RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 3

Sat Sep 24 8:50am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

Bye weeks have yet to begin in the NFL, and we only have one Monday Night Football game in Week 3. That means we have a ton of options to consider in DFS. Let’s get right down to business and highlight some players to consider for your lineups, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, PHI at WAS ($7,600): Hurts isn’t here for his passing prowess. While he did throw for 333 yards against the Vikings in Week 2, he only has one passing touchdown this season. However, he’s done plenty of damage on the ground, totaling 147 yards and three touchdowns through two weeks. With his 28 total rushing attempts in those games, his ability to rack up yards on the ground makes him an extremely appealing option.

Matthew Stafford, LAR at ARI ($6,500): Although the Cardinals pulled off a comeback win over the Raiders on Sunday, they allowed two more touchdowns through the air. That came on the heels of them giving up five passing touchdowns in Week 1. Coming off of a three-touchdown performance against the Falcons, Stafford could be in line for another juicy stat line.

Player to Avoid

Russell Wilson, DEN vs. SF ($6,800): Wilson’s tenure with the Broncos has not started off on the right foot. He only has two passing touchdowns through two games, and he only threw for 219 yards in a narrow victory over the Texans last week. The scary part was that he completed only 14 of 31 pass attempts. The 49ers have allowed a total of 26 points over their first two games, so it’s difficult to justify seeing if Russ can finally cook up a savory stat line in your DFS lineup, when Stafford has a much better matchup, to go along with a cheaper salary,

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DET ($7,800): The Vikings were dominated by the Eagles on Monday, playing from behind for much of the game. That resulted in Cook only getting six carries. His role is certainly not in doubt, especially after he turned 20 carries into 90 yards in Week 1. This should be a closer contest against a Lions team that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in league, so look for Cook to have a nice bounce back performance.

Jeff Wilson, SF at DEN ($5,300): In the 49ers’ first game with Elijah Mitchell (knee) on IR, Wilson was their lead back. He didn’t disappoint, rushing 18 times for 84 yards and catching both of his targets for an additional 19 yards. Add in Trey Lance (ankle) now being out for the season and the 49ers should run a more traditional style of offense under Jimmy Garoppolo. With Wilson leading their backfield and having such a cheap salary, he has the potential to provide value.

Player to Avoid

AJ Dillon, GB at TB ($5,800): Dillon and Aaron Jones continue to get significant work out of the backfield for the Packers. Dillon had 18 carries for 61 yards last week, while Jones had 15 carries for 132 yards and a touchdown. The problem for Dillon this week is that he not only will have to continue to share work with Jones, but he has a very difficult matchup against the Buccaneers. Last season, the Buccaneers allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the league. They have allowed just 173 rushing yards through two games this season.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, PHI at WAS ($7,300): Brown certainly looks settled in with the Eagles, totaling 15 receptions on 21 targets for 224 yards. This will be another tough test for the Commanders, who allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown to record nine receptions, 116 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2. If you’re rolling with Hurts at quarterback, be sure to pair him with Brown.

Jakobi Meyers, NE vs. BAL ($5,000): There’s very little touchdown upside with Meyers, who has only reached the end zone two times during his career. However, he had 126 targets last season, and he already has 13 receptions on 19 targets this season. If the Patriots fall into an early hole and have to play catchup, Meyers could see enough of a workload to provide value at such a cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Marquise Brown, ARI vs. LAR ($6,000): It’s been a modest start to the season for Brown, who has 10 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. He’s still lined up to be the Cardinals’ top wide receiver with DeAndre Hopkins suspended, but that might not actually be a good thing this week. He could be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, who is one of the top cornerbacks in the league.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts, ATL at SEA ($4,800): Talk about a disappointing start. Pitts hasn’t been overly involved in the Falcons’ offense, catching four passes for 38 yards. The odd thing is that he only has 10 targets through two games. Having Marcus Mariota as his quarterback will likely prevent Pitts from living up to his full potential this season. However, he still has the talent to be worth taking a chance on against the rebuilding Seahawks, who have allowed 123 yards and a touchdown to tight ends through two weeks.

