Lineup Prep: Wild Card Weekend
Wed Jan 11 9:16am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Kittle can keep it going this week
More and more fantasy owners are playing in playoff leagues, and for good reason. They are a lot of fun contests and leagues out there these days. We run several on our site. Your fantasy leagues don’t have to come to an end because the regular season is over. I highly suggest getting involved in a league if you can. It is a great way to get your fantasy fix a little longer. Plus, there are a lot of interesting formats for leagues, giving you a different fantasy dynamic than during the regular season. So we’ll continue with this column throughout the playoffs, getting you ready for your games each week.
With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
I’m really excited to watch the Jaguars this weekend. They are a team on the rise with a lot of top young talent. It will be interesting to see how they play on the big stage. Trevor Lawrence was a little shaky last week, so I’m wondering how he handles things this weekend. These playoff games can vault a players confidence in a hurry. I’m hoping Lawrence comes up big and balls out, keeping his progress going forward.
It really seems like the knee injury Lamar Jacksons suffered is pretty serious and he is in real doubt to play this week. You also have to wonder if the contract situation is playing into this at all for Jackson. Maybe he doesn’t want to risk anything without a long-term deal signed. Who knows? Either way, the Ravens have next to no chance to win that game this weekend if Jackson can’t play.
Here is to hoping the Bears use that first round pick this year to get the help that Justin Fields needs. Their offensive line needs upgrades and the passing game needs a lot of help at receiver. Hopefully, they can turn that top pick into a lot more picks to get Fields help. This is a big offseason for the Bears. I will be anxious to see how they handle it all.
I really do wonder how much of a negative impact Nathaniel Hackett had on Russell Wilson. He sure looked like a different quarterback after Hackett was fired late in the year. Maybe we shouldn’t give up on him just yet. The Broncos do have a lot of weapons in the passing game, so Wilson has a high ceiling if he can get his game back. Wilson surely will be a polarizing fantasy figure next season. I might be in on him for the right price, though.
I’m having a hard time deciding on the representatives for the Super Bowl this year. The AFC is really tough with the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals as legit contenders to go all the way. And I even think the Chargers are talented enough to make a run. So I really think four teams could go the Super Bowl out of the AFC. The NFC isn’t quite as tough in my view, mainly because the Vikings and Cowboys are limping into the playoffs. That leaves the Eagles and 49ers as the obvious choices. And it is hard to bet against the 49ers right now with that team playing so well. The big concern for me is Brock Purdy. Can he make the big play if called upon? So I say this with little conviction, I will go with the Bills and Eagles as the winner of their conferences. We’ll see how that works out!
News and Notes: Reports are the Cardinals plan to trade receiver DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. He is getting older and has battled injury the last few seasons, but could be a big help to a receiver needy team. . . . .The Ravens signed linebacker Roquan Smith to a five-year, 100 million dollar extensions on Tuesday. Smith is now a mainstay in the Ravens defense for years to come.
HOT PLAYS
George Kittle, TE, 49ers. It took a little time but Kittle is red hot right now. He has touchdowns four straight games and multiple scores three of those games. And one of those games came against the Seahawks, who he plays this week. Kittle had four catches for 93 yards and two scores against the Seahawks in Week 15. Seattle has struggled against the tight end all year. The Seahawks allow the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Kittle is setup for a big game in this one.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars. Etienne struggled his last game, rushing seven time for just 17 yards. but that was against a good Titans rush defense. He had at least 13 fantasy points three straight before last week. And Etienne had 100-yard rushing games two his last three before Week 18. He can get it going again this week against the Chargers. The Chargers allow the seventh most fantasy points to running backs and rank 28th overall against the rush.
Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs. Godwin topped 100 receptions for the first time in his career this season. And this was a year he was coming off a torn ACL and missed a couple games because of injury. He is clearly healthy and the top target in this passing game. He has at least five receptions 14 straight games. Look for him to keep it going in the Bucs playoff opener. The Cowboys have had issues stopping the pass, so look for Godwin to get a workout. Dallas allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.
COLD PLAYS
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. Prescott is coming off arguably his worst game of the season. He was just 14-of-37 for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Commander last week. It was an alarming performance as the Cowboys head into the playoffs. And he plays a Bucs team on the road that is ninth overall against the pass to open things. It might be another long day for Prescott in this matchup.
Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker had a great rookie season, emerging as the lead back and producing big in that role. He had three straight 100-yard games to end his season. But the game before that streak was against the 49ers, a game he ran 12 times for just 47 yards. It might be more of the same this week against a very good San Francisco defense. The 49ers are second overall against the run and allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs this year.
