Lineup Prep: Week 6

Wed Oct 13 10:22am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Pittman is quickly gaining value


The big fantasy reminder this week is the byes start. They are never fun to deal with but part of the game. Hopefully, you somewhat planned for this day and can roll out some good lineups despite some key players being off. Just reminder that every team has to deal with this. It isn’t just your team. With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

If you haven’t figured it out, Justin Herbert is really, really, really good. I was confused by the many preseason fantasy takes for a regression of Herbert this year. I thought maybe I was watching different tape when looking at Herbert. But the start to this season proved to me that I wasn’t. This guy is special. Herbert has a chance to be one of the all-time greats. He just sees the field so well and makes so many special throws. He is going to be a fantasy great for years to come.

I hear a lot of people say I just don’t know the Bucs receiver that is going to have a big game on a weekly basis. But here is a not so hot take, just start all of them. This passing game is unreal. Sure, one guy might be a little down a few times throughout the year, but for the most part, these guys are going to all produce. The numbers don’t like. Chris Godwin is 13th overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Mike Evans comes in at 11 and Antonio Brown is 26th despite missing a game because of injury. Just start them and be happy with this offense. Don’t overthink things.

I can’t remember a week with so many high scoring fantasy games. The Week 5 scores were just off the charts. There were more 200-plus point games than I have ever seen. Hopefully, you had some of those teams racking up the points. I think this might be a bit of a trend going forward, too. Teams just don’t seem to have an answer for many of these top offenses in the league. We’ll see.

Matt Ryan had a bad first game but has been his usual good self after that. He has done well in the Falcons new offense and is quickly forming a rapport with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. Ryan has 20-plus fantasy points four straight games. He might not be the flashy fantasy quarterback starter, but it is hard to ignore his production. He gets the weekly chances, too, having at least 35 pass attempts every game. It amazes me that he is unowned in 30 percent of leagues on our site.

So apparently the league has the book on how to slow Patrick Mahomes. It is to stop blitzing and put more in coverage. That is what the Bills did last week, blitzing just once. I’m not convinced this game plan is going to work. The Chiefs will adjust as will Mahomes. Kansas City will find ways to get this offense humming again if teams refuse to blitz him. And fantasy owners shouldn’t worry too much about this talk. In his “down” game last week against the Bills, Mahomes scored 25.7 fantasy points. Mahomes will be just fine.

I don’t think the start of the season for Knox is a fluke. I think he is a legit No. 1 fantasy tight end. He plays in one of the best offenses in football and is maybe the top red-zone passing target on the team. He has touchdowns four straight games and 20-plus points two straight. Knox is a guy that wasn’t even drafted in fantasy leagues. If you were fortunate enough to get him, good work. I’m not sure he is remains a top-five tight end, but I think he can be top 10 for sure.

I kept telling owners to be patient with Robert Woods. I know his start was frustrating but it seemed just a matter of time before he got on the same page with Matthew Stafford and was a bigger part of the offense. Well, he broke out in a huge way in Week 5, catching 12 passes for 150 yards on 14 targets. Even with his slow start, Woods has double-digit fantasy points four of five games. It was probably overblown just a little about his start to the year. Woods will be just fine for fantasy owners. This guy has been an elite fantasy receiver the last several seasons for a reason.

Saquon Barkley just can’t catch a break. Just when you thought he was ready to take off, he gets hit with another injury. He hurt his ankle and is going to miss a few weeks of action. Barkley had 20-plus fantasy points two straight games before suffering the injury in Week 5. For me, I think trying to get Barkley for a cheap price from a disgruntled owner isn’t a bad move. This injury isn’t season ending and we all saw his potential those couple weeks this year when he started to get rolling. Just something to think about.

News and Notes: Raiders head coach Jon Gruden officially resigned from his position Monday. Gruden resigned after emails came to light of offensive language on several subjects. Rich Bisaccia takes over as the interim head coach for the Raiders. Bisaccia has been the special teams coordinator for the team. . . . .The Steelers signed veteran receiver Anthony Miller to their practice squad on Tuesday. He gives the team some depth after a season-ending injury to JuJu Smith-Schuster. . . . .The Broncos signed receiver John Brown to their practice squad on Tuesday. Brown adds some more depth at receiver after the Broncos lost another receiver to injury (KJ Hamler). . . . .New Orleans signed kicker Brian Johnson off the Bears practice squad on Tuesday. He takes over the kicking duties for the Saints because of Cody Parkey getting injured last week.

