Lineup Prep: Week 13
Wed Nov 30 10:13am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Lawrence is playing at high level
It is crunch time for a lot of fantasy owners. We are nearing the end of the regular season in many formats, so all these upcoming games are so crucial to a lot of fantasy owners. Hopefully, your roster is in good shape and ready to make a run in the playoffs. It should be a fun finish to the season.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
To me, it really looks like the light has come on for Trevor Lawrence. He had maybe his best game as a pro last week, leading his team to an exciting victory with time running out. Confidence goes a long way and it sure seems Lawrence is brimming with that right now. And if you look at this schedule, Lawrence fantasy owners should be brimming with confidence as well. He has games against the Lions, Titans the next two and championship week has him against the Texans. Lawrence could be a difference maker in this year’s fantasy playoffs.
It is never too early to start planning ahead. So if you stream defenses or kickers, start looking at the teams with the best playoff schedules and plan accordingly. You might have extra room on your roster to start stashing players/teams with good schedules for the playoffs. A proactive owners is a winning owner.
The tight end position seems like a dart throw every week outside of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. This position has been a tough one this year. Some guys have played well at times, but the consistency has not been there. I’m going to be anxious to see the numbers after the season of championship teams that owned Kelce. I have a feeling it is going to be pretty high with the season he is having and the huge disparity between him and the rest of the tight ends.
Austin Ekeler is first overall in fantasy running back scoring and has run for just 554 yards. He has fewer than seven carries two of his last three games. That doesn’t mean a whole lot when you are posting reception numbers better than nearly every player in the league, including receivers. Ekeler has 80 catches on the year, including three games with double-digit receptions. He is so consistent because of his reception totals. Plus, he finds the end zone often on a team that puts up a lot of points. Ekeler might be the perfect fantasy back because of the way he accumulates his points. He is so safe for fantasy teams.
I know I have spoken about him before, but I can’t get over the season Geno Smith is having. This really came out of nowhere. It is crazy to think how good he has been this year. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has multiple touchdowns five straight games and all but two this year. He had his third 300-yard game last week. And he has 20-plus fantasy points four straight. Smit has been so consistent all season, which is all you can ask for as a fantasy owner. I didn’t know if he could sustain his play all year, but I’m a believer. He is a legit QB1 and top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Smith has been a huge surprise in a good way at the quarterback spot, but Matt Ryan is the exact opposite. I had high hopes for him this year in Indy, but he looks awful right now. Ryan seems to be bracing for a hit every time he drops back to pass. And he rarely attempts a pass more than 10 yards. I didn’t think he would fall this far so quickly. I expected him to be a good stopgap for the Colts and play near the Philip Rivers level for the team. Well, that hasn’t been the case at all. Ryan has been a huge disappointment for me.
News and Notes: The Chiefs signed running back Melvin Gordon to their practice squad. Gordon has the potential to eventually earn some playing time with his new team. . . . .The Bears signed safety Adrian Colbert on Tuesday. The veteran gives the team some much needed depth at the position after the injury to starter Eddie Jackson.
HOT PLAY
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. Lawrence is playing the best football of his career right now. He is fifth in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three and ninth overall. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight and five of six games. He scored a season-high 29.2 fantasy points last week, throwing for 321 yards and three scores. He can keep his hot ways this week against the Lions. Detroit allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 29th overall against the pass.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. Jacobs is now second overall in fantasy running back scoring after his huge game last week. He topped 300 total yards and had maybe the best game of the entire season for any running back. Jacobs is a set it and forget it fantasy play. He has four games with 30-plus fantasy points. Jacobs could have another one of his huge games this week against a bad Chargers run defense. Los Angeles aloes the fifth most fantasy points to running backs and 28th overall against the run.
