Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 23 9:32am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Tua is setup for another big week


Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. And my Thanksgiving Lineup Prep is my favorite column to write. I like to list all the things I’m thankful for fantasy wise. It is a fun column to write and I’m excited to get it started. So without further ado, here we go. . .  .

I am thankful for rebound seasons. I have tons of stock in Saquon Barkley this year and thrilled to see him running like the Saquon of old. Sure, it was a little risk to put a ton of stock in him to get it going again, but sometimes you have to take some risks if you hope to hit it big. And right now, all those Barkley owners are feeling pretty good about taking him come draft day.

I am thankful for different draft strategies working for fantasy owners. There isn’t a set strategy that works every time come draft day, which I think makes this game that much more fun to play. You can use all different strategies and still have success. I think this year is a great example of this. The running back spot has been really frustrating this year, but the ones that have played well have played really well. So if you got a Austin Ekeler or Barkley, you are probably having a good season. But the teams that avoided running back early come draft day probably are having plenty of success as well with Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson having huge seasons. So going receiver early has worked as well, especially if you were able to nab a guy like Dameon Pierce or Josh Jacobs later in your drafts. And those owners that took Travis Kelce in the first or second round have enjoyed plenty of success as well as he is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the tight ends this year. So as you can see, all sorts of different strategies have led to success this year. It seems the case every year, making this game so fun to play. 

I am thankful that players and the NFL are embracing the fantasy community. You see so much more engagement from players when it comes to fantasy football, especially a guy like Austin Ekeler. This is great news for the fantasy industry and players. This game should continue to evolve and flourish with guys like Ekeler leading the way as a strong advocate for the game. 

I am thankful the NFL trade market is a lot more exciting these days. I can’t remember a deadline that brought so much activity as this past year. It was great to see a guy like Christian McCaffrey get a fresh start in a much better offense. It is rare to see such a big-name player get traded in the NFL, but maybe this year will open the door for that to happen more often during the season. It sure made for an exciting deadline this year. Let’s hope that is the norm going forward. 

I am thankful for all the up to the minute info you can find on Twitter when it comes to injuries, trades, and any other breaking news that can impact your fantasy lineup. It is amazing how quickly news travels these days. This makes things so much easier than it used to when it comes to setting your lineups and rankings for the week. Say what you want about Twitter, but it has been a huge blessing to the fantasy community. Just a great way to engage and get up to the minute information. 

I am thankful for underdog stories. It is great to see players exceed expectations and help fantasy teams when no on thought that might be the case. The big one this year is Geno Smith. He is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and outplaying the player he replaced, Russell Wilson, by a wide margin. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming outside of Smith himself. It has been a great story. 

I am thankful for rookies. Everyone loves a rookie, but especially a rookie that helps fantasy teams. And there are plenty of rookies that are making an impact this year. That seems to be the case every year, but rookie running backs have been especially good this year despite none of them being super hyped come draft day. Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall look to be top fantasy players for years to come. 

Lastly, I am thankful for you, the users of RealTime Fantasy Sports. This is a great community to be a part of and I am super thankful to be just a small part of that. Thank you so much for helping make RTSports the best fantasy football community on the web. Have a great Thanksgiving!

News and Notes: The Broncos released running back Melvin Gordon on Monday. This was a surprise, but fumbling issues and a lack of consistency likely ended his time in Denver. Latavius Murray should get first shot to start for Denver going forward. . . . .The Panthers named Sam Darnold  the starting quarterback for Week 12. He takes over for Baker Mayfield, who has struggled much of the year. . . . .The Rams released running back Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. This was a bit of a surprise, leaving Cam Akers and Kyren Williams the likely players to split the carries at running back for the Rams going forward. 

HOT PLAYS

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys. The return of Ezekiel Elliott didn’t slow down Pollard. He still played 54 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Elliott. Pollard has 21-plus fantasy point three straight games. He has topped 100 total yards four straight games. And in Week 3 against the Giants, who he is playing this week, Pollard had a 100-yard rushing game. He is a must start for fantasy teams right now. 

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings. Hockenson didn’t have a great game his last time out, but the entire Vikings offense was a mess. The good new is he was still targeted nine times in the game. He has at least nine targets three straight games with the Vikings. He is getting a ton of weekly looks with his new team. He has double-digit fantasy points five times this season, showing he is capable of the big game. He can rebound this week against the Patriots, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. New England allows the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa has become about a must start for fantasy teams on a weekly basis. He is playing his best football right now, being third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has three straight games with three touchdown passes and hit the 300-yard mark two of those games. He has 26-plus fantasy points three consecutive games. He can reach those numbers again this week against the Texans, a team that allows 23 points per game. 

