowed Cole Beasley to have six receptions for 60 yards last week. Beasley plays a similar position to Boyd, so that bodes well for Boyd to have some success in this matchup.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Bengals/Chiefs, 49ers/Rams.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Seattle Seahawks reportedly visited with unrestricted free-agent running back Rashaad Penny on Wednesday. Seattle is pretty familiar with Penny after taking him with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 draft out of San Diego State. The 28-year-old flashed moments of brilliance in the first five seasons with the Seahawks but just was never able to stay healthy enough to stay on the field for long stretches. Penny averaged 5.7 yards per carry with 1,918 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on 337 carries in Seattle while also catching 27 passes for 222 yards and another score. He had his smallest role yet with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023, carrying the ball 11 times for 33 yards in three regular-season games. A move back to Seattle would have Penny serving as backfield depth behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.
From RotoBaller
The Cleveland Browns reportedly visited with Tennessee Titans undrafted free-agent tight end Trevon Wesco on Wednesday. Wesco was originally drafted by the New York Jets in the fourth round (121st overall) in 2019 out of West Virginia. The 28-year-old spent the first three years of his NFL career in New York before single-year stints with the Chicago Bears and Titans in each of the last two seasons. He has just nine receptions on 17 targets for 134 yards and no touchdowns in 69 games (23 starts) in his five-year NFL career. Wesco has made a career out of being a blocking-first tight, so he won't even be close to the fantasy radar if he lands in Cleveland as depth in the TE room behind David Njoku and alongside names like Jordan Akins, Giovanni Ricci and Zaire Mitchell-Paden.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent running back J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) plans to sign a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Chargers according to his agent. Dobbins appeared in just one game in 2023 before he tore his Achilles and missed the remainder of the campaign. The veteran runner will be reunited with offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who called plays for the Baltimore Ravens during a portion of Dobbins' stint there. Signs indicate that new head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to operate a run-heavy offensive approach with the Chargers, which would be good news for Dobbins, provided he's healthy. Consider this a good landing spot for Dobbins, who will look to prove his health in hopes of landing a long-term deal next offseason.
From RotoBaller
The Philadelphia Eagles concluded pre-draft visits with Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold and Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean this week. Philly is clearly interested in adding defensive back talent to its defense after allowing 252.7 passing yards per game last year (second-worst). The organization holds the No. 22 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is right in the range where Arnold and DeJean could be selected. Arnold, a 2023 first-team All-American, racked up 20 pass deflections and six interceptions over the last two seasons. DeJean totaled 13 pass deflections and seven interceptions in his final two collegiate campaigns, and he averaged 13.1 yards per punt return. Both players are considered top cornerback prospects in this cycle, so Philadelphia would make a great landing spot for either one as James Bradberry (30 years old) and Darius Slay (33 years old) have likely seen their best days in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton has not yet reported to voluntary offseason workouts this week, according to ESPN's Jordan Raanan. The 27-year-old is seeking a contract extension after posting 50 receptions for 770 yards and four touchdowns last season. He led the team in receiving yards last year, and he has done so in four of the last five campaigns. He's due to make $6.2 million in 2024. Although Slayton is far from a fantasy football superstar, he's been productive at times -- making this a situation worth monitoring. He should be a top wideout target in New York's offense once again, though they might take a wideout in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and second-year receiver Jalin Hyatt could take on a larger role.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent linebacker Cam Brown is signing with the Miami Dolphins, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. Brown spent the last four seasons with the New York Giants after being selected by the organization in the sixth round of the 2020 NFL Draft out of Penn State. In his first 60 NFL games, the 26-year-old accumulated 35 tackles (24 solo) and two forced fumbles. He posted seven special teams tackles last season, which is where he will likely contribute for the Fins in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan has a pre-draft visit scheduled with the Cincinnati Bengals on Wednesday. McMillan was a three-year starter in college and is projected to be a Day 2 selection in the upcoming NFL draft next week. The 22-year-old ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis in February and also has good size at 6-foot-1, 203 pounds. In his career with the Huskies, McMillan had 164 receptions for 2,143 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in 38 games played. Even though Cincy still has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins around, they are expected to take a receiver in this year's draft. They have three Day 3 picks, including two third-round picks at Nos. 80 and 97.
