Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Tom Brady May 16 3:30pm CT
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The New England Patriots signed center David Andrews to a contract extension through the 2025 season, according to NFL insider Field Yates. The new deal gives Andrews a base salary of $12 million over the next two seasons with a maximum value of $13 million. He also gets $8 million guaranteed. Despite the organization's regression following the departure of Tom Brady, Andrews has remained one of the better centers in the league. He was named to the New England Patriots All-2010s Team and has been given a 71.2 or better PFF grade in each of the last three seasons. Protecting rookie quarterback Drake Maye will be a key priority for New England moving forward, so locking up Andrews is a good step in doing so.

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Kevin Byard May 16 3:20pm CT
Kevin Byard

The Jacksonville Jaguars signed veteran safety Terrell Edmunds on Thursday, according to NFL.com. The 2018 first-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers spent last season with the Philadelphia Eagles before being traded to the Tennessee Titans in a package for All-Pro safety Kevin Byard. Through six NFL seasons with three teams, he has accumulated 458 tackles (310 solo), 7.5 sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, six interceptions, and 28 passes defended in 95 games. Edmunds has not lived up to his hype as a prospect coming out of Virginia Tech, but he's a solid depth piece in the secondary and will likely play meaningful snaps as a reserve safety in 2024.

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Quintez Cephus May 16 2:00pm CT
Quintez Cephus

To make room on the roster for the signing of safety Dee Delaney on an undisclosed one-year contract, the Buffalo Bills released wide receiver Quintez Cephus on Thursday. The Bills added Cephus in free agency in April, but he's now back on the open market after missing all of last year due to a suspension for violating the league's policy on gambling. The 26-year-old was originally a fifth-round selection by the Detroit Lions in the 2020 NFL draft out of Wisconsin. All three of his NFL seasons have come with the Lions, and Cephus has recorded just 37 catches on 60 targets for 568 receiving yards and four touchdowns in 22 total games (six starts). If Cephus ends up being picked up by another team, he'll merely be attempting to make the active roster out of training camp this summer.

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Micah Hyde May 16 1:30pm CT
Micah Hyde

Free-agent safety Micah Hyde said he will either re-sign with the Buffalo Bills or choose retirement. Hyde has played in just 16 total games the last two years in Buffalo due to injuries, although he managed to play in 14 regular-season games in 2023 and recorded 54 tackles (37 solo), two interceptions and seven passes defended. The 33-year-old has been with the Bills since 2017 after spending the first four years of his career with the Green Bay Packers. The Packers took him in the fifth round in 2013 out of Iowa. Hyde's lone Pro Bowl season came in his first year in Buffalo, when he recorded a career-high 82 tackles (65 solo), a career-high-tying five interceptions, and a career-high 13 passes defended in 16 starts. If he returns to Buffalo and plays one more season, he'll bring a veteran presence to the Bills' secondary.

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MarShawn Lloyd May 16 1:20pm CT
MarShawn Lloyd

The Green Bay Packers signed rookie third-round running back MarShawn Lloyd to a four-year, $5.688 million rookie deal on Thursday. The contract includes a $959,284 signing bonus and a $50,000 workout bonus annually from 2025 to 2027. Even though Josh Jacobs is the Packers' unquestioned lead back and AJ Dillon re-signed for a complementary role, the Packers have plans to incorporate Lloyd right away in his rookie season in 2024. The 23-year-old is explosive and versatile out of the backfield, but he's going to need to hang onto the football tighter at the next level if he wants to see consistent touches as a handcuff for fantasy managers that draft Jacobs early this fall. In addition to being worth a late-round flier in deeper redraft leagues in 2024, Lloyd is an attractive dynasty/keeper stash.

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Quentin Johnston May 16 1:20pm CT
Quentin Johnston

The Los Angeles Chargers passed on drafting a wide receiver with the No. 5 overall pick in this year's NFL draft, which puts second-year wideout and former first-rounder Quentin Johnston in a spot to be the team's No. 1 entering the 2024 campaign. "We believe in it. He's a great kid, he's a great worker. Everyone here has a high opinion of him. I believe he's really going to launch. I really do. His skill set is great. We're gonna work with him, make him better and better," general manager Joe Hortiz said. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams left this offseason, leaving Johnson, who struggled with 38 catches on 67 targets for 431 yards and two touchdowns in his first NFL season, with a much larger role in 2024. Johnston is certainly going to have more opportunities to produce for the Chargers and fantasy managers, but the 22-year-old is going to need to gain more separation and clear up his issues with drops.