Tyler Higbee, LAR at ARI ($4,300): It’s quickly become apparent that the Rams are going to rely heavily on Higbee this season. He had 11 targets in Week 1, then followed that up with nine more targets last week. In total, he has 12 catches for 110 yards. Adding him and Stafford to your entry creates plenty of upside, while neither player’s salary will destroy your budget.

Player to Avoid

Taysom Hill, NO at CAR ($4,300): No longer needed at quarterback, Hill is basically a gadget player for the Saints. He showed his upside in Week 1, rushing four times for 81 yards and a touchdown. However, he played just six offensive snaps in Week 2, rushing three times for 14 yards. Higbee has the same salary and a much more stable role with the Rams, so taking a chance on Hill this week isn’t necessary.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

Top Headlines
The Paur Report

First TFC Review

Player Notes
Xavier Legette Apr 26 3:13am CT
Xavier Legette

Dynasty | The Carolina Panthers selected wide receiver Xavier Legette with the final pick of round one in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Carolina Panthers moved up and secured the final pick of round one to draft Legette 32nd overall. It's a tricky landing spot for his value as he'll have an immediate chance for playing time but also a project being paired with a quarterback who has a whole lot of question marks moving forward. Legette looks like a boom or bust rookie draft pick who will likely go in round two of most rookie drafts moving forward.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Trey Hendrickson Apr 25 11:30pm CT
Trey Hendrickson

Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson requested a trade on Wednesday, according to his agent, Harold Lewis, as he seeks more long-term security after the two sides settled on a one-year extension last year worth $21 million. However, a source said that the Bengals are not interested in trading Hendrickson. It's not surprise that Hendrickson is looking for a new deal after posting a career-high 17.5 sacks, which was second in the NFL behind Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt. It was the highest total for a Bengals player since sacks became a statistic in 1982. He also finished 11th in pass-rush win rate as an edge rusher and created the second-most sacks (18) in the league. Contract issues aside, Hendrickson is going to be a very coveted defensive lineman in IDP fantasy formats this fall after his big 2023 campaign.

From RotoBaller

Brandon Aiyuk Apr 25 11:20pm CT
Brandon Aiyuk

The San Francisco 49ers are "more likely" to trade wide receiver Deebo Samuel than Brandon Aiyuk during this year's 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. Aiyuk's name has been mentioned in trade rumors all offseason, but now Samuel is the more likely pass-catcher to be dealt. Samuel, 28, is two years older than Aiyuk but has more versatility in the offense. However, Samuel also has a salary cap hit north of $20 million in 2025. Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal as he heads into the fifth and final contract of his rookie deal, but the Niners have been hesitant to give him a market deal given their other financial commitments. San Francisco took rookie pass-catcher Ricky Pearsall with the 31st overall pick in the first round on Thursday night, potentially foreshadowing a trade of either Samuel or Aiyuk in the coming days.

From RotoBaller

Justin Herbert Apr 25 11:20pm CT
Justin Herbert

In recent weeks, both the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings reached out to the Los Angeles Chargers to see if they had any interest in trading quarterback Justin Herbert, according to league sources. The answer they got very quickly was "a flat no." Not only do the Chargers love Herbert, but they also would have had to take on a $63.5 million salary cap charge in 2024 at a time they have $32.3 million of cap space. Meanwhile, the Patriots took QB Drake Maye third overall and the Vikings took QB J.J. McCarthy 11th overall in the first round of this year's NFL draft. There's still a lot to like about the 26-year-old Herbert, but it's hard to ignore the fact that he lost Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason and is now in a run-first offense under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

From RotoBaller

Caleb Williams Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Caleb Williams

Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the top overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected. The Bears made this all but a certainty when they traded Justin Fields to the Steelers earlier this off-season. Williams will immediately take over the franchise and will be in a unique situation as a rookie starter with an offense that isn't exactly lacking talent. The likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and D'Andre Swift should be enough to keep his dynasty value high even as he learns the position. Williams should be immediately installed as a low-end QB1 and an easy pick at the top of a Superflex league rookie draft.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Jayden Daniels Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Jayden Daniels

