Studs and Duds: Wild Card Weekend
Tue Jan 18 9:04am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Allen has monster performance
Well, that wasn’t too exciting this weekend. I had higher hopes for the games, but for the most part, the games were not very good. There was just one game decided by less than seven points. And even that game wasn’t very close for much of the game. Here is to hoping things are more competitive this coming week.
Bengals 26, Raiders 19
Fantasy Stud: Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the way at receiver for the Bengals once again. He caught nine passes for 116 yards. He also ran three times for 23 yards, giving him 139 total yards. Chase has 100-yard games two of his last three. He had a monster rookie season and looks to be a fantasy star for years to come, especially after coming up so big in his first playoff game.
Fantasy Dud: Tee Higgins. Higgins was the Bengals receiver that disappeared in this one. He had just a catch for 10 yards. Higgins was limited in practice all week because of a foot injury, so maybe this had something to do with his down game. He had a some monster games down the stretch, so this disappearing act was a bit of a surprise for fantasy owners.
Game Notes: C.J. Uzomah had a big game, catching six passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. This was his highest reception total of the season and the first time he scored since Week 7.
Darren Waller was a big part of the passing game, finished with seven receptions for 76 yards. He finally looked healthy and was a big contributor for the Raiders once again.
Bills 47, Patriots 17
Fantasy Stud: Josh Allen. Allen had a monster performance, going 21-of-25 for 308 yards and five touchdowns without a turnover. He also ran six times for 66 yards. Allen was unstoppable and the Patriots had no answer for him. He moved the offense up and down the field all night. If Allen can continue his strong play, he might be the first quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts in 2022.
Fantasy Dud: Damien Harris. Harris had nine carries for 30 yards and caught a pass for seven yards. He didn’t get the work with the Patriots down big in a hurry. He had 100-yard games each of his first two games against the Bills this year, so there were higher hopes for Harris in the playoff opener.
Game Notes: Dawson Knox was the top target for the Bills, catching five passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns. His yardage total was his second highest of the season. This was his third multiple touchdown game.
Kendrick Bourne was one of the few bright spots for the Patriots. He had seven receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Bourne had 75-plus yards two of his last three games.
Bucs 31, Eagles 15
Fantasy Stud: Mike Evans. Evans had a big game as the top option in the Bucs passing attack. He had nine receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. It was his first 100-yard game since Week 5 of the season. He has been finding the end zone on a regular basis, though, scoring 15 touchdowns now on the season.
Fantasy Dud: Miles Sanders. Sanders returned from his broken hand but had little room to run against a good Bucs rush defense. He had seven carries for just 16 yards, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. He also caught three passes for 12 yards. Sanders had an uneven season but finished well, which should help his chances to be the starter to open next year.
Game Notes: Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard split the work at running back for the Bucs. Vaughn had 17 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown. Bernard ran 13 times for 44 yards and a touchdown. Bernard was heavily involved in the passing game, catching five passes for 39 yards.
Dallas Goedert was the top target for the Eagles, having six receptions for 92 yards. Goedert had 70-plus yards four of his last five games.
49ers 23, Cowboys 17
Fantasy Stud: Deebo Samuel. Samuel continues to be a huge part of the 49ers offense in a variety of ways. He had three receptions for 38 yards and ran 10 times for 72 yards and a touchdown. He had 110 total yards and a score. Samuel has 20 or more fantasy points three of four games.
Fantasy Dud: CeeDee Lamb. Lamb caught just a pass for 21 yards in game the Cowboys threw the ball 44 times. You just expect Lamb to be more involved in the offense. Lamb had fewer than 66 yards six straight games to end his season. He didn’t have quite the breakout season most expected this year.
Game Notes: Ezekiel Elliott had his struggles on the ground once again. He had 12 carries for just 31 yards, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. You have to wonder what the Cowboys will do with Elliott next season after another disappointing year.