HOT PLAYS

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles. Hurts didn’t throw for 200 yards last week or have a passing touchdown but still managed to score 25.9 fantasy points. He ran for two scores and rushed for 30 yards. His ability to make plays with his feet gives him a very high weekly floor. Hurts is getting it done on a weekly basis for fantasy teams, having at least 23 fantasy points every game. He should keep it rolling this week against the Bucs. The Eagles could be playing from behind, giving Hurts more chances to air it out. And if that happens, look for plenty of success against the worst pass defense in football. Plus, Tampa allows the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Najee Harris, RB, Steelers. Harris had his first 100-yard rushing game of his career last week. He has been great for his fantasy owners, especially in recent weeks. Harris has three straight games with 21-plus fantasy points. He is getting a ton of weekly touches and producing. He should be a  big factor again this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and are 31st against the run.

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman has emerged as the top target for the Colts and has produced very consistent numbers. He has at least six receptions four straight games. He also scored his first touchdown of the season last week, having a season high 20.9 fantasy points. He can keep it rolling this week against the Texans, a team allowing 257-passing yards per game. Pittman is a top No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams. Henderson has missed a game because of injury this year but is still 16th overall in fantasy running back scoring. He has been very good of late, having 80-plus rushing yards two straight games. He also has touchdowns three of four games in the Rams explosive offense. Henderson is becoming a must start for his fantasy owners. He might have his best game of the season this week against the Giants, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to running backs.

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Bills. Sanders might not be the same player as he was earlier in his career but is still getting it done for the Bills. He has been doing his job on a weekly basis and making plays in the red zone. He has multiple touchdowns two of three games. He also has been targeted at least five times every game, giving him a pretty high weekly floor. Sanders seems to have a good chance to find the end zone again this week against the Titans. Tennessee has allowed nine passing touchdowns and give up the most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS 

Alex Collins, RB, Seahawks. Collins started last week for an injured Chris Carson and 15 times for 47 yards. He has 25 carries for just 91 yards his last two games. Collins is getting the work but doing little with it. Look for more of the same this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank ninth overall against the run. So even if Carson is out again, leave Collins on your bench unless you are desperate for options.

David Njoku, TE, Browns. Njoku was a big surprise last week, catching seven passes for 149 yards. He had fewer than 20 yards three straight games before last week. He has been erratic throughout the season. Remember, he is the backup tight end to Austin Hooper. Njoku is more of a matchup play - even after last week. And a matchup this week against the Cardinals is not a good one for Njoku. The Cardinals have not allowed a tight end to score double-digit fantasy points all season and allow the second fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

A.J. Brown, WR, Titans. Brown has been a real disappointment this season. He has not had more than 50 yards in a game and found the end zone just once in four games. He has yet to have double-digit targets in a game. Brown also has been slowed by a hamstring injury, which doesn’t help matters for him. We think it will be more of the same this week against the Bills. He likely gets shutdown corner Tre'Davious White in coverage. And the Bills allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers this season.

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. Carr has cooled since his hot start. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points two straight games. He also has fewer than 210-passing yards each of his last two games. He had 380-plus passing yards each of his first three games, so his production has really slipped. Carr might do more of the same this week against the Broncos, especially with all the turmoil going on in Las Vegas. Denver allows the second fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks for the season. Go with other options in Week 6.

Both Eagles running backs (Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell). Many thought Gainwell might emerge and get more playing time after a good showing in Week 4, but that wasn’t the case. Sanders played 75 percent of the snaps in Week 5 while Gainwell was on the field just 24 percent of the time. Sanders had 16 touches for just 51 yards in the game. His season high in fantasy points is just 17.3 and he has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of five games. Gainwell has the exact same line, having two games with doubled-digit points and three with fewer. We just wouldn’t bother with either of these backs right now, especially this week against the Bucs. Tampa clamps down on the run, allowing just 45.8-rushing yards per game.