Dynasty | The Washington Commanders selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Commanders decided to make Daniels the face of the franchise and took him with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It's hard to blame him as he put up video game numbers last season at LSU. It's difficult to see any other quarterback with a higher ceiling than Daniels has, though it's also evident there's a low floor here as well, especially considering his small frame. If he can prove his throwing ability can match his rushing talent, the sky is truly the limit, though. Daniels could find his way to the top of Superflex rookie drafts and is an easy early second rounder in conventional rookie drafts this off-season as well.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Drake Maye Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Drake Maye

Dynasty | The New England Patriots drafted UNC quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Patriots have hit the reset button with the first pick in the post-Bill Belichick era and took Maye with the third overall selection. He should have a solid chance to take over as the starter immediately and be given every opportunity to succeed. However, there are concerns here as Maye will not exactly be given a roster full of elite talent. Maye is in danger of some really serious adversity early in his career and may need to work through it. Regardless, Maye looks like a solid Superflex pick and a second rounder in conventional formats.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Kyler Murray Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Kyler Murray

Dynasty | The Arizona Cardinals drafted Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Cardinals decided to stand pat in the draft and took Harrison with the fourth overall selection. He should immediately take over as the top option for Kyler Murray in the desert and is in place to immediately become a big factor in dynasty leagues. Simply put, Harrison has the talent, pedigree and skill set to be an immediate WR1 and should be the top overall position player taken in rookie drafts this off-season.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Jayden Daniels Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Jayden Daniels

Dynasty | The top Washington pass-catcher gets an upgrade at QB with the selection of Jayden Daniels. Dynasty Analysis: Currently ranked as WR35 in DLF's dynasty ranks, McLaurin could get the biggest value bump at the position with the QB change. A precision passer who is also a dangerous runner, Daniels is exactly what the Commanders needed to open up the offense. McLaurin figures to benefit the most as the Heisman-winning rookie's top receiving option, and could jump more than 10 spots into low end WR2 range.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Daniel Jones Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Daniel Jones

Dynasty | The New York Giants drafted LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: The Giants reportedly flirted with many options in the draft (including maneuvering for a quarterback) but ended up grabbing Nabers with the sixth overall pick. It's hard to blame them as Nabers could honestly be the best receiver in this class. While Daniel Jones' health and overall play is still in question, Nabers should enter the season as the top pass catcher for the Giants and makes for an easy top-three pick in conventional dynasty rookie drafts this off-season.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

DeAndre Hopkins Apr 25 11:13pm CT
DeAndre Hopkins

Dynasty | Murray gets a new WR1 with the arrival of Marvin Harrison, Jr. Dynasty Analysis: After missing half of the 2023 season rehabbing a torn ACL, and losing DeAndre Hopkins before the season and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown after the season, dynasty owners have been understandably skeptical of Murray. But the addition of Harrison gives Murray arguably the best weapon of his career. Previously ranked as QB10 with mid/late 2nd round ADP, Murray is poised to jump back into the first round for the first time since the ACL injury in 2022.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Michael Penix Jr. Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Michael Penix Jr.

Dynasty | Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr was drafted 8th overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Dynasty Analysis: Wow. Penix was reportedly rising up draft boards this off-season but few expected him to go in the top ten of the NFL Draft, no less to the Falcons, who had recently signed Kirk Cousins. Penix is now in place to back up Cousins for a year or more before taking over for Atlanta as their long-term answer. Unfortunately, his chance at a starting job is close to zero for this season and his draft stock in dynasty leagues is going to suffer as a result, Patience could be rewarded for dynasty managers but it's going to be tough to use a pick (and a roster spot) long-term for a lottery ticket like Penix. In short, this looks like a pick better in reality and fantasy and Penix is a serious wild card in dynasty rookie drafts as a result.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Justin Herbert Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Justin Herbert

Dynasty | The fifth overall selection of left tackle Joe Alt gives Justin Herbert some much-needed blindside protection. Dynasty Analysis: Herbert still faces a lack of pass-catching weapons as of the draft's first round. But the concern of a run ultra-heavy approach under new head coach Jim Harbaugh should subside �" if only slightly �" with the arrival of Alt. Herbert has struggled with injuries over the last two seasons, facing constant pressure when he is on the field. The pocket should solidify and Herbert should have significantly more time to throw with the upgrade at left tackle.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Caleb Williams Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Caleb Williams

