Lineup Prep: Week 12
Wed Nov 24 9:47am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Mooney should remain hot
This is always one of my favorite “Lineup Prep” columns of the year. It is the Thanksgiving edition. I tell you all the things I’m thankful for with a fantasy spin. Here is to hoping you have a great Thanksgiving!
I’m thankful for in-depth stats. There are so many stats you access now. It is so helpful when it comes to analyzing fantasy football. You can get snap counts, target shares, red zone targets, fantasy defense stats. You name it and you can likely get it. The information for fantasy football users is off the charts this day and age.
I’m thankful for the running quarterback. The advent of the mobile quarterback has changed the landscape of the position, especially in fantasy land. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have such a high weekly floor because of their ability to make plays with their legs. It makes targeting them come draft day the smart move for fantasy teams.
I’m thankful for the parity in the NFL. This league has been so crazy this year, seeing so many teams play erratic football. You just never know what you are going to see any given week. This is causing fantasy leagues to be a lot more crazy as well, having erratic point totals from week to week. I think this makes for more excitement in fantasy leagues, which is never a bad thing.
I’m thankful for rookies. Every year there are a handful of exciting, young players that take the fantasy world by storm. This year is no different with Najee Harris and Ja’Marr Chase leading the way. You never know how a rookie will pan out, but when you hit, it sure is exciting. These guys can be fantasy difference makers.
I’m thankful for players like Deebo Samuel. There are players every year that are picked in the middle or so rounds of drafts that end up being fantasy superstars. This is exactly what has happened to Samuel, who is second overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Preseason rankings don’t always go as planned, so seeing a player ranked lower really outperform their draft spot is exciting. Hopefully, you hit on a few of these guys in your league this year.
I’m thankful for the easy access of information these days. It is so much easier than when I first started in the industry. My job used to be scouring the local newspapers, reading all the practice reports from the previous day. These days all you have to do is get on Twitter or search the internet for the latest practice news. The stuff is reported as it happens. This makes it so much easier for fantasy owners, having so much more information at their fingertips.
I’m thankful for the craziness at the tight end position. I know it might drive some crazy but I think it makes for some great strategy, especially come draft day. The position is just so top heavy. Do you use an early pick on Travis Kelce or Darren Waller? Or do you wait and pick two players like Noah Fant and Jared Cook to platoon on a weekly basis? It would be a lot easier if there are 10 surefire fantasy tight ends, but no one ever said fantasy football was easy, right?
I’m thankful for the NFL RedZone channel. Is there a better way to watch football as a fantasy football fan? I don’t think so. I mean you get to see all the scores and all the action when teams are close to scoring. It is a fascinating way to watch the games. And it makes for some real excitement as you are trying to see what you are doing in your fantasy games. The highs and lows come real quick when watching the NFL RedZone.
Lastly, I’m thankful for all of our users. We truly have the best users in the fantasy world that are on RealTime Fantasy Sports. It is so great to be a part of. It truly feels like a community on our site and I’m proud to be just a small part of that. So I want to thank all of you out there for helping make this place the best to play fantasy sports.
News and Notes: The Texans released running back Phillip Lindsay on Tuesday. Lindsay saw his playing time dip in recent weeks, so this move isn’t a complete surprise. Rex Burkhead and David Johnson should handle most of the running back duties going forward. . . . .The Bears reportedly will fire head coach Matt Nagy after their Week 12 game. . . . .The Giants fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett on Tuesday. You could see this coming with the way the offense had played recently. Tight end’s coach Freddie Kitchens will take over the offensive coordinator position going forward for the Giants. . . . .The Titans released Adrian Peterson on Tuesday. This might be the end of the line for Peterson, who did little with his chances in Tennessee.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk has finally become a factor in the 49ers offense once again. He had his best game of the season last week, catching seven passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. He has scores two of three games and double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He is finally getting more consistent targets and producing with those chances. He should keep up his hot play this week against the Vikings, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. You can be frustrated all you want about rookie Javonte Williams not playing more, but at this point, it doesn’t looking like things are going to change in the backfield. Gordon is going to be a big part of the offense every week. And as long as he is on the field, he has fantasy value. Gordon has touchdowns four straight games and double-digit fantasy points five straight. He seems setup for at least another score this week against the Chargers, a team that is dead last against the run and has allowed 13-rushing touchdowns.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is eighth in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He has taken over as the No. 1 receiver in Chicago and is playing great in that role. He had his second 100-yard game of the season last week and has touchdowns two straight. He had a season-high 16 targets last week. Mooney has moved into must start territory for fantasy teams, especially this week against the Lions. Detroit has allowed more than 30 points in a game four times this season.
