RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

Sun Nov 27 10:02am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

No teams will be on a bye for Week 12, which helps offset additional games being played Thursday. Let’s dig into the teams that will take the field for the weekend slate and highlight some players to consider for your DFS lineups, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, LAC at ARI ($7,000): Herbert has dealt with a lot of injuries at wide receiver this season. He began the season by throwing at least two touchdown passes in three of his first four games. Since then, he has thrown at least two touchdowns in just two of six games. However, Keenen Allen is back, and he immediately made an impact with five receptions for 94 yards last week. The Cardinals are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed in the league, so this has the makings of being one of Herbert’s finer performances.

Geno Smith, SEA vs. LV ($6,000): Smith has already set a new career best with his 17 touchdown passes this season. He has at least two touchdown passes in eight of 10 games. This is a great matchup for him against the Raiders, who have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns (17) in the league.

Player to Avoid

Aaron Rodgers, GB at PHI ($5,800): The good news with regards to Rodgers is that he has thrown at least two touchdown passes in a game eight times this season. The bad news is that he isn’t racking up many passing yards, throwing for fewer than 230 yards in four of the last five games. The Eagles have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns all season, so if Rodgers can’t produce many scores in this game, his overall stat might be ugly.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, LV at SEA ($7,700): Jacobs was busy in a win over the Broncos last week, rushing 24 times for 109 yards. He also caught three of four targets for an additional 51 yards. He already has more rushing yards through 10 games this season (930) than he had over 15 games last season (872). The key is, he has been given at least 20 carries in five of the last seven games. Another juicy stat line could be coming versus a Seahawks team that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the league.

Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA vs. HOU ($5,900): The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns in the league. Deploying running backs against them on a weekly basis in DFS has been a sound strategy. It’s not ideal that Wilson has splits carries with Raheem Mostert, but he had 17 carries against the Browns in Week 10, compared to just eight carries for Mostert.

Player to Avoid

Alvin Kamara, NO at SF ($7,300): The 49ers have a great defense. They have been particularly tough against running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. As if this matchup wasn’t discouraging enough, Kamara only has three total touchdowns this season, each of which came in Week 8 against the Raiders.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf, SEA vs. LV ($6,500): For those who decide to roll with Smith at quarterback, stacking him with Metcalf is a viable strategy. As previously mentioned, the Raiders have allowed a lot of touchdowns through the air. Metcalf has four receiving touchdowns this season and has been targeted inside the red zone at least one time in each of the last six games.

Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. ATL ($5,800): McLaurin has been more productive since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. With Carson Wentz at the helm for the first six games of the season, McLaurin caught 22 passes for 367 yards and one touchdown. Over five games with Heinicke, he has 28 receptions for 425 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, potentially setting up McLaurin for another valuable stat line.

Player to Avoid

Allen Lazard, GB at PHI ($5,800): The Packers have certainly been trying to get Lazard involved, throwing him 25 targets over the last three games. The problem is, he only posted a modest 12 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have allowed just six touchdown receptions to wide receivers, so Lazard enters this matchup with limited upside.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAR ($7,700): With injuries piling up at wide receiver, the Chiefs relied on their star tight end to dispatch the Chargers last week. He was targeted 10 times, finishing with six receptions, 115 yards and three touchdowns. He has recorded at least six receptions and 81 receiving yards in five straight games and has the highest floor of any tight end in the league. 

Foster Moreau, LV at SEA ($3,400): The Seahawks have been torched by tight ends this season, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight ends are averaging 14.9 yards per reception against them, and have caught five touchdown passes. Moreau is averaging 12.0 yards per reception this season, leaving him with a favorable chance to exploit this matchup.

Player to Avoid

Mark Andrews, BAL at JAX ($6,500): This is more about balancing your budget than anything else. With all of the injuries at tight end, it makes sense to either pay up for one of the top-tier options, or just punt this position with a player who has a really cheap salary. For those who don’t want to punt it, Kelce is a safer option than Andrews, who will be playing in his second game since dealing with a shoulder and a knee injury. 

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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Player Notes
Jacob Phillips Apr 22 11:10pm CT
Jacob Phillips

The Houston Texans signed former Cleveland Browns free-agent linebacker Jacob Phillips (pectoral) to an undisclosed one-year deal on Monday, according to a source. Phillips was drafted in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft out of LSU and was with the Browns for his first four NFL seasons. However, the 25-year-old spent all of last year on Injured Reserve due to a torn pectoral muscle. It was the second straight year that he ended the season on Injured Reserve due to a pectoral injury, and Phillips has a total of 88 tackles (57 solo), three sacks, five tackles for loss and five passes defended in his three years played in the league in 20 games (eight starts). Now that Phillips appears to be past his latest pectoral injury, he'll be fighting for a roster spot out of training camp in Houston this summer.

