Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 24 9:47am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Mooney should remain hot


This is always one of my favorite “Lineup Prep” columns of the year. It is the Thanksgiving edition. I tell you all the things I’m thankful for with a fantasy spin. Here is to hoping you have a great Thanksgiving!

I’m thankful for in-depth stats. There are so many stats you access now. It is so helpful when it comes to analyzing fantasy football. You can get snap counts, target shares, red zone targets, fantasy defense stats. You name it and you can likely get it. The information for fantasy football users is off the charts this day and age.

I’m thankful for the running quarterback. The advent of the mobile quarterback has changed the landscape of the position, especially in fantasy land. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have such a high weekly floor because of their ability to make plays with their legs. It makes targeting them come draft day the smart move for fantasy teams.

I’m thankful for the parity in the NFL. This league has been so crazy this year, seeing so many teams play erratic football. You just never know what you are going to see any given week. This is causing fantasy leagues to be a lot more crazy as well, having erratic point totals from week to week. I think this makes for more excitement in fantasy leagues, which is never a bad thing.

I’m thankful for rookies. Every year there are a handful of exciting, young players that take the fantasy world by storm. This year is no different with Najee Harris and Ja’Marr Chase leading the way. You never know how a rookie will pan out, but when you hit, it sure is exciting. These guys can be fantasy difference makers.

I’m thankful for players like Deebo Samuel. There are players every year that are picked in the middle or so rounds of drafts that end up being fantasy superstars. This is exactly what has happened to Samuel, who is second overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Preseason rankings don’t always go as planned, so seeing a player ranked lower really outperform their draft spot is exciting. Hopefully, you hit on a few of these guys in your league this year.

I’m thankful for the easy access of information these days. It is so much easier than when I first started in the industry. My job used to be scouring the local newspapers, reading all the practice reports from the previous day. These days all you have to do is get on Twitter or search the internet for the latest practice news. The stuff is reported as it happens. This makes it so much easier for fantasy owners, having so much more information at their fingertips.

I’m thankful for the craziness at the tight end position. I know it might drive some crazy but I think it makes for some great strategy, especially come draft day. The position is just so top heavy. Do you use an early pick on Travis Kelce or Darren Waller? Or do you wait and pick two players like Noah Fant and Jared Cook to platoon on a weekly basis? It would be a lot easier if there are 10 surefire fantasy tight ends, but no one ever said fantasy football was easy, right?

I’m thankful for the NFL RedZone channel. Is there a better way to watch football as a fantasy football fan? I don’t think so. I mean you get to see all the scores and all the action when teams are close to scoring. It is a fascinating way to watch the games. And it makes for some real excitement as you are trying to see what you are doing in your fantasy games. The highs and lows come real quick when watching the NFL RedZone. 

Lastly, I’m thankful for all of our users. We truly have the best users in the fantasy world that are on RealTime Fantasy Sports. It is so great to be a part of. It truly feels like a community on our site and I’m proud to be just a small part of that. So I want to thank all of you out there for helping make this place the best to play fantasy sports.

News and Notes: The Texans released running back Phillip Lindsay on Tuesday. Lindsay saw his playing time dip in recent weeks, so this move isn’t a complete surprise. Rex Burkhead and David Johnson should handle most of the running back duties going forward. . . . .The Bears reportedly will fire head coach Matt Nagy after their Week 12 game. . . . .The Giants fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett on Tuesday. You could see this coming with the way the offense had played recently. Tight end’s coach Freddie Kitchens will take over the offensive coordinator position going forward for the Giants. . . . .The Titans released Adrian Peterson on Tuesday. This might be the end of the line for Peterson, who did little with his chances in Tennessee.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk has finally become a factor in the 49ers offense once again. He had his best game of the season last week, catching seven passes for 85 yards and a touchdown. He has scores two of three games and double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He is finally getting more consistent targets and producing with those chances. He should keep up his hot play this week against the Vikings, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos. You can be frustrated all you want about rookie Javonte Williams not playing more, but at this point, it doesn’t looking like things are going to change in the backfield. Gordon is going to be a big part of the offense every week. And as long as he is on the field, he has fantasy value. Gordon has touchdowns four straight games and double-digit fantasy points five straight. He seems setup for at least another score this week against the Chargers, a team that is dead last against the run and has allowed 13-rushing touchdowns.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is eighth in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He has taken over as the No. 1 receiver in Chicago and is playing great in that role. He had his second 100-yard game of the season last week and has touchdowns two straight. He had a season-high 16 targets last week. Mooney has moved into must start territory for fantasy teams, especially this week against the Lions. Detroit has allowed more than 30 points in a game four times this season.