From RotoBaller
The Miami Dolphins will exercise the fifth-year option for linebacker Jaelan Phillips (Achilles), according to general manager Chris Grier. The former 18th overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft, Phillips has been an integral piece for the Dolphins defense since he entered the league three years ago. He set a Dolphins rookie record with 8.5 sacks in 2021 and had seven sacks in 2022 before playing in only eight games in 2023 because of an Achilles tear. Before his injury, he was on pace for a career-high 14 sacks. The Dolphins expect Phillips to make a full recovery for the start of the 2024 campaign. Miami can't afford for Phillips to regress after his injury after losing Christian Wilkins this offseason. If healthy in 2024, Phillips should be on the IDP fantasy radar.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has impressed fans after showing up to voluntary offseason workouts this month looking to be in excellent shape physically. Already one of the most impressive offensive rookies in 2023 with the most yards per rush (7.8) with a minimum of 100 attempts, his fantasy stock is soaring heading into his sophomore campaign this fall. Achane stands at only 5-foot-9, 188 pounds, but he packs a punch and is one of the fastest players overall in the NFL already. The only knocks on the 22-year-old are that he missed six games with injury, and that Raheem Mostert, who scored 21 total touchdowns in 2023, is still around. Achane had 103 carries for 800 yards and eight touchdowns in 11 regular-season games (four starts). Even with Mostert around, Achane, when healthy, has some of the most upside of any RB in the league.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants visited with Oregon quarterback Bo Nix and South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler this week, according to sources. The Giants continue to do their due diligence on the QB position ahead of this month's NFL draft at all levels of the draft. Nix is a potential first-round pick, but he's not expected to go as early as New York's sixth overall pick. Rattler is seen as a mid-round selection. The G-Men have six picks in this year's draft with one in every round other than the seventh. They continue to say that Daniel Jones (knee), who is coming off a torn ACL, is their starter when healthy, but they are wisely planning to have better depth behind him in 2024 and beyond if he gets hurt again or disappoints this fall.
From RotoBaller
Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is visiting with the Los Angeles Chargers on Wednesday. Bowers also has visited with the Chicago Bears and New York Jets this week, so he's making the rounds with interested club's with the NFL draft coming late next week. Even after missing his pro-day workout with a minor hamstring injury, the 21-year-old is projected to be a top-15 pick in this first round next week after dominating as a pass-catching tight end in college with the Bulldogs. Bowers had 2,538 receiving yards and 31 total touchdowns in three seasons, even after missing a big chunk of 2023 due to an ankle injury. It's probably unlikely the Bolts would take Bowers fifth overall, but if he did end up in LA, we could easily see him being fantasy relevant in Year 1 after the team lost pass-catchers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Cowboys have signed free agent running back Royce Freeman. Dynasty Analysis: The well-traveled Freeman joins Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis and Snoop Conner in a makeshift backfield for the Cowboys at the moment. While the signing is a little intriguing on paper since Freeman has proven to be capable before, it seems highly likely Dallas takes a running back in the upcoming NFL Draft. At this point, he simply needs to be added to dynasty watch lists in case the Cowboys really do punt on the position and employ some kind of committee with this group,
The Dallas Cowboys signed free-agent running back Royce Freeman to an undisclosed one-year deal on Tuesday, according to a source. The former third-round pick of the Denver Broncos in 2018 out of Oregon spent last year with the Los Angeles Rams and had 77 carries for 319 yards and two rushing touchdowns in 14 regular-season games (zero starts) while adding a 13-yard catch on two targets. Even with Tony Pollard departing via Tennessee in free agency this offseason, it might be tough for Freeman to make a huge impact in Dallas' backfield in 2024 alongside the likes of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Malik Davis. The Cowboys could also add more competition at the position via the upcoming draft. At best, Freeman could be a touchdown-dependent RB3/flex option in fantasy in 2024.