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker had one of his worst games of the season since becoming starter his last time out, rushing 10 times for just 17 yards. But the good news was he was still involved in the passing game, catching six passes for 55 yards on eight targets. This really helps his fantasy floor. He has at least 12 fantasy points six straight games. Look for him to get back to his big ways against a bad Raiders defense in Week 12. Las Vegas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin isn’t having quite the season most hoped, but it hasn’t been all bad by any means, especially since Taylor Heinicke has become the starter. He has 100-yard games two of four and been targeted at least eight times five straight. He has 17-plus fantasy points three of five games. He remains capable of the huge game any given week. And a matchup against the Falcons this week is a great one for McLaurin. Atlanta allows the most fantasy points to receivers and are 29th overall against the pass. 

COLD PLAYS 

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones has played better football lately, but still hasn’t been great all year. He has six games with fewer than 20 fantasy points. And one of his favorite targets in the passing game, Wan’Dale Robinson, is now out for the season. This is not good news for Jones, especially this week against a very good Cowboys defense. Jones scored just 16.7 fantasy points in Week 3 against Dallas. He passed for just 196 yards and didn’t score a touchdown. Go with better options in Week 12. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara has been pretty quiet lately, especially on the ground. He has fewer than 50-rushing yard three straight games. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He isn’t even getting enough work in the passing game to make up for those poor rushing totals. It could be more of the same this week against a very good 49ers defense. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank first overall against the run, allowing just 81.1-rushing yards per game. 

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers. Johnson is super talented but just isn’t getting it done for fantasy teams right now. He is not stretching the field at all, leading to poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points four of five games. He has less than 50 yards four of those games. His season high in yards is just 84. He is a hard player to trust, especially this week against the Colts. Indy allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank seventh overall against the pass.  

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon had one of his worst games of the season last week, scoring just 9.2 fantasy points. He ran seven times for just 20 yards. He actually has fewer than 30-rushing yards two of three games. The Bengals are having some issues running the ball and it could be more of the same this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and rank second against the run. Tennesse has not allowed 100-rushing yards since Week 2. 

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is finally starting to show some signs of life as the Bears offense is heating up. He has scores two of three games. The concern is he has fewer than 50 yards two of those games. He still isn’t getting a ton of yards or catches despite the Bears playing well. And now Justin Fields is hurt and iffy to play, which is a big concern for Mooney. He might be a player to avoid this week against the Jets, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank 10th overall against the pass. 

SLEEPERS

Kalif Raymond, WR, Lions. Raymond has played at least 82% of the snaps six straight games. He is getting a lot of playing time in the Lions offense. And he has at least three receptions three straight games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent. He has a chance for a lot of targets once again against the Bills. The Lions are likely going to be playing from behind this game, needing to throw often. Raymond could be a sneaky WR3 for fantasy teams in Week 12. 

Rachaad White, RB, Bucs. White played more snaps than Leonard Fournette his last time out for the first time all season. White played 64 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Fournette. There could be a changing of the guard going on in Tampa. And White is playing well with his chances, hitting the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career his last game. If he gets that workload again this week against the Browns, White can produce big once again. Cleveland allows the second most fantasy points to running backs. 

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts. Campbell is a different receiver with Matt Ryan at the helm at quarterback. He has 12 receptions his last two games and had 17 receptions during a two-game stretch with Ryan starting earlier this season. Ryan targeted him 23 times during those two games. He has real fantasy value with Ryan starting in Indy. He should do well again this week against the Steelers, a team playing better defensively but still allow the second most fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh is dead last against the pass, allowing 272.1-passing yards per game. 

Foster Moreau, TE, Raiders. Moreau hasn’t done a whole lot in a starting role for the Raiders, but does have a double-digit game two weeks ago against the Colts. He has at least four targets four of five games. He is getting some weekly chances and producing decent number. He could hit that double-digit fantasy point total this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is not good against the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Moreau could be a good streaming option for fantasy teams. 

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard actually played the most snaps for the Panthers last week, playing 40 percent compared to 39 percent for D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard had just six touches in the game, but two were receptions, which helps his fantasy floor. He is the better pass catcher of the two, which helps him get on the field. The Panthers could struggle to run the ball against a good Broncos defense, so Hubbard could be on the field more once again as the Panthers might throw the ball more often. He could be worth a look in deeper formats for fantasy teams. 

