Studs and Duds: Wild Card Weekend
Tue Jan 17 8:39am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Prescott comes up big in playoffs
Most of the games were actually pretty competitive this weekend. All but two were one-score games in the end. This made for some good viewing for football fans. It also made for some big fantasy games. Several marquee players posted some really good fantasy numbers. Hopefully, these guys were on your fantasy playoff rosters.
49ers 41, Seahawks 23
Fantasy Stud: DK Metcalf. His team lost, but Metcalf was huge in the game. He put all the fantasy owners that rostered him in a great spot to open the playoffs. Metcalf had 10 receptions for 136 yards and two touchdowns. He scored a season high in fantasy points, finishing with 35.6 points. It was a great showing, especially after doing next to nothing his previous two games.
Fantasy Dud: Tyler Lockett. Lockett was held in check after posting good numbers his first two games against the 49ers. Lockett had six receptions for 39 yards. Lockett failed to reach double-digit fantasy points for just the fourth time all season. He still had a great overall season, posting much more consistent numbers for his standards.
Game Notes: The big stage of the playoffs was not too big for rookie Brock Purdy. He was 18-of-30 for 332 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. He also ran in a score, giving him four total scores in the game.
Deebo Samuel had a great showing, catching six passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. He also had three rushes for 32 yards, giving him 165 total yards.
Jaguars 31, Chargers 30
Fantasy Stud: Evan Engram. Engram remains red hot in the Jaguars passing game. He had seven receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown. He continues to play a huge role in the passing game. Engram topped 20 fantasy points in the game for the second time this season. Engram has seven or more receptions four of six games.
Fantasy Dud: Josh Palmer. You would have thought Palmer would play a big role in the passing game with Mike Williams out. Well, that didn’t happen. It was tight end Gerald Everett that got more chances. Palmer had just two receptions for 31 yards. Palmer had a pretty good season overall, but fantasy owners will look for more consistency in 2023.
Game Notes: Trevor Lawrence had a first half to forget, but somehow put that behind him and led his team to victory. He was 28-of-47 for 288 yards and four touchdowns with four interceptions.
Touchdowns saved Austin Ekeler’s fantasy performance in this one. He ran 13 times for just 35 yards but found the end zone two times. He also caught just two passes for eight yards.
Bills 34, Dolphins 31
Fantasy Stud: Gabe Davis. Davis continued his flare for the dramatic in the playoffs, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. He made some big plays and helped his team to victory. Davis was not as consistent as fantasy owners hoped during the regular season, but he might be a little more consistent this postseason if history repeats itself.
Fantasy Dud: Jaylen Waddle. Waddle had a pretty quiet game, finishing with just three receptions for 44 yards. Waddle scored just 8.2 fantasy points, giving him that total two of his last three games. Waddle had a big season overall, though, and should be a top pick for fantasy teams once again in 2023.
Game Notes: Josh Allen had a couple bad interceptions, but did finish with 352 yards and three touchdowns. He will need to clean up his play if the Bills hope to make a long playoff run.
James Cook had more carries than Devin Singletary. Cook ran 12 times for 39 yards and a touchdown. Singletary ran 10 times for 48 yards.
Giants 31, Vikings 24
Fantasy Stud: Saquon Barkley. Barkley had a big game in his first playoff appearance. He ran nine times for 53 yards and two touchdowns. He also had five receptions for 56 yards. So he had 109 total yards and two scores, finishing with 27.9 fantasy points. Barkley continued his big season right into the playoffs.
Fantasy Dud: Justin Jefferson. Jefferson did have seven receptions but didn’t top 50 yards. He had just 47 yards. Jefferson had a monster season but didn’t finish his season very well. Heh ad fewer than 50 yards three straight games to end the year. Even with that said, Jefferson should be in consideration for top overall fantasy pick next season. He had one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memories this year.
Game Notes: Daniel Jones showed little nerves in his first playoff game, going 24-of-35 for 301 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. He also led the team in rushing, running 17 times for 78 yards.
T.J. Hockenson got a huge workload for the Vikings, catching 10 passes for 129 yards. It was his second game with double-digit receptions and third hitting the 100-yard mark.
Bengals 24, Ravens 17
Fantasy Stud: Ja’Marr Chase. Chase had nine receptions for 84 yards and a touchdowns. He scored 23.4 fantasy points, giving him 22-plus points two straight games. Chase also has touchdowns four of five games. If not for injuries, Chase would have posted monster numbers this year. He could make a run at first overall in fantasy receiver scoring if he keeps trending this way.
