Lineup Prep: Divisional Round Games

Wed Jan 19 10:09am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

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Rodgers could repeat big game


I sure hope the games this weekend are more entertaining than last week. It has to, right? And on paper, these games sure seems like some good ones. I am having a hard time picking all four. I really think all teams playing this weekend could win, including the road teams. This should make for some great football. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

I would temper my expectations for Derrick Henry if he plays this week. He is returning from a major foot injury and I would look for the Titans to ease him into action after his long layoff. I think it will be more of a timeshare with D’Onta Foreman. And if the Titans win, Henry might be unleashed more the following week.

I’m not sure what the heck happened got Kyler Murray last week. He was awful. He looked rattled and played like a rookie in his first NFL game. It was a disturbing performance. Murray is going to have a lot of doubters going forward until he wins a big game on the big stage. He needs to let the game slow down and make much better decisions. His interception in his end zone was as bad as it gets. Here is to hoping he can put that one behind him and learn from hit. He certainly has the ability to be one of the best quarterbacks in football.

The Cowboys head-scratching quarterback draw as time was running out is going to be examined all offseason. Head coach Mike McCarthy has had a lot of time management issues over the years, though, so this strange play call fits his resume. I don’t think the Cowboys will fire him over this, but he is going to be on a real short leash going forward. And if the Cowboys lose both coordinators this offseason, which is possible, there is going to be even more pressure on McCarthy. He is not in a good spot.

I think Jimmy Garoppolo proved last week why the 49ers took a quarterback in last year’s draft. He has all the tools but just makes some costly mistakes at key times. The 49ers were in control of that game last weekend until Garoppolo threw a terrible pick six, putting the Cowboys right back into the game. He is likely going to be starting somewhere next year, but expect more up and down production in that starting role.

There are rumors swirling the Vikings are going to shop Kirk Cousins this offseason. I know he can play poorly at bad times, but his overall production is really good. If I were the Vikings, I would hold onto him. But if he is dealt, I think the Broncos would be a great fit. I think Denver is setup similar to the Vikings with a good back and two top-notch receivers. Cousins could be a huge upgrade for the Broncos and help those young receivers get a lot better in a hurry. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

There are a lot of quarterbacks that are making a strong case to be ranked first overall next season. I don’t think there is a clear-cut favorite, showing how good the position is right now. Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are my top candidates to rank first for 2022. And I’m not leaning towards any of them at the moment. I even left out Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers, who I think you could make a case for first overall. This position is crazy deep right now.

HOT PLAYS

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals. Chase hit the 100-yard mark in his first playoff game, catching nine passes for 116 yards on 12 targets. He has 100-yard games three of four and double-digit targets three of those games. He is getting a ton of looks and producing big numbers with all those chances. Expect more of the same this week against the Titans, a team that allowed the second most fantasy points to receiver curing the regular season.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Rodgers played at an MVP level once again this season, finishing with 40 total touchdowns to just four interceptions. He has at least 22 fantasy points six of his last seven games. He is setup for another big game against the 49ers this week. In Week 3 against San Francisco, Rodgers was 23-of-33 for 261 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. He scored 22.1 fantasy points.

Titans rushing game. It looks like Derrick Henry has a chance to return this week. He might be eased into action in his first game back in a long time, but you have to like his potential if he gets double-digit touches. He gets a Bengals defense that allowed the 11th most fantasy points to running backs during the regular season. D’Onta Foreman also is a good play, having played very well in a lead role for the Titans. Foreman has 100-yard games three of six. He also has touchdowns three of those games.

COLD PLAYS 

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon has not done a whole lot in recent weeks. He has fewer than 70-rushing yards six straight games. He has less than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. It could be more tough sledding for him this week against a Titans team that is bad against the pass but good against the run. The Titans allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and ranked second overall against the run.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Hill was banged up late in the year, causing his numbers to slip a little. He has fewer than 60 yards four straight games and five of seven. He did find the end zone last week but had just 57 yards. He still isn’t making those big plays just yet. Hill is a guy you have to play but it might be another ho-hum game for him against the Bills. He had seven receptions for 63 yards against the Bills in Week 5. Buffalo allowed the fewest fantasy points to receiver this season.

