Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 23 9:32am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Tua is setup for another big week


Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. And my Thanksgiving Lineup Prep is my favorite column to write. I like to list all the things I’m thankful for fantasy wise. It is a fun column to write and I’m excited to get it started. So without further ado, here we go. . .  .

I am thankful for rebound seasons. I have tons of stock in Saquon Barkley this year and thrilled to see him running like the Saquon of old. Sure, it was a little risk to put a ton of stock in him to get it going again, but sometimes you have to take some risks if you hope to hit it big. And right now, all those Barkley owners are feeling pretty good about taking him come draft day.

I am thankful for different draft strategies working for fantasy owners. There isn’t a set strategy that works every time come draft day, which I think makes this game that much more fun to play. You can use all different strategies and still have success. I think this year is a great example of this. The running back spot has been really frustrating this year, but the ones that have played well have played really well. So if you got a Austin Ekeler or Barkley, you are probably having a good season. But the teams that avoided running back early come draft day probably are having plenty of success as well with Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson having huge seasons. So going receiver early has worked as well, especially if you were able to nab a guy like Dameon Pierce or Josh Jacobs later in your drafts. And those owners that took Travis Kelce in the first or second round have enjoyed plenty of success as well as he is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the tight ends this year. So as you can see, all sorts of different strategies have led to success this year. It seems the case every year, making this game so fun to play. 

I am thankful that players and the NFL are embracing the fantasy community. You see so much more engagement from players when it comes to fantasy football, especially a guy like Austin Ekeler. This is great news for the fantasy industry and players. This game should continue to evolve and flourish with guys like Ekeler leading the way as a strong advocate for the game. 

I am thankful the NFL trade market is a lot more exciting these days. I can’t remember a deadline that brought so much activity as this past year. It was great to see a guy like Christian McCaffrey get a fresh start in a much better offense. It is rare to see such a big-name player get traded in the NFL, but maybe this year will open the door for that to happen more often during the season. It sure made for an exciting deadline this year. Let’s hope that is the norm going forward. 

I am thankful for all the up to the minute info you can find on Twitter when it comes to injuries, trades, and any other breaking news that can impact your fantasy lineup. It is amazing how quickly news travels these days. This makes things so much easier than it used to when it comes to setting your lineups and rankings for the week. Say what you want about Twitter, but it has been a huge blessing to the fantasy community. Just a great way to engage and get up to the minute information. 

I am thankful for underdog stories. It is great to see players exceed expectations and help fantasy teams when no on thought that might be the case. The big one this year is Geno Smith. He is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and outplaying the player he replaced, Russell Wilson, by a wide margin. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming outside of Smith himself. It has been a great story. 

I am thankful for rookies. Everyone loves a rookie, but especially a rookie that helps fantasy teams. And there are plenty of rookies that are making an impact this year. That seems to be the case every year, but rookie running backs have been especially good this year despite none of them being super hyped come draft day. Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall look to be top fantasy players for years to come. 

Lastly, I am thankful for you, the users of RealTime Fantasy Sports. This is a great community to be a part of and I am super thankful to be just a small part of that. Thank you so much for helping make RTSports the best fantasy football community on the web. Have a great Thanksgiving!

News and Notes: The Broncos released running back Melvin Gordon on Monday. This was a surprise, but fumbling issues and a lack of consistency likely ended his time in Denver. Latavius Murray should get first shot to start for Denver going forward. . . . .The Panthers named Sam Darnold  the starting quarterback for Week 12. He takes over for Baker Mayfield, who has struggled much of the year. . . . .The Rams released running back Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. This was a bit of a surprise, leaving Cam Akers and Kyren Williams the likely players to split the carries at running back for the Rams going forward. 

HOT PLAYS

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys. The return of Ezekiel Elliott didn’t slow down Pollard. He still played 54 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Elliott. Pollard has 21-plus fantasy point three straight games. He has topped 100 total yards four straight games. And in Week 3 against the Giants, who he is playing this week, Pollard had a 100-yard rushing game. He is a must start for fantasy teams right now. 