Fantasy Dud: Joe Mixon. Mixon was really held in check, rushing 11 times for 39 yards. He also had three catches for 17 yards, giving him just 8.6 fantasy points. Mixon has been a little quiet lately, having fewer than 40-rushing yards three of four games.
Game Notes: Tyler Huntley had a very costly fumble, which led to the game-winning score for the Bengals, but played a good game besides that. He was 17-of-29 for 226 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. He also ran nine times for 54 yards.
J.K. Dobbins topped 100 total yards in the game. He ran 13 times for 62 yards and caught four passes for 43 yards and a touchdown. He had 105 total yards and a score.
Cowboys 31, Bucs 14
Fantasy Stud: Dak Prescott. Prescott sure put his last game behind him, playing a near perfect game in this playoff opener. He was 25-of-33 for 305 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover. Prescott had a season high in fantasy points, scoring 39.7 points. It was just the second time all year he had more than 30 fantasy points in a game.
Fantasy Dud: Leonard Fournette. Fournette had a really disappointing finish to his season, rushing five times for just 11 yards. But most disappointing was his one reception for six yards. Fournette was not utilized in the passing game often despite the Bucs playing from behind. Fournette had fewer than double-digit fantasy points three straight games to end his season.
Game Notes: Tony Pollard had a much better showing than Ezekiel Elliott despite getting a similar workload. Pollard had 15 carries for 77 yards while Elliott ran 13 times for just 27 yards.
Dalton Schultz had his third multiple touchdown game of the season. He had seven receptions for 95 yards and two scores. Schultz has 20-plus fantasy points two of three games.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Ex-NFL lineman Korey Cunningham found dead
- Eagles' inside intel aided selection of Toledo CB in first round
- 2024 NFL Draft: Best available entering second round
- Winners, losers in first round of 2024 NFL Draft
- Falcons pick QB Michael Penix Jr. despite Kirk Cousins signing
- Vikings make first trade of draft to take QB J.J. McCarthy
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown lands 3-year, $96M extension
- Caleb Williams joins Bears as QBs go 1-2-3 at NFL draft
- Bears take QB Caleb Williams No. 1 in NFL draft
- Man who killed ex-Saints DE Will Smith gets 25 years
- Caleb Williams already favored to win Offensive ROY
- Commanders to retire Darrell Green's No. 28
- Bears lay out controversial $5B stadium proposal
- Giants GM open to all 'possible scenarios' at No. 6
- Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson requests trade
- Cowboys exercise fifth-year option on DE Micah Parsons
- Saints OL James Hurst retires after 10 years in NFL
- LSU QB Jayden Daniels ready for anything on draft night
- Ravens WR Rashod Bateman agrees to 3-year extension
- Steelers rework LB Alex Highsmith's deal, clear $7M
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Draft Updates – Live Chat
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Mock Draft – Post-Free Agency Edition
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Draft Big Board
- Fantasy Six Pack: Dynasty Football Rookie WR Tiered Rankings
The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers selected wide receiver Xavier Legette with the final pick of round one in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Carolina Panthers moved up and secured the final pick of round one to draft Legette 32nd overall. It's a tricky landing spot for his value as he'll have an immediate chance for playing time but also a project being paired with a quarterback who has a whole lot of question marks moving forward. Legette looks like a boom or bust rookie draft pick who will likely go in round two of most rookie drafts moving forward.
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson requested a trade on Wednesday, according to his agent, Harold Lewis, as he seeks more long-term security after the two sides settled on a one-year extension last year worth $21 million. However, a source said that the Bengals are not interested in trading Hendrickson. It's not surprise that Hendrickson is looking for a new deal after posting a career-high 17.5 sacks, which was second in the NFL behind Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt. It was the highest total for a Bengals player since sacks became a statistic in 1982. He also finished 11th in pass-rush win rate as an edge rusher and created the second-most sacks (18) in the league. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson is going to be a very coveted defensive lineman in IDP fantasy formats this fall after his big 2023 campaign.