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Robert Tonyan May 16 1:10pm CT
Robert Tonyan

Former Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan signed an undisclosed deal with the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday. Tonyan will stay in the NFC North after playing in all 17 regular-season games with the Chicago Bears in 2203, catching just 11 of 17 targets for 107 receiving yards and no touchdowns. The 30-year-old's addition in Minnesota will give the Vikings a little more depth at the position with T.J. Hockenson (knee) trying to return this fall from a serious knee injury. If Hockenson isn't ready to go for Week 1, Tonyan, Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt would be competing for playing time. Even if Hockenson is delayed to start the 2024 campaign, Tonyan probably won't be anything more than a touchdown-dependent TE2 option in fantasy for a short period of time. He has a total of 148 catches (193 targets) for 1,549 yards and 17 touchdowns (11 in 2020) in his six years in the NFL.

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Michael Brockers May 15 11:30pm CT
Michael Brockers

Former Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman Michael Brockers announced on Instagram on Tuesday that he is retiring from professional football after 11 seasons in the league. He was the heart and soul of the Rams defense for nine years before playing the final two years of his career with the Detroit Lions in 2021 and 2022. The Rams, then in St. Louis, took Brockers with the 14th overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft out of LSU. Brockers was cut in February of 2023 by Detroit and did not play last season. In his 11 seasons in the NFL, he recorded 451 total tackles (274 solo), 29 sacks, 52 tackles for loss, 64 QB hits, 10 passes defended, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 160 games (157 starts). In his nine seasons with the Rams, Brockers was as consistent as they come, only missing six total games.

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Jermaine Burton May 15 11:20pm CT
Jermaine Burton

Cincinnati Bengals rookie wide receiver Jermaine Burton has left a positive impression on the coaching staff despite being drafted less than two weeks ago. According to SI's Albert Breer, Burton has already shown the Bengals that he is a "competitive kid who has good ball skills and the explosiveness to separate from coverage in the NFL." Breer noted that Burton has worked through some off-the-field issues but has the talent needed to make an impact at the pro level. He's currently competing for the No. 3 receiver role behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Such a position on the depth chart was most recently occupied by Tyler Boyd. The Bengals would love to get production out of Burton in his first pro season, and as Breer points out, he could benefit from Chase and Higgins drawing away coverage.

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Cameron Heyward May 15 11:20pm CT
Cameron Heyward

Pittsburgh Steelers six-time Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Heyward hasn't attended the team's voluntary offseason workouts and doesn't plan to attend organized team activities as he seeks a contract extension, according to sources. Heyward is a long-time team captain who has never missed an offseason program. The 35-year-old former 31st overall pick by the Steelers in 2011 out of Ohio State is entering the final year of his four-year, $65 million deal. The 35-year-old has obviously been one of the faces of the franchises for a long time now, but he played in only 11 games due to a core injury in 2023 and finished with just 33 tackles (25 solo), two sacks, six tackles for loss and a pass defended. Contract issues aside, Heyward is expected to be a full-go for the start of training camp and the 2024 regular season. He has 80.5 career sacks and could be streamer in IDP leagues in good matchups if he's healthy in 2024.

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Anthony Richardson May 15 11:10pm CT
Anthony Richardson

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder) has demonstrated more knowledge and maturity this offseason, quarterbacks coach Cam Turner told the media. "He's the same athletic Anthony that we know, but in the meeting room, he's taking that step as far as the knowledge and the maturity of the question he's asking now are the next level questions," Turner said. "As opposed to the questions he was asking a year ago were more basic. He's definitely grown in our scheme and then identifying defenses as well." This is a very positive sign out of Indianapolis as it suggests that Richardson is becoming more comfortable with his own abilities and the Colts' offensive scheme ahead of his second pro season. The former first-round pick is working his way back from a shoulder injury but has shown that he can be a real playmaker when healthy. Assuming he's ready to go for Week 1, Richardson (armed with the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor) will rank as a low-end QB1 in fantasy football.

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Damiere Byrd May 15 11:00pm CT
Damiere Byrd

The Washington Commanders have signed free agent wide receiver Damiere Byrd following a workout, according to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report. The veteran is entering his ninth season in the league, but he's never finished higher than the WR67 in fantasy football. He spent the last two years with the Atlanta Falcons but registered just two targets during one game in 2023. Byrd represents a low-risk signing for the Commanders, and he'll be tasked with competing for a roster spot while leaving his veteran impact on some of his younger teammates in Washington.

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Tee Higgins May 15 10:50pm CT
Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins continues to grow frustrated as his trade request from last month has gone unanswered. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Higgins is "pissed" about the lack of a shared vision between himself and the team. Higgins was once said to be seeking a deal similar to Michael Pittman Jr.'s three-year, $70 million pact, but Cincinnati reportedly never came close to that price tag. This prompted the talented receiver to request a trade, but the Bengals made it clear (via Jeremy Fowler of ESPN) that they have "no plans" to trade him. Therefore, the stalemate continues between Cincinnati and Higgins. One has to wonder if too many bridges have been burned and a holdout might be in the cards.