Tua Tagovailoa or whoever plays QB for the Dolphins. Tagovailoa really cooled off down the stretch before his latest concussion. He had few than 20 fantasy points four of his last five games. He also plays the Bills this week, a team he scored about 33 fantasy points against in two games this year. Buffalo allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks for the season. Tagovailoa or whoever starts for the Dolphins at quarterback this week is going to be a risk for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones quietly put together a very good season. He took a big step forward this year in an offense that really lacks weapons in the passing game. Despite that, Jones was 12th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He had 25-plus fantasy points two straight games to end his season and topped 20 points four of his last five. He has a great matchup to produce in his playoff debut. The Vikings have struggled against the pass all season, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Minnesota is just 31st overall against the pass, allowing 265.6-passing yards per game.
James Cook, RB, Bills. Cook has enjoyed a bit of an up and down rookie season, but is playing his best football right now. He has double-digit fantasy points three of his last five games. Don’t discount him to have a big game or two in the playoffs. You could see the Bills getting up big in this one, running out the clock late in the game. This could mean more touches for Cook, who might be playing better than Devin Singletary right now. The Dolphins are solid against the run but have allowed 15-rushing touchdowns this season, which also bodes well for Cook.
Richie James, WR, Giants. James has emerged as the top receiver for the Giants. He has at least seven receptions three of four games. He has topped 17 fantasy points three of those games. He also has at least 13 fantasy points five of seven. He is getting it done on a weekly basis. And he gets a bad Vikings secondary this week. Minnesota allows the second most fantasy points to receivers. James is setup to top double-digit fantasy points once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chargers/Jaguars, Giants/Vikings.
Low Scoring Games: Cowboys/Bucs.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.
When asked by Rich Eisen if he has any idea on where he's going to end up in this week's NFL draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy hinted at the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the first round on Thursday night. "I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I've spent the most time with. They're a phenomenal staff," McCarthy said. The young QB's stock has been rising rapidly ever since his pro-day workout. Reports suggest the Giants and Vikings could be in a raise to trade up to select McCarthy, who is attractive because of his experience running a pro-style offense in college. With Daniel Jones (knee) coming off a torn ACL and with no guaranteed money owed to him beyond 2024, the G-Men have done their due diligence on QBs in this year's draft and feel like a lock to take one at some point this week.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe predicts that New York Giants will trade the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in order to move up to fourth overall to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy on Thursday night. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down for a second straight year. If LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye remain available at No. 4, the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders would probably become more aggressive in pursuing the fourth overall pick. "I think there's going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings," a coach said. McCarthy doesn't have the upside that the top three QBs in this class do, but rival executives cited concerns with Giants current QB Daniel Jones' (knee) health after tearing his ACL and dealing with a neck injury in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe thinks No. 3 to the New England Patriots in Thursday night's NFL draft feels like the spot for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, although a couple executives made a case for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and athletic ability, but there's genuine concern about his inconsistencies in 2023, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. He has a reputation as a high-character person with great leadership abilities. Maye would be the more traditional pick at No. 3 to the Pats, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprise. If Maye is still available at No. 3, one executive thinks the Minnesota Vikings "would move heaven and Earth" to try and move up to draft him. If Maye lands in New England, he could sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys officially picked up hybrid defensive end Micah Parsons' fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the move. Parsons' salary is worth $21.32 million as a defensive end, which is the position at which he played the majority of his snaps in 2023. The 24-year-old former 12th overall pick in 2021 out of Penn State has been a beast rushing the passer so far in his first three NFL seasons. He's made the Pro Bowl in all three seasons and has a total of 213 tackles (142 solo), 40.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss, 89 QB hits, eight passes defended, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries (one returned for a touchdown) in 50 regular-season starts. Parsons had 64 tackles and a career-high 14 sacks in 2023 and will once again be a highly coveted pass-rusher in IDP fantasy formats this fall.
