Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games
Wed Jan 18 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Kelce should get plenty of targets
And then there were eight. Yes, eight teams left for a right to go to the Super Bowl. It should be a great weekend of action. I think all the games should be very competitive and could go either way. I really mean that. The Giants are big underdogs but just keep getting better each week. And Daniel Jones is playing some great football. So needless to say, I’m really looking forward to the action this week. It should be great!
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .
If I’m an NFL team, I’m not sure I pursue Tom Brady. I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. The only scenario that makes sense to be is if I draft a quarterback I don’t trust as a rookie. You hate to count him out, but I’m just not sure he is going to be a difference maker at this stage of his career. He just misses on some throws he normally makes and will be another year older next season.
I can’t see how the Chargers bring back Brandon Staley as head coach. That teams has too much talent to disappoint like they have this year. That offense needs a big-time spark, wasting some elite talent on that side of the ball. And Staley playing his starters in a meaningless game at the end of the year made no sense. It cost him with Mike Williams getting hurt. And then he blows a game in the playoffs he was up by 27 points. It sounds like the Chargers will bring him back, though, which is not good news for that team in my view.
You have to wonder what the Cowboys are going to do at kicker after Brett Maher missed four extra points last week. That has to be a huge concern for them. Every point matters so much in the playoffs. A missed extra point could be the difference between moving on or going home. I can’t see the team having much faith in him after that display last week. It is tough to make a change at this point, though, especially with Maher kicking so well during the regular season.
So the big question this offseason is where does Lamar Jackson land. He is not coming back to the Ravens. That much I do know. I like the Jets as a fit. A young, up and coming team that sorely needs a franchise quarterback. He would have a lot of talent to work with offensively and could be a good fit there. I actually like the Falcons too as a landing spot. They have a strong running game and solid offensive line. Plus, it would be great seeing Jackson throw passes to Kyle Pitts. It should be an interesting offseason regarding Jackson. The good news is you can expect him to get moved before the draft, so we should know sooner than later.
That was quite the performance from Trevor Lawrence last week. He showed me a lot, coming back from his four interceptions. He could have folded and quit after the start to his game. That didn’t happen. He kept plugging along and adjusted to his first-half mistakes. Lawrence just keeps impressing me on a weekly basis. He is going to be a good one for years to come.
I’m anxious to see how Brock Purdy responds when he is called on in a close game. The stage hasn’t been too big for him to start his career, but it is going to just keep getting bigger for him as his team advances in the playoffs. He has answered every question to date, which has been impressive. How will he do if asked to complete a game-winning drive at the end of a game? It will be fun to watch.
News and Notes: The Titans hired 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon as their new general manager. Carthon comes from a great organization and could be a great get for the Titans organization. . . . .Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has informed interested teams that he's staying in Detroit in 2023. This is great news for the Lions offense, keeping Johnson in the fold for next season.
HOT PLAYS
Christian Kirk, WR, Jaguars. Kirk had a great showing in the Jaguars playoff opener, scoring 21.8 fantasy points. He has 21-plus points two straight games. He has been great as the top target in the Jaguars passing game. Expect more of the same this week against Kansas City. Kirk had nine receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10. The Chiefs allow the eighth most fantasy points to receivers.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce is a must start every week, but look for the Chiefs to lean on him even more in the playoffs. Kelce has not scored touchdown since Week 12, but has four games with double-digit fantasy points during the stretch. He gets his weekly chances. Kelce had six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown against this same Jaguars team earlier this season. The Jaguars also have struggled to stop the tight end this year, allowing the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends.
Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. Sanders had his best season to date this year. He topped 1,200-rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns in the Eagles explosive offense. He has enjoyed some huge games, including one against the Giants in Week 14. He ran 17 times for a season-high 144 yards and two scores in that game. He could get a big workload again this week against a Giants team that ranks 27th overall against the run.
COLD PLAYS
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott is becoming a touchdown dependent fantasy play. He just isn’t doing much outside of finding the end zone. He has fewer than 40-rushing yards his last three games. He has run 21 times for just 37 yards his last two. We just aren’t sure he is worth the risk right now for fantasy teams. The 49ers also have been great against the run this year, ranking first overall in fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs. The 49ers are second overall against the run, allowing 77.7-rushing yards per game.
Isaiah Hodgins, WR, Giants. Hodgins had his best game of the season last week, catching eight passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. He has been a big surprise down the stretch for the Giants, emerging as a top threat in the passing game opposite Richie Jams. But even with that said, he has just two games all season with more than 50 yards. He has been mediocre more than outstanding. And a matchup against a great Eagles secondary is not a good one for him. Philadelphia is first overall against the pass, allowing just 179.8-passing yards per game.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis has been up and down all season, frustrating fantasy owners. He was up last week, catching six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. It was a great showing for Davis. You just never know what you are going to get with him, though. He has a really tough matchup against a rapidly improving Bengals defense, a secondary that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers. It might be a down game for Davis this week.