James Robinson, RB, Jaguars. Robinson didn’t have a great game last week but was still able to find the end zone. He has scores two straight games and seems to be getting a little healthier every week. He seems ready to have one of his big performances. And a matchup this week against the Falcons gives him a good chance for that huge game. Atlanta is a mess defensively and allow the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. The Falcons allow 123.3-rushing yards per game and have given up 10-rushing touchdowns.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys. Schultz had his best game in a few weeks in Week 11, having six receptions for 53 yards on eight targets. All the injuries at receiver for the Cowboys opens the door for Schultz to get more targets. It should be more of the same this week for Schultz against the Raiders. Las Vegas also struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends.
COLD PLAYS
Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins. Gaskin has been getting his most work of the season lately, having a season high 23 carries last week. He has 20 or more carries two of three games. The Dolphins have made it a point to get him more involved in the offense. But even with that said, his producing hasn’t been great. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards three of four games. He might get a lot of work again this week but that might not lead to much production once again. Gaskin plays the Panthers, a team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Giants. Golladay has been a big disappointment much of the season. He caught just a pass for 12 yards on two targets last week. He has three receptions for 40 yards on four targets his last two games. He has a few big games this year but you can’t bank on that right now with his recent play and the struggles of the Giants offense. Plus, he has a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, a team that has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans. Tannehill had a season high 52 pass attempts last week but that didn’t lead to al to of fantasy production. He scored just a touchdown and finished with fewer than 17 fantasy points. He has fewer than 17 points two of three games. The loss of Derrick Henry has really impacted the entire offense, including the passing game. Tannehill just hasn’t looked like the same quarterback from the past few years. Plus, he is dealing with a lot of injuries at the receiver spot, which isn’t helping. He gets the Patriots this week, a team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. If you have better options, go with them.
Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. The emergence of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is a concern for Harris owners. Harris still had double-digit carries his last time out but that total was his lowest since Week 4. We aren’t giving up on Harris just yet but he might be a little more hit or miss going forward, especially against teams with good run defenses. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Titans. Tennessee is a mess against the pass but do well against the run, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Tennessee is fourth overall against the rush, allowing just 97.2-rushing yards per game.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos. Sutton just signed a big contract extension this week, but that doesn’t mean you just plug him into your fantasy lineup. He has really struggled lately, having six or fewer fantasy points three straight games. He has 40 or fewer yards all three of those games. His production has really been up and down all year, especially with Jerry Jeudy is healthy and in the lineup. Things won’t be much easier for him this week against the Chargers, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers.
SLEEPERS
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. Garoppolo is playing his best football right now. He has multiple touchdowns three straight games and has just one interception during that stretch. He also has 300-yard games two of four games. Garoppolo can have another good showing this week against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 21st overall against the pass. He is a good streaming play for Week 12.
Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers. Anderson is having a really disappointing season, but starting to show a few signs of life. And the addition of Cam Newton to the starting lineup should be a good thing for Anderson. He has six targets each of his last two games and has nine receptions on those 12 targets. He is finally getting a little more work and helping fantasy teams. He might be worth a shot this week against the Dolphins, a team that has allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers this season.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Ravens. Latavius Murray returned to the lineup last week, but Freeman still started and got the most carries for the Ravens. This should continue to happen going forward because Freeman has done well in this role. He had a season-high 20 fantasy points last week. He has double-digit fantasy points four of five games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent, making him a good weekly flex play. He can do well again this week against the Browns, a team that has allowed at least 22 fantasy points to running backs five straight games.
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington. Heinicke had a tough matchup against one of the best defenses in football last week but still managed to have a three-touchdown game. It was an impressive performance. He has three three-touchdown games this season and five games with 24-plus fantasy points. He has become a good spot play for fantasy teams. And a Week 12 game against the Seahawks might be a good spot to play him. Seattle has allowed 285-plus passing yards two straight games.
Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots. Bourne had four more receptions last week, giving him at least four receptions four of five games. He has become a consistent factor in the Patriots passing game. He also has 14-plus fantasy points three of six games. He can help fantasy teams as a No. 3 receiver. Bourne has a matchup for more good things against the Titans this week. Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to receivers.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Raiders/Cowboys, Bills/Saints, Bucs/Colts, Rams/Packers.
Low Scoring Games: Bears/Lions, Falcons/Jaguars.
Bye Weeks: Cardinals, Chiefs.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Panthers traded up in the second round to select Texas running back Jonathon Brooks. Dynasty Analysis: It's a good landing spot for Brooks, who looks like a player who has a skillset of a premier running back in the NFL. He'll need to get healthy and return from a late season ACL tear but the Panthers are likely playing the long game here. With Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders not doing much to impress, it's hard to see Brooks not grabbing the top spot on the depth chart as soon as his knee will cooperate. Dynasty managers are also going to need to exhibit some patience here with Brooks as well but he still looks like a late first round rookie pick.