Elijah Mitchell finished just four yards shy of a 100-yard performance. He ran 27 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. Mitchell has at least 85-rushing yards three straight games.
Chiefs 42, Steelers 21
Fantasy Stud: Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes was his usual electrifying self in this game, going 30-of-39 for 404 yards and five touchdowns with an interception. He also ran three times for 29 yards, giving him 42.1 fantasy points. This was a season high in fantasy points for Mahomes. He is playing his best football at a good time for the Chiefs.
Fantasy Dud: Najee Harris. The Chiefs completely shut down Harris. He ran 12 times for just 29 yards and caught two passes for a negative yard. Harris also lost a fumble, scoring just 4.9 fantasy points. Harris had a big rookie year but slowed down a little late in the year, having fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of five games.
Game Notes: Jerick McKinnon got nearly all the work at running back and produced very well in a lead role. He had 12 carries for 61 yards. McKinnon also had six receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown.
Ben Roethlisberger had a decent game in his last game in the NFL. He was 29-of-44 for 215 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover.
Rams 34, Cardinals 11
Fantasy Stud: Odell Beckham. Beckham has been revitalized with his move to the Rams. He had four receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown. He also threw a 40-yard pass in the game. Beckham has scores three of four games and six of eight. He has been a dependable target for the Rams and a top red-zone threat.
Fantasy Dud: Kyler Murray. Murray was awful, looking nervous in his first ever playoff game. He was 19-of-34 for 137 yards with two interceptions. Murray threw an awful interception near his own goal line, leading to a Rams touchdown. He looked flustered the entire game and made next to no plays down the field. You just expected better from Murray, who looked completely lost much of the game.
Game Notes: Cam Akers looked really good in an expanded role, leading the Rams backs in touches. Akers ran 17 times for 55 yards and caught a pass for 40 yards. He seems completely back to full strength from his torn Achilles.
A.J. Green didn’t have a catch in this game. Christian Kirk led the way at receiver for the Cardinals, finishing with six receptions for 51 yards.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Bears made this all but a certainty when they traded Justin Fields to the Steelers earlier this off-season. Williams will immediately take over the franchise and will be in a unique situation as a rookie starter with an offense that isn't exactly lacking talent. The likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and D'Andre Swift should be enough to keep his dynasty value high even as he learns the position. Williams should be immediately installed as a low-end QB1 and an easy pick at the top of a Superflex league rookie draft.
Dynasty | The Washington Commanders selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders decided to make Daniels the face of the franchise and took him with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's hard to blame him as he put up video game numbers last season at LSU. It's difficult to see any other quarterback with a higher ceiling than Daniels has, though it's also evident there's a low floor here as well, especially considering his small frame. If he can prove his throwing ability can match his rushing talent, the sky is truly the limit, though. Daniels could find his way to the top of Superflex rookie drafts and is an easy early second rounder in conventional rookie drafts this off-season as well.
Dynasty | The New England Patriots drafted UNC quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Patriots have hit the reset button with the first pick in the post-Bill Belichick era and took Maye with the third overall selection. He should have a solid chance to take over as the starter immediately and be given every opportunity to succeed. However, there are concerns here as Maye will not exactly be given a roster full of elite talent. Maye is in danger of some really serious adversity early in his career and may need to work through it. Regardless, Maye looks like a solid Superflex pick and a second rounder in conventional formats.
Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Cardinals decided to stand pat in the draft and took Harrison with the fourth overall selection. He should immediately take over as the top option for Kyler Murray in the desert and is in place to immediately become a big factor in dynasty leagues. Simply put, Harrison has the talent, pedigree and skill set to be an immediate WR1 and should be the top overall position player taken in rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | The top Washington pass-catcher gets an upgrade at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels. Dynasty Analysis: Currently ranked as WR35 in DLF's dynasty ranks, McLaurin could get the biggest value bump at the position with the QB change. A precision passer who is also a dangerous runner, Daniels is exactly what the Commanders needed to open up the offense. McLaurin figures to benefit the most as the Heisman-winning rookie's top receiving option, and could jump more than 10 spots into low end WR2 range.