SLEEPERS
Hayden Hurst, TE, Bengals. Hurst hasn’t been off the charts this year, but pretty consistent for the Bengals. He has at least four receptions nine times. And he has been pretty involved in the offense since coming back from injury two weeks back. He has 11 targets his last two games and caught four passes each of those games. The Bills might focus on shutting down the high-powered receivers in the Bengals offense, giving Hurst a few more favorable looks. He might be a sneaky play for fantasy teams in this one.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, 49ers. Mitchell returned to action late in the year and has found the end zone each of the last two games he has played. He had just 27 total yards last week but had 11 touches in the game. The 49ers are getting him the ball, so expect more of the same for a team that likes to get multiple backs involved offensively. Plus, he gets a Cowboys team this week that has allowed some big rushing games this season. Dallas has allowed 150-plus rushing yards six times, including 200-plus yards twice. Mitchell could really do some damage with double-digit touches this week.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills. Beasley had a season-high five targets last week for the Bills. He had two catches for 35 yards and his first touchdown of the season. He has a familiarity with Josh Allen and this offense, so he is worth a dart throw for fantasy teams in what could be a high-scoring game. It would not surprise to see Beasley find the end zone once again.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Chiefs, Bengals/Bills, Giants/Eagles.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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- LSU QB Jayden Daniels ready for anything on draft night
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- Bengals exercise 5th-year option on WR Ja'Marr Chase
- Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown gets $120M extension
- Free agent Xavien Howard cleared for FB activities
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- Polarizing Michael Penix Jr. drawing heavy public interest
- NFL tampering probe won't affect 2024 draft picks for Eagles, Falcons
- Texans unveil first uniform redesign in franchise history
- Bengals re-sign QB Jake Browning
- Chiefs extend deals of Andy Reid, GM, president
- 49ers GM John Lynch expects WR Brandon Aiyuk to stay long-term
- Fantasy Six Pack: NFL Mock Draft – Post-Free Agency Edition
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The Paur Report
The Los Angeles Chargers are set to undergo a rebuilding phase following the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the departures of longtime offensive weapons Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. L.A. has been rumored to be a top landing spot for Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison or LSU wideout Malik Nabers, but Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report suggests they are likely to pick an offensive tackle if they stay at pick No. 5. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is expected to be the first player at the position off the board. Alt has been mocked to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 7 for much of the offseason, so the Chargers picking the 2023 first-team All-American would shake things up drastically. The Chargers have a lot of options with teams potentially trying to move up for a quarterback, so they are one of the key teams to monitor in the first round on Thursday.
From RotoBaller
The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament at the quarterback spot. The organization signed Daniel Jones (knee) to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, but he didn't play well in 2023, and he is coming off a torn ACL. There has been plenty of buzz surrounding New York selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that they could pass on a quarterback if North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't available at pick No. 6. "Most teams believe if Maye is off the board, the Giants' most likely scenario is to go wide receiver to land a player who can help an offense that was last in the league in yards after the catch in 2023," Russini wrote. If the reports are true, look for New York to target LSU's Malik Nabers in that draft slot. That said, Washington's Rome Odunze is likely in consideration as well.
From RotoBaller
University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has seemingly been rising draft boards this offseason, and NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that he could enter the discussion to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board. "It's been assumed the top four QBs are Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy," Russini wrote "But don't be surprised if Penix enters the discussion come Thursday." Penix, who will be 24 years old during his rookie season, had a monster two-year stretch with Washington after four injury-riddled campaigns at Indiana. In 2022 and 2023, combined, the lefty posted 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. He ran between a 4.51 and 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Huskies' Pro Day, so his 226 career rushing yards might not demonstrate his full rushing ability.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a monster 2023 season, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He led Detroit to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and the organization won two playoff games in a single postseason for the first time since 1957. On Wednesday, the team signed Pro Bowl wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to high-dollar four-year contract extensions, but Goff is reportedly not close to agreeing to a new long-term deal. According to Adam Schefter, no new deal is "imminent" as of now. This will be an interesting development to watch play out, as the former Los Angeles Rams No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of his contract in the Motor City and could become a free agent next offseason.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Lions have signed wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: The contract is basically a four-year, $120 million extension with $77 million guaranteed, the most ever for a wide receiver in NFL history. It's a huge haul for St. Brown, who has quickly established himself as one of the best players in the NFL. After his 119/1,515/10 season last year, the Lions were going to either pay him or risk losing him after his rookie deal expired. They've clearly chosen to build around him and he should be firmly cemented as a WR1 in dynasty moving forward. St. Brown is an easy target for any team looking for a premier centerpiece to their dynasty team as the best could truly be yet to come.
