Lineup Prep: Week 13
Wed Nov 30 10:13am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Lawrence is playing at high level
It is crunch time for a lot of fantasy owners. We are nearing the end of the regular season in many formats, so all these upcoming games are so crucial to a lot of fantasy owners. Hopefully, your roster is in good shape and ready to make a run in the playoffs. It should be a fun finish to the season.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
To me, it really looks like the light has come on for Trevor Lawrence. He had maybe his best game as a pro last week, leading his team to an exciting victory with time running out. Confidence goes a long way and it sure seems Lawrence is brimming with that right now. And if you look at this schedule, Lawrence fantasy owners should be brimming with confidence as well. He has games against the Lions, Titans the next two and championship week has him against the Texans. Lawrence could be a difference maker in this year’s fantasy playoffs.
It is never too early to start planning ahead. So if you stream defenses or kickers, start looking at the teams with the best playoff schedules and plan accordingly. You might have extra room on your roster to start stashing players/teams with good schedules for the playoffs. A proactive owners is a winning owner.
The tight end position seems like a dart throw every week outside of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. This position has been a tough one this year. Some guys have played well at times, but the consistency has not been there. I’m going to be anxious to see the numbers after the season of championship teams that owned Kelce. I have a feeling it is going to be pretty high with the season he is having and the huge disparity between him and the rest of the tight ends.
Austin Ekeler is first overall in fantasy running back scoring and has run for just 554 yards. He has fewer than seven carries two of his last three games. That doesn’t mean a whole lot when you are posting reception numbers better than nearly every player in the league, including receivers. Ekeler has 80 catches on the year, including three games with double-digit receptions. He is so consistent because of his reception totals. Plus, he finds the end zone often on a team that puts up a lot of points. Ekeler might be the perfect fantasy back because of the way he accumulates his points. He is so safe for fantasy teams.
I know I have spoken about him before, but I can’t get over the season Geno Smith is having. This really came out of nowhere. It is crazy to think how good he has been this year. He is sixth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has multiple touchdowns five straight games and all but two this year. He had his third 300-yard game last week. And he has 20-plus fantasy points four straight. Smit has been so consistent all season, which is all you can ask for as a fantasy owner. I didn’t know if he could sustain his play all year, but I’m a believer. He is a legit QB1 and top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Smith has been a huge surprise in a good way at the quarterback spot, but Matt Ryan is the exact opposite. I had high hopes for him this year in Indy, but he looks awful right now. Ryan seems to be bracing for a hit every time he drops back to pass. And he rarely attempts a pass more than 10 yards. I didn’t think he would fall this far so quickly. I expected him to be a good stopgap for the Colts and play near the Philip Rivers level for the team. Well, that hasn’t been the case at all. Ryan has been a huge disappointment for me.
News and Notes: The Chiefs signed running back Melvin Gordon to their practice squad. Gordon has the potential to eventually earn some playing time with his new team. . . . .The Bears signed safety Adrian Colbert on Tuesday. The veteran gives the team some much needed depth at the position after the injury to starter Eddie Jackson.
HOT PLAY
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. Lawrence is playing the best football of his career right now. He is fifth in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three and ninth overall. He has 20-plus fantasy points three straight and five of six games. He scored a season-high 29.2 fantasy points last week, throwing for 321 yards and three scores. He can keep his hot ways this week against the Lions. Detroit allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and rank 29th overall against the pass.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. Jacobs is now second overall in fantasy running back scoring after his huge game last week. He topped 300 total yards and had maybe the best game of the entire season for any running back. Jacobs is a set it and forget it fantasy play. He has four games with 30-plus fantasy points. Jacobs could have another one of his huge games this week against a bad Chargers run defense. Los Angeles aloes the fifth most fantasy points to running backs and 28th overall against the run.
Treylon Burks, WR, Titans. Burks is quickly emerging as an elite receiver. He is growing on a weekly basis and has 70-plus yards each of his last two games. He has 17-plus fantasy points each of those games. Burks is almost a low-end WR1 with Ryan Tannehill back in the lineup and throwing him passes. He gets a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, but remains a good play for fantasy teams. The Titans are going to need to score some points and could be playing from behind, so look for Burks to get plenty of work in this one. Don’t be scared to use him because of the tough matchup.
