RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 12

Sun Nov 27 10:02am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

No teams will be on a bye for Week 12, which helps offset additional games being played Thursday. Let’s dig into the teams that will take the field for the weekend slate and highlight some players to consider for your DFS lineups, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert, LAC at ARI ($7,000): Herbert has dealt with a lot of injuries at wide receiver this season. He began the season by throwing at least two touchdown passes in three of his first four games. Since then, he has thrown at least two touchdowns in just two of six games. However, Keenen Allen is back, and he immediately made an impact with five receptions for 94 yards last week. The Cardinals are tied for the second-most passing touchdowns allowed in the league, so this has the makings of being one of Herbert’s finer performances.

Geno Smith, SEA vs. LV ($6,000): Smith has already set a new career best with his 17 touchdown passes this season. He has at least two touchdown passes in eight of 10 games. This is a great matchup for him against the Raiders, who have allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns (17) in the league.

Player to Avoid

Aaron Rodgers, GB at PHI ($5,800): The good news with regards to Rodgers is that he has thrown at least two touchdown passes in a game eight times this season. The bad news is that he isn’t racking up many passing yards, throwing for fewer than 230 yards in four of the last five games. The Eagles have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns all season, so if Rodgers can’t produce many scores in this game, his overall stat might be ugly.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, LV at SEA ($7,700): Jacobs was busy in a win over the Broncos last week, rushing 24 times for 109 yards. He also caught three of four targets for an additional 51 yards. He already has more rushing yards through 10 games this season (930) than he had over 15 games last season (872). The key is, he has been given at least 20 carries in five of the last seven games. Another juicy stat line could be coming versus a Seahawks team that has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game in the league.

Jeff Wilson Jr., MIA vs. HOU ($5,900): The Texans have allowed the most rushing yards per game and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns in the league. Deploying running backs against them on a weekly basis in DFS has been a sound strategy. It’s not ideal that Wilson has splits carries with Raheem Mostert, but he had 17 carries against the Browns in Week 10, compared to just eight carries for Mostert.

Player to Avoid

Alvin Kamara, NO at SF ($7,300): The 49ers have a great defense. They have been particularly tough against running backs, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. As if this matchup wasn’t discouraging enough, Kamara only has three total touchdowns this season, each of which came in Week 8 against the Raiders.

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf, SEA vs. LV ($6,500): For those who decide to roll with Smith at quarterback, stacking him with Metcalf is a viable strategy. As previously mentioned, the Raiders have allowed a lot of touchdowns through the air. Metcalf has four receiving touchdowns this season and has been targeted inside the red zone at least one time in each of the last six games.

Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. ATL ($5,800): McLaurin has been more productive since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. With Carson Wentz at the helm for the first six games of the season, McLaurin caught 22 passes for 367 yards and one touchdown. Over five games with Heinicke, he has 28 receptions for 425 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, potentially setting up McLaurin for another valuable stat line.

Player to Avoid

Allen Lazard, GB at PHI ($5,800): The Packers have certainly been trying to get Lazard involved, throwing him 25 targets over the last three games. The problem is, he only posted a modest 12 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have allowed just six touchdown receptions to wide receivers, so Lazard enters this matchup with limited upside.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, KC vs. LAR ($7,700): With injuries piling up at wide receiver, the Chiefs relied on their star tight end to dispatch the Chargers last week. He was targeted 10 times, finishing with six receptions, 115 yards and three touchdowns. He has recorded at least six receptions and 81 receiving yards in five straight games and has the highest floor of any tight end in the league. 

Foster Moreau, LV at SEA ($3,400): The Seahawks have been torched by tight ends this season, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight ends are averaging 14.9 yards per reception against them, and have caught five touchdown passes. Moreau is averaging 12.0 yards per reception this season, leaving him with a favorable chance to exploit this matchup.

Player to Avoid

Mark Andrews, BAL at JAX ($6,500): This is more about balancing your budget than anything else. With all of the injuries at tight end, it makes sense to either pay up for one of the top-tier options, or just punt this position with a player who has a really cheap salary. For those who don’t want to punt it, Kelce is a safer option than Andrews, who will be playing in his second game since dealing with a shoulder and a knee injury. 

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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Player Notes
J.J. McCarthy Apr 24 10:50pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

When asked by Rich Eisen if he has any idea on where he's going to end up in this week's NFL draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy hinted at the New York Giants, who currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the first round on Thursday night. "I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I've spent the most time with. They're a phenomenal staff," McCarthy said. The young QB's stock has been rising rapidly ever since his pro-day workout. Reports suggest the Giants and Vikings could be in a raise to trade up to select McCarthy, who is attractive because of his experience running a pro-style offense in college. With Daniel Jones (knee) coming off a torn ACL and with no guaranteed money owed to him beyond 2024, the G-Men have done their due diligence on QBs in this year's draft and feel like a lock to take one at some point this week.

