Lineup Prep: Week 13
Wed Nov 30 10:13am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Lawrence is playing at high level
It is crunch time for a lot of fantasy owners. We are nearing the end of the regular season in many formats, so all these upcoming games are so crucial to a lot of fantasy owners. Hopefully, your roster is in good shape and ready to make a run in the playoffs. It should be a fun finish to the season.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
To me, it really looks like the light has come on for Trevor Lawrence. He had maybe his best game as a pro last week, leading his team to an exciting victory with time running out. Confidence goes a long way and it sure seems Lawrence is brimming with that right now. And if you look at this schedule, Lawrence fantasy owners should be brimming with confidence as well. He has games against the Lions, Titans the next two and championship week has him against the Texans. Lawrence could be a difference maker in this year’s fantasy playoffs.
It is never too early to start planning ahead. So if you stream defenses or kickers, start looking at the teams with the best playoff schedules and plan accordingly. You might have extra room on your roster to start stashing players/teams with good schedules for the playoffs. A proactive owners is a winning owner.
The tight end position seems like a dart throw every week outside of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. This position has been a tough one this year. Some guys have played well at times, but the consistency has not been there. I’m going to be anxious to see the numbers after the season of championship teams that owned Kelce. I have a feeling it is going to be pretty high with the season he is having and the huge disparity between him and the rest of the tight ends.
Austin Ekeler is first overall in fantasy running back scoring and has run for just 554 yards. He has fewer than seven carries two of his last three games. That doesn’t mean a whole lot when you are posting reception numbers better than nearly every player in the league, including receivers. Ekeler has 80 catches on the year, including three games with double-digit receptions. He is so consistent because of his reception totals. Plus, he finds the end zone often on a team that puts up a lot of points. Ekeler might be the perfect fantasy back because of the way he accumulates his points. He is so safe for fantasy teams.
I know I have spoken about him before, but I can’t get over the season Geno Smith is having. This really came out of nowhere. It is crazy to think how good he has been this year. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has multiple touchdowns five straight games and all but two this year. He had his third 300-yard game last week. And he has 20-plus fantasy points four straight. Smit has been so consistent all season, which is all you can ask for as a fantasy owner. I didn’t know if he could sustain his play all year, but I’m a believer. He is a legit QB1 and top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Smith has been a huge surprise in a good way at the quarterback spot, but Matt Ryan is the exact opposite. I had high hopes for him this year in Indy, but he looks awful right now. Ryan seems to be bracing for a hit every time he drops back to pass. And he rarely attempts a pass more than 10 yards. I didn’t think he would fall this far so quickly. I expected him to be a good stopgap for the Colts and play near the Philip Rivers level for the team. Well, that hasn’t been the case at all. Ryan has been a huge disappointment for me.
News and Notes: The Chiefs signed running back Melvin Gordon to their practice squad. Gordon has the potential to eventually earn some playing time with his new team. . . . .The Bears signed safety Adrian Colbert on Tuesday. The veteran gives the team some much needed depth at the position after the injury to starter Eddie Jackson.
HOT PLAY
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. Lawrence is playing the best football of his career right now. He is fifth in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three and ninth overall. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight and five of six games. He scored a season-high 29.2 fantasy points last week, throwing for 321 yards and three scores. He can keep his hot ways this week against the Lions. Detroit allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 29th overall against the pass.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. Jacobs is now second overall in fantasy running back scoring after his huge game last week. He topped 300 total yards and had maybe the best game of the entire season for any running back. Jacobs is a set it and forget it fantasy play. He has four games with 30-plus fantasy points. Jacobs could have another one of his huge games this week against a bad Chargers run defense. Los Angeles aloes the fifth most fantasy points to running backs and 28th overall against the run.
