Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 23 9:32am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Tua is setup for another big week


Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. And my Thanksgiving Lineup Prep is my favorite column to write. I like to list all the things I’m thankful for fantasy wise. It is a fun column to write and I’m excited to get it started. So without further ado, here we go. . .  .

I am thankful for rebound seasons. I have tons of stock in Saquon Barkley this year and thrilled to see him running like the Saquon of old. Sure, it was a little risk to put a ton of stock in him to get it going again, but sometimes you have to take some risks if you hope to hit it big. And right now, all those Barkley owners are feeling pretty good about taking him come draft day.

I am thankful for different draft strategies working for fantasy owners. There isn’t a set strategy that works every time come draft day, which I think makes this game that much more fun to play. You can use all different strategies and still have success. I think this year is a great example of this. The running back spot has been really frustrating this year, but the ones that have played well have played really well. So if you got a Austin Ekeler or Barkley, you are probably having a good season. But the teams that avoided running back early come draft day probably are having plenty of success as well with Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson having huge seasons. So going receiver early has worked as well, especially if you were able to nab a guy like Dameon Pierce or Josh Jacobs later in your drafts. And those owners that took Travis Kelce in the first or second round have enjoyed plenty of success as well as he is head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the tight ends this year. So as you can see, all sorts of different strategies have led to success this year. It seems the case every year, making this game so fun to play. 

I am thankful that players and the NFL are embracing the fantasy community. You see so much more engagement from players when it comes to fantasy football, especially a guy like Austin Ekeler. This is great news for the fantasy industry and players. This game should continue to evolve and flourish with guys like Ekeler leading the way as a strong advocate for the game. 

I am thankful the NFL trade market is a lot more exciting these days. I can’t remember a deadline that brought so much activity as this past year. It was great to see a guy like Christian McCaffrey get a fresh start in a much better offense. It is rare to see such a big-name player get traded in the NFL, but maybe this year will open the door for that to happen more often during the season. It sure made for an exciting deadline this year. Let’s hope that is the norm going forward. 

I am thankful for all the up to the minute info you can find on Twitter when it comes to injuries, trades, and any other breaking news that can impact your fantasy lineup. It is amazing how quickly news travels these days. This makes things so much easier than it used to when it comes to setting your lineups and rankings for the week. Say what you want about Twitter, but it has been a huge blessing to the fantasy community. Just a great way to engage and get up to the minute information. 

I am thankful for underdog stories. It is great to see players exceed expectations and help fantasy teams when no on thought that might be the case. The big one this year is Geno Smith. He is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and outplaying the player he replaced, Russell Wilson, by a wide margin. I don’t think anyone saw this one coming outside of Smith himself. It has been a great story. 

I am thankful for rookies. Everyone loves a rookie, but especially a rookie that helps fantasy teams. And there are plenty of rookies that are making an impact this year. That seems to be the case every year, but rookie running backs have been especially good this year despite none of them being super hyped come draft day. Dameon Pierce, Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall look to be top fantasy players for years to come. 

Lastly, I am thankful for you, the users of RealTime Fantasy Sports. This is a great community to be a part of and I am super thankful to be just a small part of that. Thank you so much for helping make RTSports the best fantasy football community on the web. Have a great Thanksgiving!

News and Notes: The Broncos released running back Melvin Gordon on Monday. This was a surprise, but fumbling issues and a lack of consistency likely ended his time in Denver. Latavius Murray should get first shot to start for Denver going forward. . . . .The Panthers named Sam Darnold  the starting quarterback for Week 12. He takes over for Baker Mayfield, who has struggled much of the year. . . . .The Rams released running back Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. This was a bit of a surprise, leaving Cam Akers and Kyren Williams the likely players to split the carries at running back for the Rams going forward. 

HOT PLAYS

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys. The return of Ezekiel Elliott didn’t slow down Pollard. He still played 54 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Elliott. Pollard has 21-plus fantasy point three straight games. He has topped 100 total yards four straight games. And in Week 3 against the Giants, who he is playing this week, Pollard had a 100-yard rushing game. He is a must start for fantasy teams right now. 