James Robinson, RB, Jaguars. Robinson didn’t have a great game last week but was still able to find the end zone. He has scores two straight games and seems to be getting a little healthier every week. He seems ready to have one of his big performances. And a matchup this week against the Falcons gives him a good chance for that huge game. Atlanta is a mess defensively and allow the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. The Falcons allow 123.3-rushing yards per game and have given up 10-rushing touchdowns.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys. Schultz had his best game in a few weeks in Week 11, having six receptions for 53 yards on eight targets. All the injuries at receiver for the Cowboys opens the door for Schultz to get more targets. It should be more of the same this week for Schultz against the Raiders. Las Vegas also struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

COLD PLAYS 

Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins. Gaskin has been getting his most work of the season lately, having a season high 23 carries last week. He has 20 or more carries two of three games. The Dolphins have made it a point to get him more involved in the offense. But even with that said, his producing hasn’t been great. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards three of four games. He might get a lot of work again this week but that might not lead to much production once again. Gaskin plays the Panthers, a team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Kenny Golladay, WR, Giants. Golladay has been a big disappointment much of the season. He caught just a pass for 12 yards on two targets last week. He has three receptions for 40 yards on four targets his last two games. He has a few big games this year but you can’t bank on that right now with his recent play and the struggles of the Giants offense. Plus, he has a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, a team that has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans. Tannehill had a season high 52 pass attempts last week but that didn’t lead to al to of fantasy production. He scored just a touchdown and finished with fewer than 17 fantasy points. He has fewer than 17 points two of three games. The loss of Derrick Henry has really impacted the entire offense, including the passing game. Tannehill just hasn’t looked like the same quarterback from the past few years. Plus, he is dealing with a lot of injuries at the receiver spot, which isn’t helping. He gets the Patriots this week, a team that allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. If you have better options, go with them.

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots. The emergence of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson is a concern for Harris owners. Harris still had double-digit carries his last time out but that total was his lowest since Week 4. We aren’t giving up on Harris just yet but he might be a little more hit or miss going forward, especially against teams with good run defenses. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Titans. Tennessee is a mess against the pass but do well against the run, allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Tennessee is fourth overall against the rush, allowing just 97.2-rushing yards per game.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos. Sutton just signed a big contract extension this week, but that doesn’t mean you just plug him into your fantasy lineup. He has really struggled lately, having six or fewer fantasy points three straight games. He has 40 or fewer yards all three of those games. His production has really been up and down all year, especially with Jerry Jeudy is healthy and in the lineup. Things won’t be much easier for him this week against the Chargers, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers. 

SLEEPERS

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. Garoppolo is playing his best football right now. He has multiple touchdowns three straight games and has just one interception during that stretch. He also has 300-yard games two of four games. Garoppolo can have another good showing this week against the Vikings. Minnesota allows the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 21st overall against the pass. He is a good streaming play for Week 12.

Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers. Anderson is having a really disappointing season, but starting to show a few signs of life. And the addition of Cam Newton to the starting lineup should be a good thing for Anderson. He has six targets each of his last two games and has nine receptions on those 12 targets. He is finally getting a little more work and helping fantasy teams. He might be worth a shot this week against the Dolphins, a team that has allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers this season.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Ravens. Latavius Murray returned to the lineup last week, but Freeman still started and got the most carries for the Ravens. This should continue to happen going forward because Freeman has done well in this role. He had a season-high 20 fantasy points last week. He has double-digit fantasy points four of five games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent, making him a good weekly flex play. He can do well again this week against the Browns, a team that has allowed at least 22 fantasy points to running backs five straight games.

Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington. Heinicke had a tough matchup against one of the best defenses in football last week but still managed to have a three-touchdown game. It was an impressive performance. He has three three-touchdown games this season and five games with 24-plus fantasy points. He has become a good spot play for fantasy teams. And a Week 12 game against the Seahawks might be a good spot to play him. Seattle has allowed 285-plus passing yards two straight games.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots. Bourne had four more receptions last week, giving him at least four receptions four of five games. He has become a consistent factor in the Patriots passing game. He also has 14-plus fantasy points three of six games. He can help fantasy teams as a No. 3 receiver. Bourne has a matchup for more good things against the Titans this week. Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Raiders/Cowboys, Bills/Saints, Bucs/Colts, Rams/Packers.

Low Scoring Games: Bears/Lions, Falcons/Jaguars.

Bye Weeks: Cardinals, Chiefs.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

First TFC Review

Player Notes
Quinyon Mitchell Apr 25 10:50pm CT
Quinyon Mitchell

The Philadelphia Eagles selected Toledo defensive back Quinyon Mitchell with the 22nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. If there were concerns regarding the talent level that he played against while at Toledo that can be put to rest. The 22-year-old had an outstanding Senior Bowl and had 32 pass breakups over the past two seasons, which led the nation. Mitchell joins a depleted Eagles defense, which allowed the third most points in 2023.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott Apr 25 10:50pm CT
Dak Prescott

The Dallas Cowboys selected Oklahoma offensive tackle Tyler Guyton with the 29th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night after they traded down with the Detroit Lions. Guyton is an ascending tackle prospect that could develop into a high-level pass protector of quarterback Dak Prescott with the proper coaching. He plays with great leverage and has great physical traits at 6-foot-8, 322 pounds with 34 1/8-inch arms. There have been injury concerns with the 22-year-old, though, and it remains to be seen if he can develop into a starting-caliber left or right tackle in the NFL. Guyton doesn't have a lot of experience at the tackle position, but he could be competing for Dallas' starting left-tackle job right away in 2024 to replace Tyron Smith.

From RotoBaller

Nate Wiggins Apr 25 10:50pm CT
Nate Wiggins

The Baltimore Ravens selected Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins with the 30th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. Wiggins is tall, long and fast with rare recovery speed at the cornerback position. "He has better physical talent than Devon Witherspoon, but he doesn't have that same level of dog in him. That's probably the biggest difference right now. I think Wiggins is the better prospect, though," according to an NFC national scout. If Wiggins can play with more decisiveness, he could very well become a Pro Bowler at the next level. The 20-year-old isn't very big (6-foot-1, 173 pounds), though, and he could have trouble wrapping up and stopping the run. Wiggins needs to get bigger and stronger, but early on, his elite speed will cover up some of his weaknesses.

From RotoBaller

BJ Ojulari Apr 25 10:40pm CT
BJ Ojulari

The Arizona Cardinals selected Missouri defensive end Darius Robinson with the 27th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. Robinson was a late bloomer for the Tigers in college and sometimes disappeared from games, but in the end, the pass-rusher was a first-team All-SEC performer as a fifth-year senior in 2023 after recording 8.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in 2023. Robinson weighed in at 285 pounds and has long arms and plenty of power to push his way to opposing quarterbacks. He's also serviceable in the run game and will compete for plenty of playing time right away in the desert in 2024 next to Zaven Collins and BJ Ojulari. Robinson is powerful but is going to need to develop his repertoire to have success in the NFL.

