Postseason Shootout | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 13

Wed Dec 1 9:47am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Mitchell can continue great play

We are in crunch time in fantasy land. It is do or die for a lot of teams. Just remember, go with the guys that got you to this point. Don’t get too cute with those lineup decisions. This can burn you in the end. Just keep this in mind when making your lineups this week and going forward.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I don’t know who will be the starting quarterback for the Steelers next season, but I’m sure looking forward to it because the Steelers have so many top weapons offensively. You would have to think anyone will be an upgrade over Ben Roethlisberger at this points. And that upgrade will be a positive for all those players offensively, improving their fantasy values. I think guys like Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool can be big-time fantasy stars. They just need a better guy throwing them passes. Hopefully, that comes next year. This Steelers offense could be really scary.

Saquon Barkley still doesn’t look quite like himself. He has struggled since his return from an ankle injury, rushing 19 times for 65 yards in two games. Barkley is a huge talent capable of great things, but don’t get enamored with that talent right now. He isn’t that player. Plus, the Giants are a mess offensively, which doesn’t help matters for Barkley. I know it is hard to bench him, but I would consider it if you have some decent options on your bench.

It took a little time but Antonio Gibson is finally living up to his preseason hype. He has been off the charts in recent weeks, getting a huge workload. Washington is almost making Gibson the focal point of the offense. He has a chance for a huge finish to his season. And remember, this guy played mostly receiver in college, so he is still learning the position. Gibson can get better.

Jaylen Waddle is going to be a huge star in the NFL. He is having a big rookie season and just scratching the surface. He is making most of his plays on shorter routes. He is going to start getting more chances down the field, an area he can excel. I love his ceiling going forward. He is currently ranked 15th overall in fantasy receiver scoring and is going to get better.

Mike Williams has to be one of the most frustrating fantasy players this season. He is 14th overall in fantasy receiver scoring despite having six games with fewer than eight fantasy points. He has been the ultimate boom or bust player. You can’t bench him because of his huge weekly ceiling, so you are going to have to live with the stinker games along the way. Not fun.

So Kyle Pitts is not having the season most expected, but even with that said, he is still sixth overall in fantasy tight end scoring. He is on the field every week and gets his targets. The big games just haven’t been there as frequently. I still have high hopes for Pitts. He will be better once his team gets better around him. Things could be worse for Pitts.

Well, I guess the Cam Newton story was good for a week. He sure came back down to earth last week, crashing on the way down. He was a mess, having issues with accuracy and decision making. I know his fantasy floor is usually pretty high because of his rushing ability, but he is going to be a tough player to use going forward. This probably was his last chance to be a starter in the NFL. I would steer clear of him on my fantasy team.

Adam Thielen deserves a lot more fantasy love. This guy is seventh overall in fantasy receiver scoring. He has touchdowns all but three games. But he just isn’t a touchdown dependent player. He has at least five receptions eight of 11 games. His yards might not be off the charts, but he gets his catches and touchdowns. The numbers don’t lie. This guy is a top-10 fantasy receiver.

News and Notes: Washington signed kicker Brian Johnson on Tuesday. He is expected to take over the kicking duties for Washington with Joey Slye injured. . . . .The Saints still haven't officially named a starter at quarterback for this week, but expectations are Taysom Hill will be the starter. Hill has taken the first-team reps at practice most of the week and Trevor Siemian has struggled in recent weeks.

HOT PLAYS

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Raiders. Renfrow is 14th overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He had his first 100-yard game of the season last week ands touchdowns two of four games. Renfrow also has at least seven receptions four of five games. He has been very consistent and the top target in this offense on a weekly basis. Expect him to get plenty of chances once again this week against Washington, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers.

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. Prescott got back to his big ways last week, throwing for 375 yards and two touchdowns. He has 28-plus fantasy points five games this season, posting some big numbers throughout the year. Prescott is capable of posting some big numbers down the stretch, especially considering his favorable schedule. And it starts this week against the Saints, a team showing struggles against the pass this year. New Orleans allows the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 23rd overall against the pass.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington. Gibson is getting quite the workout in recent weeks for Washington as the team makes it a point to get him touches. He has at least 19 carries three straight and 26-plus touches two of three games. He had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week. If Gibson gets that much work again this week, he can have another huge game. He gets a Raiders team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and are 25th overall against the run.

Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. It is clear that Mitchell is the go-to back for the 49ers. He has 27 carries each of his last two games. He has 100-yard games three of five games. And what is very encouraging for fantasy owners is an increase in work in the passing game, having five receptions two of three games. Mitchell has become a must-start for fantasy teams, especially this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the second most fantasy points to running backs.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is sixth overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He has become a force for fantasy teams, having two straight 100-yard games and scores two of three. Mooney gets consistent work on a weekly basis and his ceiling is very high. He really is a must start right now no matter the matchup. He gets a tough Cardinals defense but his team could be playing from behind, so expect him to get plenty of volume. Keep him in your lineup and expect good things once again.