From RotoBaller

DeAndre Hopkins Apr 22 11:00pm CT
DeAndre Hopkins

There remains no timetable for the return of Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Cole Holcomb (knee) after he was injured in Week 9 when chasing down Tennessee Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins when teammate Keanu Neal collided with him. "I can tell you Cole [Holcomb's] working extremely hard to get back," general manager Omar Khan said.. "I don't really have much to add on the timeline. We've discussed this, it was a major injury but he is working hard and I'm optimistic about all the effort he's going to put into getting back on the field." The 27-year-old required season-ending surgery, and many thought it might put an end to his career. However, the former fifth-round pick of the Washington Commanders in 2019 out of North Carolina is working his way back and is hoping to play in 2024 after recording 442 tackles (270 solo) and 4.5 sacks in his first five NFL seasons over 58 games (56 starts).

From RotoBaller

Zach Wilson Apr 22 5:13pm CT
Zach Wilson

Dynasty | Quarterback Zach Wilson has been traded to Denver along with a seventh round pick in exchange for a sixth round pick. Dynasty Analysis: The Jets and Broncos will reportedly split the $5.5 million Wilson is due this season. The former #2 overall pick is acquired for what amounts to a 53 spot draft slot-swap in the final rounds of this year's draft. It's a precipitous fall for a player who was once thought of as the savior of the franchise in New York. Denver is an interesting landing spot on paper and reports indicate they've been trying to get Wilson for weeks. The Broncos sit at #12 overall in the draft and that likely won't be high enough for Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or even JJ McCarthy. If they stand pat and can't secure a quarterback, the room will include Wilson, Ben DiNucci and Jarrett Stidham. Could they really go into a season like this? At this point, Wilson has a little life in his dynasty value but that's subject to change later this week.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Matt Ryan Apr 22 5:13pm CT
Matt Ryan

Dynasty | Former Falcons and Colts quarterback Matt Ryan is retiring from the NFL. Dynasty Analysis: Ryan spent 14 of his 15 seasons with the Falcons and was extremely effective in his time there, both in reality and fantasy. Ryan had ten straight years with at least 4,000 passing yards and could be penciled in for between 25 and 35 touchdown passes every season. A likely future Hall of Famer, Ryan ended his season with a forgettable year in Indianapolis but will be remembered as being a solid and consistent QB1 for more than a decade. He can be safely dropped from dynasty rosters if he somehow wasn't already.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Ladd McConkey Apr 22 4:00pm CT
Ladd McConkey

University of Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey has seemingly been rising up draft boards since his impressive showing at the 2024 NFL Combine, and he is now favored to be a first-round pick, according to DraftKings Sportsbook's odds. DraftKings gives the 22-year-old -105 odds to be one of the first 32 players off the board. In three seasons with the Bulldogs, the speedster collected 119 receptions for 1,687 yards and 14 touchdowns and rushed 13 times for 216 yards and four scores. He also averaged 13.3 yards per punt return on 21 attempts. He's a dynamic and versatile weapon with real route-running juice, so WR-needy teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills could be interested in pushing the draft button on him late in the first round on Thursday.

From RotoBaller

Brandon Aiyuk Apr 22 3:40pm CT
Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has not formally requested a trade from the organization, but he is still in the thick of trade rumors this offseason. When asked whether or not the team has received calls regarding a trade for Aiyuk, General Manager John Lynch said "Sure. We receive calls for a lot of players." That's a vague answer and does not give fantasy managers clarity on the situation, but it's worth noting teams have reached out. Aiyuk posted a career-high 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns last season despite ranking 28th in total targets (125). With Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner either on or set to receive expensive contracts, it will be a tough road to locking up Aiyuk to a long-term deal. If the team does decide to trade him, a first-round pick should be coming in return. Although Lynch has stated they would like to keep the 26-year-old, it wouldn't be shocking if he's dealt on draft night.

From RotoBaller

Mitchell Wilcox Apr 22 3:40pm CT
Mitchell Wilcox

The New England Patriots signed free-agent tight end Mitchell Wilcox on Monday, the team announced on X. Originally undrafted out of the 2020 class, Wilcox has spent the last four years with the Cincinnati Bengals. In 48 career games, the South Florida product has hauled in 29 of his 35 targets for 211 yards and one touchdown. The Patriots re-signed Hunter Henry to a three-year, $27 million deal this offseason, so the TE1 role is occupied in Foxborough. Wilcox could have the chance to compete with Austin Hooper for the TE2 job, but Hooper is likely the favorite to back up Henry. That said, Wilcox can be ignored in fantasy football.