David Montgomery, RB, Bears. Montgomery has played well since getting the bulk of the carries with Khalil Herbert out of the lineup. He has 100-plus total yards each of his last two games. And he has topped 14 fantasy points each of those games. He is a low-end No. 1 fantasy back in his current role. Montgomery plays the Packers, a team he had his only 100-yard rushing performance against this year in Week 2. The Packers are just 31st against the run, allowing 154.8-rushing yards per game.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers. Pickens is another young receiver coming into his own. He has been rock solid with Kenny Pickett as his starting quarterback. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight and four of five games. He has a knack for the acrobatic catch every week, showing his big-tie ability. He can hit double-digit fantasy points once again this week against the Falcons, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and are 28th overall against the pass.
COLD PLAYS
Demarcus Robinson, WR, Ravens. Robinson has showing flashes of big things lately, having 12-plus fantasy points two of four games. He also has disappeared at times, catching just a pass for 17 yards last week. He is a hit or miss fantasy play. Look for a miss this week. Robinson has a really tough matchup against a very good Broncos defense. Denver allows the second fewest fantasy points to receivers and are third overall against the pass.
Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman has produced despite getting poor quarterback play. He has double-digit fantasy points three straight games. He was targeted 11 times last week, giving him double-digit targets three games. He has put up a few stinkers, though, having fewer than 6.5 fantasy points two games. He is a tough player to bench but this might be a week to consider it. Pittman plays the Cowboys, a team that is first overall against the pass. Dallas allows just 177.7-passing yards per game.
Mac Jones, QB, Patriots. Jones played his best game of the season last week, throwing for 382 yards and two touchdowns. That was against a really bad Vikings secondary, though. Remember, Jones had fewer than 15 fantasy points three straight games before last week. He has some potential going forward, but is likely a matchup play. Jones gets the Bills in Week 13, a team that allows the eighth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Bills have allowed just 14-passing touchdowns and have 13 interceptions, which leads the league. This is not a week to use Jones.
Jeff Wilson, RB, Dolphins. Wilson had his worst game as a Dolphin last week, rushing 13 times for just 39 yards. He did find the end zone, which saved his fantasy day. It would not surprise to see him struggle this week, though. Wilson gets his old team, the 49ers. San Francisco allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and the fewest rushing yards in football. Wilson might be a player to consider benching despite his strong play since joining the Dolphins.
Devin Singletary, RB, Bills. Singletary played well last week but didn’t hit double-digit fantasy points despite rushing 14 times for 72 yards. He continues to get little work in the passing game, having just four catches his last three games. His lack of work in the passing game really hurts his fantasy ceiling. He might not find much room to run this week, which is a concern for his fantasy value. He has a tough matchup, playing the Patriots. New England allows the fewest fantasy points to running backs.
SLEEPERS
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams. Williams is emerging in the Rams backfield and could be the starter the rest of the way. He played a season high 70 percent of the snaps last week. He had 14 touches for 60 yards. The Rams are a mess right now, but Williams still has fantasy value. He can help fantasy teams as a flex play, especially this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the third most fantasy points to running backs and are 29th overall against the run.
Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Falcons. Zaccheaus had his best game of the season last week, catching five passes for 91 yards on eight targets. This wasn’t his first good fantasy game, though, having three games with double-digit fantasy points. He has produced at times. And his chances could be rising now with Kyle Pitts out of the lineup. Zaccheaus could be worth a flier this week against the Steelers, a team that allows the most fantasy points to receivers on the season.
Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson was a bust last week, failing to catch a pass on just two targets. He was playing great before that, though, having at least 12 fantasy points three straight games. He has become a big part of the passing game despite last week. Look for a rebound game this week against the Bucs. Tampa allows the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. And earlier this year, Johnson tied a season high with seven targets against the Bucs in Week 2.
Mike White, QB, Jets. White was tremendous in his first start of the year, going 22-of-28 for 315 yards and three touchdowns against a pretty good Bears pass defense. He made good decisions and was decisive with the football. He has shown a knack for the big game throughout his career when getting a chance to start. He might have another good showing this week against the Vikings. Minnesota has struggled against the pass much of the year and allow the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. If you are looking for a streaming option in Week 13, White is worth consideration.