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bills/Lions, Chargers/Cardinals, Raiders/Seahawks, Packers/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: Bears/Jets, Broncos/Panthers, Steelers/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Player Notes
Geno Smith Mar 27 8:10pm ET
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The Seattle Seahawks are looking to make some additions to their offensive line this offseason. Recently, Seahawks general manager John Schneider said the team has a lot to figure out on the o-line. This team is without left guard Damien Lewis and right guard Phil Haynes who both left for free agency. Possibly, the Seahawks use the 16th overall pick in the draft to add some offensive line. It appears Seattle is still looking to compete next season with Geno Smith slated to be under center. Most of the Seahawks offensive weapons are back, but this team could be in serious trouble if they don't patch up their o-line soon.

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Nate Sudfeld Mar 27 8:00pm ET
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The Detroit Lions have re-signed quarterback Nate Sudfeld on Wednesday. The 30-year-old served as the backup to Jared Goff during the 2022 season. He was slated to compete with Teddy Bridgewater, but he has retired this offseason. That being said, Sudfeld figures to compete with Hendon Hooker for the backup job in Detroit next season. The former sixth-round pick has played in six games since debuting in 2017. Sudfeld won't offer any fantasy value heading into next season.

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Malik Nabers Mar 27 4:50pm ET
Malik Nabers

Former LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers impressed at the University's Pro Day on Wednesday, running an unofficial 4.35 40-yard dash and excelling in both the vertical jump (42") and broad jump (10'9"). The 20-year-old is coming off a spectacular junior campaign consisting of catching 89 passes for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns. His excellent athletic testing numbers certainly won't hurt his draft stock, and many analysts believe he could be taken ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft next month. Nabers has visited or will visit with the Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, New York Jets, and New York Giants this week.

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Jadeveon Clowney Mar 27 4:30pm ET
Jadeveon Clowney

Free-agent edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney is signing a two-year, $24 million contract with the Carolina Panthers, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The 2014 No. 1 overall pick spent last season with the Baltimore Ravens, and it was one of the best campaigns of his career. He tied a career-high with 9.5 sacks and did not miss a game for the first time since 2017. The 31-year-old still has plenty of ability, but his surroundings in Carolina won't be as strong as they were with the Ravens. The South Carolina native is now closer to home, and he'll look to help the struggling franchise accelerate its rebuild in 2024.

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Jalyn Holmes Mar 27 3:20pm ET
Jalyn Holmes

The New York Jets re-signed defensive end Jalyn Holmes to an undisclosed deal on Wednesday. The Minnesota Vikings originally took Holmes with their fourth-round selection (102nd overall) in 2018 out of Ohio State. He spent the first three years of his career in Minnesota before one-year stops with the New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears and Jets each of the last three seasons. In just five games in New York in 2023, the 28-year-old pass-rusher had five tackles (three solo) and one sack. Holmes' first defensive snaps for the Jets last year didn't come until the regular season finale. He will be competing for a depth role once again on the team's defensive line in training camp this summer.

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Neville Hewitt Mar 27 3:10pm ET
Neville Hewitt

The Houston Texans and free-agent linebacker Neville Hewitt, who led the league in 2023 in special teams tackles, reached an agreement on an undisclosed one-year deal on Wednesday, according to a source. In 16 regular-season games (zero starts) last year in his third year with the Texans, Hewitt had 14 tackles (eight solo). The 30-year-old was a standout on special teams but played just four defensive snaps and is unlikely to be a big part of Houston's defense again in 2024. In his nine-year NFL career with the Texans, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, Hewitt has recorded a total of 440 tackles (284 solo), 7.5 sacks, 22 tackles for loss, 19 QB hits, three interceptions, 13 passes defended, two forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 129 games (44 starts).

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Sam Franklin Mar 27 3:10pm ET
Sam Franklin

The Carolina Panthers re-signed safety and special teams ace Sam Franklin on an undisclosed one-year deal on Wednesday, according to a source. Franklin, a former undrafted free agent out of Temple, began his NFL career in 2020 with the Panthers and has spent all four of his NFL seasons with the organization. The 28-year-old defensive back had a career-high 30 tackles (20 solo) and an interception returned for a touchdown in 17 games (four starts) in his fourth year in Carolina in 2023. Franklin played 310 snaps on special teams and will likely continue in that role in his fifth year with the team in 2024. In his four NFL campaigns, Franklin has just 97 tackles (69 solo), one sack, the interception returned for a score, five passes defended and a force fumble in 64 games (nine starts).