SLEEPERS

Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots. Bourne has double-digit fantasy points two fo three games. He has 14 receptions those three games. He has been much more involved in the offense after a slow start to the year. He might get more looks again this week in a game the Patriots might need to put up some points. New England plays a great Cowboys offense. Dallas also allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and rank 31st against the pass. Bourne has a high ceiling in this one.

Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington. Heinicke is 12th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has 24-plus fantasy points three of four games. He has done a very good job as the starter for Washington and might keep the job even when Ryan Fitzpatrick is healthy and ready to play again. Heinicke has become a legit streaming option for fantasy teams. He has a lot of weapons to work with offensively and can also make some plays with his legs. Heinicke is setup for another good showing in Week 6 against the Chiefs. Washington might need to score a lot of points to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense, giving Heinicke a lot of chances. Plus, the Chiefs allow the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 28th overall against the pass.

Quez Watkins, WR, Eagles. Watkins is getting some weekly chances in the Eagles offense as the No. 3 receiver. He has multiple receptions every game and at least 33 yards four straight. He has been targeted 10 times his last two games and played a season high 82 percent of the snaps last week, playing more than No. 2 receiver Jalen Reagor (70 percent). If Watkins is on the field a lot again this week, he could do some damage against a bad Bucs secondary. Tampa allows the second most fantasy points to receivers. Watkins could be a sneaky play for teams looking for bye week or injury fill-ins for Week 6.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams. Higbeen does not have more than 40 yards since Week 1 but does have touchdowns two of three games. He has become a top target in the red zone, giving him some weekly value for fantasy teams. It would be nice to see his yardage and catch totals increase, but the touchdowns sure help. And he might find the end zone again this week against the Giants. New York has done alright against the pass but have struggled with tight ends. The Giants allow the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends. It might be a good time to get Higbee in your lineup this week.

Latavius Murray, RB, Ravens. Murray played the most snaps at running back last week (49 percent) and was on the field even more the previous game, playing 62 percent of the snaps. At this point, Murray is the back to use in this offense. He is not a sure thing, having more than 50-rushing yards and double-digit fantasy points just one game, but the potential is certainly there in this offense. And he has a favorable matchup to do his most damage of the season this week anginas the Chargers. Los Angeles is seventh against the pass compared to 32nd against the run.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bucs/Eagles, Chiefs/Washington, Vikings/Panthers, Chargers/Ravens, Cardinals/Browns, Bills/Titans.

Low Scoring Games: Raiders/Broncos.

Bye Weeks: Falcons, Saints, Jets, 49ers. 

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Jayden Daniels Apr 26 10:40pm CT
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The Washington Commanders have selected Rice University wide receiver Luke McCaffrey with the 100th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The pick marked the end of Round 3 and Day 2 of the draft. McCaffrey is a converted quarterback who transferred from Nebraska to Rice during the middle of his collegiate career. He truly broke out during his final season with the Owls, catching 71 passes for 992 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also rushed for an additional 117 yards on the ground. The brother of 49ers star Christian McCaffrey and son of three-time Super Bowl champion Ed McCaffrey, Luke demonstrated extreme leadership, football IQ, physicality, athleticism, and route running skills at Rice. He excelled in contested catch scenarios and should be a very reliable weapon for the Commanders and new quarterback Jayden Daniels. He figures to enter training camp as Washington's No. 3 wide receiver behind Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.

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Jalen McMillan Apr 26 10:10pm CT
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan with the 92nd overall pick in the NFL draft. McMillan totaled 559 yards on 45 catches with five scores in 11 games last season. He plays mostly from the slot and did have a nagging knee injury that limited his catches considerably compared to 2022, where he caught 79 passes. The 22-year-old does well in changing speeds in a route to put defensive backs on their heels. McMillan joins a veteran-led wide receiver room with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. McMillan should be in contention to serve as the number three option with Trey Palmer, who Tampa selected last season. McMillan should be a popular pick in rookie drafts and could carve out a role in redraft as well.