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings. Hockenson didn’t have a great game his last time out, but the entire Vikings offense was a mess. The good new is he was still targeted nine times in the game. He has at least nine targets three straight games with the Vikings. He is getting a ton of weekly looks with his new team. He has double-digit fantasy points five times this season, showing he is capable of the big game. He can rebound this week against the Patriots, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. New England allows the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa has become about a must start for fantasy teams on a weekly basis. He is playing his best football right now, being third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has three straight games with three touchdown passes and hit the 300-yard mark two of those games. He has 26-plus fantasy points three consecutive games. He can reach those numbers again this week against the Texans, a team that allows 23 points per game. 

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker had one of his worst games of the season since becoming starter his last time out, rushing 10 times for just 17 yards. But the good news was he was still involved in the passing game, catching six passes for 55 yards on eight targets. This really helps his fantasy floor. He has at least 12 fantasy points six straight games. Look for him to get back to his big ways against a bad Raiders defense in Week 12. Las Vegas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin isn’t having quite the season most hoped, but it hasn’t been all bad by any means, especially since Taylor Heinicke has become the starter. He has 100-yard games two of four and been targeted at least eight times five straight. He has 17-plus fantasy points three of five games. He remains capable of the huge game any given week. And a matchup against the Falcons this week is a great one for McLaurin. Atlanta allows the most fantasy points to receivers and are 29th overall against the pass. 

COLD PLAYS 

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones has played better football lately, but still hasn’t been great all year. He has six games with fewer than 20 fantasy points. And one of his favorite targets in the passing game, Wan’Dale Robinson, is now out for the season. This is not good news for Jones, especially this week against a very good Cowboys defense. Jones scored just 16.7 fantasy points in Week 3 against Dallas. He passed for just 196 yards and didn’t score a touchdown. Go with better options in Week 12. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara has been pretty quiet lately, especially on the ground. He has fewer than 50-rushing yard three straight games. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He isn’t even getting enough work in the passing game to make up for those poor rushing totals. It could be more of the same this week against a very good 49ers defense. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank first overall against the run, allowing just 81.1-rushing yards per game. 

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers. Johnson is super talented but just isn’t getting it done for fantasy teams right now. He is not stretching the field at all, leading to poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points four of five games. He has less than 50 yards four of those games. His season high in yards is just 84. He is a hard player to trust, especially this week against the Colts. Indy allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank seventh overall against the pass.  

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon had one of his worst games of the season last week, scoring just 9.2 fantasy points. He ran seven times for just 20 yards. He actually has fewer than 30-rushing yards two of three games. The Bengals are having some issues running the ball and it could be more of the same this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and rank second against the run. Tennesse has not allowed 100-rushing yards since Week 2. 

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is finally starting to show some signs of life as the Bears offense is heating up. He has scores two of three games. The concern is he has fewer than 50 yards two of those games. He still isn’t getting a ton of yards or catches despite the Bears playing well. And now Justin Fields is hurt and iffy to play, which is a big concern for Mooney. He might be a player to avoid this week against the Jets, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank 10th overall against the pass. 

SLEEPERS

Kalif Raymond, WR, Lions. Raymond has played at least 82% of the snaps six straight games. He is getting a lot of playing time in the Lions offense. And he has at least three receptions three straight games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent. He has a chance for a lot of targets once again against the Bills. The Lions are likely going to be playing from behind this game, needing to throw often. Raymond could be a sneaky WR3 for fantasy teams in Week 12. 

Rachaad White, RB, Bucs. White played more snaps than Leonard Fournette his last time out for the first time all season. White played 64 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Fournette. There could be a changing of the guard going on in Tampa. And White is playing well with his chances, hitting the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career his last game. If he gets that workload again this week against the Browns, White can produce big once again. Cleveland allows the second most fantasy points to running backs. 

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts. Campbell is a different receiver with Matt Ryan at the helm at quarterback. He has 12 receptions his last two games and had 17 receptions during a two-game stretch with Ryan starting earlier this season. Ryan targeted him 23 times during those two games. He has real fantasy value with Ryan starting in Indy. He should do well again this week against the Steelers, a team playing better defensively but still allow the second most fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh is dead last against the pass, allowing 272.1-passing yards per game. 

Foster Moreau, TE, Raiders. Moreau hasn’t done a whole lot in a starting role for the Raiders, but does have a double-digit game two weeks ago against the Colts. He has at least four targets four of five games. He is getting some weekly chances and producing decent number. He could hit that double-digit fantasy point total this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is not good against the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Moreau could be a good streaming option for fantasy teams. 