From RotoBaller

Joe Thomas Apr 24 8:30pm CT
Joe Thomas

Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer thinks Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt will either be taken by the Los Angeles Chargers or Tennessee Titans in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft. Alt has been compared to Joe Thomas, although Alt is a little bit bigger and longer. The son of an NFL lineman is still learning his position and won't turn 22 years old until after the Super Bowl. One veteran evaluator had Alt behind only Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. among the best players in this year's draft class. The Chargers hold the No. 5 overall pick on Thursday night, while the Titans sit at No. 7. Both teams could use an athletic tackle like Alt, with the Bolts looking to bolster their offensive line while transitioning to more of a run-first offense.

From RotoBaller

Bo Nix Apr 24 8:20pm CT
Bo Nix

Denver Broncos' connections to Oregon quarterback Bo Nix have persisted with the 2024 NFL draft just a day away on Thursday night. Nix is a player that teams could wait on until the second round, but the Broncos don't have a current second-round pick this year and are slated to select in the first round at No. 12. Their acquisition of former first-rounder Zach Wilson adds another layer to their QB situation heading into Thursday evening. The Broncos have done their homework on the QB draft class -- they hosted Washington's Michael Penix Jr. on a top-30 visit and watched Michigan's J.J. McCarthy work out -- and have discussed a potential trade up in the first round. However, they have plenty of other needs and have also talked about trading down. Right now, Jarrett Stidham and Wilson are slated to compete for the starting job in training camp.

From RotoBaller

Michael Penix Jr. Apr 24 8:10pm CT
Michael Penix Jr.

The Las Vegas Raiders are thought to be high on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and if the QB market starts drying up quickly in the first round of Thursday night's NFL draft and they feel the need to trade up in order to avoid being shut out, the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 and the Tennessee Titans at No. 7 are two teams that people think are willing to trade down. The Raiders would love to be able to get up high enough to take LSU's Jayden Daniels to reunite him with head coach Antonio Pierce, but they know they might not be able to do that. The Raiders have talked with the Arizona Cardinals about what it would take to trade up to No. 4, but Vegas' interest in that pick would likely cool off significantly if Daniels is among the top three picks, as expected.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Apr 24 8:00pm CT
Drake Maye

New England Patriots ownership seems to have a strong preference to come out of the first round of this year's NFL draft with a quarterback, so moving back to, say, No. 11 with the Minnesota Vikings or No. 13 with the Las Vegas Raiders might be too far of a drop for the team to still ensure their ability to do that. But if they move back only three spots to No. 6 in a trade with the New York Giants, they could still be in position to pick a QB in the first round and add multiple extra premium picks. The Patriots gathered information on Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. in the pre-draft process in case they decide to trade down. The Pats appear to be high on him, but ESPN's Dan Graziano doesn't think he'll be in consideration if they stay at No. 3. Most pundits believe New England will take North Carolina's Drake Maye if they stick in the third spot.

From RotoBaller

J.J. McCarthy Apr 24 7:50pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

The Athletic's Jeff Howe predicts that New York Giants will trade the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL draft and a 2025 second-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in order to move up to fourth overall to take Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy on Thursday night. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort is eager to trade down for a second straight year. If LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye remain available at No. 4, the Minnesota Vikings or Las Vegas Raiders would probably become more aggressive in pursuing the fourth overall pick. "I think there's going to be a race to McCarthy between the Giants and Vikings," a coach said. McCarthy doesn't have the upside that the top three QBs in this class do, but rival executives cited concerns with Giants current QB Daniel Jones' (knee) health after tearing his ACL and dealing with a neck injury in 2023.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Apr 24 7:40pm CT
Drake Maye

The Athletic's Jeff Howe thinks No. 3 to the New England Patriots in Thursday night's NFL draft feels like the spot for North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, although a couple executives made a case for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. Maye has prototypical size, arm strength and athletic ability, but there's genuine concern about his inconsistencies in 2023, and his tape shed light on some erratic throws and tendencies. He has a reputation as a high-character person with great leadership abilities. Maye would be the more traditional pick at No. 3 to the Pats, with McCarthy being viewed as more of a surprise. If Maye is still available at No. 3, one executive thinks the Minnesota Vikings "would move heaven and Earth" to try and move up to draft him. If Maye lands in New England, he could sit and learn behind veteran Jacoby Brissett in 2024.