From RotoBaller
Word around the league is that the Washington Commanders have advocates in their building for both LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and North Carolina QB Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for The Athletic's story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for Daniels. The belief from rival teams is that the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process, but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick. One executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn't rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. Still, it's highly unlikely Daniels drops out of the top five. If he goes to D.C., he'll be favored to start from Day 1 in his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers linebacker Shaq Thompson (leg), offensive guard Austin Corbett (knee), pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and running back Tarik Cohen (Achilles) have all been taking part in drills during voluntary offseason workouts this week. Meanwhile, offensive guard Chandler Zavala (knee) and linebackers D.J. Wonnum (quadriceps) Amare Barno (knee) weren't participating in drills. Thompson, who suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 last year against the New Orleans Saints, is the most notable name of this group. The 30-year-old should be ready to go for training camp and the preseason later this year as long as he doesn't suffer a setback before then. The former 25th overall pick in 2015 out of Washington recorded 100-plus combined tackles in each of his previous four seasons with Carolina before getting hurt in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson has requested to be traded from the Bengals, according to a league source. Hendrickson is due to make $15 million in 2024 and is looking for more long-term security than the Bengals have been willing to offer. It remains to be seen if the 29-year-old's wish will be granted with the first round of the 2024 NFL draft coming on Thursday evening. The former third-round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2017 out of Florida Atlantic has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons with the Bengals. In 17 starts in 2023, he had a career-high 43 tackles (28 solo), a career-high 17.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 25 QB hits and three forced fumbles. Even if he heads to a new team for 2024, Hendrickson should still be in play as a weekly starting defensive lineman in IDP fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are currently meeting with free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott's representatives around the facility on Wednesday, a day before the start of the 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. There has been mutual interest from both sides in a reunion this offseason as the Cowboys look to bolster their running back position after losing Tony Pollard in free agency. As of right now, Dallas' RB room consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, Royce Freeman and Snoop Conner. The 28-year-old Elliott had 184 carries for 642 yards (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns while adding 51 catches for 313 yards and another two scores through the air in 17 games for the New England Patriots in 2023. At this point in his career, Zeke needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and that probably won't happen if he returns to Dallas.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent RB Ezekiel Elliott's (Patriots) representative is meeting with the Dallas Cowboys Wednesday, April 24, according to a source.
Fantasy Spin: The Cowboys do not have a clear starter at running back, so Elliott probably would have a big role if he decided to return to the Cowboys. Fantasy players can monitor the situation because Elliott could be at least a flex option if he starts in 2024.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent DE Dawuane Smoot (Jaguars) recently met with the Houston Texans.
From TheHuddle
The Los Angeles Chargers are set to undergo a rebuilding phase following the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the departures of longtime offensive weapons Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. L.A. has been rumored to be a top landing spot for Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison or LSU wideout Malik Nabers, but Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report suggests they are likely to pick an offensive tackle if they stay at pick No. 5. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is expected to be the first player at the position off the board. Alt has been mocked to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 7 for much of the offseason, so the Chargers picking the 2023 first-team All-American would shake things up drastically. The Chargers have a lot of options with teams potentially trying to move up for a quarterback, so they are one of the key teams to monitor in the first round on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament at the quarterback spot. The organization signed Daniel Jones (knee) to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, but he didn't play well in 2023, and he is coming off a torn ACL. There has been plenty of buzz surrounding New York selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that they could pass on a quarterback if North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't available at pick No. 6. "Most teams believe if Maye is off the board, the Giants' most likely scenario is to go wide receiver to land a player who can help an offense that was last in the league in yards after the catch in 2023," Russini wrote. If the reports are true, look for New York to target LSU's Malik Nabers in that draft slot. That said, Washington's Rome Odunze is likely in consideration as well.
From RotoBaller
University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has seemingly been rising draft boards this offseason, and NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that he could enter the discussion to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board. "It's been assumed the top four QBs are Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy," Russini wrote "But don't be surprised if Penix enters the discussion come Thursday." Penix, who will be 24 years old during his rookie season, had a monster two-year stretch with Washington after four injury-riddled campaigns at Indiana. In 2022 and 2023, combined, the lefty posted 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. He ran between a 4.51 and 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Huskies' Pro Day, so his 226 career rushing yards might not demonstrate his full rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent DE Calais Campbell (Falcons) is a player the Atlanta Falcons are open to re-signing this offseason, according to general manager Terry Fontenot.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a monster 2023 season, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He led Detroit to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and the organization won two playoff games in a single postseason for the first time since 1957. On Wednesday, the team signed Pro Bowl wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to high-dollar four-year contract extensions, but Goff is reportedly not close to agreeing to a new long-term deal. According to Adam Schefter, no new deal is "imminent" as of now. This will be an interesting development to watch play out, as the former Los Angeles Rams No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of his contract in the Motor City and could become a free agent next offseason.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Lions have signed wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: The contract is basically a four-year, $120 million extension with $77 million guaranteed, the most ever for a wide receiver in NFL history. It's a huge haul for St. Brown, who has quickly established himself as one of the best players in the NFL. After his 119/1,515/10 season last year, the Lions were going to either pay him or risk losing him after his rookie deal expired. They've clearly chosen to build around him and he should be firmly cemented as a WR1 in dynasty moving forward. St. Brown is an easy target for any team looking for a premier centerpiece to their dynasty team as the best could truly be yet to come.