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard actually played the most snaps for the Panthers last week, playing 40 percent compared to 39 percent for D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard had just six touches in the game, but two were receptions, which helps his fantasy floor. He is the better pass catcher of the two, which helps him get on the field. The Panthers could struggle to run the ball against a good Broncos defense, so Hubbard could be on the field more once again as the Panthers might throw the ball more often. He could be worth a look in deeper formats for fantasy teams. 

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bills/Lions, Chargers/Cardinals, Raiders/Seahawks, Packers/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: Bears/Jets, Broncos/Panthers, Steelers/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Trey Benson Apr 26 8:50pm CT
Trey Benson

The Arizona Cardinals selected Florida State running back Trey Benson with the 66th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Benson could be the most complete running back in the draft class. He excelled at breaking tackles, setting the single-season FBS record by forcing 0.51 missed tackles per run. The 21-year-old also possesses great breakaway speed with 14 runs of 20 or more yards (ninth in FBS). Last season, Benson ran for 906 yards on the ground and 227 through the air and 15 total scores. He will join veteran James Connor, who could limit his fantasy value early on, but he should be an early second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Malachi Corley Apr 26 8:40pm CT
Malachi Corley

The New York Jets traded up with the Carolina Panthers to select Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley. Corley led the nation in yards after catch over the past two seasons, has great elusiveness, and had the most receptions in the FBS over the past three seasons with 253. The 22-year-old can threaten vertically as well and should be a strong deep threat option for Aaron Rodgers. Corley joins a wide receiver room with star Garrett Wilson and newly acquired Mike Williams. Corley could be a sleeper pick in fantasy this season as he could slot in as the number two option with the injury-prone Mike Williams.

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Jayden Daniels Apr 26 8:00pm CT
Jayden Daniels

The Commanders selected Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott with the No. 53 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old is coming off the best collegiate season of his career, totaling 49 catches for 676 yards and six touchdowns. While he's still young, he has the tools needed to be a potent pass-catcher moving ahead. Of course, Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz for playing time. It could also take Jayden Daniels some time to find his rhythm in Washington, meaning Sinnott might not be productive immediately.

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Kool-Aid McKinstry Apr 26 7:50pm CT
Kool-Aid McKinstry

With the No. 41 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Saints selected Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. New Orleans traded with Green Bay for this pick, so the 21-year-old will fill a void on the defensive side of the ball. McKinstry, a 2023 All-American, played three seasons at Alabama. He totaled 93 tackles (62 solo), adding two picks, two sacks, and 23 passes defensed. With the Saints looking to finish atop the NFC South in 2024-25, McKinstry should play a pivotal role right out of the gate.

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Adonai Mitchell Apr 26 7:40pm CT
Adonai Mitchell

The Indianapolis Colts selected Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the No. 52 overall pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Mitchell was rumored to be taken as high as the middle of Round 1, but he ultimately fell a bit and landed with quarterback Anthony Richarson. Mitchell spent two seasons at Georgia before transferring to the Longhorns, where he racked up 55 receptions for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns while playing alongside Xavier Worthy and J'Tavion Sanders. With Michael Pittman Jr. in town, Mitchell might be capped in the WR2 role, but the development of Richardson will dictate how much upside he may have.

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Roschon Johnson Apr 26 7:30pm CT
Roschon Johnson

The Carolina Panthers traded with the Indianapolis Colts to move up to the 46th spot to select Texas Longhorns running back Jonathon Brooks (knee). He was behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson on the Texas depth chart for two seasons. However, he broke out in 2023 with 1,139 yards and 10 rushing scores and was named second-team All-Big 12. The 20-year-old tore his ACL late in the season but should be ready for training camp. Brooks joins a crowded running back room with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, which could limit his fantasy value early in the season, but he should be a late first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Trevor Lawrence Apr 26 7:13pm CT
Trevor Lawrence

Dynasty | The 23rd overall pick in the draft, Brian Thomas, Jr., gives Trevor Lawrence a premier downfield threat. Dynasty Analysis: After losing Calvin Ridley to free agency, Lawrence was facing a dearth of receiving options like he hadn't seen in his three year career. Bringing in Brian Thomas, Jr. may even prove to be an upgrade for Lawrence as he looks to bounce back from a disappointing season. Lawrence was able to maintain a top 10 ranking among DLF rankers, but has been closer to dropping below his QB9 rank than rising back into the top five. The selection of Thomas might not move the needle for Lawrence's immediate dynasty value, but should give him every opportunity to outperform his projections.