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans. Burks is quickly emerging as an elite receiver. He is growing on a weekly basis and has 70-plus yards each of his last two games. He has 17-plus fantasy points each of those games. Burks is almost a low-end WR1 with Ryan Tannehill back in the lineup and throwing him passes. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, but remains a good play for fantasy teams. The Titans are going to need to score some points and could be playing from behind, so look for Burks to get plenty of work in this one. Don’t be scared to use him because of the tough matchup.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears. Montgomery has played well since getting the bulk of the carries with Khalil Herbert out of the lineup. He has 100-plus total yards each of his last two games. And he has topped 14 fantasy points each of those games. He is a low-end No. 1 fantasy back in his current role. Montgomery plays the Packers, a team he had his only 100-yard rushing performance against this year in Week 2. The Packers are just 31st against the run, allowing 154.8-rushing yards per game.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers. Pickens is another young receiver coming into his own. He has been rock solid with Kenny Pickett as his starting quarterback. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight and four of five games. He has a knack for the acrobatic catch every week, showing his big-tie ability. He can hit double-digit fantasy points once again this week against the Falcons, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and are 28th overall against the pass.
COLD PLAYS
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Ravens. Robinson has showing flashes of big things lately, having 12-plus fantasy points two of four games. He also has disappeared at times, catching just a pass for 17 yards last week. He is a hit or miss fantasy play. Look for a miss this week. Robinson has a really tough matchup against a very good Broncos defense. Denver allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers and are third overall against the pass.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman has produced despite getting poor quarterback play. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games. He was targeted 11 times last week, giving him double-digit targets three games. He has put up a few stinkers, though, having fewer than 6.5 fantasy points two games. He is a tough player to bench but this might be a week to consider it. Pittman plays the Cowboys, a team that is first overall against the pass. Dallas allows just 177.7-passing yards per game.
Mac Jones, QB, Patriots. Jones played his best game of the season last week, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a really bad Vikings secondary, though. Remember, Jones had fewer than 15 fantasy points three straight games before last week. He has some potential going forward, but is likely a matchup play. Jones gets the Bills in Week 13, a team that allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bills have allowed just 14-passing touchdowns and have 13 interceptions, which leads the league. This is not a week to use Jones.
Jeff Wilson, RB, Dolphins. Wilson had his worst game as a Dolphin last week, rushing 13 times for just 39 yards. He did find the end zone, which saved his fantasy day. It would not surprise to see him struggle this week, though. Wilson gets his old team, the 49ers. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and the fewest rushing yards in football. Wilson might be a player to consider benching despite his strong play since joining the Dolphins.
Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. Singletary played well last week but didn’t hit double-digit fantasy points despite rushing 14 times for 72 yards. He continues to get little work in the passing game, having just four catches his last three games. His lack of work in the passing game really hurts his fantasy ceiling. He might not find much room to run this week, which is a concern for his fantasy value. He has a tough matchup, playing the Patriots. New England allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs.
SLEEPERS
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams is emerging in the Rams backfield and could be the starter the rest of the way. He played a season high 70 percent of the snaps last week. He had 14 touches for 60 yards. The Rams are a mess right now, but Williams still has fantasy value. He can help fantasy teams as a flex play, especially this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and are 29th overall against the run.
Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Falcons. Zaccheaus had his best game of the season last week, catching five passes for 91 yards on eight targets. This wasn’t his first good fantasy game, though, having three games with double-digit fantasy points. He has produced at times. And his chances could be rising now with Kyle Pitts out of the lineup. Zaccheaus could be worth a flier this week against the Steelers, a team that allows the most fantasy points to receivers on the season.
Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson was a bust last week, failing to catch a pass on just two targets. He was playing great before that, though, having at least 12 fantasy points three straight games. He has become a big part of the passing game despite last week. Look for a rebound game this week against the Bucs. Tampa allows the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. And earlier this year, Johnson tied a season high with seven targets against the Bucs in Week 2.
Mike White, QB, Jets. White was tremendous in his first start of the year, going 22-of-28 for 315 yards and three touchdowns against a pretty good Bears pass defense. He made good decisions and was decisive with the football. He has shown a knack for the big game throughout his career when getting a chance to start. He might have another good showing this week against the Vikings. Minnesota has struggled against the pass much of the year and allow the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. If you are looking for a streaming option in Week 13, White is worth consideration.
Kendall Hinton, WR, Broncos. Hinton has at least three catches three straight games and at least 8.7 fantasy points each of those games. His numbers aren’t off the charts, but he is getting the looks and producing some. He also is on the field a ton, which is encouraging. He has played at least 88 percent of the snaps three straight games. We think he can hit double-digit fantasy points this week against a bad Ravens secondary. Baltimore allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and are 27th overall against the pass.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Lions, Dolphins/49ers, Chiefs/Bengals, Chargers/Raiders.