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Caleb Williams May 15 3:40pm CT
Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams will begin his career at home against the Tennessee Titans, according to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report. The former USC star will have no shortage of weapons to work with to begin his career, so he could get out to a hot start with Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Oduzne out wide. Tennessee was a middle-of-the-pack team against the pass last season, but the organization signed former Baltimore Ravens defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson as their defensive coordinator and added cornerbacks L'Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie to the back end of the defense. Overall, it should be a great first test for one of the highest-regarded quarterback prospects of the 21st century.

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C.J. Stroud May 15 3:20pm CT
C.J. Stroud

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Kansas City Chiefs will square off against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Houston Texans will host the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day during the 2024 NFL season. For different reasons, all four teams will be interesting to monitor this year. Kansas City is aiming to be the first franchise to win three straight Super Bowls, Pittsburgh will be led by Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, Baltimore looks to get over the hump in search of a Lombardi Trophy, and Houston was one of last year's big surprise teams to contend in the playoffs. With no shortage of disappointing primetime matchups over the last few years, games featuring stars like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, T.J. Watt, and more on Christmas should be exciting. These two Christmas Day games will be streamed exclusively on Netflix.

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Daniel Jones May 15 2:00pm CT
Daniel Jones

The New York Giants will debut on the HBO show Hard Knocks: Offseason in 2024 in their 100th season in the NFL. The show will feature the Giants for the first time since the series' debut in 2001 as the four-time Super Bowl-winning franchise prepares for its 100th season. It will be the first iteration of Hard Knocks to document the NFL offseason, chronicling the G-Men's moves from January to July. The five-episode season will debut on Tuesday, July 2. Hard Knocks has been in New York twice before with the Jets in 2010 and 2023 and has also followed the Dallas Cowboys three different times (2002, 2008, 2021). In New York, this will be their first year without running back Saquon Barkley while quarterback Daniel Jones (knee) tries to come back from a torn ACL in 2023. New York took receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in this year's draft.

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Rodney McLeod May 15 1:20pm CT
Rodney McLeod

Cleveland Browns safety Rodney McLeod said that he will retire following the 2024 season, which will be his 13th year in the league. "This is the last lap for me," McLeod said Monday during an appearance on NFL Network's "NFL Total Access." He will turn 34 in June and signed a one-year deal this offseason to return to the Browns for a second season. McLeod entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Virginia in 2012. He spent the first four seasons of his career with the Rams before joining the Eagles from 2016-21. McLeod was with the Colts in 2022 and had 29 tackles (16 solo) and a pass defended in 10 regular season games (five starts) last year. He suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week 11. It sounds as though McLeod is now healthy as he looks to provide veteran secondary depth for Cleveland in 2024.

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Velus Jones Jr. May 15 1:10pm CT
Velus Jones Jr.

Chicago Bears wide receiver/return man Velus Jones Jr. should only benefit from the new kickoff rules in the NFL that will start for the 2024 season. "How it pertains to our team, you can only think about a guy like Velus Jones. Great example," special teams coordinator Richard Hightower said. "A guy like that with his type of skill set, with the speed and the power that he has, and he's coming full speed ahead at you, it's like a damn freight train running at you." Jones' average of 27.4 yards per return trails only Keisean Nixon over the last two years. He hasn't worked out as a punt returner and also hasn't had much of a role in the offense since entering the league in 2022, but the 27-year-old's size/speed combo could come in handy for the Bears on kickoffs this year. The Bears could also use running back Khalil Herbert on kickoffs.

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D'Andre Swift May 15 1:10pm CT
D'Andre Swift

Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift will be taking over the team's lead running back in 2024 after he signed with the team minutes into the start of free agency in early March. "He's exciting to watch, man. That guy, he's got so much ability. He's fast, he can make guys miss and what we're excited about now is just opening up the passing game with the backs. He's got that opportunity to have that one-on-one matchup out of the backfield. We can get him out on empty (formation). We do a lot of empty stuff here, too, so we can move this guy all around. He can win from any spot," RBs coach Chad Morton said. When Morton coached in Seattle in 2023, Kenneth Walker III had 219 carries for 905 yards, with Zach Charbonnet carrying the ball 108 times for 462 yards. Swift is surely intriguing as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but he's inevitably going to lose touches to Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, and the Bears also have plenty of receivers that will command targets.

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Javon Baker May 14 11:00pm CT
Javon Baker

New England Patriots rookie wide receiver Javon Baker flashed significant promise during his first NFL practice this week, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic. Howe notes that Baker made several impressive plays. He reached to save a sailing throw, utilized "nifty footwork" to get out of his break on a crossing route, and generally demonstrated smooth route-running." There will be growing pains in 2024 as head coach Jerod Mayo, quarterback Drake Maye, and receivers Ja'Lynn Polk and Baker embark on their rookie seasons. However, early indications suggest that Baker could make an immediate impact in New England, earning opportunities over the likes of Polk, Kendrick Bourne, and Demario Douglas. He's a fringe top-30 rookie in fantasy football dynasty leagues.

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