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. Garoppolo led his team to a road win last week but was a little shaky in victory. He didn’t even throw for 200 yards and failed to score a touchdown. He has not topped 20 fantasy points since Week 14. He is not a recommended fantasy play on the road against a Packers team that was 10th overall against the pass.

SLEEPERS

Van Jefferson, WR, Rams. Jefferson caught just a pass last week but it was a big one, gaming 41 yards. He has made a lot of big plays this year, having four games with 15-plus fantasy points. With the Bucs focusing on stopping Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jefferson could get some favorable coverages. It would not surprise to see him make some big plays in the passing game. The Bucs were just 21st against the pass this season.

Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills. Davis actually led the Bills in snaps last week at receiver, playing 71 percent of the snaps. He scored a touchdown, catching two passes for 41 yards on three targets. He has been getting more and more playing time as the season progressed and has turned into  top red-zone target for the Bills. He has a chance to score again this week in what should be a high-scoring game. The Chiefs allowed the 12th most fantasy points to receivers during the regular season.

Anthony Firkser, TE, Titans. Firkser did not have the breakout season many expected, but did finally show some signs of life late in the year. He had touchdowns each of his last two games, scoring at least 11 fantasy points each of those games. Firkser had double-digit fantasy points three of his last seven games. He might find the end zone again this week against the Bengals, a team that has struggled against tight ends. Cincinnati allowed the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bengals/Titans, Rams/Bucs, Bills/Chiefs.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Drake Maye Apr 25 6:40pm CT
Drake Maye

Per a league source, the current expectation is that the New England Patriots will sit tight at No. 3 overall in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday night and take North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye. The New York Giants (No. 6) and Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) had been linked to a potential trade up to No. 3, but the Patriots unsurprisingly have been asking for a lot in return. If the Patriots do stay in the third spot, their next challenge will be getting Maye ready after he showed plenty of inconsistencies and shaky mechanics in his final year with the Tar Heels. In an ideal world for the Pats, Maye would sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe in 2024 and then be ready to go as the team's starter under center in 2025. The Patriots traded former first-rounder Mac Jones to the Jaguars this offseason.

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J.J. McCarthy Apr 25 6:40pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The current expectation is that the Minnesota Vikings will stay put at pick No. 11 overall in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night, and that Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be on the board when they're on the clock. The Vikings added an extra first-round pick (No. 23) to aid a potential jump into the top five to take a franchise signal-caller, but they may not need to do that after all. The Denver Broncos have been subtly linked to McCarthy as well, and they'd only have to jump from No. 12 to No. 10 to cut in front of Minnesota. McCarthy has also been linked to the New York Giants (No. 6) in recent days, but that's believed to have been a smokescreen. The Vikings are desperate for a new QB after failing to re-sign Kirk Cousins in free agency.

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Xavier Worthy Apr 25 5:40pm CT
Xavier Worthy

The Kansas City Chiefs have really been working to see if they can move up from No. 32 in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft. The belief around the league is that the Chiefs moving up from No. 32 would be for one of the speed wide receivers in this talented draft class at the position. It makes sense given the fact that the Chiefs are expecting second-year wideout Rashee Rice to be suspended for multiple games in 2024 after his involvement in a car accident that involved injuries. Even with Rice in the fold, KC has the need to bolster their receiving corps behind Rice and aging tight end Travis Kelce. If the Chiefs do pull off a trade up in the latter portion of the first round, they could be targeting Texas receiver Xavier Worthy.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Apr 25 5:30pm CT
Trevor Lawrence

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Drake Maye Apr 25 5:20pm CT
Drake Maye

ESPN's Jeff Darlington reports that the Minnesota Vikings are very tense with the first round of the 2024 NFL draft just hours away from starting on Thursday night as they look to trade up to No. 3 with the New England Patriots in an effort to take a quarterback of the future. The Vikings currently sit at the No. 11 pick and were unable to re-sign quarterback Kirk Cousins in the offseason. The player that has fascinated them throughout the pre-draft process has been North Carolina QB Drake Maye, but there is serious competition for the No. 3 pick, including the Patriots themselves. If Minnesota can't get Maye at No. 3, they'd likely need to jump the Giants at No. 6 in order to get Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy. If they whiff on Maye and McCarthy, Washington's Michael Penix Jr. could be the fallback option for the Vikes.