Dynasty | The Steelers are not expected to pick up the fifth-year option on the contract of Justin Fields. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't much of a surprise as the Steelers would be on the hook for $25 million in his fifth year and don't even know if they want him as their long-term starter at this point. Pittsburgh is likely going to go into the season with Russell Wilson as their starter but also quietly evaluating Fields to be a possible successor. We'll see what happens but Fields looks like a player who could be a sneaky buy in the next few months leading up to the season as his ADP has tanked.
Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.
Former Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning recently talked with Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and said the Broncos are interested in him with the 2024 NFL draft beginning on Thursday night. "I know Denver is very interested in him and it sounded like a place he'd love to come to but it's a little bit out of his control," Manning told Denver Sports over the air. McCarthy played in a pro-style offense at Michigan and led the Wolverines to the national championship earlier this year. He wasn't allowed to throw the ball that much in college, but he really impressed at his pro day and has been rising up draft boards ever since. McCarthy is a candidate to go in the first five picks on Thursday night, although it seems unlikely that Denver has the ammunition to pull off a trade up into the top five this year to select McCarthy, especially after trading for Zach Wilson on Tuesday.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions All-Pro offensive tackle Penei Sewell agreed to terms on a four-year, $112 million contract extension with the Lions on Wednesday that makes him the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL. The deal also includes $85 million guaranteed. The Lions were active in keeping several key contributors of their offense around for the long term, as they also gave receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown a four-year extension that makes him the highest-paid wideout in the league for the time being. Sewell, who was drafted seventh overall in 2021 out of Oregon, has made the Pro Bowl each of the last two years and was a first-time All-Pro in 2023. The 23-year-old has been a big reason for the Lions' resurgence in the last two years.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent cornerback Xavien Howard (foot) was fully cleared for football activities earlier in April, his doctor informed teams in a letter. Howard is currently a free agent and battled a foot injury last year that limited him to 13 games with the Miami Dolphins. In those 13 games, he had 45 tackles (36 solo), an interception and 12 passes defended. Now that the 30-year-old defensive back appears to be fully healthy, he should be able to sign with another team in advance of the 2024 season this fall. The four-time Pro Bowler was a second-round pick by the Dolphins in 2016 out of Baylor and has a total of 331 tackles (258 solo), two sacks, eight tackles for loss, 29 interceptions (two returned for touchdowns), 95 passes defended, four forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries (two returned for TDs) in his eight years in Miami.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers did a simple restructure of the salary of pass-rusher Alex Highsmith's contract on Wednesday to create more than $7 million in salary cap space, according to a source. The Steelers will convert a portion of Highsmith's base salary in 2024 into a signing bonus. The 26-year-old former third-round pick in 2020 out of Charlotte has put up 21.5 sacks in the last two years and had 57 tackles (34 solo), seven sacks, eight tackles for loss, 18 QB hits, two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) and two forced fumbles in 17 regular-season starts in 2023 in his fourth year in the league. Along with All-Pro pass-rusher T.J. Watt, Highsmith is a key member of the Steelers' defense moving forward.
From RotoBaller
The Baltimore Ravens signed wide receiver Rashod Bateman to an undisclosed contract extension on Wednesday that ties him to the team through the 2026 season. Bateman was able to stay healthy in 2023, but he was overshadowed by rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers and finished with a disappointing 32 catches for 367 yards and just one touchdown on 56 targets in 16 regular-season games (12 starts) in his third year in the league. The 24-year-old former 27th overall pick in 2021 out of Minnesota hasn't lived up to his first-round billing and has found the end zone just four times in three years. The Ravens continue to say that Bateman is going to have a bigger role in the passing attack in 2024, but fantasy managers will want to see it before they believe it.
From RotoBaller
The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't expected to pick up quarterback Justin Fields' $25 million fifth-year option, according to league sources. The Steelers acquired Fields from the Chicago Bears last month for a conditional 2025 sixth-round pick. Fields and Russell Wilson will now both be entering the last year of their contracts in 2024. Wilson is fully expected to open the 2024 campaign as the starter under center for Pittsburgh, but if he falters, Fields will get a shot to prove that he belongs with the Steelers beyond this season. The 25-year-old showed some improvement late last year with Chicago, but it wasn't enough to keep him as the franchise signal-caller in the eyes of Bears brass. Fields' fantasy stock is obviously way down entering next season, but he could become a high-upside waiver-wire pickup if Wilson is benched.