Kendall Hinton, WR, Broncos. Hinton has at least three catches three straight games and at least 8.7 fantasy points each of those games. His numbers aren’t off the charts, but he is getting the looks and producing some. He also is on the field a ton, which is encouraging. He has played at least 88 percent of the snaps three straight games. We think he can hit double-digit fantasy points this week against a bad Ravens secondary. Baltimore allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers and are 27th overall against the pass.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Jaguars/Lions, Dolphins/49ers, Chiefs/Bengals, Chargers/Raiders.
Low Scoring Games: Packers/Bears, Commanders/Giants, Broncos/Ravens.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
On The Pat McAfee Show, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said "it's been tracking for LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels to go at No. 2" to the Washington Commanders. However, no final decision has been made yet, and Schefter reports that Daniels has had an interest in being other places besides D.C. Daniels appears to be the Commanders' preference at No. 2 overall in next week's draft, but perhaps something changes now if they don't think he'll be fully committed to playing for their organization. General manager Adam Peters said on Thursday that it's pretty much a done deal that Washington won't trade out of the No. 2 pick, but his nugget from Schefter could change some things. In the end, Schefter still thinks Daniels is the favorite to go second overall to the Commanders.
From RotoBaller
The Carolina Panthers want to make the 2024 draft about a larger point, rather than anything as granular as finding weapons for quarterback Bryce Young after he struggled mightily in his rookie season in 2023. "I think it's not about surrounding Bryce with great players; it's about building a great team, and then Bryce can just do his part of it," new head coach Dave Canales said. Even if the Panthers aren't specifically just looking to add weapons for Young, they'll surely need to bolster what was a terrible offensive line and running game. Carolina already traded for receiver Diontae Johnson this offseason and spent some money to upgrade the O-line. "It's not about getting playmakers for Bryce, it's about getting playmakers for our team," general manager Dan Morgan said.
From RotoBaller
Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard said that tight end Chris Ballard is off the NFL commissioner's exempt list and is back with the team during offseason workouts. Ogletree was recently cleared of domestic-violence charges following his arrest last December. Ogletree was put on the commissioner's exempt list on Dec. 30. The 25-year-old caught nine of his 21 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games (nine starts) in 2023 in what was essentially his rookie season after he didn't play at all in 2022 after being drafted in the sixth round (192nd overall) in 2022 out of Youngstown State due to a torn ACL he suffered in the preseason. Ogletree will be off the fantasy radar as tight end depth behind Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox in 2024.
From RotoBaller
The Denver Broncos don't sound too concerned with wide receiver Courtland Sutton missing the start of the team's voluntary offseason workouts earlier this week. "It's 100 percent voluntary. It's the first week of the offseason program. Sean has talked to Courtland; I've talked to Courtland. He's in a good place, and I'll just leave it at that," general manager George Paton said. Sutton reportedly didn't show up because he wants a new contract, especially after scoring a career-high 10 touchdowns in 2023. The 28-year-old has two years left on his current deal, but only $2 million is guaranteed. We have a ways to go before this comes an official holdout, but fantasy managers should expect plenty of regression in the TD department. Sutton should see plenty of targets with Jerry Jeudy now gone, but the QB situation in Denver is one of the worst in the league.
From RotoBaller
Former Carolina Panthers wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., one of the top free-agent receivers available with less than a week until the NFL draft, spent Thursday on a visit with the Los Angeles Chargers, according to a source. The Chargers may draft a receiver as early as the fifth overall pick next Thursday night, but they still need starters and Chark could be an option to help build depth at the position now that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both gone. The 27-year-old Chark had a 1,000-yard season with the Jaguars in 20219 and scored eight touchdowns, but injuries and inconsistency have limited him in four years since and he hasn't been reliable for fantasy managers. Chark might be intriguing as a late-round dart throw in fantasy drafts if he were to land in LA, but it would also depend on what the Chargers do at the position in the upcoming draft.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers will not be charged. Dynasty Analysis: Flowers was under investigation for domestic violence but it seems there was insufficient evidence to charge him. While dynasty owners can file this away and move forward, there should also be some caution in having Flowers on your roster, just in case this isn't an isolated incident. Regardless, Flowers will enter next season with a relatively high upside and his ADP won't change at this point.