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Brandon Aiyuk Apr 25 4:20pm CT
Brandon Aiyuk

The San Francisco 49ers have been in trade rumors regarding star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk all offseason, but NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports the team has also talked with teams about trading fellow star wideout Deebo Samuel. Russini said one of the teams the 49ers have talked with currently holds a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, so a blockbuster deal could be in the works. Aiyuk is reportedly asking for more money than the 49ers are willing to give him, while Samuel has been in the trade rumor circles for multiple seasons. With high-priced assets like George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner on the roster, the organization will have to make moves in order to re-sign quarterback Brock Purdy in the near future. If one of the wideouts is traded, they should retain plenty of fantasy value with their new team.

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Jim Harbaugh Apr 25 4:10pm CT
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Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham has seemingly been a rising prospect as the 2024 NFL draft approaches, and NFL draft expert Todd McShay suggested he could be the first offensive lineman off the board on Thursday. Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt has been the popular choice to take that honor, but McShay believes the Los Angeles Chargers could draft Latham over Alt with the No. 5 overall pick. Latham played right tackle for the Crimson Tide, making him a perfect fit on the other side of stud left tackle Rashawn Slater. Los Angeles has been one of the trickiest teams to predict during this draft cycle, and new head coach Jim Harbaugh could choose to go an unconventional route.

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Anthony Richardson Apr 25 4:00pm CT
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The Indianapolis Colts hold the No. 15 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, and Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz reports the team has done a ton of pre-draft work on the wide receiver position, and they are interested in Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. The organization is likely trying to surround quarterback Anthony Richardson with as much pass-catching talent as possible, so upgrading his pass-catchers behind Michael Pittman Jr. makes sense. Youngsters Alec Pierce and Josh Downs have shown flashes of upside, but they are far from stud wideouts based on their early-career results. The Colts might be able to land LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr. with the No. 15 selection, but they could also look to trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze. Additionally, the team has not had a tight end reach the 400-yard mark since 2019, so the upside of Bowers could be intriguing.

From RotoBaller

Caleb Williams Apr 25 3:50pm CT
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The Chicago Bears are expected to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, but they are willing to trade down from the No. 9 overall selection, according to Dianna Russini of The Athletic. Chicago only has four total picks in this year's draft, so moving down to acquire more selections makes plenty of sense. The team has been linked to Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner, and UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu if they stay put, but the options become plentiful if they decide to move down the board. QB-needy teams like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders could be potential trade partners. Quarterbacks Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy could still be available at that spot.

From RotoBaller

J.J. McCarthy Apr 25 3:40pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings secured an additional first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft via a trade with the Houston Texans in March. The organization held the No. 11 overall pick after finishing 7-10 in 2023, and they sent a bundle of picks to acquire the No. 23 overall selection from Houston (via Cleveland Browns). Many believe the Vikings are trying to use their two picks to move into the range to select a quarterback, and NFL insider Peter Schrager projects the Titans to be that trade partner. Tennessee holds the No. 7 selection, which could put the Vikings in range to pick Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Schrager has the Vikings making that pick and the Titans landing Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt at pick 11. There are likely multiple avenues Minnesota can take if the speculation is current, but Tennessee could be willing to trade down since they do not have a third-round selection.

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Curtis Samuel Apr 25 2:00pm CT
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It's no secret that the Buffalo Bills need to add some wide receivers in this year's NFL draft after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and losing Gabe Davis in free agency this offseason. At No. 28 overall in the first round of Thursday night's draft, the Bills would seem to be set to take a pass-catcher. However, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero thinks the draft class' depth at the receiver position could lead the Bills to wait perhaps until the second round to take a receiver, potentially adding a defensive player in the first round instead. As Buffalo's depth chart stands right now, their top three receivers are Khalil Shakir, Justin Shorter and veteran Curtis Samuel. Even if the team adds a few wideouts in this year's draft, tight end Dalton Kincaid could be Buffalo's leading receiver in 2024.