From RotoBaller

Xavier Worthy Apr 25 10:40pm CT
Xavier Worthy

The Kansas City Chiefs traded up to the No. 28 overall pick with the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night to select Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Worthy posted the fastest recorded 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine in February and doesn't turn 21 years old until Saturday. He's obviously a burner at the receiver position, but he's also tough and had the production to back it with the Longhorns (over 1,000 yards receiving in 2023). The concern with Worthy is his slight frame at 5-foot-11, 165 pounds. Worthy isn't just a pass-catcher, as he can also factor in for the Chiefs as a kick returner on special teams. It remains to be seen exactly how KC will use Worthy on offense in his rookie season, but he'll certainly help with the team's depth at the position with Rashee Rice expected to be handed a multi-game suspension in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Laiatu Latu Apr 25 10:30pm CT
Laiatu Latu

With the No. 15 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Colts selected UCLA defensive end Laiatu Latu. There was talk he would go earlier in the night. However, concerns surrounding his neck may have caused him to slide to the middle of the first round. But the Colts took a chance and could benefit by taking a player who totaled 34 sacks in two seasons with the Bruins. At 6'5'', 265 lbs., he may make an impact for IDP managers right out of the gate.

From RotoBaller

Dallas Turner Apr 25 10:30pm CT
Dallas Turner

The Minnesota Vikings traded up to the 17th spot with Jacksonville to select Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. Turner had an outstanding combine and totaled ten sacks last season. He can disrupt the opponent's run game with a great reaction time. The 21-year-old can also drop into coverage when needed. The Vikings were in the middle of the pack with 43 total sacks, and Turner should help them significantly.

From RotoBaller

Jordan Love Apr 25 10:30pm CT
Jordan Love

The Green Bay Packers selected offensive tackle Jordan Morgan from Arizona with the 25th overall selection in the 2024 NFL draft. Morgan started all 37 games at left tackle. He could move to guard if necessary but does possess the skills to make a smooth transition. The Packers added former Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs to improve on their 1,905 total rushing yards last season. Adding Morgan will hopefully provide a boost to those numbers and protect Jordan Love's blind side.

From RotoBaller

Amik Robertson Apr 25 10:10pm CT
Amik Robertson

The Detroit Lions traded up to the number 24 spot with the Dallas Cowboys to bolster their secondary with Alabama defensive back Terrion Arnold. Arnold intercepted five passes last season and yet he is not afraid to defend the run and initiate contact. The Lions were near the bottom of the pack with 375 total points allowed and total passing yards allowed with 3,846. The Lions saw this need and already began to address it with the free-agent acquisition of Amik Robertson from Las Vegas and the selection of Arnold will improve on the work done in the offseason.

From RotoBaller

Brian Thomas Jr. Apr 25 10:00pm CT
Brian Thomas Jr.

The Jacksonville Jaguars wasted no time in replacing Calvin Ridley by selecting LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The former Tiger played alongside fellow standout Malik Nabers, but do not overlook his talent. The 21-year-old led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023 and totaled 1,177 receiving yards. Thomas Jr. will be a popular pick in both dynasty and redraft as he should slot in as the number two wide-out behind Christian Kirk and should be a solid option for Trevor Lawrence.

From RotoBaller

Najee Harris Apr 25 9:40pm CT
Najee Harris

The Pittsburgh Steelers selected offensive tackle Troy Fautanu with the 20th overall selection of the NFL draft. Fautanu is six feet four inches tall and has long arms, which gives him good balance in pass protection. The 23-year-old started 31 games for Washington, with 29 of them at left tackle and two at left guard. Russel Wilson will get some much-needed blindside protection with this selection. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will also benefit from having Fautanu leading the way for them.