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings. Hockenson didn’t have a great game his last time out, but the entire Vikings offense was a mess. The good new is he was still targeted nine times in the game. He has at least nine targets three straight games with the Vikings. He is getting a ton of weekly looks with his new team. He has double-digit fantasy points five times this season, showing he is capable of the big game. He can rebound this week against the Patriots, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. New England allows the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa has become about a must start for fantasy teams on a weekly basis. He is playing his best football right now, being third overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has three straight games with three touchdown passes and hit the 300-yard mark two of those games. He has 26-plus fantasy points three consecutive games. He can reach those numbers again this week against the Texans, a team that allows 23 points per game. 

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker had one of his worst games of the season since becoming starter his last time out, rushing 10 times for just 17 yards. But the good news was he was still involved in the passing game, catching six passes for 55 yards on eight targets. This really helps his fantasy floor. He has at least 12 fantasy points six straight games. Look for him to get back to his big ways against a bad Raiders defense in Week 12. Las Vegas allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders. McLaurin isn’t having quite the season most hoped, but it hasn’t been all bad by any means, especially since Taylor Heinicke has become the starter. He has 100-yard games two of four and been targeted at least eight times five straight. He has 17-plus fantasy points three of five games. He remains capable of the huge game any given week. And a matchup against the Falcons this week is a great one for McLaurin. Atlanta allows the most fantasy points to receivers and are 29th overall against the pass. 

COLD PLAYS 

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants. Jones has played better football lately, but still hasn’t been great all year. He has six games with fewer than 20 fantasy points. And one of his favorite targets in the passing game, Wan’Dale Robinson, is now out for the season. This is not good news for Jones, especially this week against a very good Cowboys defense. Jones scored just 16.7 fantasy points in Week 3 against Dallas. He passed for just 196 yards and didn’t score a touchdown. Go with better options in Week 12. 

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara has been pretty quiet lately, especially on the ground. He has fewer than 50-rushing yard three straight games. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of those games. He isn’t even getting enough work in the passing game to make up for those poor rushing totals. It could be more of the same this week against a very good 49ers defense. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and rank first overall against the run, allowing just 81.1-rushing yards per game. 

Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers. Johnson is super talented but just isn’t getting it done for fantasy teams right now. He is not stretching the field at all, leading to poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points four of five games. He has less than 50 yards four of those games. His season high in yards is just 84. He is a hard player to trust, especially this week against the Colts. Indy allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank seventh overall against the pass.  

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals. Mixon had one of his worst games of the season last week, scoring just 9.2 fantasy points. He ran seven times for just 20 yards. He actually has fewer than 30-rushing yards two of three games. The Bengals are having some issues running the ball and it could be more of the same this week against the Titans. Tennessee allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs and rank second against the run. Tennesse has not allowed 100-rushing yards since Week 2. 

Darnell Mooney, WR, Bears. Mooney is finally starting to show some signs of life as the Bears offense is heating up. He has scores two of three games. The concern is he has fewer than 50 yards two of those games. He still isn’t getting a ton of yards or catches despite the Bears playing well. And now Justin Fields is hurt and iffy to play, which is a big concern for Mooney. He might be a player to avoid this week against the Jets, a team that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and rank 10th overall against the pass. 

SLEEPERS

Kalif Raymond, WR, Lions. Raymond has played at least 82% of the snaps six straight games. He is getting a lot of playing time in the Lions offense. And he has at least three receptions three straight games. His numbers aren’t off the charts but consistent. He has a chance for a lot of targets once again against the Bills. The Lions are likely going to be playing from behind this game, needing to throw often. Raymond could be a sneaky WR3 for fantasy teams in Week 12. 

Rachaad White, RB, Bucs. White played more snaps than Leonard Fournette his last time out for the first time all season. White played 64 percent of the snaps compared to 29 percent for Fournette. There could be a changing of the guard going on in Tampa. And White is playing well with his chances, hitting the 100-yard mark for the first time in his career his last game. If he gets that workload again this week against the Browns, White can produce big once again. Cleveland allows the second most fantasy points to running backs. 