From RotoBaller
The Detroit Lions agreed to a four-year contract extension with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on Wednesday that is worth $120 million with $77 million guaranteed. The deal makes St. Brown the highest-paid receiver in the league and ties him with Miami's Tyreek Hill in average annual value ($30 million). The 24-year-old former fourth-round pick in 2021 out of USC has been an excellent value for Detroit. He's made the Pro Bowl in each of the last two seasons and put up career-highs in catches (119), targets (164), receiving yards (1,515) and touchdowns (10) in 16 regular-season games in his third year in the NFL in 2024. With Quarterback Jared Goff still peppering St. Brown with targets in 2024, he'll continue to serve as a high-end WR1 for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
The Cincinnati Bengals exercised the fifth-year option for wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase on Wednesday, as expected. Chase is now officially locked up through the 2025 season. The 24-year-old former fifth overall pick in 2021 out of LSU has made the Pro Bowl in each of his three seasons in the NFL and set a career-high with 100 catches on 145 targets for 1,216 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games in 2023, despite the fact that quarterback Joe Burrow (wrist) missed considerable time with a season-ending injury. Chase's seven touchdowns in 2023 were a career-low, but he should bounce back in that department in 2024 as long as Burrow can stay healthy all year. Chase's fantasy arrow continues to point up and he should be considered a top-tier WR1.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been in trade rumors ever since the team lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. Although general manager John Lynch has seemingly tried to shut down trade rumors, NFL insider Michael Silver said a potential trade is still "very much in play." "To this point, the 49ers have asked for a 2024 first-round pick," Silver wrote. An executive for another team reportedly said the asking price is too high, while another league general manager said he believes the 49ers might ultimately accept a second-round selection. Aiyuk's camp is reportedly asking for an average salary of around $25 million, a price that San Francisco has been unwilling to offer. The 26-year-old could be a true No. 1 wide receiver for another organization, but the target competition on the 49ers roster has made it more difficult for him to be a consistent producer.
From RotoBaller
The NFL announced on Tuesday that their review into potential tampering from the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons is ongoing and will not conclude this week. That said, any potential punishments will come after the 2024 NFL Draft and will not affect this year's draft order. The Falcons are being investigated for allegedly making contact with quarterback Kirk Cousins before they were allowed to, while the Eagles are facing similar circumstances with running back Saquon Barkley. The Miami Dolphins lost their 2023 first-round pick over attempts to acquire quarterback Tom Brady and coach Sean Payton in 2019 while they were active members of other organizations. That said, Atlanta and Philadelphia could be handed similar punishments in future drafts if they are found to have engaged in illegal tampering.
From RotoBaller
Free-agent quarterback Logan Woodside signed with the Cincinnati Bengals on Tuesday, the team announced on X. The former Toledo signal-caller was selected by the Bengals in the 2018 NFL Draft, but he was waived before his rookie season began. He then signed with the Tennessee Titans but lasted just a few weeks with the organization before spending time with the San Antonio Commanders of the AAF. He made his way back to the NFL with Tennessee for three and half years before one and a half years with the Atlanta Falcons. The 29-year-old has completed just four passes for 34 yards in his professional career, so it'd be a surprise if he beat out Jake Browning for the QB2 job behind Joe Burrow.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos have picked up the fifth-year option on Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II, meaning he will remain under contract through the 2025 NFL season. Since being selected by Denver with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Alabama, Surtain has earned two trips to the Pro Bowl and one first-team All-Pro honor. In 50 career games, he has racked up 187 tackles (150 solo), one forced fumble, seven interceptions, and 36 pass deflections. The Broncos are in an interesting time for the organization with Sean Payton at the helm, and the roster needs major reinforcements. However, they have their true No. 1 cornerback locked in for at least the next two seasons.
From RotoBaller
The NFL reinstated Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Isaiah Rodgers Sr. from his year-long suspension on Tuesday for violating the league's policy on gambling. Rodgers was with the Indianapolis Colts when he was suspended on June 29 but was released by the team later that day and signed with the Eagles in August. Rodgers said bets were made from his account for people who lived in Florida, where online sports betting at that time remained illegal. At the time of his suspension, Rodgers had placed more than 100 bets, including some on Colts' games. In his three seasons in Indy, Rodgers had three interceptions and 10 passes defensed while also playing on special teams as a kick and punt returner. The Eagles are hoping he can provide them with some secondary depth after their defense last year was highly disappointing.
From RotoBaller