From RotoBaller
The San Francisco 49ers are "more likely" to trade wide receiver Deebo Samuel than Brandon Aiyuk during this year's 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. Aiyuk's name has been mentioned in trade rumors all offseason, but now Samuel is the more likely pass-catcher to be dealt. Samuel, 28, is two years older than Aiyuk but has more versatility in the offense. However, Samuel also has a salary cap hit north of $20 million in 2025. Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal as he heads into the fifth and final contract of his rookie deal, but the Niners have been hesitant to give him a market deal given their other financial commitments. San Francisco took rookie pass-catcher Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall pick in the first round on Thursday night, potentially foreshadowing a trade of either Samuel or Aiyuk in the coming days.
From RotoBaller
In recent weeks, both the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings reached out to the Los Angeles Chargers to see if they had any interest in trading quarterback Justin Herbert, according to league sources. The answer they got very quickly was "a flat no." Not only do the Chargers love Herbert, but they also would have had to take on a $63.5 million salary cap charge in 2024 at a time they have $32.3 million of cap space. Meanwhile, the Patriots took QB Drake Maye third overall and the Vikings took QB J.J. McCarthy 11th overall in the first round of this year's NFL draft. There's still a lot to like about the 26-year-old Herbert, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he lost Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason and is now in a run-first offense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Bears made this all but a certainty when they traded Justin Fields to the Steelers earlier this off-season. Williams will immediately take over the franchise and will be in a unique situation as a rookie starter with an offense that isn't exactly lacking talent. The likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and D'Andre Swift should be enough to keep his dynasty value high even as he learns the position. Williams should be immediately installed as a low-end QB1 and an easy pick at the top of a Superflex league rookie draft.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders decided to make Daniels the face of the franchise and took him with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's hard to blame him as he put up video game numbers last season at LSU. It's difficult to see any other quarterback with a higher ceiling than Daniels has, though it's also evident there's a low floor here as well, especially considering his small frame. If he can prove his throwing ability can match his rushing talent, the sky is truly the limit, though. Daniels could find his way to the top of Superflex rookie drafts and is an easy early second rounder in conventional rookie drafts this off-season as well.
Dynasty | The New England Patriots drafted UNC quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Patriots have hit the reset button with the first pick in the post-Bill Belichick era and took Maye with the third overall selection. He should have a solid chance to take over as the starter immediately and be given every opportunity to succeed. However, there are concerns here as Maye will not exactly be given a roster full of elite talent. Maye is in danger of some really serious adversity early in his career and may need to work through it. Regardless, Maye looks like a solid Superflex pick and a second rounder in conventional formats.
Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Cardinals decided to stand pat in the draft and took Harrison with the fourth overall selection. He should immediately take over as the top option for Kyler Murray in the desert and is in place to immediately become a big factor in dynasty leagues. Simply put, Harrison has the talent, pedigree and skill set to be an immediate WR1 and should be the top overall position player taken in rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | The top Washington pass-catcher gets an upgrade at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels. Dynasty Analysis: Currently ranked as WR35 in DLF's dynasty ranks, McLaurin could get the biggest value bump at the position with the QB change. A precision passer who is also a dangerous runner, Daniels is exactly what the Commanders needed to open up the offense. McLaurin figures to benefit the most as the Heisman-winning rookie's top receiving option, and could jump more than 10 spots into low end WR2 range.
Dynasty | The New York Giants drafted LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Giants reportedly flirted with many options in the draft (including maneuvering for a quarterback) but ended up grabbing Nabers with the sixth overall pick. It's hard to blame them as Nabers could honestly be the best receiver in this class. While Daniel Jones' health and overall play is still in question, Nabers should enter the season as the top pass catcher for the Giants and makes for an easy top-three pick in conventional dynasty rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | Murray gets a new WR1 with the arrival of Marvin Harrison, Jr. Dynasty Analysis: After missing half of the 2023 season rehabbing a torn ACL, and losing DeAndre Hopkins before the season and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown after the season, dynasty owners have been understandably skeptical of Murray. But the addition of Harrison gives Murray arguably the best weapon of his career. Previously ranked as QB10 with mid/late 2nd round ADP, Murray is poised to jump back into the first round for the first time since the ACL injury in 2022.