Dynasty | The New York Giants drafted LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Giants reportedly flirted with many options in the draft (including maneuvering for a quarterback) but ended up grabbing Nabers with the sixth overall pick. It's hard to blame them as Nabers could honestly be the best receiver in this class. While Daniel Jones' health and overall play is still in question, Nabers should enter the season as the top pass catcher for the Giants and makes for an easy top-three pick in conventional dynasty rookie drafts this off-season.
Dynasty | Murray gets a new WR1 with the arrival of Marvin Harrison, Jr. Dynasty Analysis: After missing half of the 2023 season rehabbing a torn ACL, and losing DeAndre Hopkins before the season and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown after the season, dynasty owners have been understandably skeptical of Murray. But the addition of Harrison gives Murray arguably the best weapon of his career. Previously ranked as QB10 with mid/late 2nd round ADP, Murray is poised to jump back into the first round for the first time since the ACL injury in 2022.
Dynasty | Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr was drafted 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Dynasty Analysis: Wow. Penix was reportedly rising up draft boards this off-season but few expected him to go in the top ten of the NFL Draft, no less to the Falcons, who had recently signed Kirk Cousins. Penix is now in place to back up Cousins for a year or more before taking over for Atlanta as their long-term answer. Unfortunately, his chance at a starting job is close to zero for this season and his draft stock in dynasty leagues is going to suffer as a result, Patience could be rewarded for dynasty managers but it's going to be tough to use a pick (and a roster spot) long-term for a lottery ticket like Penix. In short, this looks like a pick better in reality and fantasy and Penix is a serious wild card in dynasty rookie drafts as a result.
Dynasty | The fifth overall selection of left tackle Joe Alt gives Justin Herbert some much-needed blindside protection. Dynasty Analysis: Herbert still faces a lack of pass-catching weapons as of the draft's first round. But the concern of a run ultra-heavy approach under new head coach Jim Harbaugh should subside �" if only slightly �" with the arrival of Alt. Herbert has struggled with injuries over the last two seasons, facing constant pressure when he is on the field. The pocket should solidify and Herbert should have significantly more time to throw with the upgrade at left tackle.
Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 overall draft. Dynasty Analysis: Many mock drafts had put Odunze at #9 to Chicago and that's exactly where he ended up. His dynasty prospects are going to be a little cloudy early as he attempts to navigate his way to targets with the likes of Keenan Allen and DJ Moore early in his career but he has the chops to be a dominant dynasty performer in time. His career arc should match that of Caleb Williams and while the early returns could be hit and miss he still looks like a top three wide receiver and top five rookie pick this off-season.
Dynasty | The Minnesota Vikings drafted Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy with the tenth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: There was a lot of smoke about McCarthy being taken in the top five but he ended up falling to tenth pick where Minnesota was happy to scoop him up. The Vikings will likely hold an open competition between McCarthy and Sam Darnold but it certainly looks like McCarthy has been pegged as the future for the franchise. His upside is debatable in dynasty leagues as McCarthy may not be the most dynamic player in the draft but he does seem like one of the safer options. He looks like a late second or early third round pick in rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Nix ended up being the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft but the 12th overall selection, being taken by the Broncos. Denver is looking to quickly replace Russell Wilson and Head Coach Sean Payton is reportedly enamored with Nix. All of this adds up to him likely being the week one starter for Denver and gives him a decent runway to be successful. The numbers are very impressive here and Nix now has a pretty solid runway to playing time. As such, his rookie ADP is likely going to rise into the second round of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | The Las Vegas Raiders selected tight end Brock Bowers with the 13th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers slipped a little in the NFL Draft as teams maneuvered around to secure quarterbacks. In the end, he ended up being taken 13th overall to the Raiders. It's an odd fit as Las Vegas invested in Michael Mayer last season but Bowers should still have a solid chance to contribute early and often. Having a clearer path to being a true TE1 on his team would have likely solidified his spot as a top five rookie pick but this could drop him down just a smidge. Still, he has as much talent as anyone we've ever seen at the position and should have a floor that makes him very desirable in round one of rookie drafts.