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Keon Coleman Apr 26 7:13pm CT
Keon Coleman

Dynasty | The Buffalo Bills drafted FSU wide receiver Keon Coleman with the first pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Coleman was shut out of the first round but landed in a great spot, taken with the first pick of the second round by the Buffalo Bills. It's a dream scenario for Coleman, who lands with an elite quarterback in dire need of new weapons after losing so many this off-season. Coleman has work to do for sure but his landing spot is going to place him in the first round of virtually every rookie draft.

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Ladd McConkey Apr 26 7:13pm CT
Ladd McConkey

Dynasty | Ladd McConkey was drafted by the Chargers with the second pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: McConkey was taken early in the second round by the suddenly receiver-needy Chargers. A precise route runner with serious quickness, McConkey is going to be thrown into action early and often this season. He had a meteoric rise after the NFL Draft Combine and that, combined with a great landing spot, should keep him right around the turn of rounds one and two in rookie drafts.

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Xavier Worthy Apr 26 7:13pm CT
Xavier Worthy

Dynasty | Kelce is the sneaky winner of the defending champs' first round selection of WR Xavier Worthy. Dynasty Analysis: Adding another burner opposite Marquise "Hollywood" Brown gives the Chiefs the fastest receiving corps in the league. While neither WR expects to command an overwhelming target share, the biggest benefactor will be TE Travis Kelce as he operates in the wide open spaces of the middle of the field. Kelce's dynasty value has been creeping downward due to his age (34), dropping from his long time throne as QB1 all the way to QB6 in DLF's dynasty rankings. With the field-stretching speedsters on the perimeter opening up the field, Kelce is a virtual lock to outperform most of the tight ends currently ranked ahead of him.

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Justin Herbert Apr 26 7:13pm CT
Justin Herbert

Dynasty | After getting a new left tackle in round one, Justin Herbert's stock continues to rise as the Chargers trade up for Ladd McConkey. Dynasty Analysis: Even after the team used it's fifth overall pick to protect Herbert's blindside, skepticism remained due to a lack of weaponry. But the Chargers moved up three spots to acquire a new top pass catcher (and Keenan Allen replacement in the slot), Ladd McConkey. The Chargers likely aren't done building the offense around Herbert, but with just those two draft picks, the franchise has made their quarterback a dynasty value. DLF's QB6 has QB1 overall upside with his own skillset and a little help from his supporting cast.

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Drake Maye Apr 26 7:13pm CT
Drake Maye

Dynasty | The Patriots drafted Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected, Polk was drafted right in the middle of a big receiver run in the NFL Draft, going to the Patriots early in round two. He was the tenth receiver taken but amazingly the 37th overall pick, which just shows the depth of this draft. Polk lands in a desirable spot as the Patriots depth chart at receiver is a mess. He'll need to grow together with Drake Maye but some patience could be rewarded here. Polk looks like a pretty solid pick in round two of conventional rookie drafts.

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Ja'Lynn Polk Apr 26 6:50pm CT
Ja'Lynn Polk

The New England Patriots selected Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk with the No. 37 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. New England has often been predicted to pick a wide receiver in Round 2 after landing their QB of the future in Round 1, and that's exactly what they did. Despite sharing the field with stud wide receiver Rome Odunze in 2023, Polk caught 69 passes for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns during Washington's run to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Given the weak wide receiver room in New England, he's another rookie wideout who could become his team's No. 1 wide receiver in short order. He has the ability to start at X-receiver immediately.

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Keon Coleman Apr 26 6:30pm CT
Keon Coleman

The Buffalo Bills have selected Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman with the No. 33 overall pick (second round) in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 20-year-old was rumored to have a chance at being drafted in the first round, but Buffalo traded back twice and still landed him. The 6'4", 215-pound pass-catcher is a contested-catch specialist and racked up 18 touchdowns in his last 24 games with Florida State and Michigan State. With Stefon Diggs gone to Houston, Coleman could step in right away and act as Josh Allen's No. 1 wide receiver. This is a great landing spot, and Coleman is very much in the first-round conversation of upcoming rookie drafts in all formats.