Dynasty | Giants tight end Darren Waller is still mulling retirement. Dynasty Analysis: Waller has dealt with a lot of injuries over his career and it seems as if he's really considering calling it quits. The Giants are reportedly giving him a lot of time to consider his options and not forcing a decision, though it's quite certain they'd like to know prior to next week's NFL Draft as his loss could actually make Brock Bowers a consideration with their pick in the top ten. Regardless, it looks like Waller is certainly towards the end of his career and dynasty managers need to start making plans to be without him in the near future, possibly as soon as this year.
Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (arm) will not be cleared to practice until training camp this summer while he recovers from an arm injury. Joseph suffered the arm injury during the NFC Championship game loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and it's going to keep him out of workouts this spring. But as long as the 23-year-old doesn't suffer a setback when he gets back on the field in training camp, he should be ready for the start of the 2024 regular season and will operate as Detroit's starting free safety. The former third-rounder in 2022 out of Illinois has recorded 164 tackles (124 solo), eight interceptions, 19 passes defended, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 32 games (29 starts) in his first two years in the NFL. When healthy, Joseph is on the fantasy radar in IDP leagues for depth at the DB position.
From RotoBaller
Since releasing quarterback Russell Wilson in March, the Denver Broncos haven't added any other QB behind Jarrett Stidham, so they have a clear need at the position heading into the first round of the NFL draft next Thursday. It's a position that has seen 13 different players make a start since Peyton Manning retired after the Super Bowl-winning 2015 season. The Broncos are open to trading up within the first round to select a rookie signal-caller, but there has to be an actual path to taking a QB that the Broncos think they can drop into their offense in 2024. And it's going to take additional draft capital for the Broncos to move up into the top five, something they don't have much of after using high draft picks to acquire Wilson and head coach Sean Payton. General manager George Paton said "forcing" a pick for a QB could leave the Broncos in a tough situation again next year, but they remain open to all ideas.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants general manager Joe Schoen said on Thursday that he hasn't given tight end Darren Waller a deadline on his retirement decision this offseason. "Hopefully he's going to make a decision in the short term, but we're giving him time and space to make a decision on what he wants to do," Schoen said. Waller said in early March that he'd have a decision soon, but that hasn't come to fruition for the 31-year-old. A hamstring injury limited him to 12 games in 2023, and he finished with 52 catches for 552 yards and one touchdown. Waller is no longer in the prime of his career like he was with the Las Vegas Raiders and will be a pretty big injury risk as a low-end TE1 in fantasy if he decides to return for another season in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz said that recently signed running back J.K. Dobbins (Achilles), who is coming back from a torn Achilles, "should be" ready for training camp at the end of July. Hortiz also said the Dobbins signing is not likely to change the team's draft approach at running back. "You don't want to turn away from a good player because you've signed someone," Hortiz said. The Bolts lost do-it-all back Austin Ekeler to free agency this offseason, but they also picked up Gus Edwards in free agency, and he should fit new offensive coordinator Greg Roman's and head coach Jim Harbaugh's offensive system extremely well. The 25-year-old Dobbins has played in just nine regular-season games the last two seasons combined due to devastating lower-body injuries, so it's fair to wonder how much he has left moving forward.
From RotoBaller
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said that he and the team continue to work on a long-term contract extension, but he also said "it's not really the focus right now." General manager Trent Baalke confirmed that the team was talking about an extension with Lawrence. "We're working, but you can't force this stuff." Lawrence is entering the final year of his four-year rookie deal and is eligible to have his fifth-year option picked up, with the deadline coming on May 2. If the two sides don't work anything out by then, Jacksonville will surely pick up the option for the 2025 season and continue to work on an extension. The 24-year-old former first overall pick in 2021 out of Clemson took a slight step back from his Pro Bowl season in 2022 but was still a top-10 fantasy QB despite battling through an injury in the second half of 2023.