Low Scoring Games: Packers/Bears, Commanders/Giants, Broncos/Ravens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
The Atlanta Falcons secured quarterback Kirk Cousins this offseason on a four-year, $180 million deal, setting them up to have above-average quarterback play for the first time since Matt Ryan parted ways with the organization. However, the team is not done adding to the quarterback room. "We're definitely gonna add a quarterback," Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said. "We're not going to into the season with two arms." The team has Cousins and Taylor Heinicke on the roster, but most teams carry between three and five quarterbacks in the offseason. It's unlikely that Atlanta will consider a first-round quarterback in this year's class, but they could begin to take fliers on signal-callers as soon as Round 2 begins. Cousins will turn 36 years old before the start of the 2024 season, so throwing a dart on players like Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix would make sense if they fall to the second round. On Day 3 of the draft, Spencer Rattler, Michael Pratt, and Joe Milton III are potential project options to consider. Although any quarterback Atlanta adds can be safely ignored in single-quarterback formats, they might be worth rostering in deep superflex and two-QB setups considering Cousins' age and the major Achilles injury he is coming off of.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Dolphins receiver Jaylen Waddle is having his fifth-year option exercised. Dynasty Analysis: Waddle has strung together three straight 1,000-yard seasons to start his career, so this is hardly a surprise. While his 72/1,014/4 year was a bit of a disappointment in 2023, Waddle has still shown a lot of ability and could be a player who excels later in his career when Tyreek Hill moves on. While not in the elite level of receivers, Waddle still makes for a solid WR2 target in dynasty leagues and this move ensures we'll have at least two more seasons of him in Miami.
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder) told reporters on Tuesday that he is "throwing full speed" with no limitations on motion or velocity. The 28-year-old said he's making 40-yard and 60-yard throws while following his doctor's lead, and the plan is for him to participate in OTAs in late May or early June in some capacity. However, the former Pro Bowl quarterback and the organization are likely to be careful with him during that time and focus on getting him 100% ready for training camp. Watson was limited to just six games last year before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury, and he has only played in 12 total games over the last three years. Although it's been a long time since he has delivered strong fantasy numbers, his QB21 price tag in early FFPC drafts makes him worth taking a flier on for the 2024 campaign.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb is not attending the latest series of voluntary workouts. Dynasty Analysis: This really isn't much of a story as few expected Lamb to be around until he gets a contract extension. He's entering the last year of his deal and is inevitably going to be one of the league's highest paid players after a 135/1,749/12 season. Lamb is quickly putting some heat on players like Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to be the overall WR1. Dynasty managers shouldn't be concerned until the season draws closer.
Dynasty | The Eagles and wide receiver DeVonta Smith have agreed to a $75 million contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: Smith is now under team control through the 2028 season and Smth gets $51 million in guaranteed money as part of the deal. It's a hefty price to pay for a WR2 but Smith is clearly one of the best receivers in the game and is coming off back-to-back seasons featuring more than 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in each year. While AJ Brown gets a lot of the attention, Smith could hold more true value as our WR13.
Dynasty | Las Vegas wide receiver Davante Adams has recently indicated he wants to stay with the Raiders. Dynasty Analysis: Adams is coming off a decent 103-1,144-8 season but also one that saw his production come in peaks and valleys. As the article indicates, Adams is basically saying he'd already be gone if he wanted to be. The Jets have reportedly made some overtures but those were quickly extinguished. At this point, it would be a surprise to see Adams anywhere other than Vegas next season. However, finding a decent quarterback to keep his stats where they should be is another challenge altogether. Adams has dropped to our WR26 but is still a solid trade target for a contending team.
Dynasty | Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is not attending voluntary workouts. Dynasty Analysis: Jefferson is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is in line to possibly be the highest paid receiver of all-time. Minnesota has Jordan Addison as well but Jefferson is clearly one of the biggest difference makers in the league so it would be shocking to see him hit free agency. Regardless, Jefferson is playing it safe here and dynasty managers don't need to be too concerned at this point in the off-season. He remains our WR1 at this point in time.