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Ladd McConkey Apr 26 6:30pm CT
Ladd McConkey

The Los Angeles Chargers selected University of Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey with the No. 34 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Friday. McConkey is viewed as one of the best route runners in this wide receiver class, and the Chargers had a dire need at wideout after moving on from Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason. Although McConkey's numbers over the last three years aren't all that impressive (119 receptions for 1,687 yards and 14 touchdowns), it's worth noting he battled injuries as a senior, and he dominated at the NFL Combine. With Quentin Johnston struggling to make an impact as a rookie, McConkey could make a run to be Justin Herbert's go-to target.

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Deebo Samuel Apr 26 5:20pm CT
Deebo Samuel

The San Francisco 49ers have listened to calls on All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel, but sources are saying that the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are considered highly unlikely to trade for him. After the first round of the 2024 NFL draft was completed on Thursday night, a report surfaced that the Niners were more likely to trade Samuel than Brandon Aiyuk. There has been a lot of trade talk around both Aiyuk and Samuel this offseason, and the Niners' first-round pick of receiver Ricky Pearsall at No. 31 on Thursday night made it look like a trade was more likely to happen. The Bills and Patriots have the first two picks in the second round, respectively, so if neither of them can pull off a trade for Samuel before Round 2 starts, they could both go with pass-catchers in what is a deep and talented class in 2024.

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Brian Callahan Apr 26 4:00pm CT
Brian Callahan

Former Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham was selected with the seventh overall pick by the Tennessee Titans in the 2024 NFL draft. Tennessee had a glaring need at left tackle, but Latham played on the right side for Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa. However, Titans head coach Brian Callahan said Latham is eager to play on the left side and has the traits to do so. Tennessee had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season, but with Latham, second-year guard Peter Skoronski, and newly signed center Lloyd Cushenberry starting up front, the unit could be one of the biggest improvers in 2024. This bodes well for all of Tennessee's fantasy-relevant offensive skill players.

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Matthew Stafford Apr 26 3:40pm CT
Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is seeking a reworked deal that includes more guaranteed money, according to NFL Insider Ian Rapaport. The 36-year-old has three years left on his current deal, though the Rams have a potential out following the 2025 season. The four-year contract that he signed ahead of the 2022 season included $130 million in total guarantees. The Super Bowl-winning QB has been present at voluntary workouts this offseason and a holdout does not appear to be imminent, but this is a situation worth monitoring. After posting nearly 4,000 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions en route to a playoff berth in 2023, Stafford believes he has plenty left in the tank.

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MarShawn Lloyd Apr 26 3:30pm CT
MarShawn Lloyd

Former Southern California and South Carolina running back MarShawn Lloyd is viewed as a top-five running back in the 2024 NFL Draft class, and NFL insider Tom Pelissero believes he could be the first ball carrier selected. The 23-year-old missed his entire freshman season at South Carolina with a torn ACL and handled just 196 touches for 1,021 yards and 12 total touchdowns over his next two seasons. He transferred to Southern Cal for the 2023 campaign and posted 820 rushing yards (7.1 YPC), 232 receiving yards (17.8 YPR), and nine total touchdowns. He turned heads at the 2024 NFL Combine with a 4.46 forty-yard dash time at 220 pounds, and in a weak running back draft class, that might have been enough to push him into the RB1 spot for some NFL squads.

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Spencer Rattler Apr 26 3:20pm CT
Spencer Rattler

Former Oklahoma and South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler was once viewed as a potential first-round pick after being a five-star recruit in the high-school class of 2019. His career did not go as expected, but he's thought to be the next-best quarterback on the board in the 2024 NFL draft. The first round saw six signal-callers selected in the top 12 picks, and any other teams looking to take a flyer on a quarterback likely have Rattler on their radar. The Around The NFL staff at NFL.com expects the 23-year-old to be selected in Round 3, but the run of quarterbacks on Day 1 could push him up to Round 2. Rattler threw for 10,807 yards, 77 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in 48 games with the Sooners and Gamecocks.

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