From RotoBaller

Micah Parsons Apr 24 7:30pm CT
Micah Parsons

The Dallas Cowboys officially picked up hybrid defensive end Micah Parsons' fifth-year option for the 2025 season on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the move. Parsons' salary is worth $21.32 million as a defensive end, which is the position at which he played the majority of his snaps in 2023. The 24-year-old former 12th overall pick in 2021 out of Penn State has been a beast rushing the passer so far in his first three NFL seasons. He's made the Pro Bowl in all three seasons and has a total of 213 tackles (142 solo), 40.5 sacks, 51 tackles for loss, 89 QB hits, eight passes defended, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries (one returned for a touchdown) in 50 regular-season starts. Parsons had 64 tackles and a career-high 14 sacks in 2023 and will once again be a highly coveted pass-rusher in IDP fantasy formats this fall.

From RotoBaller

Jayden Daniels Apr 24 7:30pm CT
Jayden Daniels

Word around the league is that the Washington Commanders have advocates in their building for both LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and North Carolina QB Drake Maye. However, almost everyone polled for The Athletic's story believed Daniels was destined for Washington with new general manager Adam Peters hot for Daniels. The belief from rival teams is that the Commanders had been leaning toward Maye much earlier in the pre-draft process, but Daniels has done enough to lock himself into the No. 2 pick. One executive from a team outside of the top 10 wouldn't rule out a brief Daniels slide, perhaps down to No. 4. Still, it's highly unlikely Daniels drops out of the top five. If he goes to D.C., he'll be favored to start from Day 1 in his rookie season.

From RotoBaller

Tarik Cohen Apr 24 7:20pm CT
Tarik Cohen

Carolina Panthers linebacker Shaq Thompson (leg), offensive guard Austin Corbett (knee), pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and running back Tarik Cohen (Achilles) have all been taking part in drills during voluntary offseason workouts this week. Meanwhile, offensive guard Chandler Zavala (knee) and linebackers D.J. Wonnum (quadriceps) Amare Barno (knee) weren't participating in drills. Thompson, who suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 last year against the New Orleans Saints, is the most notable name of this group. The 30-year-old should be ready to go for training camp and the preseason later this year as long as he doesn't suffer a setback before then. The former 25th overall pick in 2015 out of Washington recorded 100-plus combined tackles in each of his previous four seasons with Carolina before getting hurt in 2023.

From RotoBaller

Trey Hendrickson Apr 24 7:10pm CT
Trey Hendrickson

Cincinnati Bengals three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson has requested to be traded from the Bengals, according to a league source. Hendrickson is due to make $15 million in 2024 and is looking for more long-term security than the Bengals have been willing to offer. It remains to be seen if the 29-year-old's wish will be granted with the first round of the 2024 NFL draft coming on Thursday evening. The former third-round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2017 out of Florida Atlantic has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last three seasons with the Bengals. In 17 starts in 2023, he had a career-high 43 tackles (28 solo), a career-high 17.5 sacks, 16 tackles for loss, 25 QB hits and three forced fumbles. Even if he heads to a new team for 2024, Hendrickson should still be in play as a weekly starting defensive lineman in IDP fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Ezekiel Elliott Apr 24 7:10pm CT
Ezekiel Elliott

The Dallas Cowboys are currently meeting with free-agent running back Ezekiel Elliott's representatives around the facility on Wednesday, a day before the start of the 2024 NFL draft, according to a source. There has been mutual interest from both sides in a reunion this offseason as the Cowboys look to bolster their running back position after losing Tony Pollard in free agency. As of right now, Dallas' RB room consists of Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis, Royce Freeman and Snoop Conner. The 28-year-old Elliott had 184 carries for 642 yards (career-low 3.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns while adding 51 catches for 313 yards and another two scores through the air in 17 games for the New England Patriots in 2023. At this point in his career, Zeke needs volume to be fantasy relevant, and that probably won't happen if he returns to Dallas.

From RotoBaller

Jim Harbaugh Apr 24 4:00pm CT
Jim Harbaugh

The Los Angeles Chargers are set to undergo a rebuilding phase following the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the departures of longtime offensive weapons Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. L.A. has been rumored to be a top landing spot for Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison or LSU wideout Malik Nabers, but Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report suggests they are likely to pick an offensive tackle if they stay at pick No. 5. Notre Dame's Joe Alt is expected to be the first player at the position off the board. Alt has been mocked to the Tennessee Titans at pick No. 7 for much of the offseason, so the Chargers picking the 2023 first-team All-American would shake things up drastically. The Chargers have a lot of options with teams potentially trying to move up for a quarterback, so they are one of the key teams to monitor in the first round on Thursday.