COLD PLAYS

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. Harris found the end zone once against last week, but his rushing totals were pretty ho hum once again. He has fewer than 60-rushing yards three straight games. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson has emerged and is taking carries from Harris. He is no longer a surefire start for fantasy teams, especially in tough matchups. And a game this week against the Bills is not a good one for Harris. Buffalo is great against the run, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs while ranking sixth overall against the run.

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals. Burrow played a good game last week, helping blow out the Steelers. But he threw for just 190 yards on 24 pass attempts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three straight games. The Bengals might be playing well and Burrow is helping the offense, but he is not helping fantasy teams. You can’t ignore the production on the field. Things won’t get any easier for him this week against the Chargers, a team with one of the best secondaries in football. Los Angeles allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank fifth overall against the pass

Elijah Moore, WR, Jets. The return of Zach Wilson to the starting lineup was not a good thing for Moore. He did have eight targets in the game, but caught just four passes for 46 yards. HIs production was down from the last few weeks when Wilson was on the sideline. Moore is going to be a hard player to trust as long as the erratic Wilson is starting for the Jets. Plus, Moore gets the Eagles this week, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. We aren’t sure if it is the finger or something else, but Wilson clearly doesn’t look right at the moment. He has really struggled in recent weeks, having two touchdowns his last three games. His overall numbers for the year are down, too, though. He has multiple touchdowns just four games. He is a hard fantasy player to trust at this crucial point of the season. He plays the 49ers team this week, a team that has been playing some great football the last few weeks. San Francisco has allowed fewer than 19 fantasy points four straight games.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. You can’t bench Harris. He has too much potential on a weekly basis but his recent play is a little concerning. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards two straight and less than 65-rush yards three of four games. He is might be tiring a bit after getting so much work early in the year. Plus, opposing defenses are looking to shutdown Harris, making Ben Roethlisberger the player to beat them. Harris could have more trouble this week against the Ravens, a team that has allowed fewer than 10 fantasy points to running backs each of their last three games.

SLEEPERS

Russell Gage, WR, Falcons. Gage scored his second touchdown of the season last week. He has at least five receptions three of four games. He is a pretty dependable receiver in the Falcons offense, serving as their top target. Gage is a good streaming play, especially in a favorable matchup. And a game this week against the Bucs might be a good time to use him. The Falcons defense is not going to be able to stop the Bucs, so the offense is going to have to play catch up. Expect plenty of targets for Gage, giving him the potential for maybe his best game of the year.

Mac Jones, QB, Patriots. Jones is 11th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games and had his second 300-yard game of the season last week. Jones is playing great football as a rookie and seems to make strides every week. Jones hasn’t been asked to carry the offense many weeks, but might get that chance this week in a game against the Bills. This game could be one that Jones is asked to do more, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts. We would not bet against him based on his play this year. With some top quarterbacks on a bye, Jones could be worth a streaming play for fantasy teams.

Ronald Jones, RB, Bucs. Jones is finally showing a few signs of life. He has touchdowns two straight and 15 carries those last two games. He isn’t getting a ton of work with Leonard Fournette playing so well, but he is nearly double-digit touches per week. The Bucs play the Falcons this week and could get up big, leading to a little more work for Jones. With some top running backs on a bye, Jones might be worth a look for those teams. Plus, Atlanta allows the fifth most fantasy points to running backs on the season.

Tre’Quan Smith, WR, Saints. Smith is not flashy but consistent. He has at least four receptions three straight and double-digit fantasy points three of five games. He is another good streaming play for fantasy teams. The Saints get an explosive Cowboys offense this week, so New Orleans might need to throw more to keep up. This is good news for Smith, playing a Cowboys defense that has allowed the ninth most fantasy points to receivers.

Boston Scott, RB, Eagles. Scott led the backfield in playing time last week, playing 51 percent of the snaps. He got more work with Miles Sanders dinged up in the game and Jordan Howard injured. It could be more of the same for Scott this week, leading the way in the backfield. Scott has double-digit carries four of five games and double-digit fantasy points three of those games, so he is more than capable of helping fantasy teams. He plays the Jets in Week 13, a team that allows the most fantasy points to running backs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cowboys/Saints, Bucs/Falcons, Chargers/Bengals.

Low Scoring Games: Giants/Dolphins, Ravens/Steelers.

Bye Weeks: Panthers, Browns, Packers, Titans.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 13

The Paur Report