Dynasty | Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr was drafted 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Dynasty Analysis: Wow. Penix was reportedly rising up draft boards this off-season but few expected him to go in the top ten of the NFL Draft, no less to the Falcons, who had recently signed Kirk Cousins. Penix is now in place to back up Cousins for a year or more before taking over for Atlanta as their long-term answer. Unfortunately, his chance at a starting job is close to zero for this season and his draft stock in dynasty leagues is going to suffer as a result, Patience could be rewarded for dynasty managers but it's going to be tough to use a pick (and a roster spot) long-term for a lottery ticket like Penix. In short, this looks like a pick better in reality and fantasy and Penix is a serious wild card in dynasty rookie drafts as a result.
Dynasty | The fifth overall selection of left tackle Joe Alt gives Justin Herbert some much-needed blindside protection. Dynasty Analysis: Herbert still faces a lack of pass-catching weapons as of the draft's first round. But the concern of a run ultra-heavy approach under new head coach Jim Harbaugh should subside �" if only slightly �" with the arrival of Alt. Herbert has struggled with injuries over the last two seasons, facing constant pressure when he is on the field. The pocket should solidify and Herbert should have significantly more time to throw with the upgrade at left tackle.
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 overall draft. Dynasty Analysis: Many mock drafts had put Odunze at #9 to Chicago and that's exactly where he ended up. His dynasty prospects are going to be a little cloudy early as he attempts to navigate his way to targets with the likes of Keenan Allen and DJ Moore early in his career but he has the chops to be a dominant dynasty performer in time. His career arc should match that of Caleb Williams and while the early returns could be hit and miss he still looks like a top three wide receiver and top five rookie pick this off-season.
Dynasty | The Minnesota Vikings drafted Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy with the tenth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: There was a lot of smoke about McCarthy being taken in the top five but he ended up falling to tenth pick where Minnesota was happy to scoop him up. The Vikings will likely hold an open competition between McCarthy and Sam Darnold but it certainly looks like McCarthy has been pegged as the future for the franchise. His upside is debatable in dynasty leagues as McCarthy may not be the most dynamic player in the draft but he does seem like one of the safer options. He looks like a late second or early third round pick in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Nix ended up being the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft but the 12th overall selection, being taken by the Broncos. Denver is looking to quickly replace Russell Wilson and Head Coach Sean Payton is reportedly enamored with Nix. All of this adds up to him likely being the week one starter for Denver and gives him a decent runway to be successful. The numbers are very impressive here and Nix now has a pretty solid runway to playing time. As such, his rookie ADP is likely going to rise into the second round of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Las Vegas Raiders selected tight end Brock Bowers with the 13th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers slipped a little in the NFL Draft as teams maneuvered around to secure quarterbacks. In the end, he ended up being taken 13th overall to the Raiders. It's an odd fit as Las Vegas invested in Michael Mayer last season but Bowers should still have a solid chance to contribute early and often. Having a clearer path to being a true TE1 on his team would have likely solidified his spot as a top five rookie pick but this could drop him down just a smidge. Still, he has as much talent as anyone we've ever seen at the position and should have a floor that makes him very desirable in round one of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | After getting a big quarterback upgrade with the selection of Caleb Williams, Moore gets some serious competition for targets as the Bears pick Rome Odunze. Dynasty Analysis: The excitement of Williams throwing to Moore and Co. lasted all of eight picks, as the ninth overall selection of Odunze poses a threat to Moore's workload. While Odunze's downfield prowess compliments the short-mid range deployment of Keenan Allen, Odunze will directly compete with Moore for downfield and perimeter targets. Moore will continue to line up as the WR1 in the offense, but his WR16 dynasty ranking at DLF isn't likely to hold up with his diminished target share.
Dynasty | The Raiders select generational talent Brock Bowers, effectively burying Mayer and his dynasty value. Dynasty Analysis: A chalk sleeper at the TE position, Mayer was positioned for a breakout in 2023. That is, until Brock Bowers came along. The 13th overall pick is considered one of the best TE prospects in league history, and he immediately walks into the starting job in Sin City. Mayer went into the draft ranked as the dynasty TE14 on DLF, in the neighborhood of Luke Musgrave and Cole Kmet, ahead of Dalton Schultz. His ranking is likely to plummet now that he is the backup to Bowers.
Dynasty | The Jaguars drafted LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas landed in a great spot, being taken late in round one by the Jacksonville Jaguars. A true playmaker, he should have every opportunity to replace Calvin Ridley quickly in the Jaguars offense and is a candidate to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year based on his talent and opportunity. This was a solid development for his value and Thomas should have his spot as a top-6 player in rookie drafts solidified as a result.