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said that former rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit will be started off as a running back in his transition to the NFL game in 2024. Reid said it's "not an easy transition, but he seems to be wired" for the professional game due to his experience in rugby. Rees-Zammit is getting acclimated to the team by working with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and company in Texas during in-person work. "We'll start him off at the running back position, get him to feel comfortable with that going forward here," Reid said. The head coach also said Rees-Zammit will get looks from special teams coordinator Dave Toub in the return game once the team gets into offseason work. The signing of the rugby star was interesting this offseason, but Rees-Zammit will be a long shot to become fantasy relevant in 2024.
From RotoBaller
NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe threw cold water on the idea that the Miami Dolphins could take a quarterback in Round 1 of the upcoming NFL draft. Instead, Wolfe thinks the team will go after either an offensive or defensive lineman at pick No. 21 overall. Wolfe said he'd "be shocked" if the Dolphins took a signal-caller in the first or second round this year. In addition to their offensive and defensive-line needs, the Dolphins could also use help at tight end. Don't forget that the Dolphins have only two picks in the top 150 this year, so spending a luxury pick on a QB seems like a reach if they plan on eventually extending Tagovailoa for the long term. Although nothing is official with an extension for Tagovailoa yet, all signs point to him staying in Miami long-term, so it would make sense for the Dolphins to hone in on more protection for him early in this year's draft.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier told reporters on Tuesday that the team plans to pick up the fifth-year options for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips prior to the deadline. These moves don't come as much of a surprise, especially for Waddle, after he put up his third straight 1,000-yard season in 2023 to begin his NFL career. The 25-year-old is the first pass-catcher to do that in franchise history, and it's even more impressive doing it alongside All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill the last two years. Hill's presence limits Waddle's overall fantasy upside, but he's proven these last two seasons that there's still plenty to go around for Waddle in Miami's high-octane offense. Waddle will now be guaranteed to stick in Miami for the next two seasons.
From RotoBaller
There is "nothing imminent" on an agreement between the Miami Dolphins and free-agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., according to general manager Chris Grier. Beckham was in the facilities a few weeks ago to meet with the Dolphins and an offer was made, but it doesn't sound like the two sides are particularly close to getting anything done. OBJ would offer some more receiving depth for the Dolphins behind one of the best one-two receiver punches in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle if he were to sign with Miami. The 31-year-old former 12th overall pick of the New York Giants in 2014 out of LSU is clearly past his prime due to several significant lower-body injuries, but he can still splash for some big games as a deep threat. Beckham had 35 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns in 14 regular-season games (six starts) in Baltimore in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton did not report on Monday for the start of voluntary offseason workouts as he seeks a new contract, according to a source. Sutton is going on his 10th starting quarterback in seven seasons in Denver and has only $2 million guaranteed left on his current deal. He had 10 touchdowns in 2023 while ranking 56th in the league in targets (90). The former second-round pick in 2018 out of SMU also had 59 receptions for 772 yards last year, but now that Russell Wilson is in Pittsburgh and the Broncos currently have Jarrett Stidham as their starter under center, Sutton is due for some big regression (mainly in the TD department) in 2024 if he sticks around in Denver. Even with Jerry Jeudy also gone, the 28-year-old Sutton could struggle to come close to another 1,000-yard season with more questions at QB.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions left tackle Taylor Decker (ankle, foot) said on Tuesday that he underwent surgery on his ankle and foot this offseason. The surgery was related to an injury that he's been dealing with since college. Decker said he feels great walking around now. He'll be limited this spring but should be fine for the start of the 2024 regular season this fall. Despite not being 100 percent healthy last year, the 29-year-old only missed two regular-season games for the Lions and played in all three of their playoff contests. The former 16th overall pick by Detroit in the 2016 NFL draft out of Ohio State is one of the big reasons why the Lions' offense has soared in recent seasons as he's protected quarterback Jared Goff's blind side.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants restricted free-agent cornerback Nick McCloud signed his free-agent tender offer on Monday to officially return to the team for the 2024 season. McCloud played in all 17 regular-season games (three starts) but was injured in the regular-season finale against the Philadelphia Eagles. The 25-year-old finished his third year in the NFL with 28 tackles (20 solo), his first career interception, three forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. He entered the NFL in 2021 with the Cincinnati Bengals as an undrafted free agent out of Notre Dame. In his three years in the league, McCloud has picked up 71 tackles (55 solo), 1.5 sacks, one interception, nine passes defended, three forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries in 33 games (11 starts).