Dynasty | With the early selection of RB Jonathon Brooks (in a trade up, no less), the Panthers seem to have consolidated their backfield. Dynasty Analysis: Both Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard will have a little more time in the sun as Brooks rehabs his torn ACL and gets back into playing shape. But make no mistake, the move to draft Brooks signals an intention in Carolina to feature him in the running game. Sanders will be in the most peril, considering his cap hit, but both backs could be cap casualties and, in the meantime, will serve as backups to Brooks once he is healthy.
Dynasty | The Colts drafted wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the 52nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Mitchell lasted a little longer than most expected but landed on his feet when he was taken by the Colts with the 52nd overall pick. He'll compete with players like Josh Downs and Alec Pierce for targets behind Michael Pittman. Ultimately, his dynasty value is going to hinge on the health and development of quarterback Anthony Richardson. His fall, along with some uncertainty about his place in the offense is likely going to push him down into round two of most rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The second round selection of WR Adonai Mitchell gives the Colts' franchise QB yet another explosive weapon. Dynasty Analysis: In a drastically shortened rookie campaign, Richardson gave dynasty players a tantalizing glimpse of his playmaking abilities. His obvious strength was in the running game, but after several injuries and an early end to his season, the goal will be to keep him in the pocket and help him get comfortable standing tall and throwing downfield. Adding Mitchell to an already stocked supporting cast of WRs Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, as well as RB Jonathan Taylor, should give Richardson all the weaponry he needs to outperform his QB8 dynasty ranking and join the top three conversation.
Dynasty | Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott was taken in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Washington Commanders. Dynasty Analysis: Sinnott was surprisingly taken in the second round of the NFL Draft by the tight end-needy Washington Commanders. It's a surprising development as most thought Sinnott wasn't going to be taken until day three. The draft capital used combined with the fact he was the sercond tight end taken overall is going to vault Sinnott up rookie draft boards. While he could be taken a little too highly, Washington was a premier draft spot for a tight end and that can't be ignored.
Dynasty | The New York Jets drafted Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley early in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: He should slot in nicely behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams and be allowed to come along rather slowly. Corley is a bit of a project but his ceiling is tantalizing. Aaron Rodgers has been notoriously tough on rookie receivers, so some patience may need to be used here. However, Corley still looks like a pretty solid pick in the late second or early third round of a rookie draft. He's a small school prospect but has some pretty impressive tape out there so he could be a steal in the end.
Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Florida State running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Benson was snapped up with the 66th overall selection. It's a solid landing spot for the former Seminole who will presumably pair with James Conner in a new-look backfield in the desert in the short-term. However, Conner's injury history and age is going to likely pave a quick path to a true starting job for Benson sooner rather than later. While he may not reach his potential for a year or two, Benson looks like a very solid pick right around the round 1/2 turn in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | With the early third round selection of RB Trey Benson, the Cardinals prepare for life after James Conner. Dynasty Analysis: Benson was widely regarded as a top two RB in the rookie class, and could prove to be a steal in the third round. But it isn't the type of draft capital that commands an immediate workload. Dynasty managers can expect a dip in Conner's dynasty value long-term; a dip that was coming for the 28 year-old anyways. But the short term value should get a bump as Conner takes on a full workload with Benson's fresh legs waiting patiently until the wheels fall off for Conner.
Dynasty | The Bengals drafted Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton in the third round of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Burton was a surprise pick of the Bengals at #80 overall. While he's currently buried on the depth chart, there's a chance he can grow into real relevance if Tee Higgins eventually gets moved. Burton is a project but one with a pretty solid landing spot as he's now paired with Joe Burrow. Alabama receivers obviously have a solid track record in the NFL and Burton was once a highly though of prospect. Perhaps we have a diamond in the rough here with a late round rookie pick.
Dynasty | The Los Angeles Rams drafted Michigan running back Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Corum was drafted by the Los Angeles Rams in the third round of the NFL Draft. Never afraid to take a shot on a runner, Sean McVay has struck again, this time with the uber-productive Corum. Unfortunately, the Rams also have a very talented player in Kyren Williams at the top of the depth chart. Corum is going to be difficult to value in rookie drafts this Spring because he could be one injury away from major value or spend a long time on the bench watching Williams. In the end, he's likely going to be a short-yardage player who is a serious thorn in the side of Williams managers. Corum projects as a likely late second or early third rounder in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Pittsburgh Steelers drafted Michigan wide receiver Roman Wilson in round three of the NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Now this is interesting. Somehow the 14th wide receiver taken overall, Wilson still has some tantalizing upside. Pittsburgh has historically done very well with receivers taken in the middle rounds and he fits the mold of a player with upside who could blossom in the right environment. With George Pickens the only real certainty on the depth chart, Wilson makes for a solid "high ceiling and low floor" type of rookie pick in the middle rounds of a rookie draft.