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts. Campbell is a different receiver with Matt Ryan at the helm at quarterback. He has 12 receptions his last two games and had 17 receptions during a two-game stretch with Ryan starting earlier this season. Ryan targeted him 23 times during those two games. He has real fantasy value with Ryan starting in Indy. He should do well again this week against the Steelers, a team playing better defensively but still allow the second most fantasy points to receivers. Pittsburgh is dead last against the pass, allowing 272.1-passing yards per game. 

Foster Moreau, TE, Raiders. Moreau hasn’t done a whole lot in a starting role for the Raiders, but does have a double-digit game two weeks ago against the Colts. He has at least four targets four of five games. He is getting some weekly chances and producing decent number. He could hit that double-digit fantasy point total this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is not good against the tight end, allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Moreau could be a good streaming option for fantasy teams. 

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers. Hubbard actually played the most snaps for the Panthers last week, playing 40 percent compared to 39 percent for D’Onta Foreman. Hubbard had just six touches in the game, but two were receptions, which helps his fantasy floor. He is the better pass catcher of the two, which helps him get on the field. The Panthers could struggle to run the ball against a good Broncos defense, so Hubbard could be on the field more once again as the Panthers might throw the ball more often. He could be worth a look in deeper formats for fantasy teams. 

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bills/Lions, Chargers/Cardinals, Raiders/Seahawks, Packers/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: Bears/Jets, Broncos/Panthers, Steelers/Colts.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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BJ Ojulari Apr 25 10:40pm CT
BJ Ojulari

The Arizona Cardinals selected Missouri defensive end Darius Robinson with the 27th overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. Robinson was a late bloomer for the Tigers in college and sometimes disappeared from games, but in the end, the pass-rusher was a first-team All-SEC performer as a fifth-year senior in 2023 after recording 8.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in 2023. Robinson weighed in at 285 pounds and has long arms and plenty of power to push his way to opposing quarterbacks. He's also serviceable in the run game and will compete for plenty of playing time right away in the desert in 2024 next to Zaven Collins and BJ Ojulari. Robinson is powerful but is going to need to develop his repertoire to have success in the NFL.

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Xavier Worthy Apr 25 10:40pm CT
Xavier Worthy

The Kansas City Chiefs traded up to the No. 28 overall pick with the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night to select Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Worthy posted the fastest recorded 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine in February and doesn't turn 21 years old until Saturday. He's obviously a burner at the receiver position, but he's also tough and had the production to back it with the Longhorns (over 1,000 yards receiving in 2023). The concern with Worthy is his slight frame at 5-foot-11, 165 pounds. Worthy isn't just a pass-catcher, as he can also factor in for the Chiefs as a kick returner on special teams. It remains to be seen exactly how KC will use Worthy on offense in his rookie season, but he'll certainly help with the team's depth at the position with Rashee Rice expected to be handed a multi-game suspension in 2024.

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Laiatu Latu Apr 25 10:30pm CT
Laiatu Latu

With the No. 15 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Colts selected UCLA defensive end Laiatu Latu. There was talk he would go earlier in the night. However, concerns surrounding his neck may have caused him to slide to the middle of the first round. But the Colts took a chance and could benefit by taking a player who totaled 34 sacks in two seasons with the Bruins. At 6'5'', 265 lbs., he may make an impact for IDP managers right out of the gate.

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Dallas Turner Apr 25 10:30pm CT
Dallas Turner

The Minnesota Vikings traded up to the 17th spot with Jacksonville to select Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner. Turner had an outstanding combine and totaled ten sacks last season. He can disrupt the opponent's run game with a great reaction time. The 21-year-old can also drop into coverage when needed. The Vikings were in the middle of the pack with 43 total sacks, and Turner should help them significantly.

