Postseason Shootout | RealTime Fantasy Sports

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 5

Fri Oct 8 11:26am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Lawrence has DFS value Week 5

Week 5 brings the last full slate of games before bye weeks kick in. That means we still have a lot of options to wade through in DFS. Let’s try to help narrow down the field by highlighting some players to consider for your entries, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, BUF at KC ($8,000): There is the potential for plenty of points to be scored when the Bills take on the Chiefs. The Chiefs have allowed 31.3 points per game, which is the second most in the NFL. Allen has 10 total touchdowns through four games and has a ton of weapons around him, so expect him to have a big performance as the Bills try to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and company.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. TEN ($5,800): Lawrence had a quiet showing against the Bengals last week, completing 17-of-24 passes for 204 yards and no touchdowns. He did provide some value with his legs, rushing eight times for 36 yards and a score. Overall, he’s off to a rough start with five touchdowns passes and seven interceptions. However, this is a great matchup for him against the Titans, who have allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game in the league. They even had difficulties against Zach Wilson last week, who threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns after combing for zero touchdown passes and six interceptions his previous two games.

Player to Avoid

Jameis Winston, NO at WAS ($5,600): Winston might be an appealing play on the surface given Washington’s defensive struggles. They’ve allowed 10-passing touchdowns, which is tied for the fourth-most in the league. However, Winston might not receive enough opportunities to take advantage of this matchup. He hasn’t attempted more than 23 passes in a game this season, which has contributed to him throwing a total of three touchdowns over the last three games. Throwing for five touchdowns over 20 attempts like he did in Week 1 is not sustainable, so the with the expectation that he remains limited in this matchup, his upside might not actually be that high.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb, CLE at LAC ($6,700): If you’re looking for a running back who contributes in the passing game, you won’t find one in Chubb. He’s received only four targets this season. However, he’s rushed for at least 83 yards in all four games, including 100 yards on 21 carries in Week 4. Also, he has a whopping 18 red-zone carries so far. There’s the potential that he smokes a Chargers team that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game.

Zack Moss, BUF at KC ($5,300): One of the few teams that has been worse at stopping the run than the Chargers has been the Chiefs, who have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game. That makes Moss an interesting option, especially at his cheap salary. He’s received at least 13 carries and rushed for at last 60 yards back-to-back games and he reached the end zone in Week 4. That could become a more common theme for him given that he has 13 red-zone carries through the three games that he has played.

Player to Avoid

Najee Harris, PIT vs. DEN ($6,900): The good news for Harris is that he has received at least 14 carries in three of four games. The bad news is that his poor offensive line hasn’t left him with many open running lanes. He hasn’t topped 62 yards in a game yet and has rushed for 45 yards or fewer three times. More tough sledding could be ahead against the Broncos, who have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game and just two rushing touchdowns.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel, SF at ARI ($7,100): It’s uncertain who will start at quarterback for the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a calf injury. Trey Lance certainly looked comfortable throwing to Samuel when he stepped in, though, helping Samuel finish Week 4 with eight catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Samuel has received at least eight targets in all four games and should remain busy as the 49ers try to keep pace with the Cardinals’ explosive offense.

Emmanuel Sanders, BUF at KC ($5,000): Despite having Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley in the fold, the Bills haven’t been shy about looking Sanders’ way. He’s received at least six targets in all four games, helping him catch 16 passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns. His total of two red-zone targets indicates the Bills might not look his way often when they get in close, but his target share alone means that he could provide value at this salary.

Player to Avoid

Odell Beckham Jr., CLE at LAC ($6,000): Make no mistake about it, the Browns are a run-heavy team. Beckham still managed to receive seven targets in Week 4, but he could only catch two of them for 27 yards. He’s a shell of the player that we remember making sparkling one-handed catches with the Giants, so rolling with him at this salary against a Chargers defense that has only allowed six passing touchdowns this season might be ill-advised.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz, DAL vs. NYG ($4,400): There is some potential value to be had at tight end this week. One option to consider is Schultz, who has followed up nicely from a breakout 2020 campaign in which he posted 63 receptions, 615 yards and four touchdowns. He already has three scores this season and has received at least six targets in three of four games. Up next is a matchup against a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.

Mike Gesicki, MIA at TB ($4,100): Teams often have to throw a lot against the Buccaneers for two reasons. First, they have a stellar run defense. Second, they have to try and keep up with Tom Brady and their offense. That’s contributed to the Bucs allowing the most passing yards per game in the league and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Gesicki has received at least six targets in three straight games and should remain busy with Will Fuller (finger) out.

Player to Avoid

Robert Tonyan, GB at CIN ($4,300): Despite only receiving 59 targets over 16 games last season, Tonyan managed to produce 11 touchdowns. That rate isn’t sustainable and that’s proven to be the case this season with him reaching the end zone only one time so far. He only has a total of eight catches for 74 yards, so with Schultz and Gesicki filling larger roles with their teams and having similar salaries, taking a chance on Tonyan doesn’t seem necessary.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 5

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