Dynasty | The Chicago Bears drafted wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 overall draft. Dynasty Analysis: Many mock drafts had put Odunze at #9 to Chicago and that's exactly where he ended up. His dynasty prospects are going to be a little cloudy early as he attempts to navigate his way to targets with the likes of Keenan Allen and DJ Moore early in his career but he has the chops to be a dominant dynasty performer in time. His career arc should match that of Caleb Williams and while the early returns could be hit and miss he still looks like a top three wide receiver and top five rookie pick this off-season.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Sam Darnold Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Sam Darnold

Dynasty | The Minnesota Vikings drafted Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy with the tenth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: There was a lot of smoke about McCarthy being taken in the top five but he ended up falling to tenth pick where Minnesota was happy to scoop him up. The Vikings will likely hold an open competition between McCarthy and Sam Darnold but it certainly looks like McCarthy has been pegged as the future for the franchise. His upside is debatable in dynasty leagues as McCarthy may not be the most dynamic player in the draft but he does seem like one of the safer options. He looks like a late second or early third round pick in rookie drafts.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Russell Wilson Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Russell Wilson

Dynasty | The Denver Broncos drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Nix ended up being the sixth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft but the 12th overall selection, being taken by the Broncos. Denver is looking to quickly replace Russell Wilson and Head Coach Sean Payton is reportedly enamored with Nix. All of this adds up to him likely being the week one starter for Denver and gives him a decent runway to be successful. The numbers are very impressive here and Nix now has a pretty solid runway to playing time. As such, his rookie ADP is likely going to rise into the second round of rookie drafts.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Brock Bowers Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Brock Bowers

Dynasty | The Las Vegas Raiders selected tight end Brock Bowers with the 13th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Bowers slipped a little in the NFL Draft as teams maneuvered around to secure quarterbacks. In the end, he ended up being taken 13th overall to the Raiders. It's an odd fit as Las Vegas invested in Michael Mayer last season but Bowers should still have a solid chance to contribute early and often. Having a clearer path to being a true TE1 on his team would have likely solidified his spot as a top five rookie pick but this could drop him down just a smidge. Still, he has as much talent as anyone we've ever seen at the position and should have a floor that makes him very desirable in round one of rookie drafts.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Caleb Williams Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Caleb Williams

Dynasty | After getting a big quarterback upgrade with the selection of Caleb Williams, Moore gets some serious competition for targets as the Bears pick Rome Odunze. Dynasty Analysis: The excitement of Williams throwing to Moore and Co. lasted all of eight picks, as the ninth overall selection of Odunze poses a threat to Moore's workload. While Odunze's downfield prowess compliments the short-mid range deployment of Keenan Allen, Odunze will directly compete with Moore for downfield and perimeter targets. Moore will continue to line up as the WR1 in the offense, but his WR16 dynasty ranking at DLF isn't likely to hold up with his diminished target share.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Cole Kmet Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Cole Kmet

Dynasty | The Raiders select generational talent Brock Bowers, effectively burying Mayer and his dynasty value. Dynasty Analysis: A chalk sleeper at the TE position, Mayer was positioned for a breakout in 2023. That is, until Brock Bowers came along. The 13th overall pick is considered one of the best TE prospects in league history, and he immediately walks into the starting job in Sin City. Mayer went into the draft ranked as the dynasty TE14 on DLF, in the neighborhood of Luke Musgrave and Cole Kmet, ahead of Dalton Schultz. His ranking is likely to plummet now that he is the backup to Bowers.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Brian Thomas Jr. Apr 25 11:13pm CT
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dynasty | The Jaguars drafted LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: Thomas landed in a great spot, being taken late in round one by the Jacksonville Jaguars. A true playmaker, he should have every opportunity to replace Calvin Ridley quickly in the Jaguars offense and is a candidate to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year based on his talent and opportunity. This was a solid development for his value and Thomas should have his spot as a top-6 player in rookie drafts solidified as a result.

From Dynasty League Fantasy