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Jordan Love Apr 25 10:30pm CT
Jordan Love

The Green Bay Packers selected offensive tackle Jordan Morgan from Arizona with the 25th overall selection in the 2024 NFL draft. Morgan started all 37 games at left tackle. He could move to guard if necessary but does possess the skills to make a smooth transition. The Packers added former Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs to improve on their 1,905 total rushing yards last season. Adding Morgan will hopefully provide a boost to those numbers and protect Jordan Love's blind side.

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Amik Robertson Apr 25 10:10pm CT
Amik Robertson

The Detroit Lions traded up to the number 24 spot with the Dallas Cowboys to bolster their secondary with Alabama defensive back Terrion Arnold. Arnold intercepted five passes last season and yet he is not afraid to defend the run and initiate contact. The Lions were near the bottom of the pack with 375 total points allowed and total passing yards allowed with 3,846. The Lions saw this need and already began to address it with the free-agent acquisition of Amik Robertson from Las Vegas and the selection of Arnold will improve on the work done in the offseason.

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Brian Thomas Jr. Apr 25 10:00pm CT
Brian Thomas Jr.

The Jacksonville Jaguars wasted no time in replacing Calvin Ridley by selecting LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The former Tiger played alongside fellow standout Malik Nabers, but do not overlook his talent. The 21-year-old led the FBS with 17 receiving touchdowns in 2023 and totaled 1,177 receiving yards. Thomas Jr. will be a popular pick in both dynasty and redraft as he should slot in as the number two wide-out behind Christian Kirk and should be a solid option for Trevor Lawrence.

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Najee Harris Apr 25 9:40pm CT
Najee Harris

The Pittsburgh Steelers selected offensive tackle Troy Fautanu with the 20th overall selection of the NFL draft. Fautanu is six feet four inches tall and has long arms, which gives him good balance in pass protection. The 23-year-old started 31 games for Washington, with 29 of them at left tackle and two at left guard. Russel Wilson will get some much-needed blindside protection with this selection. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will also benefit from having Fautanu leading the way for them.

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Joe Burrow Apr 25 9:30pm CT
Joe Burrow

The Cincinnati Bengals selected offensive tackle Amarius Mims with the 18th overall pick. Mims, a former Georgia Bulldog, started only eight games at right tackle but was dominant and has quickness and strength to move defenders off the ball. The Bengals allowed 50 total sacks last season, which resulted in their franchise quarterback missing important games down the stretch. Mims will be part of the plan to fix a weakness and protect Joe Burrow.

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Aaron Donald Apr 25 9:30pm CT
Aaron Donald

The Los Angeles Rams are using their first first-round selection in eight years to select defensive end Jared Verse from Florida State. The 23-year-old is one of the most talented edge rushers in the class. He has a great first step and excellent closing speed to get off of blocks. Verse had nine total sacks last season and will be called upon to help the Rams overcome the loss of the now-retired Aaron Donald.

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Jarran Reed Apr 25 9:10pm CT
Jarran Reed

The Seattle Seahawks selected Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy with the 16th overall pick on Thursday evening. Murphy is credited with being an excellent run defender who can help against strong rushing attacks in the division. The Longhorn is effective when double-teamed and will join Jarran Reed and Jonathan Hankins on the interior.

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Derek Carr Apr 25 9:00pm CT
Derek Carr

With the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Saints selected Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga. The 22-year-old had a lengthy college career with the Beavers. While he got off to a slow start, he ended his final season by being named an All-American. New Orleans has plenty of areas that need to be addressed, but the line was arguably the team's biggest weakness. Fuaga has a chance to start right away and should help keep Derek Carr vertical more often than he was during the 2023-24 campaign.

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Bo Nix Apr 25 8:50pm CT
Bo Nix

With the No. 12 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Broncos selected Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. The 24-year-old had a lengthy collegiate career, playing at Auburn before ending his career with the Ducks. He appeared in 61 games combined for both teams, throwing for 15,352 yards, 108 touchdowns, and 26 picks. He also found the end zone 38 times using his legs. With Denver recently acquiring Zach Wilson, Nix may sit to begin the 2024-25 campaign. However, no matter when he gets on the field, the Broncos don't have the pieces needed to make him a reliable fantasy quarterback.