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints re-signed cornerback Shemar Jean-Charles on Monday after not tendering him as a restricted free agent. Jean-Charles spent the 2023 campaign with the San Francisco 49ers and Saints and will now return to the Big Easy in 2024 after finishing last year with a combined four tackles (three solo) in eight games (zero starts) with both teams. The 25-year-old Florida native was originally a fifth-round selection by the Green Bay Packers in 2021 out of Appalachian State and spent the first two seasons of his NFL career in Green Bay, recording just seven solo tackles in 20 games played (zero starts). Jean-Charles will merely be hoping to make New Orleans' active roster this summer out of training camp.
From RotoBaller
The Green Bay Packers re-signed exclusive-rights free-agent running back Emanuel Wilson to an undisclosed deal on Monday. Wilson entered the league as an undrafted free agent out of Fort Valley State in 2023 with the Packers and had 14 carries for 85 yards and caught four of five targets for 23 additional yards in seven regular-season games (zero starts) in his rookie campaign. Barring injuries to the team's running back room, the 24-year-old should be in line for a similar depth role behind backs Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon in 2024, making him pretty useless to begin the year in fantasy circles. Wilson is currently the team's No. 3 RB, but that could change, depending on what the Packers do at the position in the upcoming NFL draft.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Rams running back Ronnie Rivers and offensive lineman Alaric Jackson both signed their free-agent tender offers on Monday. Rivers will be heading into his third year with the Rams in 2024 after entering the NFL in 2022 with LA as an undrafted free agent out of Fresno State. The 25-year-old had 32 carries last year for 129 yards and caught all five of his targets for 22 additional yards in nine regular-season games (one start) in his second year. Depending on what the Rams do in the upcoming NFL draft, Rivers could be battling with Zach Evans for the No. 2 backfield role in training camp this summer behind starter Kyren Williams. At best, Rivers will be a handcuff option in deeper leagues for fantasy managers that take Williams.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders star edge rusher Maxx Crosby (knee) is back to 100 percent health and is as optimistic as ever entering his first full year under head coach Antonio Pierce in 2024. "Recovery and rehab has been incredible," Crosby said on Monday. "I just did my conditioning tests last week and smashed it. And I'm feeling better than I ever have, so it's been an incredible offseason so far." Despite dealing with a nagging knee injury last year, Crosby had career-highs in sacks (14.5), tackles (90) and tackles for loss (23) in 17 games to earn his third Pro Bowl selection and a second-team All-Pro selection. It's scary to think what a fully healthy Crosby could do in 2024 as one of the best pure pass-rushers in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is scheduled to have dinner with the New England Patriots' brass and coaching staff on Monday night in Foxboro and has a top-30 visit with the team on Tuesday, according to sources. With the No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft, the Patriots are looking at all of this year's top quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams, who is expected to be taken first overall by the Chicago Bears. The Washington Commanders are also in the market for a signal-caller and have the second overall pick. If the Commanders and Patriots don't trade back in the first round, the expectation is that QBs will be taken with at least the first three picks in this year's draft. Although Penix's draft stock has risen since his pro day, it would still be a surprise if New England didn't come away with either LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye with the third overall pick.
From RotoBaller
Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis (ankle) is visiting with the New York Jets on Monday. The 23-year-old suffered a brutal ankle injury that ended his final collegiate season, yet he still finished fifth in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting. Travis threw for over 8,000 yards and 66 touchdowns and rushed for nearly 2,000 yards and 31 touchdowns in his 49 college games, so he has plenty of experience to be at least a quality backup in the NFL. The Jets have Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) and Tyrod Taylor on the roster, but with Rodgers set to turn 41 years old at the end of next season, the organization could start to throw darts at the quarterback position in the later round of the next few drafts.
From RotoBaller
