Postseason Shootout | RealTime Fantasy Sports

Lineup Prep: Week 3

Wed Sep 18 8:56am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Pitts can produce big Week 3

Just remember, it is a long season. Those are my words of wisdom before I get to my random thoughts for the week. Things tend to even out, especially when it comes to really good or below average fantasy players. There are always peaks and valleys throughout a season. Don’t get too down or up based on just a couple games. You can make bad decisions as a fantasy owner if you do this.

Now for my random thoughts for the week . . . . .

It is a little surprising the Panthers are benching Bryce Young. He has been awful but you have to wonder what this is going to do for him. Will he learn from the bench? Or will this set back his development? At this point, it just doesn’t seem Young is ready to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. He makes poor reads, holds onto the ball too long and just misses on throws he should make. Young has made next to no progress since entering the league last season. This miss could setback the Panthers franchise even more.

I really don’t want any part of the Chiefs backfield right now. If I had to choose one player, I’m going with Samaje Perine. I think he has the most three-down potential of the group but am not confident with using him. I really think this will be a hot-hand situation, rotating backs in and out of the lineup. It will be a tough fantasy situation to trust from week to week while Isiah Pacheco is out of the lineup.

Kyler Murray is back. He looks like the Kyler Murray before his ACL injury. He is extending plays and making good decisions. Plus, he is running the ball better, having 55-plus rushing yards each of his first two games. It seems we might have underestimated this Cardinals offense a little. It is looking good right now, mainly because of the resurgence of Murray.

I think the Saints are for real. This is a pretty complete team on both sides of the ball. And the offense is rolling, having one of the top running games in all of football. This just opens up things for everything, including Derek Carr and the passing game. And the defense has plenty of firepower on that side of the ball. The Saints are going to be a problem all season long.

I’m a little concerned about Anthony Richardson. He gets to throw behind the best offensive line in football, but is still missing on way too many passes. A lot of quarterbacks would kill to throw behind that Colts stout offensive line. Richardson is not taking full advantage and needs to shore up his accuracy in a hurry if he hopes to be a top quarterback in this league. Richardson still has fantasy value because of his ability to make plays with his legs but he won’t reach his potential if he keeps missing on easy throws. His accuracy remains a concern.

In his last 11 games, Patrick Mahomes has more than 20 fantasy points just three times and his high during that stretch is 23.8 fantasy points. He has not been the elite fantasy quarterback lately. You can’t count out Mahomes but his recent stretch is a little concerning. He just has not been the elite fantasy quarterback you expect. Hopefully, he gets out of this stretch soon. It is just surprising to see his production down.

Rookie Brock Bowers is already a must start for me. He has been heavily involved in the passing game, having 17 targets in two games. He has 11-plus fantasy points each of his first two games. Bowers is going to be a star in this league for years to come. He has a real chance to be the Sam LaPorta of this year. Bowers has that kind of talent.

The Tua Tagovailoa situation is a rough one. You have to feel for him right now. From a fantasy perspective, the Dolphins offense is a concern with Skylar Thompson starting. This is going to impact everything. He is raw and needs plenty of seasoning. I expect plenty of growing pains for him, hurting the value of both the receivers and running backs. You can’t bench guys like Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle but get ready to be disappointed by some bad showings. Not good.

News and Notes: The Panthers have benched quarterback Bryce Young. Andy Dalton has been named the starter. . . .The Chiefs signed running back Kareem Hunt to their practice squad on Tuesday. He could work his way into the lineup if he shows well in practice. . . . .Cincinnati signed defensive lineman Lawrence Guy on Tuesday. The Bengals are dealing with all sorts of injuries along the defensive line, so Guy could make an immediate impact. . . .The Giants signed kicker Greg Joseph off the Lions practice squad. He will take over the kicking duties for the Giants while Graham Gano is out.

HOT PLAYS

Jordan Mason, RB, 49ers. Mason continues to show well as a starter for the 49ers. He has hit the 100-yard rushing mark each of his first two games. He also has found the end zone each of those games, topping 17 fantasy points. He is a must start and legit No. 1 back as long as Christian McCaffrey is out of the lineup. He should keep up his hot ways this week against the Rams, a team that has really struggled to stop the run without Aaron Donald in the middle of their line. The Rams have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to running backs through two games.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons. Pitts has been pretty ho hum once again to start this season outside of his touchdown in Week 1. His numbers have been very similar through two games, having six receptions for 46 yards on the season. He has been targeted seven times. The Falcons passing game came to life late in last week’s game, though, which bodes well for Pitts going forward. His numbers could start improving, especially this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City has been awful against the pass, allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends to start the season. This could be a big week for Pitts.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions. Williams showed last week that his huge Week 1 wasn’t a fluke. He followed that with another very good performance, catching five passes for 79 yards on 11 targets. He has been targeted 20 times in two games and has a rush attempt in each game. Williams is becoming a legit low-end No. 1 or top No. 2 fantasy receiver. He looks like a different player out there. Look for him to keep up his hot ways this week against the Cardinals, a team that allows the ninth most fantasy points to receivers.