Dynasty | The Green Bay Packers drafted USC running back Marshawn Lloyd with the 88th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Lloyd was taken in the third round by the Green Bay Packers, a bit of a surprise pick considering the fact they added Josh Jacobs this off-season and re-signed AJ Dillon as well. Lloyd is a developmental prospect with a lot of tread on his tires but this wasn't the best landing spot for his dynasty value. His rookie ADP is going to fall a bit post-draft and he looks like a third or fourth round rookie pick as a result.
After plenty of trade rumors swirling around wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk leading up to this year's draft, the San Francisco 49ers have not dealt either of them through the first three rounds. "We didn't entertain any of that today. We're happy with our wide receiver group. Actually, more than happy. We're thrilled with it. And thrilled to add Ricky to it to make it stronger," general manager John Lynch said. The Niners have definitely been listening to trade offers for both wideouts, but apparently they just haven't been able to work anything out. Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal, while Samuel is set to count over $20 million against the salary cap next year. Something's got to give. Now that we're onto Day 3 of the 2024 NFL draft, it's more likely than not that both Aiyuk and Samuel will stick around for the 2024 season.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders have selected Rice University wide receiver Luke McCaffrey with the 100th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The pick marked the end of Round 3 and Day 2 of the draft. McCaffrey is a converted quarterback who transferred from Nebraska to Rice during the middle of his collegiate career. He truly broke out during his final season with the Owls, catching 71 passes for 992 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also rushed for an additional 117 yards on the ground. The brother of 49ers star Christian McCaffrey and son of three-time Super Bowl champion Ed McCaffrey, Luke demonstrated extreme leadership, football IQ, physicality, athleticism, and route running skills at Rice. He excelled in contested catch scenarios and should be a very reliable weapon for the Commanders and new quarterback Jayden Daniels. He figures to enter training camp as Washington's No. 3 wide receiver behind Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.
From RotoBaller
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan with the 92nd overall pick in the NFL draft. McMillan totaled 559 yards on 45 catches with five scores in 11 games last season. He plays mostly from the slot and did have a nagging knee injury that limited his catches considerably compared to 2022, where he caught 79 passes. The 22-year-old does well in changing speeds in a route to put defensive backs on their heels. McMillan joins a veteran-led wide receiver room with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. McMillan should be in contention to serve as the number three option with Trey Palmer, who Tampa selected last season. McMillan should be a popular pick in rookie drafts and could carve out a role in redraft as well.
From RotoBaller
The Green Bay Packers selected USC running back MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th pick in the NFL draft. Lloyd is credited for having great acceleration and the ability to bounce outside the tackles. He averaged over seven yards per carry last season, which showcases his big-play ability. The 23-year-old ran for 820 yards and nine scores last season. Lloyd joins a running back room that just welcomed Josh Jacobs, which will limit his fantasy value early on, but he could grow into a part-time contributor over the course of his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers have selected University of Michigan wide receiver Roman Wilson with the No. 84 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 22-year-old was one of J.J. McCarthy's favorite targets on the national champion Wolverines. He caught 49 passes for 789 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023, showcasing his speed, hands, and route running skills on a national stage. The Steelers have been looking for wide receiver help ever since trading Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers. Wilson could immediately slot into the Steelers' No. 2 wide receiver role alongside George Pickens, giving him appeal in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Cardinals selected University of Illinois tight end Tip Reiman with the No. 82 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He played four years at Illinois, totaling 420 yards and five touchdowns off 41 catches. While the 22-year-old has plenty of positive attributes, he wasn't as productive at the collegiate level as others in his class. With that said, Reiman will have a chance to carve out playing time in Arizona, a team in a transition phase. However, he'll need to compete for snaps with Trey McBride, one of the league's emerging tight ends.
From RotoBaller
The Bengals selected Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton with the No. 80 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The 22-year-old began his collegiate career at Georgia. However, he played at Alabama in the last two seasons. During his time with the Crimson Tide, he totaled 79 catches for 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also averaged 20.5 yards per catch as a senior. It will be tough for anyone to get consistently involved offensively with Ja'Marr Chase and potentially Tee Higgins in the equation. However, If Burton gets snaps, he could flourish catching passes from Joe Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Rams have selected University of Michigan running back Blake Corum with the No. 83 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The national champion is the third running back off the board following Texas' Jonathon Brooks and Florida State's Trey Benson. He totaled 2,905 scrimmage yards and a whopping 47 touchdowns over his last two seasons. He's not a major contributor in the passing game but clearly carves out plenty of work on the ground and near the goal line. Kyren Williams is still Los Angeles' top running back, but Corum should carve out a role and could even have immediate fantasy appeal given his nose for the end zone.
From RotoBaller