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans. Burks is quickly emerging as an elite receiver. He is growing on a weekly basis and has 70-plus yards each of his last two games. He has 17-plus fantasy points each of those games. Burks is almost a low-end WR1 with Ryan Tannehill back in the lineup and throwing him passes. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, but remains a good play for fantasy teams. The Titans are going to need to score some points and could be playing from behind, so look for Burks to get plenty of work in this one. Don’t be scared to use him because of the tough matchup.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears. Montgomery has played well since getting the bulk of the carries with Khalil Herbert out of the lineup. He has 100-plus total yards each of his last two games. And he has topped 14 fantasy points each of those games. He is a low-end No. 1 fantasy back in his current role. Montgomery plays the Packers, a team he had his only 100-yard rushing performance against this year in Week 2. The Packers are just 31st against the run, allowing 154.8-rushing yards per game.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers. Pickens is another young receiver coming into his own. He has been rock solid with Kenny Pickett as his starting quarterback. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight and four of five games. He has a knack for the acrobatic catch every week, showing his big-tie ability. He can hit double-digit fantasy points once again this week against the Falcons, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and are 28th overall against the pass.
COLD PLAYS
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Ravens. Robinson has showing flashes of big things lately, having 12-plus fantasy points two of four games. He also has disappeared at times, catching just a pass for 17 yards last week. He is a hit or miss fantasy play. Look for a miss this week. Robinson has a really tough matchup against a very good Broncos defense. Denver allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers and are third overall against the pass.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman has produced despite getting poor quarterback play. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games. He was targeted 11 times last week, giving him double-digit targets three games. He has put up a few stinkers, though, having fewer than 6.5 fantasy points two games. He is a tough player to bench but this might be a week to consider it. Pittman plays the Cowboys, a team that is first overall against the pass. Dallas allows just 177.7-passing yards per game.
Mac Jones, QB, Patriots. Jones played his best game of the season last week, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a really bad Vikings secondary, though. Remember, Jones had fewer than 15 fantasy points three straight games before last week. He has some potential going forward, but is likely a matchup play. Jones gets the Bills in Week 13, a team that allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bills have allowed just 14-passing touchdowns and have 13 interceptions, which leads the league. This is not a week to use Jones.
Jeff Wilson, RB, Dolphins. Wilson had his worst game as a Dolphin last week, rushing 13 times for just 39 yards. He did find the end zone, which saved his fantasy day. It would not surprise to see him struggle this week, though. Wilson gets his old team, the 49ers. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and the fewest rushing yards in football. Wilson might be a player to consider benching despite his strong play since joining the Dolphins.
Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. Singletary played well last week but didn’t hit double-digit fantasy points despite rushing 14 times for 72 yards. He continues to get little work in the passing game, having just four catches his last three games. His lack of work in the passing game really hurts his fantasy ceiling. He might not find much room to run this week, which is a concern for his fantasy value. He has a tough matchup, playing the Patriots. New England allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs.
SLEEPERS
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams is emerging in the Rams backfield and could be the starter the rest of the way. He played a season high 70 percent of the snaps last week. He had 14 touches for 60 yards. The Rams are a mess right now, but Williams still has fantasy value. He can help fantasy teams as a flex play, especially this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and are 29th overall against the run.
Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Falcons. Zaccheaus had his best game of the season last week, catching five passes for 91 yards on eight targets. This wasn’t his first good fantasy game, though, having three games with double-digit fantasy points. He has produced at times. And his chances could be rising now with Kyle Pitts out of the lineup. Zaccheaus could be worth a flier this week against the Steelers, a team that allows the most fantasy points to receivers on the season.
Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson was a bust last week, failing to catch a pass on just two targets. He was playing great before that, though, having at least 12 fantasy points three straight games. He has become a big part of the passing game despite last week. Look for a rebound game this week against the Bucs. Tampa allows the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. And earlier this year, Johnson tied a season high with seven targets against the Bucs in Week 2.
Mike White, QB, Jets. White was tremendous in his first start of the year, going 22-of-28 for 315 yards and three touchdowns against a pretty good Bears pass defense. He made good decisions and was decisive with the football. He has shown a knack for the big game throughout his career when getting a chance to start. He might have another good showing this week against the Vikings. Minnesota has struggled against the pass much of the year and allow the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. If you are looking for a streaming option in Week 13, White is worth consideration.
