Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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Hot Plays, Fades and Sleepers: Week 3

Player Notes
Tee Higgins Sep 20 11:20pm CT
Tee Higgins

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) plans to play against the Washington Commanders on Monday night. The wideout has battled a hamstring injury, keeping him off the field for the Bengals' previous two contests. Fortunately, he's feeling better. "I feel great," said Higgins after practicing in a limited capacity on Friday. "Obviously, unfortunate with the injury, sat out the first two weeks but finally ready to get my feet wet this season and ready to go." Under normal circumstances, Higgins is a starting fantasy receiver in any format. However, there's a chance he could see fewer snaps than usual. As a result, Andrei Iosivas, coming off a two-touchdown outing versus the Kansas City Chiefs, could remain involved. Still, Iosivas' fantasy outlook would have been more promising had Higgins been in line to miss Monday's contest. On the other hand, Higgins' anticipated return is good news for Joe Burrow all around.

From RotoBaller

Chris Boswell Sep 20 11:20pm CT
Chris Boswell

Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell has been incredibly reliable thus far this season but will face his toughest test yet in the team's home opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers defense has been stout through two weeks, surrendering the fewest points and second-fewest offensive yards in the NFL. Because this is expected to be a sluggish, low-scoring affair, it is difficult to project Boswell for a ton of involvement. Fantasy managers would be wise to look elsewhere for a starting option this week.

From RotoBaller

Pat Freiermuth Sep 20 11:10pm CT
Pat Freiermuth

Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth has been quiet to start his fourth professional campaign and will hope to turn things around against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3. Although the Chargers have surrendered the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends through two weeks of the season, this contest isn't expected to offer much in the way of offensive firepower. That said, Freiermuth is tied for the team lead in receptions and has the second-most targets in Pittsburgh thus far this season, so his role in the offense should remain consistent. Given the landscape of the tight end position in fantasy right now, there are very few options that offer both a high ceiling and a safe floor. Freiermuth seems to have the latter, making him a fine yet uninspiring low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Malik Nabers Sep 20 11:10pm CT
Malik Nabers

New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers is already a must-start in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns. Coming off a strong Week 2, where he posted 23.7 half-PPR points on 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown (his first career TD) versus Washington, Nabers is emerging as a go-to target for Daniel Jones (he had a whopping 18 targets sent his way). The Browns' secondary, while solid, has allowed 12.1 yards per reception to receivers through two weeks. Nabers is a big-play threat with a 32.9% target share, making him a high-upside start this Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Devin Singletary Sep 20 11:00pm CT
Devin Singletary

New York Giants running back Devin Singletary enters a Week 3 matchup against the Cleveland Browns with momentum after a solid Week 2 performance against the Washington Commanders, where he posted 16.2 half-PPR points on 95 rushing yards and a touchdown. Singletary's efficiency on the ground (5.9 YPC) will be tested against a Browns defense, allowing just 5 YPC through two games, ranking them in the top eight against the run. However, Cleveland has surrendered 229 rushing yards to the opposition in two weeks, showing they can be vulnerable. Expect Singletary to remain a viable flex option in deeper leagues, with his potential for red zone work giving him an edge if the Giants' offense can sustain drives.

From RotoBaller

Jaylen Warren Sep 20 10:50pm CT
Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren was given 11 total opportunities in Week 2 and should continue to see his role expand in the team's home opener against the Los Angeles Chargers. This contest is expected to be slow-paced and low-scoring with both teams leaning heavily on the run. Warren isn't likely to receive more carries than backfield mate Najee Harris, but the former has been the more efficient and explosive runner with more consistent usage as a pass-catcher. On paper, this is a difficult matchup for Warren as the Chargers rank bottom-five in the league this season in rushing yards allowed. However, Los Angeles gave up plenty of production to fantasy running backs in 2023, especially those involved in the passing game. The 25-year-old Warren isn't the most exciting fantasy option this week but he should see enough work to warrant flex consideration.

From RotoBaller

Daniel Jones Sep 20 10:50pm CT
Daniel Jones

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones enters Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns looking to build on his Week 2 performance, where he bounced back with 22.1 fantasy points against the Washington Commanders. Jones' dual-threat ability is always enticing, and last week, he rushed for 32 yards and threw two touchdowns, showcasing his fantasy upside. However, the Browns' defense has been stout, allowing just 6.4 yards per pass attempt per game in 2024. That said, Jones' rushing ability will be critical as Cleveland has struggled against the rush, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for a total of 229 rushing yards through two weeks. Expect Jones to finish as a low-end QB2 in Week 3, with his rushing upside elevating his fantasy floor.