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Matthew Stafford Apr 25 1:30pm CT
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The Los Angeles Rams, who haven't picked in the first round since 2016, are calling up to try to get into the top 10 of the first round of this year's NFL draft on Thursday evening, according to sources. The Rams currently sit at pick No. 19, so it would take a lot to pull off a move into the top 10 this year. It's unclear who they might be eyeing if they were to pull it off, but the best bet would be to select Georgia pass-catching tight end Brock Bowers, who has been projected to go at 10th overall to the New York Jets in a lot of mock drafts. The Rams have also been rumored to be looking for a successor to aging quarterback Matthew Stafford, but it's unlikely they pull off a move all the way into the top five to take one of the high-end signal-callers in this year's draft. A defensive tackle is also on their draft wish list.

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Jarrett Stidham Apr 25 1:20pm CT
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The Denver Broncos are a contender to select a quarterback and potentially make a move in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft, even after trading for quarterback Zach Wilson earlier this week. Denver sits at No. 12 overall, but NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reiterated that he thinks the Broncos could trade down within the first round. They likely don't have enough draft capital to move into the top-four picks to take a high-end QB, so instead, they could move down to take a pass-rusher or even Oregon QB Bo Nix. The Broncos have been linked to Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy as well, but McCarthy's draft stock has been soaring in the lead-up to the draft, which means the Broncos would likely have to trade into the top five to get him. As of right now, Wilson is set to compete with Jarrett Stidham for the starting job under center in 2024.

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Drake Maye Apr 25 1:10pm CT
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The New York Giants have been trying to trade up to No. 3 overall with the New England Patriots in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft, with the belief being that they want to select North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, according to multiple league sources. The prevailing thought is that it's a long shot to happen, though, but the Patriots are listening to all calls. The Giants and Vikings appear to be the most aggressive teams that are trying to trade into the top five in order to take a QB of the future in this year's draft. The Patriots have been open to trading down, but so far they've reportedly not received any serious enough offers, and they are also looking for a QB of their own after trading away Mac Jones this offseason. Most pundits are expecting New England to stand pat and take Maye if LSU's Jayden Daniels goes to the Commanders at No. 2.

From RotoBaller

Jamin Davis Apr 25 1:10pm CT
Jamin Davis

The Washington Commanders are declining the fifth-year contract option of linebacker Jamin Davis, according to a source. It's been heading this way for on and off-field reasons. The plan in 2024 is to have the athletically gifted Davis become a "hybrid" defender, which should translate to less pass coverage and more attempts to rush the quarterback. Davis played his rookie season in 2021 at Mike linebacker before moving to the off-ball role in the team's 4-2-5 base defense. According to Pro Football Focus, he tied for the highest yards per catch allowed (12.1) last year and ranked fourth-worst in average depth of target (5.5) because of his limited coverage instincts. The 25-year-old former 19th overall pick out of Kentucky has just seven sacks in his three seasons, but he could be more productive in that category if he's rushing the passer more in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Ja'Marr Chase Apr 25 7:24am CT
Ja'Marr Chase

Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.

J.J. McCarthy Apr 24 10:50pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

When asked by Rich Eisen if he has any idea on where he's going to end up in this week's NFL draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy hinted at the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the first round on Thursday night. "I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I've spent the most time with. They're a phenomenal staff," McCarthy said. The young QB's stock has been rising rapidly ever since his pro-day workout. Reports suggest the Giants and Vikings could be in a raise to trade up to select McCarthy, who is attractive because of his experience running a pro-style offense in college. With Daniel Jones (knee) coming off a torn ACL and with no guaranteed money owed to him beyond 2024, the G-Men have done their due diligence on QBs in this year's draft and feel like a lock to take one at some point this week.

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Bo Nix Apr 24 8:20pm CT
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Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.

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Michael Penix Jr. Apr 24 8:10pm CT
Michael Penix Jr.

The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.

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Drake Maye Apr 24 8:00pm CT
Drake Maye

New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.

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