From RotoBaller

Dak Prescott Apr 22 3:20pm CT
Dak Prescott

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is entering the final year of his deal in 2024, and he and the organization have not begun contract negotiations. The former fourth-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft threw for a career-high 36 touchdowns in 2023, but Dallas suffered another disappointing playoff defeat in the NFC Divisional Round. On his contract situation, Prescott said "I'm not trying to be the highest paid necessarily. We'll wait until the negotiations begin and obviously want to put this team in the best situation." If the 30-year-old is willing to take a home team discount, it could help his chances of reaching a new deal. Star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and edge rusher Micah Parson will be up for new deals soon, meaning the Cowboys have a lot to figure out over the next few offseasons.

From RotoBaller

Zach Wilson Apr 22 1:50pm CT
Zach Wilson

The Denver Broncos are acquiring former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson from the New York Jets on Monday, according to sources. The Broncos are expected to send a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Jets for Wilson and a 2024 seventh-round selection, with the teams dividing his guaranteed camp roster bonus. The Broncos released Russell Wilson this offseason and were heading into this week's NFL draft with Jarrett Stidham as their starter under center in 2024. Wilson now has a much better shot at playing time with a change of scenery in 2024 after being benched in his final season with the Jets, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll beat out Stidham in training camp. The move to acquire Wilson also won't preclude the Broncos from selecting a QB in this year's draft, possibly as early as the first round.

From RotoBaller

Matt Ryan Apr 22 1:40pm CT
Matt Ryan

Quarterback Matt Ryan officially announced his retirement from professional football on Monday as a member of the Atlanta Falcons, the team that drafted him third overall in 2008 out of Boston College. Ryan spent 14 of his 15 NFL seasons in Atlanta, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2008 and an MVP award in 2016. In his lone trip to the Super Bowl in the same season he won his MVP award, the Falcons blew a 28-3 lead at halftime to lose to the New England Patriots. He made just 12 starts for the Indianapolis Colts in 2022 and threw for 3,057 yards, 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The 38-year-old four-time Pro Bowler ends his career as Atlanta's all-time leader in passing yards (59,735) and passing touchdowns (367). Ryan ranks seventh all-time in passing yards (62,792) and ninth in TD passes (381) as a future Hall of Famer.

From RotoBaller

Mac Jones Apr 22 1:30pm CT
Mac Jones

The New England Patriots are listening and taking calls from teams looking to move up to the No. 3 overall pick in the first round of Thursday's NFL draft. General manager Eliot Wolf is running point on the team's draft, but sources are saying president Jonathan Kraft is heavily involved in the decision-making process. Most people think the Patriots will ultimately stay at No. 3 and take a quarterback of the future after moving on from Mac Jones this offseason. Teams like the Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants and Denver Broncos would be the most likely to trade up to No. 3 to take a QB. If the Patriots stay put and select third overall, whatever rookie signal-caller they take would be competing with veteran Jacoby Brissett for the starting gig under center this fall.

From RotoBaller

Sam Hubbard Apr 22 1:30pm CT
Sam Hubbard

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard (ankle) was held out of two games in 2023 due to a right-ankle injury that required significant offseason surgery. Hubbard said that he had a complete deltoid reconstruction in his ankle and tight-rope procedure to fix his ankle. He said his ankle bothered him as early as training camp, and it became more severe later in the year. Through the first nine weeks of 2023, Hubbard ranked 28th in the NFL in pass-rush win rate as an edge rusher. But when he returned to the field in Week 12 until the end of the season, he ranked 49th out of 54 players in that category. The good news is that the 28-year-old says he'll be ready for training camp this summer. However, it's fair to wonder about how effective he'll be rushing the passer in 2024 after coming off a pretty significant surgery.

From RotoBaller

Levi Wallace Apr 22 1:30pm CT
Levi Wallace

Free-agent cornerback Levi Wallace signed an undisclosed deal with the Denver Broncos on Monday, according to a source. Wallace had six interceptions and 24 passes defended over the last two seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He'll give the Broncos some added secondary depth this week just ahead of the start of this year's NFL draft on Thursday evening. The 28-year-old entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Alabama in 2018 with the Buffalo Bills, and he spent the first four seasons of his career in Buffalo before playing for the Steelers the last two years. In his six seasons combined, Wallace has 305 tackles (236 solo), seven tackles for loss, 12 interceptions, 54 passes defended and one fumble recovery in 83 games (70 starts).