From RotoBaller

George Pickens Sep 20 10:30pm CT
George Pickens

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens has looked every bit the part of a WR1 in 2024 but is yet to score as a top-24 fantasy option in half-PPR formats. He'll hope to change that at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3. This is projected to be a low-scoring, run-heavy affair, but if both defenses continue to defend the run as well as they have through two weeks, shots will need to be taken downfield. Pickens is not only the clear favorite target of quarterback Justin Fields but also the premier vertical threat in Pittsburgh. Although the third-year pro could disappoint if the Steelers struggle to move the ball, he offers plenty of upside as a WR2 or flex option in most fantasy leagues.

From RotoBaller

Justin Tucker Sep 20 10:20pm CT
Justin Tucker

Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker is one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history, yet he's been the only kicker to miss more than one field after the first two games of the season. Both misses were 50+ yards, but that's where he's normally the most automatic. While he missed another one in Week 2, his volume saved his fantasy week as he went 3-for-4 in field goals and 2-for-2 in extra points. His Week 3 matchup, the Dallas Cowboys, is ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing kickers as they've given up an average of 7.5 points so far. The Ravens' confidence in Tucker still hasn't wavered, so he should see plenty of opportunities to kick field goals from deep, but his "Automatuck" nickname may be on the way out the door.

From RotoBaller

Isaiah Likely Sep 20 10:10pm CT
Isaiah Likely

Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely came crashing down in Week 2 after a huge effort in Week 1 made him one of the hottest waiver wire additions in all of fantasy football. The Coastal Carolina product went from 12 targets and nine receptions against the Kansas City Chiefs to three targets and two receptions against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2. After posting a TE1 finish in half-PPR formats, he fell right down to TE21. Likely's success comes down to matchups, game script, and whether or not Mark Andrews is getting heavily game-planned against. The Dallas Cowboys present a tougher matchup for the passing game, but they showed some holes and weaknesses against the New Orleans Saints in Week 2. Likely only saw an 8.9% target share in Week 2 which is something fantasy managers can't rely on, and that moves him down the list and onto the bench.

From RotoBaller

Najee Harris Sep 20 10:10pm CT
Najee Harris

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has seen plenty of work through two weeks and will hope to score his first touchdown of the campaign against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3. Both teams rank top-three in the NFL in rush play percentage and bottom-three in points allowed, which explains why this contest is projected to be the lowest-scoring of the week. That said, Pittsburgh should lean on Harris and the running game, even against a Chargers defense that has surrendered the fifth-fewest yards on the ground thus far this season. Backfield mate Jaylen Warren will likely see an expanded role, but fantasy managers should not shy away from starting Harris as a low-end RB2 or flex option on Sunday.

From RotoBaller

Justice Hill Sep 20 10:10pm CT
Justice Hill

Baltimore Ravens running back Justice Hill remains the go-to option in the backfield when it comes to passing downs. In two games, he's seen five carries for 25 yards compared to eight receptions on 10 targets for 62 yards. The only fantasy value that Hill currently has is in PPR formats and games turn into good, old-fashioned shootouts. Hill could potentially start in a flex spot for fantasy managers in very deep leagues after the Dallas Cowboys were gashed both on the ground and through the air by Alvin Kamara in Week 2. There are likely to be running lanes and flats open for Hill to find, but Derrick Henry will be the first one to get a crack at those opportunities. Hill is better left on the bench as he barely comes into the RB3 conversation.

From RotoBaller

Mark Andrews Sep 20 10:00pm CT
Mark Andrews

Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews has been a shell of his former self when it comes to notching fantasy points. He clocks in as the TE16 in half-PPR formats while his teammate, Isaiah Likely, sits at TE1 due to his huge output in Week 1. The veteran saw a bit more work in Week 2 and continues to get separation while getting targeted during 19% of his routes run. Athletically and physically it doesn't appear that he's lost a step, so his big games seem to be on the way at some point. The problem is Lamar Jackson doesn't seem to be able to feed more than one pass-catcher per game. He'll go up against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, however, who did give up seven receptions for 71 yards to the Browns' tight ends in Week 1. Despite a lackluster week against the Raiders, Andrews still finished TE11 and could see a bigger target share in Week 3 to get the team back on the winning track.