From RotoBaller
In an appearance on the Pat McAfee Show, NFL insider Peter Schrager said the Indianapolis Colts could be active in moving up for a top wide receiver in the 2024 NFL draft. "I think there's a chance the Colts move up for Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze," Schrager said. He believes the Cardinals will pick Harrison Jr. if they don't trade down from the No. 4 pick, but he could be in play for the Colts otherwise. While Indianapolis already has stud wideout Michael Pittman Jr. on the roster, they are lacking a true No. 2 wide receiver and need to surround sophomore quarterback Anthony Richardson with high-end weapons. Ultimately, the Colts are likely not a great landing spot for a top receiver because Pittman is already there, Richardson's rushing skill set limits the passing volume, and the team is incentivized to use Jonathan Taylor after extending his contract last year. However, it would be a big boost for Richardson, who has top-five QB upside in 2024.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters said the team is "real close" to finalizing their decision of who they will select on Thursday when the 2024 NFL draft begins and confirmed they will not trade out of the No. 2 overall pick. The Commanders desperately need a franchise quarterback, and they are presumably deciding between LSU's Jayden Daniels and North Carolina's Drake Maye. The 21-year-old Maye is viewed as more of a project with a sky-high ceiling, while Daniels, last year's Heisman Trophy winner, is 23 years old and ready to contribute right away. Either quarterback will have plenty of fantasy football intrigue in Washington, as both have plenty of mobility and could be throwing passes to Terry McLaurin in their rookie season.
From RotoBaller
The NFL reinstated Washington Commanders defensive end Shaka Toney and free agents C.J. Moore, Rashod Berry, Quintez Cephus, and Demetrius Taylor on Thursday, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The five players were suspended for the entire 2023 campaign for violating the league's gambling policy. Toney is the only player who remained on an NFL roster following the suspension, and it could be tough for the other four players to find landing spots considering their actions from last offseason. With major sports leagues trying to crack down on any suspicious gambling activity, this will be a situation worth monitoring over the next few years.
From RotoBaller
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers was allegedly involved in a domestic investigation in February, leading to uncertainty surrounding his status on the field in 2024. On Thursday, the NFL announced there was insufficient evidence that Flowers engaged in any activity that violated the league's personal conduct policy. That said, there will be no action taken by the NFL, and Flowers is free to participate in all team activities. The 23-year-old is on track to contribute in 2024 after a 77-catch, 858-yard, five-touchdown rookie campaign. Although he did a lot of his damage with Mark Andrews (ankle) out of action, the former Boston College star has plenty of ability and should push to compile WR2 numbers in his sophomore campaign.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters may not be looking to trade out of the No. 2 overall pick in the first round of next week's NFL draft. "We feel great about staying at No. 2. Don't see a lot of scenarios where we trade down," Peters said. This shouldn't be a big surprise after Washington dealt last year's starter, Sam Howell, to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason. As of right now, veteran Marcus Mariota is atop the QB depth chart in D.C., but the Commanders will most likely take either LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye with the second overall pick next Thursday night if another club like the Minnesota Vikings doesn't made an offer that the Commanders can't refuse to move up into the No. 2 spot.
From RotoBaller
The Minnesota Vikings brass is scheduled to meet with LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels for dinner on Thursday night in Baton Rouge, according to agent Ron Butler. Daniels is widely expected to come off the board in the top three picks of next week's NFL draft, so if the Vikings are going to land the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, they would need to trade up within the first round. Minnesota acquired the No. 23 overall pick in a trade this spring with the Houston Texans, so they now hold two first-round selections at Nos. 11 and 23. The Vikings are clearly in the market for a signal-caller after Kirk Cousins left in free agency and signed with the Atlanta Falcons, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the team trade up within the first five picks to select Daniels or another QB prospect.
From RotoBaller
Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle) said he feels very good health-wise after he missed the team's playoff lost against the Kansas City Chiefs due to an ankle injury. All signs point to Bernard being fully ready for training camp this summer and for the start of the 2024 regular season this fall. The 24-year-old was second in overall IDP fantasy points at the linebacker position in 2023, behind only Atlanta Falcons linebacker Foyesade Oluokun. In 17 regular-season games, Bernard racked up a career-high 143 tackles (84 solo), a career-high 6.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, nine QB hits, three interceptions, five passes defended and three fumble recoveries. As long as he's healthy in 2024, Bernard is going to be in play as a weekly starting linebacker in IDP formats.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots director of scouting/lead executive Eliot Wolf said, "we are open for business" on trades in next week's NFL draft, whether it be for moving up or down. Wolf said the team's first pick (No. 3 overall) doesn't have to be a quarterback but believes there will be a QB available that will be worth picking at third overall. The Patriots are keeping things open, but it would be a surprise if they didn't stand pat with the third overall pick to take their next franchise signal-caller after trading Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason. New England has already met with Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. If they stick at No. 3 and take a QB as everyone expects they will, the rookie QB will compete with veteran Jacoby Brissett for the starting job at training camp this summer.
From RotoBaller