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Jayden Daniels Mar 27 3:00pm ET
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The Las Vegas Raiders may be targeting a quarterback that can escape the pocket and pick up chunk gains with his legs in the upcoming NFL draft. When asked what type of QB gives opposing defenses the most problems from his experience as a former linebacker, head coach Anthony Pierce said, "A damn runner." The Raiders are scheduled to meet with LSU QB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels on Wednesday after his pro-day workout. Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns for the Tigers last year and also ran for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns. In order to snag Daniels, the Raiders will likely have to move up from 13th overall in the first round, and the team has expressed the willingness to do what it takes to make that happen. Pierce recruited Daniels out of Southern California five years ago to play at Arizona State, so he's very familiar with him.

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Talanoa Hufanga Mar 27 3:00pm ET
Talanoa Hufanga

The San Francisco 49ers expect safety Talanoa Hufanga (knee) to return from his ACL injury "sometime in training camp" this summer, according to head coach Kyle Shanahan. The head coach also sounded optimistic about Hufanga's ability to return to 100 percent of his old self. The Niners would like to add a safety, but they told recent visitor Julian Blackmon that a new addition wouldn't necessarily be guaranteed a starting spot in 2024. Hufanga probably won't be ready to go for Day 1 of training camp as he works his way back from a torn ACL that he suffered in Week 11 of 2023. The 24-year-old defensive back is one of the rising young options at his position in IDP fantasy leagues when healthy. Hufanga had 52 tackles and three interceptions last year before suffering his season-ending injury.

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Tank Bigsby Mar 27 2:50pm ET
Tank Bigsby

It's clear that the Jacksonville Jaguars want to keep lead running back Travis Etienne Jr. fresh for the entire season in 2024. In the final six games in 2023, the Jaguars averaged just 79 yards per game on the ground. They finished 23rd overall with 96.8 yards per game on the ground. In an effort to keep Etienne fresher, part of the team's plan in the run game is getting second-year back Tank Bigsby more involved. He played just 141 snaps in his rookie season, carrying the ball 50 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns. A couple of fluky turnovers ensured he didn't see much more time down the stretch. "We have to get Tank going, the bottom line. He is too good, that's why we drafted him. I think early he had some 'what is that' type plays for whatever reason right or wrong. Again, in and out of the lineup," said head coach Doug Pederson.

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Josh Reynolds Mar 27 2:40pm ET
Josh Reynolds

Former Detroit Lions wide receiver Josh Reynolds signed a two-year deal worth up to $14 million with the Denver Broncos on Wednesday, according to a source. The Broncos have been one of the most quiet teams in free agency this year, with Reynolds being their biggest addition by far. The 29-year-old will help replace Jerry Jeudy, who was traded to the Cleveland Browns. Reynolds caught 40 of his 64 targets last year in Detroit for 608 yards and five touchdowns in 17 regular-season games. Courtland Sutton will remain Denver's unquestioned No. 1 wideout, but Reynolds has a chance to be their No. 2 if he can beat out Tim Patrick (Achilles) and Marvin Mims Jr. in training camp. With either quarterback Jarrett Stidham or a rookie running the Broncos' offense in 2024, there won't be much fantasy upside for Reynolds in his new home.

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Cordarrelle Patterson Mar 27 3:13am ET
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Dynasty | The Steelers have signed utility player Cordarrelle Patterson. Dynasty Analysis: A lightning rod in dynasty leagues seemingly for his entire career, Patterson lands with the Steelers hours after the NFL adopted new kickoff return rules. It's going to be interesting to see just how Pittsburgh employs him as he can obviously return kicks but also help out at running back or receiver. In the end, it's hard to see much value from Patterson, especially in dynasty leagues. However, he's certainly a player to monitor as his role becomes more and more clear.

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Uchenna Nwosu Mar 26 11:20pm ET
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Seattle Seahawks president of football operations John Schneider said that both offensive tackle Abraham Lucas (knee) and linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (pectoral) are on track to be ready for the start of the 2024 season. Schneider is unsure if safety Jerrick Reed II (knee) will be ready, but he did say that Reed's rehab has gone well. Lucas, 25, had knee surgery at the end of last season, but he should be ready to go as the team's right tackle later this fall. Nwosu, 27, suffered a torn pectoral muscle in 2023 that limited him to six games. Getting the former second-round pick in 2018 out of USC back will be big news for Seattle's pass rush in 2024, as Nwosu picked up career-highs in combined tackles (66), sacks (9.5), tackles for loss (12) and QB hits (26) in 17 starts in 2022 in his first year in Seattle.