From RotoBaller

Derrick Henry Sep 20 9:40pm CT
Derrick Henry

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry hasn't hit the ceiling that many expected yet, but he's remained consistent thus far and has found the end zone at least once in each game. He looked a lot better in Week 2 compared to Week 1 and received five more carries on top of it. In Week 3, the Ravens take on the Dallas Cowboys who just gave up 115 yards and three touchdowns to Alvin Kamara and a total of 190 yards on the ground with four scores. The biggest roadblock for Henry, at this point, has been the team's play-calling decisions. As long as the veteran is in the game and getting 18 or more carries, he should be able to finish in RB1 territory. As it currently stands, Henry is the RB18 in half-PPR formats, but he should see that number rise with more time in this offense.

From RotoBaller

Zay Flowers Sep 20 9:40pm CT
Zay Flowers

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers has been Lamar Jackson's favorite target of the season through two games, and that's not likely to change any time soon. The offensive game plan has manufactured plenty of touches for Flowers, but there haven't been many big plays just yet. He scored his first touchdown against the Raiders in Week 2 and has received 21 targets thus far. In this Week 3 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, however, he'll go up against a tougher defensive unit with some capable defensive backs. Right now, the Cowboys are on the stingier side when it comes to fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers as they come in at 18th. With the run game hurting the Cowboys the most, the Ravens may move to more of a ground game if they aren't too far behind, which would leave Flowers around the WR2/flex area in half-PPR formats.

From RotoBaller

Geno Smith Sep 20 9:30pm CT
Geno Smith

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will be a QB2 in Week 3 but he could be started if you find yourself in a pinch. Smith has scored at least 17.88 fantasy points in both games this season. If you are in a tough spot with an injured Jordan Love (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), then Smith is a fine spot start this weekend against a beatable Miami Dolphins defense. Expect Smith to score around his usual 18 points in Week 3.

From RotoBaller

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Sep 20 9:30pm CT
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba should be a solid fantasy asset in Week 3. His huge breakout game in Week 2 inspires confidence that this new Seahawks regime is committed to getting him the ball. While one week should not fully change your opinion on Smith-Njigba, his 16 targets to Tyler Lockett's two is encouraging moving forward. Outside of cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the Dolphins do not have a scary secondary. If the Seahawks even give Smith-Njigba half the volume he had in Week 2 then he will be a solid start.

From RotoBaller

Lamar Jackson Sep 20 9:30pm CT
Lamar Jackson

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson remains one of the best fantasy quarterbacks despite leading the team to a 0-2 record so far. The two-time MVP will take a team in desperation mode to face off against the Dallas Cowboys who are fresh off of a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys are currently 11th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and one of the worst against the run thus far. Jackson had a down week against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2 and still finished as the QB9. Overall, he's sitting at QB6 and will look to guide the team to their first win of the season. Fantasy managers can continue to confidently deploy him in their lineups, as he remains in QB1 territory until further notice.

From RotoBaller

Zach Charbonnet Sep 20 9:30pm CT
Zach Charbonnet

Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet is a mid-range RB2 once again this week. With starting running back Kenneth Walker III (oblique) slated to miss his second straight game, Charbonnet is in line for another massive workload. Charbonnet has been pretty ineffective as a runner. He is only averaging 2.3 yards per carry this season. However, Charbonnet has been very involved in the passing game. He has caught seven passes for 60 yards and a touchdown. Most of Charbonnet's value is coming from touchdowns or receptions. He may have another inefficient day on the ground, but he should have a solid floor to do his receptions. The Seahawks should also find themselves near the goal line in this game which would afford Charbonnet easy chances to score. Charbonnet had 19 opportunities in Week 2. Any running back seeing that kind of volume is a lineup lock.

From RotoBaller

Christian Kirk Sep 20 9:23pm CT
Christian Kirk

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Christian Kirk has seven total targets in the first two games, and QB Trevor Lawrence called Kirk's lack of involvement in the offense unacceptable. 'Got to get him going this week, and I've got a lot of trust and faith that it will get going this week,' Lawrence said.

Fantasy Spin: To be fair, Jacksonville's passing game has left a lot to be desired overall, but Kirk seems to have fallen to third in the wide receiver pecking order. Lawrence may look his way more often, but there is no reason to gamble on that happening in Week 3.

From TheHuddle