From RotoBaller

Rashee Rice Apr 22 1:20pm CT
Rashee Rice

ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice is expected to be disciplined by the NFL, resulting in at least a multi-game suspension. Rice is currently facing eight charges after he and another driver of a speeding car allegedly caused a crash involving a half-dozen vehicles in Dallas last month. He turned himself into police last week before being released on bond. The looming suspension for Rice could push the Chiefs, who own the No. 32 pick in this week's NFL draft, to keep a close eye on receivers in the draft. KC would have been expected to look for receiver help even before Rice's off-field troubles. They had the most drops in the league (38) in 2023. Rice was quarterback Patrick Mahomes' favorite target outside of tight end Travis Kelce last year, but his fantasy stock is going to take a hit going into 2024 with a suspension looming.

From RotoBaller

Darren Waller Apr 22 7:33am CT
Darren Waller

Dynasty | Giants tight end Darren Waller is still mulling retirement. Dynasty Analysis: Waller has dealt with a lot of injuries over his career and it seems as if he's really considering calling it quits. The Giants are reportedly giving him a lot of time to consider his options and not forcing a decision, though it's quite certain they'd like to know prior to next week's NFL Draft as his loss could actually make Brock Bowers a consideration with their pick in the top ten. Regardless, it looks like Waller is certainly towards the end of his career and dynasty managers need to start making plans to be without him in the near future, possibly as soon as this year.

Michael Pratt Apr 21 10:10pm CT
Michael Pratt

ESPN New York's Rich Cimini writes that it sounds as if New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas is serious about adding a quarterback on Day 3 of this year's NFL draft, saying he'd love to create "a quarterback factory" like the Green Bay Packers did in the 1990s. The dream is to find a late-round gem, and the Jets hold the final pick in the draft (No. 257 overall). The Jets hosted Tulane's Michael Pratt, Florida State's Jordan Travis and Samford's Michael Hiers, with each QB being a potential Day 3 pick. Kentucky's Devin Leary and Tennessee's Joe Milton III could also be candidates. Douglas hasn't had much luck in his career drafting quarterbacks, either, so it's surely something he'd like to change.

From RotoBaller

Brock Bowers Apr 21 10:00pm CT
Brock Bowers

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is the odds-on favorite to be taken by the New York Jets with the 10th overall pick in the NFL draft on Thursday night, according to ESPN draft experts. If that happens, it would be the first time in 16 seasons that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been gifted a first-round pick at receiver or tight end. General manager Joe Douglas referred to Bowers as a "Swiss Army knife." The Jets are also interested in offensive tackles -- Notre Dame's Joe Alt, Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga and Washington's Troy Fautanu are thought to be their top preferences -- but they could take a receiver in the unlikely event one of the top three falls to 10th overall. If the Jets do take Bowers, he could have immediate fantasy value in his rookie year as long as Rodgers stays healthy.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Apr 21 9:50pm CT
Drake Maye

ESPN New York's Jordan Ranaan says there's little doubt the New York Giants want to add a quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft. The Giants have had almost all of the top QBs in this year's class in for visits and either had private workouts or the team's most important decision-makers attended their pro days. Multiple general managers think QBs will be taken with each of the top four picks. The Giants have the No. 6 pick. It would be costly for the G-Men to jump into the top five, especially since the thought in league circles is that the Vikings are eyeing a trade up. There is a strong belief by some in the league that North Carolina QB Drake Maye is the Giants' guy. The physical talent is there with Maye, but he's also going to be more of a project than the other top QB options in this year's draft. Sitting a year behind Daniel Jones would be ideal.

From RotoBaller

Mitchell Wilcox Apr 21 9:40pm CT
Mitchell Wilcox

The New England Patriots quietly brought in free-agent tight ends Brycen Hopkins, Sean McKeon and Mitchell Wilcox in for workouts late last week, which could reflect on their desire to add another layer to the tight end depth chart of Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and La'Michael Pettway. Hopkins has only 13 receptions on 19 targets for 196 yards and no touchdowns in his four NFL seasons with the Los Angeles Rams. McKeon ended the 2023 season on Injured Reserve due to an ankle injury and has only six catches on 11 targets for 38 yards and one touchdown in his four NFL seasons with the Dallas Cowboys. Wilcox has 29 catches on 35 targets for 211 yards and one touchdowns in his three years with the Cincinnati Bengals.

From RotoBaller

Ricky Pearsall Apr 21 9:30pm CT
Ricky Pearsall

New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf said he doesn't think the team currently has a wide receiver that "can beat the backside coverage every single time." The Patriots are most likely to draft their quarterback of the future with the No. 3 overall pick, but they could pair him with a receiver with their next pick at No. 34 overall. ESPN's Field Yates believes South Carolina's Xavier Legette, Florida State's Keon Coleman or Florida's Ricky Pearsall could all be good fits. Legette caught 71 passes for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns last year and "has some of the best run-after-catch skills in the class," according to Yates. Coleman's size (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) makes him a top red-zone performer. Pearsall caught 65 passes for 965 yards and four touchdowns in 2023.

From RotoBaller