Dynasty | After getting a big quarterback upgrade with the selection of Caleb Williams, Moore gets some serious competition for targets as the Bears pick Rome Odunze. Dynasty Analysis: The excitement of Williams throwing to Moore and Co. lasted all of eight picks, as the ninth overall selection of Odunze poses a threat to Moore's workload. While Odunze's downfield prowess compliments the short-mid range deployment of Keenan Allen, Odunze will directly compete with Moore for downfield and perimeter targets. Moore will continue to line up as the WR1 in the offense, but his WR16 dynasty ranking at DLF isn't likely to hold up with his diminished target share.
Dynasty | The Raiders select generational talent Brock Bowers, effectively burying Mayer and his dynasty value. Dynasty Analysis: A chalk sleeper at the TE position, Mayer was positioned for a breakout in 2023. That is, until Brock Bowers came along. The 13th overall pick is considered one of the best TE prospects in league history, and he immediately walks into the starting job in Sin City. Mayer went into the draft ranked as the dynasty TE14 on DLF, in the neighborhood of Luke Musgrave and Cole Kmet, ahead of Dalton Schultz. His ranking is likely to plummet now that he is the backup to Bowers.
Dynasty | The Jaguars drafted LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas landed in a great spot, being taken late in round one by the Jacksonville Jaguars. A true playmaker, he should have every opportunity to replace Calvin Ridley quickly in the Jaguars offense and is a candidate to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year based on his talent and opportunity. This was a solid development for his value and Thomas should have his spot as a top-6 player in rookie drafts solidified as a result.
Dynasty | Instead of drafting Jones' replacement, the Giants give him his best weapon yet in Malik Nabers. Dynasty Analysis: Seemingly in danger of losing his starting job, Daniel Jones didn't just avoid being replaced; he also got a massive weapons upgrade when WR Malik Nabers was selected sixth overall. The increase in job security �" when the Giants passed on QBs J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix �" was enough to improve upon Jones' QB26 DLF dynasty ranking. But the team invested in their quarterback even further by giving him an elite receiving weapon in Nabers. The job security and the addition of Nabers likely vaults Jones into mid-high QB2 range.
Dynasty | The Kansas City Chiefs moved up in the 2024 NFL Draft to select Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Dynasty Analysis: Worthy may have hit the fantasy lottery. A true playmaker with major league speed to burn, he will likely be asked to perform quickly with a possible suspension coming for Rashee Rice. Still, Worthy is a candidate to be overdrafted a touch as the Chiefs are no longer forced to throw as much as they used to with a much better defense now being featured. Worthy looks locked in as a pick in the top half of round one but expectations need to be realistic.
Dynasty | The San Francisco 49ers drafted Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: A major pre-draft riser, Pearsall ended up going late in round one to the San Francisco 49ers. It ends a crazy period where his workouts and a final review of his tape truly put Pearsall on the map. This is a great landing spot for him as well as it looks like the futures of both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk could be in question. While some patience may be needed here, Pearsall will be used creatively in the offense and his draft stock should rise all the way up to the second round as a result.
The San Francisco 49ers selected Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. The 49ers have questions about their top three receivers in Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings, with Aiyuk and Samuel being potential trade options during the draft, so the selection of the 23-year-old Pearsall makes sense for the organization. Pearsall tested very well at the scouting combine with a 42.5-inch vertical jump. He was an intriguing prospect to begin with and now gains some steam going to San Fran, especially if the Niners eventually trade one of Aiyuk or Samuel. Pearsall is old for a rookie, but he can make plays all over the field and has strong hands and great body control. Depending on what happens with Aiyuk/Samuel, Pearsall could have some sleeper value in rookie-only fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