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Mazi Smith Mar 26 11:10pm ET
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Dallas Cowboys nose tackle Mazi Smith (shoulder) carried a four- to six-month timetable after having shoulder surgery shortly after last season, but he is expected to be ready for training camp this summer. As long as Smith doesn't encounter any setbacks as he rehabs his shoulder this offseason, the 22-year-old should be ready for training camp at the end of the July and for the start of the 2024 season. After being taken 26th overall in the first round last year out of Michigan, Smith played in all 17 regular-season games (three starts) and recorded only 13 tackles (nine solo) and one sack in a depth role. He could carve out a bigger role on the interior of Dallas' defensive line in Year 2, but Smith isn't going to be on the fantasy radar in IDP leagues.

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Luke Schoonmaker Mar 26 11:00pm ET
Luke Schoonmaker

Dallas Cowboys tight end Luke Schoonmaker (shoulder) had shoulder surgery recently but is "all systems go" for training camp this summer, according to a person familiar with the situation. Schoonmaker played in all 17 regular-season games in his rookie season in 2023 after being taken in the second round out of Michigan, but he didn't do much behind Jake Ferguson, catching only eight of 15 targets for 65 yards and two touchdowns. However, his shoulder injury may have been partially to blame. The 25-year-old could have a bigger role in his sophomore campaign in Dallas, but as long as Ferguson stays healthy, it's hard to envision Schoonmaker being very attractive for fantasy managers on a weekly basis. As long as Ferguson is healthy, Schoonmaker will be a blocker over a receiver.

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Christian Watson Mar 26 10:50pm ET
Christian Watson

The Green Bay Packers feel that they have a better grasp of where wide receiver Christian Watson (hamstring) stands after he underwent a body scan at the University of Wisconsin-Madison this offseason with the hope of preventing future flare-ups. Watson has battled hamstring injuries in both of his two seasons in the NFL, with the 6-foot-4, 208-pounder missing eight games in 2023, playing just 446 offensive snaps. It hasn't just been hamstring injuries for the 24-year-old, and he's played in only 23 games in his first two seasons to quickly develop an injury-prone label. But when healthy, he's caught 69 of 119 targets for 1,033 yards and 12 touchdowns, adding two rushing scores. There's intriguing upside given the nature of Green Bay's improving offense under quarterback Jordan Love, but Watson's durability makes him a risk/reward fantasy selection heading into his third year.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown Mar 26 9:10pm ET
Amon-Ra St. Brown

The Detroit Lions and star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown have been discussing a contract extension that would likely make him one of the highest-paid wide receivers in the league. St. Brown's agent and Detroit brass met last month at the NFL scouting combine to begin negotiations as it appears that both sides are motivated to get something worked out. St. Brown is heading into the final year of his rookie deal and will play at an absolute bargain price of $3.366 million in 2024. The team is making it a priority to get St. Brown and quarterback Jared Goff extended this offseason after they came just one win short of making it to the Super Bowl.

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Jared Goff Mar 26 9:00pm ET
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and the team have been discussing a contract extension this offseason. Goff's representatives and the Detroit brass have been having ongoing contract discussions this offseason as the team looks to keep him in town for the foreseeable future. A Goff extension could make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league if and when it gets done. Goff has just one year left on the four-year extension that he signed while still a member of the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions are also looking to extend star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as the team looks to keep their offensive core together moving forward.

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J.K. Dobbins Mar 26 8:50pm ET
J.K. Dobbins

Free-agent running back J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) has been cleared for football activities, according to Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Dobbins tore his Achilles tendon early in the 2023 season but reportedly looks "outstanding" as he continues his rehab efforts. The veteran running back is expected to be making visits to NFL teams soon as he looks to latch on with another team after the Baltimore Ravens let him leave as a free-agent. Dobbins' days as a lead back might be over but he could still form part of a backfield committee moving forward.

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Darious Williams Mar 26 8:20pm ET
Darious Williams

The Los Angeles Rams and free-agent cornerback Tre'Davious White intend to agree upon a one-year, $8.5 million contract according to White's agents. White will join a revamped LA secondary that recently added Darious Williams. The veteran cornerback has struggled to stay on the field in recent seasons, having appeared in just 10 total games over the past two years. White's contract with the Rams has the potential to be worth up to $10 million with incentives as he looks to bolster the Los Angeles defense.

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