Kendall Hinton, WR, Broncos. Hinton has at least three catches three straight games and at least 8.7 fantasy points each of those games. His numbers aren’t off the charts, but he is getting the looks and producing some. He also is on the field a ton, which is encouraging. He has played at least 88 percent of the snaps three straight games. We think he can hit double-digit fantasy points this week against a bad Ravens secondary. Baltimore allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and are 27th overall against the pass.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Lions, Dolphins/49ers, Chiefs/Bengals, Chargers/Raiders.
Low Scoring Games: Packers/Bears, Commanders/Giants, Broncos/Ravens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.
When asked by Rich Eisen if he has any idea on where he's going to end up in this week's NFL draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy hinted at the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the first round on Thursday night. "I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I've spent the most time with. They're a phenomenal staff," McCarthy said. The young QB's stock has been rising rapidly ever since his pro-day workout. Reports suggest the Giants and Vikings could be in a raise to trade up to select McCarthy, who is attractive because of his experience running a pro-style offense in college. With Daniel Jones (knee) coming off a torn ACL and with no guaranteed money owed to him beyond 2024, the G-Men have done their due diligence on QBs in this year's draft and feel like a lock to take one at some point this week.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.
From RotoBaller
The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe predicts that New York Giants will trade the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in order to move up to fourth overall to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy on Thursday night. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down for a second straight year. If LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye remain available at No. 4, the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders would probably become more aggressive in pursuing the fourth overall pick. "I think there's going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings," a coach said. McCarthy doesn't have the upside that the top three QBs in this class do, but rival executives cited concerns with Giants current QB Daniel Jones' (knee) health after tearing his ACL and dealing with a neck injury in 2023.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Jeff Howe thinks No. 3 to the New England Patriots in Thursday night's NFL draft feels like the spot for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, although a couple executives made a case for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and athletic ability, but there's genuine concern about his inconsistencies in 2023, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. He has a reputation as a high-character person with great leadership abilities. Maye would be the more traditional pick at No. 3 to the Pats, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprise. If Maye is still available at No. 3, one executive thinks the Minnesota Vikings "would move heaven and Earth" to try and move up to draft him. If Maye lands in New England, he could sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys officially picked up hybrid defensive end Micah Parsons' fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the move. Parsons' salary is worth $21.32 million as a defensive end, which is the position at which he played the majority of his snaps in 2023. The 24-year-old former 12th overall pick in 2021 out of Penn State has been a beast rushing the passer so far in his first three NFL seasons. He's made the Pro Bowl in all three seasons and has a total of 213 tackles (142 solo), 40.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss, 89 QB hits, eight passes defended, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries (one returned for a touchdown) in 50 regular-season starts. Parsons had 64 tackles and a career-high 14 sacks in 2023 and will once again be a highly coveted pass-rusher in IDP fantasy formats this fall.
From RotoBaller
Word around the league is that the Washington Commanders have advocates in their building for both LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and North Carolina QB Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for The Athletic's story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for Daniels. The belief from rival teams is that the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process, but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick. One executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn't rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. Still, it's highly unlikely Daniels drops out of the top five. If he goes to D.C., he'll be favored to start from Day 1 in his rookie season.
From RotoBaller
Carolina Panthers linebacker Shaq Thompson (leg), offensive guard Austin Corbett (knee), pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and running back Tarik Cohen (Achilles) have all been taking part in drills during voluntary offseason workouts this week. Meanwhile, offensive guard Chandler Zavala (knee) and linebackers D.J. Wonnum (quadriceps) Amare Barno (knee) weren't participating in drills. Thompson, who suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 last year against the New Orleans Saints, is the most notable name of this group. The 30-year-old should be ready to go for training camp and the preseason later this year as long as he doesn't suffer a setback before then. The former 25th overall pick in 2015 out of Washington recorded 100-plus combined tackles in each of his previous four seasons with Carolina before getting hurt in 2023.