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals. Burrow got going last week after a poor showing in Week 1. He topped 20 fantasy points and threw for 258 yards with two touchdowns. The Bengals offense played better and Burrow looked as healthy as he has been in a while. Look for Burrow to build on that solid play this week against the Commanders. Washington allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars. Etienne has failed to top 55-rushing yards each of his first two games but found the end zone each of those games. The scores have given Etienne decent fantasy numbers despite not so great yardage totals. He has 12-plus fantasy points each of his first two games. He continues to play a ton for the Jaguars, playing at least 70 percent of the snaps both games. If he gets his usual workload this week against the Bills, look for his best game of the season. Buffalo has allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs and 131.5-rushing yards per game.

COLD PLAYS

Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts. Richardson is off to an erratic start to the season. He is missing on some throws he should make, causing for down fantasy production if he doesn’t do a lot on the ground running the ball. It could be more of the same for Richardson this week against a very good Bears defense. Chicago allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and gives up just 169.5-passing yards per game. If you have better options, go with them in Week 3.

Mike Evans, WR, Bucs. Evans had just three receptions for 42 yards last week. He has eight receptions for 103 yards in two games. Chris Godwin has been getting more of the looks in the passing game and producing big. Evans remains a factor in this offense but could have another disappointing showing this week against the Broncos. He should draw shutdown corner Patrick Surtain in coverage, which isn’t good news for Evans. Plus, the Broncos allow the fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Any Cowboys running back. The Cowboys are pretty much splitting the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. Deuce Vaughn did get a few more chances last week, though, and could get more going forward with Elliot and Dowdle doing little. The Cowboy ran 21 times for just 68 yards last week and have failed to top 100-rushing yards in either of their two games. We would just steer clear of any Cowboys back at this point. It isn’t worth the risk. The ceilings of these players just isn’t very high, especially this week against a Ravens defense that is first overall against the run. Baltimore allows just 49.5-rushing yards per game.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Mahomes is winning games and making plays, but his fantasy production has not been great. This actually dates back to last season late in the year as well. He just hasn’t produced the huge fantasy games you are accustomed to with Mahomes. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points each of his first two games this year. It is so tough to bench Mahomes because of his huge weekly ceiling but it might be another ho-hum showing for Mahomes in Week 3. He gets a very good Chargers secondary, a team that allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Aaron Jones, RB, Vikings. Jones had a game to forget last week. He was outplayed by backup Ty Chandler and lost a fumble at the goal line. Jones ran nine times for just 32 yards. He isn’t going to lose his job or anything, but Chandler could eat into his playing time a little more. Jones is still going to have some big games, but one of those might not be this week against the Texans. Houston allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs and are seventh overall against the run.

SLEEPERS

Alexander Mattison, RB, Raiders. Mattison has just 13 touches his first two games but has touchdowns each of the first two games. Mattison took more of a backseat to Zamir White last week but he wasn’t very good with his chances. This could open the door for Mattison to play this week. And if that happens, he could do some damage to the lowly Panthers. Carolina allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs and has been dreadful defensively this season.

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman hasn’t done a whole lot to start the season, but has about seven fantasy points each of his first two games. He is more than capable of a game with double-digit fantasy points, especially this week against the Cowboys. This seems a good match for Bateman, playing against a Cowboys secondary that has some injury issues. We expect the Cowboys to do all they can to take away Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, leaving more favorable matchups for Bateman.

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings. Darnold is off to a strong start as the Vikings starter, having multiple scores each of his first two games. He scored 23.6 fantasy points last week against a good 49ers defense in the Vikings upset victory. Darnold is looking like a solid spot starter for fantasy teams. And this week could be a time to use him, playing the Texans. Houston allows the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. Swift has been a disaster to start the season. He has 24 carries of just 48 yards, averaging two yards per carry. The Bears offensive line is a mess, causing all sorts of issues for both the running and passing games. If the Bears are ever going to have a good week rushing the ball, this is the week. The Bears play the Colts, a team dead last against the run. The Colts allow 237-rushing yards per game. Give Swift a shot in this matchup to get right.

Demarcus Robinson, WR, Rams. The Rams are devastated by injury at receiver. If we had to pick an option to consider using going forward, it would be Robinson. He seems the best bet for consistent production and the Rams clearly believe in him. His stats aren’t anything special each of his first two games, but Robinson is playing a ton. He has played 92 percent of the snaps each of his first two games. He could be a sneaky play this week against the 49ers, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Texans/Vikings, Eagles/Saints, Lions/Cardinals, Chiefs/Falcons.

Low Scoring Games: Patriots/Jets, Bears/Colts, Broncos/Bucs, Giants/Browns, Chargers/Steelers, Packers/Titans, Panthers/Raiders.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 3

The Paur Report