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Brock Bowers Apr 25 8:50pm CT
Brock Bowers

With the No. 13 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Raiders selected Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. There was talk the Jets would bring him to New York. However, the team bolstered their offensive line, so the 21-year-old will now head to Las Vegas. The Raiders are getting arguably the top tight end available, considering he amassed 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns off 175 catches in 40 collegiate games. Bowers also added five touchdowns on the ground. Nonetheless, he'll have a chance to make an immediate impact as a Raider, although concerns at the quarterback position may limit his fantasy upside.

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J.J. McCarthy Apr 25 8:40pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings are trading with the New York Jets from the No. 11 to the No. 10 spot in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Vikings get a 2024 first-round (No. 10) selection and a 2024 sixth-round pick, while the Jets receive a 2024 first-round pick (No. 11), 2024 fourth-round, and 2024 fifth-round pick. With the Vikings unable to deal with the New England Patriots to take Drake Maye, Minnesota selected Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Jets ended up taking Penn State offensive tackle Olu Fashanu.

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Aaron Rodgers Apr 25 8:40pm CT
Aaron Rodgers

After swapping picks with the Vikings, the Jets selected offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu with the No. 11 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. The 21-year-old had a potent collegiate career with Penn State and was named an All-American in 2023. While there were rumblings the Jets would draft a tight end, the team ultimately decided to protect Aaron Rodgers, who will be entering the 2024-25 campaign coming off a season-ending Achilles injury.

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J.J. McCarthy Apr 25 8:30pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The Minnesota Vikings traded up one spot from 11th to 10th with the New York Jets in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night to select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings wanted McCarthy all along and ended up not needing to trade into the top five to get their next franchise signal-caller. McCarthy won a national championship with the Wolverines last year but wasn't asked to do a lot with a strong running back behind him. He ran a pro-style offense in college, which should give him a high floor at the next level, and he'll be set up well for future success in Minnesota with a great one-two punch in receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The talent is there with McCarthy, but he also didn't have the big sample size that the other big-name QB prospects in this draft did. McCarthy won't necessarily start in his rookie year in 2024 with Sam Darnold also in town.

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Michael Penix Jr. Apr 25 8:20pm CT
Michael Penix Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. This is the first real surprise of this year's draft after the Falcons signed quarterback Kirk Cousins this offseason. Injuries are the main concern for Penix, but besides that, he showed plenty of long-term upside in his two seasons with the Huskies, culminating in a national championship appearance earlier this year. The 23-year-old lefty will obviously enter his first season in the NFL as a clear backup in Atlanta, but this pick will give the Falcons insurance with Cousins returning from a torn Achilles in 2023. This selection will be debated for a while, especially given all of Atlanta's needs on defense.

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Rome Odunze Apr 25 8:20pm CT
Rome Odunze

The Chicago Bears selected Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. Thats back-to-back picks out of Washington after quarterback Michael Penix Jr. surprisingly went eighth overall to the Atlanta Falcons. Odunze led the country in receiving yards in 2023 and is a special talent. He has length and excels at contested catches down the field. It helped that he had an excellent passer to throw him the football in Penix, but this kid is still special and should have an excellent career. The Bears have now added QB Caleb Williams and Odunze with their first two picks this year. While Odunze has plenty to like in the long-term, he'll be hard-pressed to make a huge impact in his rookie season in 2024 with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen set to be target hogs in this Bears offense.

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Will Levis Apr 25 8:10pm CT
Will Levis

The Tennessee Titans selected Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham with the seventh overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft on Thursday night. The Titans were hoping that Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt, the consensus No. 1 offensive lineman in this class, would fall to them at No. 7, but that didn't happen -- he went to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5. Latham is a solid fallback option, though, and should immediately boost the protection for young quarterback Will Levis in Tennessee. The 21-year-old is a mauler at right tackle and short start immediately in his rookie season in the NFL in 2024. He weighed in at 342 pounds, so he's a mountain of a man with long arms and huge hands. This pick is great news for Levis and running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

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