From RotoBaller
Cincinnati Bengals three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson has requested to be traded from the Bengals, according to a league source. Hendrickson is due to make $15 million in 2024 and is looking for more long-term security than the Bengals have been willing to offer. It remains to be seen if the 29-year-old's wish will be granted with the first round of the 2024 NFL draft coming on Thursday evening. The former third-round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2017 out of Florida Atlantic has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons with the Bengals. In 17 starts in 2023, he had a career-high 43 tackles (28 solo), a career-high 17.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 25 QB hits and three forced fumbles. Even if he heads to a new team for 2024, Hendrickson should still be in play as a weekly starting defensive lineman in IDP fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
The Dallas Cowboys are currently meeting with free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott's representatives around the facility on Wednesday, a day before the start of the 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. There has been mutual interest from both sides in a reunion this offseason as the Cowboys look to bolster their running back position after losing Tony Pollard in free agency. As of right now, Dallas' RB room consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, Royce Freeman and Snoop Conner. The 28-year-old Elliott had 184 carries for 642 yards (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns while adding 51 catches for 313 yards and another two scores through the air in 17 games for the New England Patriots in 2023. At this point in his career, Zeke needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and that probably won't happen if he returns to Dallas.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent RB Ezekiel Elliott's (Patriots) representative is meeting with the Dallas Cowboys Wednesday, April 24, according to a source.
Fantasy Spin: The Cowboys do not have a clear starter at running back, so Elliott probably would have a big role if he decided to return to the Cowboys. Fantasy players can monitor the situation because Elliott could be at least a flex option if he starts in 2024.
From TheHuddle
Free-agent DE Dawuane Smoot (Jaguars) recently met with the Houston Texans.
From TheHuddle
The Los Angeles Chargers are set to undergo a rebuilding phase following the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the departures of longtime offensive weapons Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. L.A. has been rumored to be a top landing spot for Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison or LSU wideout Malik Nabers, but Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report suggests they are likely to pick an offensive tackle if they stay at pick No. 5. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is expected to be the first player at the position off the board. Alt has been mocked to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 7 for much of the offseason, so the Chargers picking the 2023 first-team All-American would shake things up drastically. The Chargers have a lot of options with teams potentially trying to move up for a quarterback, so they are one of the key teams to monitor in the first round on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament at the quarterback spot. The organization signed Daniel Jones (knee) to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, but he didn't play well in 2023, and he is coming off a torn ACL. There has been plenty of buzz surrounding New York selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that they could pass on a quarterback if North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't available at pick No. 6. "Most teams believe if Maye is off the board, the Giants' most likely scenario is to go wide receiver to land a player who can help an offense that was last in the league in yards after the catch in 2023," Russini wrote. If the reports are true, look for New York to target LSU's Malik Nabers in that draft slot. That said, Washington's Rome Odunze is likely in consideration as well.
From RotoBaller
University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has seemingly been rising draft boards this offseason, and NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that he could enter the discussion to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board. "It's been assumed the top four QBs are Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy," Russini wrote "But don't be surprised if Penix enters the discussion come Thursday." Penix, who will be 24 years old during his rookie season, had a monster two-year stretch with Washington after four injury-riddled campaigns at Indiana. In 2022 and 2023, combined, the lefty posted 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. He ran between a 4.51 and 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Huskies' Pro Day, so his 226 career rushing yards might not demonstrate his full rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent DE Calais Campbell (Falcons) is a player the Atlanta Falcons are open to re-signing this offseason, according to general manager Terry Fontenot.
From TheHuddle
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a monster 2023 season, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He led Detroit to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and the organization won two playoff games in a single postseason for the first time since 1957. On Wednesday, the team signed Pro Bowl wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to high-dollar four-year contract extensions, but Goff is reportedly not close to agreeing to a new long-term deal. According to Adam Schefter, no new deal is "imminent" as of now. This will be an interesting development to watch play out, as the former Los Angeles Rams No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of his contract in the Motor City and could become a free agent next offseason.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Lions have signed wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: The contract is basically a four-year, $120 million extension with $77 million guaranteed, the most ever for a wide receiver in NFL history. It's a huge haul for St. Brown, who has quickly established himself as one of the best players in the NFL. After his 119/1,515/10 season last year, the Lions were going to either pay him or risk losing him after his rookie deal expired. They've clearly chosen to build around him and he should be firmly cemented as a WR1 in dynasty moving forward. St. Brown is an easy target for any team looking for a premier centerpiece to their dynasty team as the best could truly be yet to come.