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MarShawn Lloyd Apr 26 10:00pm CT
MarShawn Lloyd

The Green Bay Packers selected USC running back MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th pick in the NFL draft. Lloyd is credited for having great acceleration and the ability to bounce outside the tackles. He averaged over seven yards per carry last season, which showcases his big-play ability. The 23-year-old ran for 820 yards and nine scores last season. Lloyd joins a running back room that just welcomed Josh Jacobs, which will limit his fantasy value early on, but he could grow into a part-time contributor over the course of his rookie season.

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J.J. McCarthy Apr 26 9:50pm CT
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have selected University of Michigan wide receiver Roman Wilson with the No. 84 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 22-year-old was one of J.J. McCarthy's favorite targets on the national champion Wolverines. He caught 49 passes for 789 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023, showcasing his speed, hands, and route running skills on a national stage. The Steelers have been looking for wide receiver help ever since trading Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers. Wilson could immediately slot into the Steelers' No. 2 wide receiver role alongside George Pickens, giving him appeal in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

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Tip Reiman Apr 26 9:50pm CT
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The Cardinals selected University of Illinois tight end Tip Reiman with the No. 82 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He played four years at Illinois, totaling 420 yards and five touchdowns off 41 catches. While the 22-year-old has plenty of positive attributes, he wasn't as productive at the collegiate level as others in his class. With that said, Reiman will have a chance to carve out playing time in Arizona, a team in a transition phase. However, he'll need to compete for snaps with Trey McBride, one of the league's emerging tight ends.

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Joe Burrow Apr 26 9:40pm CT
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The Bengals selected Alabama wide receiver Jermaine Burton with the No. 80 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The 22-year-old began his collegiate career at Georgia. However, he played at Alabama in the last two seasons. During his time with the Crimson Tide, he totaled 79 catches for 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also averaged 20.5 yards per catch as a senior. It will be tough for anyone to get consistently involved offensively with Ja'Marr Chase and potentially Tee Higgins in the equation. However, If Burton gets snaps, he could flourish catching passes from Joe Burrow, one of the best quarterbacks in the National Football League.

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Blake Corum Apr 26 9:40pm CT
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The Los Angeles Rams have selected University of Michigan running back Blake Corum with the No. 83 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The national champion is the third running back off the board following Texas' Jonathon Brooks and Florida State's Trey Benson. He totaled 2,905 scrimmage yards and a whopping 47 touchdowns over his last two seasons. He's not a major contributor in the passing game but clearly carves out plenty of work on the ground and near the goal line. Kyren Williams is still Los Angeles' top running back, but Corum should carve out a role and could even have immediate fantasy appeal given his nose for the end zone.

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Trey Benson Apr 26 8:50pm CT
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The Arizona Cardinals selected Florida State running back Trey Benson with the 66th overall pick in the NFL Draft. Benson could be the most complete running back in the draft class. He excelled at breaking tackles, setting the single-season FBS record by forcing 0.51 missed tackles per run. The 21-year-old also possesses great breakaway speed with 14 runs of 20 or more yards (ninth in FBS). Last season, Benson ran for 906 yards on the ground and 227 through the air and 15 total scores. He will join veteran James Connor, who could limit his fantasy value early on, but he should be an early second-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Malachi Corley Apr 26 8:40pm CT
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The New York Jets traded up with the Carolina Panthers to select Western Kentucky wide receiver Malachi Corley. Corley led the nation in yards after catch over the past two seasons, has great elusiveness, and had the most receptions in the FBS over the past three seasons with 253. The 22-year-old can threaten vertically as well and should be a strong deep threat option for Aaron Rodgers. Corley joins a wide receiver room with star Garrett Wilson and newly acquired Mike Williams. Corley could be a sleeper pick in fantasy this season as he could slot in as the number two option with the injury-prone Mike Williams.

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Jayden Daniels Apr 26 8:00pm CT
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The Commanders selected Kansas State tight end Ben Sinnott with the No. 53 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old is coming off the best collegiate season of his career, totaling 49 catches for 676 yards and six touchdowns. While he's still young, he has the tools needed to be a potent pass-catcher moving ahead. Of course, Sinnott will have to contend with Zach Ertz for playing time. It could also take Jayden Daniels some time to find his rhythm in Washington, meaning Sinnott might not be productive immediately.