From RotoBaller

Joe Burrow Apr 25 9:30pm CT
Joe Burrow

The Cincinnati Bengals selected offensive tackle Amarius Mims with the 18th overall pick. Mims, a former Georgia Bulldog, started only eight games at right tackle but was dominant and has quickness and strength to move defenders off the ball. The Bengals allowed 50 total sacks last season, which resulted in their franchise quarterback missing important games down the stretch. Mims will be part of the plan to fix a weakness and protect Joe Burrow.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Donald Apr 25 9:30pm CT
Aaron Donald

The Los Angeles Rams are using their first first-round selection in eight years to select defensive end Jared Verse from Florida State. The 23-year-old is one of the most talented edge rushers in the class. He has a great first step and excellent closing speed to get off of blocks. Verse had nine total sacks last season and will be called upon to help the Rams overcome the loss of the now-retired Aaron Donald.

From RotoBaller

Jarran Reed Apr 25 9:10pm CT
Jarran Reed

The Seattle Seahawks selected Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy with the 16th overall pick on Thursday evening. Murphy is credited with being an excellent run defender who can help against strong rushing attacks in the division. The Longhorn is effective when double-teamed and will join Jarran Reed and Jonathan Hankins on the interior.

From RotoBaller

Derek Carr Apr 25 9:00pm CT
Derek Carr

With the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Saints selected Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga. The 22-year-old had a lengthy college career with the Beavers. While he got off to a slow start, he ended his final season by being named an All-American. New Orleans has plenty of areas that need to be addressed, but the line was arguably the team's biggest weakness. Fuaga has a chance to start right away and should help keep Derek Carr vertical more often than he was during the 2023-24 campaign.

From RotoBaller

Bo Nix Apr 25 8:50pm CT
Bo Nix

With the No. 12 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Broncos selected Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. The 24-year-old had a lengthy collegiate career, playing at Auburn before ending his career with the Ducks. He appeared in 61 games combined for both teams, throwing for 15,352 yards, 108 touchdowns, and 26 picks. He also found the end zone 38 times using his legs. With Denver recently acquiring Zach Wilson, Nix may sit to begin the 2024-25 campaign. However, no matter when he gets on the field, the Broncos don't have the pieces needed to make him a reliable fantasy quarterback.

From RotoBaller

Brock Bowers Apr 25 8:50pm CT
Brock Bowers

With the No. 13 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Raiders selected Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. There was talk the Jets would bring him to New York. However, the team bolstered their offensive line, so the 21-year-old will now head to Las Vegas. The Raiders are getting arguably the top tight end available, considering he amassed 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns off 175 catches in 40 collegiate games. Bowers also added five touchdowns on the ground. Nonetheless, he'll have a chance to make an immediate impact as a Raider, although concerns at the quarterback position may limit his fantasy upside.

From RotoBaller

J.J. McCarthy Apr 25 8:40pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings are trading with the New York Jets from the No. 11 to the No. 10 spot in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Vikings get a 2024 first-round (No. 10) selection and a 2024 sixth-round pick, while the Jets receive a 2024 first-round pick (No. 11), 2024 fourth-round, and 2024 fifth-round pick. With the Vikings unable to deal with the New England Patriots to take Drake Maye, Minnesota selected Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Jets ended up taking Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Apr 25 8:40pm CT
Aaron Rodgers

After swapping picks with the Vikings, the Jets selected offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu with the No. 11 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old had a potent collegiate career with Penn State and was named an All-American in 2023. While there were rumblings the Jets would draft a tight end, the team ultimately decided to protect Aaron Rodgers, who will be entering the 2024-25 campaign coming off a season-ending Achilles injury.

From RotoBaller

J.J. McCarthy Apr 25 8:30pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings traded up one spot from 11th to 10th with the New York Jets in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night to select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings wanted McCarthy all along and ended up not needing to trade into the top five to get their next franchise signal-caller. McCarthy won a national championship with the Wolverines last year but wasn't asked to do a lot with a strong running back behind him. He ran a pro-style offense in college, which should give him a high floor at the next level, and he'll be set up well for future success in Minnesota with a great one-two punch in receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The talent is there with McCarthy, but he also didn't have the big sample size that the other big-name QB prospects in this draft did. McCarthy won't necessarily start in his rookie year in 2024 with Sam Darnold also in town.

From RotoBaller