From RotoBaller

Drake Maye Apr 24 3:40pm CT
Drake Maye

The New York Giants are in an interesting predicament at the quarterback spot. The organization signed Daniel Jones (knee) to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, but he didn't play well in 2023, and he is coming off a torn ACL. There has been plenty of buzz surrounding New York selecting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that they could pass on a quarterback if North Carolina's Drake Maye isn't available at pick No. 6. "Most teams believe if Maye is off the board, the Giants' most likely scenario is to go wide receiver to land a player who can help an offense that was last in the league in yards after the catch in 2023," Russini wrote. If the reports are true, look for New York to target LSU's Malik Nabers in that draft slot. That said, Washington's Rome Odunze is likely in consideration as well.

From RotoBaller

Michael Penix Jr. Apr 24 3:30pm CT
Michael Penix Jr.

University of Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has seemingly been rising draft boards this offseason, and NFL insider Dianna Russini of The Athletic reports that he could enter the discussion to be one of the first four quarterbacks off the board. "It's been assumed the top four QBs are Williams, Daniels, Maye, and McCarthy," Russini wrote "But don't be surprised if Penix enters the discussion come Thursday." Penix, who will be 24 years old during his rookie season, had a monster two-year stretch with Washington after four injury-riddled campaigns at Indiana. In 2022 and 2023, combined, the lefty posted 9,544 passing yards, 67 passing touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. He ran between a 4.51 and 4.57 forty-yard dash at the Huskies' Pro Day, so his 226 career rushing yards might not demonstrate his full rushing ability.

From RotoBaller

Jared Goff Apr 24 3:20pm CT
Jared Goff

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff had a monster 2023 season, throwing for 4,575 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He led Detroit to the No. 3 seed in the NFC and the organization won two playoff games in a single postseason for the first time since 1957. On Wednesday, the team signed Pro Bowl wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell to high-dollar four-year contract extensions, but Goff is reportedly not close to agreeing to a new long-term deal. According to Adam Schefter, no new deal is "imminent" as of now. This will be an interesting development to watch play out, as the former Los Angeles Rams No. 1 overall pick is entering the final year of his contract in the Motor City and could become a free agent next offseason.

From RotoBaller

Amon-Ra St. Brown Apr 24 3:13pm CT
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Dynasty | The Lions have signed wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: The contract is basically a four-year, $120 million extension with $77 million guaranteed, the most ever for a wide receiver in NFL history. It's a huge haul for St. Brown, who has quickly established himself as one of the best players in the NFL. After his 119/1,515/10 season last year, the Lions were going to either pay him or risk losing him after his rookie deal expired. They've clearly chosen to build around him and he should be firmly cemented as a WR1 in dynasty moving forward. St. Brown is an easy target for any team looking for a premier centerpiece to their dynasty team as the best could truly be yet to come.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Russell Wilson Apr 24 3:13pm CT
Russell Wilson

Dynasty | The Steelers are not expected to pick up the fifth-year option on the contract of Justin Fields. Dynasty Analysis: This isn't much of a surprise as the Steelers would be on the hook for $25 million in his fifth year and don't even know if they want him as their long-term starter at this point. Pittsburgh is likely going to go into the season with Russell Wilson as their starter but also quietly evaluating Fields to be a possible successor. We'll see what happens but Fields looks like a player who could be a sneaky buy in the next few months leading up to the season as his ADP has tanked.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

Justin Jefferson Apr 24 3:13pm CT
Justin Jefferson

Dynasty | The Bengals are picking up the fifth year option on the contract of Ja'Marr Chase. Dynasty Analysis: Consider this a placeholder as Cincinnati now needs to prepare to make Chase the highest paid receiver in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown has set the market with a four-year, $120 million extension ($77 million guaranteed), so the Bengals are going to need to assemble a few armored cars here soon. Chase and Justin Jefferson should both be set to sign historic deals and while the option being picked up buys the Bengals one more season, dynasty managers shouldn't worry about him hitting free agency any time soon. Chase remains a bona fide candidate for the top overall selection in dynasty leagues.

From Dynasty League Fantasy

J.J. McCarthy Apr 24 2:00pm CT
J.J. McCarthy

Former Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning recently talked with Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and said the Broncos are interested in him with the 2024 NFL draft beginning on Thursday night. "I know Denver is very interested in him and it sounded like a place he'd love to come to but it's a little bit out of his control," Manning told Denver Sports over the air. McCarthy played in a pro-style offense at Michigan and led the Wolverines to the national championship earlier this year. He wasn't allowed to throw the ball that much in college, but he really impressed at his pro day and has been rising up draft boards ever since. McCarthy is a candidate to go in the first five picks on Thursday night, although it seems unlikely that Denver has the ammunition to pull off a trade up into the top five this year to select McCarthy, especially after trading for Zach Wilson on Tuesday.

From RotoBaller