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Kool-Aid McKinstry Apr 26 7:50pm CT
Kool-Aid McKinstry

With the No. 41 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Saints selected Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. New Orleans traded with Green Bay for this pick, so the 21-year-old will fill a void on the defensive side of the ball. McKinstry, a 2023 All-American, played three seasons at Alabama. He totaled 93 tackles (62 solo), adding two picks, two sacks, and 23 passes defensed. With the Saints looking to finish atop the NFC South in 2024-25, McKinstry should play a pivotal role right out of the gate.

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Adonai Mitchell Apr 26 7:40pm CT
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The Indianapolis Colts selected Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell with the No. 52 overall pick of the second round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Mitchell was rumored to be taken as high as the middle of Round 1, but he ultimately fell a bit and landed with quarterback Anthony Richarson. Mitchell spent two seasons at Georgia before transferring to the Longhorns, where he racked up 55 receptions for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns while playing alongside Xavier Worthy and J'Tavion Sanders. With Michael Pittman Jr. in town, Mitchell might be capped in the WR2 role, but the development of Richardson will dictate how much upside he may have.

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Roschon Johnson Apr 26 7:30pm CT
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The Carolina Panthers traded with the Indianapolis Colts to move up to the 46th spot to select Texas Longhorns running back Jonathon Brooks (knee). He was behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson on the Texas depth chart for two seasons. However, he broke out in 2023 with 1,139 yards and 10 rushing scores and was named second-team All-Big 12. The 20-year-old tore his ACL late in the season but should be ready for training camp. Brooks joins a crowded running back room with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, which could limit his fantasy value early in the season, but he should be a late first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Trevor Lawrence Apr 26 7:13pm CT
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Keon Coleman Apr 26 7:13pm CT
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Ladd McConkey Apr 26 7:13pm CT
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Xavier Worthy Apr 26 7:13pm CT
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Dynasty | Kelce is the sneaky winner of the defending champs' first round selection of WR Xavier Worthy. Dynasty Analysis: Adding another burner opposite Marquise "Hollywood" Brown gives the Chiefs the fastest receiving corps in the league. While neither WR expects to command an overwhelming target share, the biggest benefactor will be TE Travis Kelce as he operates in the wide open spaces of the middle of the field. Kelce's dynasty value has been creeping downward due to his age (34), dropping from his long time throne as QB1 all the way to QB6 in DLF's dynasty rankings. With the field-stretching speedsters on the perimeter opening up the field, Kelce is a virtual lock to outperform most of the tight ends currently ranked ahead of him.

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Justin Herbert Apr 26 7:13pm CT
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Dynasty | After getting a new left tackle in round one, Justin Herbert's stock continues to rise as the Chargers trade up for Ladd McConkey. Dynasty Analysis: Even after the team used it's fifth overall pick to protect Herbert's blindside, skepticism remained due to a lack of weaponry. But the Chargers moved up three spots to acquire a new top pass catcher (and Keenan Allen replacement in the slot), Ladd McConkey. The Chargers likely aren't done building the offense around Herbert, but with just those two draft picks, the franchise has made their quarterback a dynasty value. DLF's QB6 has QB1 overall upside with his own skillset and a little help from his supporting cast.

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Drake Maye Apr 26 7:13pm CT
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Dynasty | The Patriots drafted Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty Analysis: As expected, Polk was drafted right in the middle of a big receiver run in the NFL Draft, going to the Patriots early in round two. He was the tenth receiver taken but amazingly the 37th overall pick, which just shows the depth of this draft. Polk lands in a desirable spot as the Patriots depth chart at receiver is a mess. He'll need to grow together with Drake Maye but some patience could be rewarded here. Polk looks like a pretty solid pick in round two of conventional rookie drafts.

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Ja'Lynn Polk Apr 26 6:50pm CT
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The New England Patriots selected Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk with the No. 37 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. New England has often been predicted to pick a wide receiver in Round 2 after landing their QB of the future in Round 1, and that's exactly what they did. Despite sharing the field with stud wide receiver Rome Odunze in 2023, Polk caught 69 passes for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns during Washington's run to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Given the weak wide receiver room in New England, he's another rookie wideout who could become his team's No. 1 wide receiver in short order. He has the ability to start at X-receiver immediately.

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