From RotoBaller
While Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (knee) has been working hard in the weight room, there's no timetable yet for his return in 2024. "I don't know that we'll go past today and this week at least that's the way I'm looking at it," head coach Kevin Stefanski said. "I can promise you he's working very hard early in the morning. He's here, he's attacking his rehab. That's the best way I can put it. When he's ready, he'll be ready." The 28-year-old suffered a gruesome season-ending knee injury in Week 2 of last year. While he'll be sticking around with the team in 2024, it's unclear if he'll be ready by training camp this summer or if the Browns will be forced to ease him into the fold in the opening portion of the 2024 campaign. Because of the uncertainty around how Chubb will bounce back, it will make him an extremely risky RB1 in fantasy.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers signed free-agent wide receiver Trent Taylor to an undisclosed one-year deal on Tuesday. It will be a reunion between the two sides after the Niners selected Taylor in the fifth round (177th overall) in 2017 out of Louisiana Tech. The 29-year-old pass-catcher spent the first three years of his NFL career in the Bay Area before two years with the Cincinnati Bengals. He went catchless on two targets in 17 games (zero starts) for the Chicago Bears in 2023. Taylor is most likely to pitch in on special teams for the 49ers after Ray-Ray McCloud left in free agency this offseason. In his six NFL seasons, Taylor has 87 receptions on 137 targets for 834 yards and three touchdowns, with most of the production coming in his first two seasons with the 49ers.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed just one game last season, but he dealt with multiple injuries to his lower and upper body that could have affected his play in 2023. In a media availability on Tuesday, the former No. 1 overall pick said he did not feel 100% healthy until March. "When March hit, I felt really good, like lifting and doing everything like totally normal," Lawrence said. "But until March, I'd say that's when I started to feel like 100%, do stuff that I normally do." The 24-year-old threw for 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, and the Jaguars lost a Week 18 game against the struggling Tennessee Titans that would have sent them to the playoffs. Ultimately, it was a disappointing season for Lawrence and the Jaguars alike, but a healthy Lawrence could yield better results in 2024. The team has uncertainty at the wide receiver position after the departure of Calvin Ridley, but they are likely to add weapons in the upcoming NFL Draft. Lawrence figures to have a low-end QB1 upside, though he's likely to produce mid-range QB2 numbers in fantasy football.
From RotoBaller
Veteran wide receiver Rashard Higgins and linebacker Christian Kirksey are signing one-day contracts with the Cleveland Browns to retire with the organization, the team announced on Tuesday. Higgins was selected by Cleveland in the fifth round of the 2016 NFL Draft and racked up 137 receptions for 1,890 yards and 12 touchdowns in 82 games from 2016 to 2021. He spent the 2022 season with the Carolina Panthers but did not log a snap. Kirkey was a 2014 third-round pick by the Browns and played for the team until 2019 before brief stints with the Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills. Overall, he secured 779 tackles, 16.5 sacks, seven interceptions, and 34 passes defended in 114 career games.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said he is "not sure" when running back Nyheim Hines (knee) will practice with the team for the first time. The 27-year-old is rehabbing from a torn ACL that he suffered off the field last offseason as a member of the Buffalo Bills. Despite that, the Browns signed him to a one-year, $1.15 million deal after free agency began. Since being traded to the Bills in the middle of the 2022 campaign, Hines has rushed for negative three yards and caught five passes for 53 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Cleveland has Nick Chubb (knee), D'Onta Foreman, and Jerome Ford on the roster. That said, it'd be surprising if Hines has a role in the offense this season, but he could be a factor in the kick return game if he can work his way back from the unfortunate injury.
From RotoBaller
The Atlanta Falcons secured quarterback Kirk Cousins this offseason on a four-year, $180 million deal, setting them up to have above-average quarterback play for the first time since Matt Ryan parted ways with the organization. However, the team is not done adding to the quarterback room. "We're definitely gonna add a quarterback," Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said. "We're not going to into the season with two arms." The team has Cousins and Taylor Heinicke on the roster, but most teams carry between three and five quarterbacks in the offseason. It's unlikely that Atlanta will consider a first-round quarterback in this year's class, but they could begin to take fliers on signal-callers as soon as Round 2 begins. Cousins will turn 36 years old before the start of the 2024 season, so throwing a dart on players like Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix would make sense if they fall to the second round. On Day 3 of the draft, Spencer Rattler, Michael Pratt, and Joe Milton III are potential project options to consider. Although any quarterback Atlanta adds can be safely ignored in single-quarterback formats, they might be worth rostering in deep superflex and two-QB setups considering Cousins' age and the major Achilles injury he is coming off of.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle is having his fifth-year option exercised. Dynasty Analysis: Waddle has strung together three straight 1,000-yard seasons to start his career, so this is hardly a surprise. While his 72/1,014/4 year was a bit of a disappointment in 2023, Waddle has still shown a lot of ability and could be a player who excels later in his career when Tyreek Hill moves on. While not in the elite level of receivers, Waddle still makes for a solid WR2 target in dynasty leagues and this move ensures we'll have at least two more seasons of him in Miami.
